• 제목/요약/키워드: Probability Item

검색결과 102건 처리시간 0.03초

시간에 따라 변하며 추계적 수요를 갖는 다단계 재고시스템의 확률 분포에 관한 연구 (Some Probability Distributions for a Multi-echelon Inventory System with Time-varying, stochastic Demands)

  • 김지승
    • 산업경영시스템학회지
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    • 제18권36호
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    • pp.113-120
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    • 1995
  • Much of the past work regarding repairable item stockage has concentrated on the development of models and policies for systems in steady state. However, there are important situations in which the transient behavior is most important. A dramatic example of this is the potential dynamic behavior exhibited by demands and service in the deployment of an Air Force squadron at the onset of a conflict. The purpose of this paper is to derive some probability distributions necessary for providing an integrated approach for a multi-echelon inventory system with nonstationary demands and service rates.

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Empirical modelling approaches to modelling failures

  • Baik, Jaiwook;Jo, Jinnam
    • International Journal of Reliability and Applications
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    • 제14권2호
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    • pp.107-114
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    • 2013
  • Modelling of failures is an important element of reliability modelling. Empirical modelling approach suitable for complex item is explored in this paper. First step of the empirical modelling approach is to plot hazard function, density function, Weibull probability plot as well as cumulative intensity function to see which model fits best for the given data. Next step of the empirical modelling approach is select appropriate model for the data and fit the parametric model accordingly and estimate the parameters.

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Analysis of Multi-Level Inventory Distribution System for an Item with Low Level of Demand

  • Lee, Jin-Seok;Yoon, Seung-Chul
    • 산업경영시스템학회지
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    • 제23권60호
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    • pp.11-22
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    • 2000
  • The main objective of this research is to analyze an order point and an order quantity of a distribution center and each branch to attain a target service level in multi-level inventory distribution system. In case of product item, we use the item with low volume of average monthly demand. Under the continuous review method, the distribution center places a particular order quantity to an outside supplier whenever the level of inventory reaches an order point, and receives the order quantity after elapsing a certain lead time. Also, each branch places an order quantity to the distribution center whenever the level of inventory reaches an order point, and receives the quantity after elapsing a particular lead time. When an out of stock condition occurs, we assume that the item is backordered. For considering more realistic situations, we use generic type of probability distribution of lead times. In the variable lead time model, the actually achieved service level is estimated as the expected service level. Therefore, this study focuses on the analysis of deciding the optimal order point and order quantity to achieve a target service level at each depot as a expected service level, while the system-wide inventory level is minimized. In addition, we analyze the order level as a maximum level of inventory to suggest more efficient way to develop the low demand item model.

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로지스틱 함수를 갖는 생산공정에 대한 최적공정평균 및 스크리닝 한계선의 결정 (Determination of Optimal Mean Value and Screening Limit for a Production Process with Logistic Function)

  • 홍성훈
    • 대한산업공학회지
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    • 제29권3호
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    • pp.239-246
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    • 2003
  • Individual items are produced continuously from an industrial process. Each item is checked to determine whether it satisfies a lower screening limit for the quality characteristic which is the weight of an expensive ingredient. If it does, it is sold at a regular price; if it does not, it is reprocessed or sold at a reduced price. The process mean may be adjusted to a higher value in order to reduce the proportion of the nonconforming items. Using a higher process mean, however, may result in a higher production cost. In this paper, the optimal process mean and lower screening limit are determined in situations where the probability that an item functions well is given by a logistic function of the quality characteristic. Profit models are constructed which involve four price/cost components; selling prices, cost from an accepted nonconforming item, and reprocessing and inspection costs. Methods of finding the optimal process mean and lower screening limit are presented and numerical examples are given.

Computer Adaptive Testing Method for Measuring Disability in Patients With Back Pain

  • Choi, Bongsam
    • 한국전문물리치료학회지
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    • 제19권3호
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    • pp.124-131
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    • 2012
  • Most conventional instruments measuring disability rely on total score by simply adding individual item responses, which is dependent on the items chosen to represent the underlying construct (test-dependent) and a test statistic, such as coefficient alpha for the estimate of reliability, varying from sample to sample (sample-dependent). By contrast, item response theory (IRT) method focuses on the psychometric properties of the test items instead of the instrument as a whole. By estimating probability that a respondent will select a particular rating for an item, item difficulty and person ability (or disability) can be placed on same linear continuum. These estimates are invariant regardless of the item used (test-free measurement) and the ability of sample applied (sample-free measurement). These advantages of IRT allow the creation of invariantly calibrated large item banks that precisely discriminate the disability levels of individuals. Computer adaptive testing (CAT) method often requiring a testing algorithm promise a means for administering items in a way that is both efficient and precise. This method permits selectively administering items that are closely matched to the ability level of individuals (measurement precision) and measuring the ability without the loss of precision provided by the full item bank (measurement efficiency). These measurement properties can reasonably be achieved using IRT and CAT method. This article aims to investigate comprehensive overview of the existing disability instrument for back pain and to inform physical therapists of an alternative innovative way overcoming the shortcomings of conventional disability instruments. An understanding of IRT and CAT method will equip physical therapist with skills in interpreting the measurement properties of disability instruments developed using the methods.

Gender Differences in Items of the Instrumental Activities of Daily Living in Mild Cognitive Impairment and Alzheimer's Disease Dementia

  • Hui Jin Ryu;Yeonsil Moon
    • 대한치매학회지
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    • 제23권2호
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    • pp.107-114
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    • 2024
  • Background and Purpose: Each item in the instrumental activities of daily living (IADL) questionnaire has differential importance to an individual's life functioning based on gender. However, IADL has mostly been utilized for its total score alone, without gender specificity. We identify the impact of each item on the transition from amnestic mild cognitive impairment (aMCI) to Alzheimer's disease dementia (ADD), and determine if the impact of each item differs by gender. Methods: Subjects were aMCI or ADD with a global clinical dementia rating of 0.5 or 1. The sample size was 146 men and 154 women. We used logistic regression analysis to determine the effect of each item of IADL on the transition from aMCI to ADD. Results: The odds ratio (OR) for "remembering recent events" had similar values: 27.2 for men, and 27.7 for women. Gender difference was identified in the item with the highest OR value. For women, the "using transportation" item was 63.3, and for men, "conducting financial affairs" was overwhelmingly high at 89.1. Conclusions: Functional decline on items with relatively higher ORs may indicate higher probability of a transition from aMCI to ADD. The OR of "conducting financial affairs" was relatively higher for both genders. In terms of gender differences, "conducting home repair" for men, and "using transportation" for women, have relatively higher impact. This study demonstrates that during the transition from aMCI to ADD, each item of IADL shows a staggered decline in functioning, and that this decline is gender-specific.

다항분류상 편의에 관한 연구 (A Note on the Bias in the Multi-nomial Classification)

  • 윤용운
    • 산업경영시스템학회지
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    • 제1권1호
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    • pp.45-48
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    • 1978
  • If two inspectors classify items in a lot into m classes, it is possible that each of them makes wrong classification in some cases, thus causing bias. Expressions have been obtained for the limits of this bias in estimating the proportion of the different classes. From the results of the classification they obtained limit for the estimates of Proportions have been worked out, based on assumption regarding the magnitudes of probabilities of misclassification. Now we suppose that $P_{ti}{\;}(t=1.2)$ is the probability that t the inspector classifies correctly an item in class $A_i$ and $q_{tji}$ is the probability that he misclassifies in $A_j$ an item actually belonging to $A_i$, therefor, $P_{ti}+ \sum\limits_{j{\neq}i}q_{tji}=1$ An estimate for the proportion $P_k$ of the class $A_k$ in the lot would be $\hat{P}_k=r_{kk}+(\frac{1}{2})\sum\limits_{j{\neq}k}r_{kj}+r_{jk}$ The % Bias in proportion $\hat{P}_k$ is $\frac{E(\hat{P}_k)-P_k}{P_k}{\times}100$

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국내 가스 사고사례 중 NG 및 LPG의 가스 화재.폭발사고 예측시스템 구축에 관한 연구 (Study on Prediction System Construction of Fire.Explosion Accident by NG & LPG among Domestic Gas Accidents)

  • 고재선;김효
    • 한국가스학회지
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    • 제10권1호
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    • pp.48-55
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    • 2006
  • 한국적 상황에 적절한 사회적 위험기준을 제시하고, 도시가스시설에 대한 화재 및 폭발사고에 대한 포괄적이고 정량적인 예측프로그램을 만들기 위하여 최근 11년간의 가스사고 데이터베이스를 분석하였다. 동종유형의 가스사고 발생가능성을 판단할 수 있는 Poisson분석 방법을 적용한 결과(t=5년), 시공 작업 부주의-폭발-배관의 항목의 사고발생반도가 가장 작았으며, 배관연결부이완부식-누출-배관의 경우는 가장 높은 빈도를 나타내었다. 따라서 이에 대한 적절한 가스사고 대응책이 마련되어야 할 것이다 향후 가스사고에 대한 신뢰성 있는 분석을 위해서는 가스로 인한 화재 폭발사고에 대한 데이터베이스를 지속적으로 확충보완을 시켜야 되며, 이를 위한 표준 코드화 작업이 요구된다.

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문항반응이론을 이용한 컴포넌트 기반의 U-러닝 시스템 (The Component based U-Learning System using Item Response Theory)

  • 정화영
    • 인터넷정보학회논문지
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    • 제8권6호
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    • pp.127-133
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    • 2007
  • u-러닝 환경은 수 없이 많은 단계를 거쳐 발전되어 왔으며, 현재에는 학습자의 학습 결과 분석과 양적인 사용, 질적인 평가 등을 통하여 정립되고 있다. 일반적으로 개선된 학습 효과와 학습자의 학습 결과분석을 위하여 대부분의 학습 시스템이 문항분석방법을 이용되고 있다. 그러나 오늘날 학습 시스템은 문항분석이론 대신에 문항반응이론을 사용하고 있다. 문항분석이론은 시험에 대한 각각의 가능한 응답에 대한 확률을 위해 명확한 모델을 제시한다. 따라서 본 연구에서는 문항반응이론을 이용한 경량 컴포넌트 기반의 u-러닝 시스템을 제시하고자 한다. u-러닝에 적용된 기기는 윈도우 모바일 5.0 환경의 PDA로 하였다.

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제품(製品) 수명(壽命) 시험(試驗)의 응용(應用)과 확장(擴張) (Expansions and Applications of Item Life-time Testing)

  • 이창호
    • 품질경영학회지
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    • 제11권1호
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    • pp.10-17
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    • 1983
  • 본 연구에서는 제품의 수명시험을 수행하는데 있어서 수명이 지수분포를 따를 때의 결과를 [1]제품의 MTBF가 $T_1$인 경우, 검사에 통과될 확률 $1-{\alpha}$(${\alpha}$는 생산자 위험), 제품의 MTBF가 $T_2$인 ($T_1$ > $T_2$) 경우, 검사에 통과될 확률 ${\beta}$(${\beta}$는 소비자 위험)로 하여 수명이 Weibull 분포(Shape Parameter를 알고 있을 때)를 따를 때에로 확장하였다. 또한, 수명시험과 관계있는 검사특성곡선(QC curve)과 평균수명시험시간(Average Life Testing Time)을 구해 보았다. 비용분석은 [1]의 과정을 그대로 활용하였다. 위의 전 과정은 Level II Basic Language로 Programming하여 Micro-Computer를 이용하여 계산하였다. 본 연구와는 다른 관점에서 Weibull 분포의 수명시험계획을 다루었던 [6]의 결과는 모두 같은 방향 - 지수분포에 비해 수명시험시간의 절감 - 으로 귀결되었음을 알 수 있다.

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