• 제목/요약/키워드: Probability Factor

검색결과 1,014건 처리시간 0.027초

Response modification factor and seismic fragility assessment of skewed multi-span continuous concrete girder bridges

  • Khorraminejad, Amir;Sedaghati, Parshan;Foliente, Greg
    • Earthquakes and Structures
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    • 제20권4호
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    • pp.389-403
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    • 2021
  • Skewed bridges, being irregular structures with complicated dynamic behavior, are more susceptible to earthquake damage. Reliable seismic-resistant design of skewed bridges can be achieved by accurate determination of nonlinear seismic demands. However, the effect of geometric characteristics on the response modification factor (R-factor) is not accounted for in bridge design practices. This study attempts to investigate the effects of changes in the number of spans, skew angle and bearing stiffness on R-factor values and to assess the seismic fragility of skewed bridges. Results indicated that changes in the skew angle had no significant effect on R-factor values which were in consonance with code-prescribed R values. Also, unlike the increase in the number of spans that resulted in a decrease in the R-factor, the increase in bearing stiffness led to higher R-factor values. Findings of the fragility analysis implied that although the increase in the number of spans, as well as the increase in the skew angle, led to a higher failure probability, greater values of bearing stiffness reduced the collapse probability. For practicing design engineers, it is recommended that maximum demands on substructure elements to be calculated when the excitation angle is applied along the principal axes of skewed bridges.

Independent Testing in Marshall and Olkin's Bivariate Exponential Model Using Fractional Bayes Factor Under Bivariate Type I Censorship

  • Cho, Kil-Ho;Cho, Jang-Sik;Choi, Seung-Bae
    • Journal of the Korean Data and Information Science Society
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    • 제19권4호
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    • pp.1391-1396
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    • 2008
  • In this paper, we consider two components system which the lifetimes have Marshall and Olkin's bivariate exponential model with bivariate type I censored data. We propose a Bayesian independent test procedure for above model using fractional Bayes factor method by O'Hagan based on improper prior distributions. And we compute the fractional Bayes factor and the posterior probabilities for the hypotheses, respectively. Also we select a hypothesis which has the largest posterior probability. Finally a numerical example is given to illustrate our Bayesian testing procedure.

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확률론적 방법을 적용한 콘크리트 구조물의 염해 내구성 설계에 관한 연구 (A study on Probability-based Durability Design of Concrete Structures subjected to Chloride Attack)

  • 김원동;송하원;변근주;백승우
    • 한국콘크리트학회:학술대회논문집
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    • 한국콘크리트학회 2005년도 봄학술 발표회 논문집(II)
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    • pp.161-164
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    • 2005
  • A probability-based durability design which minimizes the uncertainties on durability parameters of concrete is proposed for reinforced concrete structures subjected to chloride attack. The uncertainties of various factors such as water-cement ratio, curing temperature, age of concrete and the variation of these factors which affect chloride ion diffusion are considered. For the durability design, a probability-distribution function for each factor is obtained and a program which combines Fick's 2nd law and Monte Carlo simulation is developed. The durability design method proposed in this study considers probability of durability limit and probability of the concentration of chloride ion, so that the probability-based deterioration prediction is possible.

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항만수로의 정량적인 충돌확률 분석 (A Quantitative Collision Probability Analysis in Port Waterway)

  • 정중식;김광일;박계각
    • 한국지능시스템학회논문지
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    • 제22권3호
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    • pp.373-378
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    • 2012
  • 해상에서 위험성평가는 해양사고예방의 관점에서 안전한 항만수로를 설계하는데 중요한 역할을 하고 있다. 본 연구는 IALA에서 권고하는 정량적인 충돌확률분석방법인 IWRAP(IALA Waterway Risk Assessment)에 기초를 두고 목포항 진입수로의 충돌위험성을 분석하였다. 과거 AIS 및 레이더의 기록 데이터를 IWRAP 평가도구에 적용함으로써 선박의 조우상태별 충돌위험 확률을 계산하였다. 항로의 구간별로 위험도를 제공함으로써, VTS에서 섹터 관제의 관점에서 항로구간별로 해상교통의 특징과 개선책을 세우는데 기여할 것으로 사료된다.

LNG탱크 겹침용접부의 피로강도에 관한 연구 (A Study on the Fatigue Strength of Lap Weld of LNG Tank)

  • 김종호
    • 한국해양공학회지
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    • 제13권3호통권33호
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    • pp.29-35
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    • 1999
  • At the design of Mark III membrane type LNG tank, an analytical and experimental approach on the fatigue strengths of membrane and its welds are very important in order to assist designers and surveyors. In this study, fatigue tests of lap weld of Mark III membrane type LNG tank were carried out and cumulative damage factor was calculated in order to estimate the fatigue life by probability density function and rule methods. It contained the following tests and reviews : 1) The fatigue tests of lap weld of stainless steel according to statistical testing method recommended by JSME, 2)Preparation of S-N curve for lap welds considering the statistical properties of the results of fatigue tests. 3) Procedure for estimating the initiation life of fatigue crack of lap welds under variable loads by the rule lf classification society and probability density function, 4) Guideline for inspection of lap welds fo membrane type LNG tank.

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확장된 근사 알고리즘을 이용한 조합 방법 (Rule of Combination Using Expanded Approximation Algorithm)

  • 문원식
    • 디지털산업정보학회논문지
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    • 제9권3호
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    • pp.21-30
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    • 2013
  • Powell-Miller theory is a good method to express or treat incorrect information. But it has limitation that requires too much time to apply to actual situation because computational complexity increases in exponential and functional way. Accordingly, there have been several attempts to reduce computational complexity but side effect followed - certainty factor fell. This study suggested expanded Approximation Algorithm. Expanded Approximation Algorithm is a method to consider both smallest supersets and largest subsets to expand basic space into a space including inverse set and to reduce Approximation error. By using expanded Approximation Algorithm suggested in the study, basic probability assignment function value of subsets was alloted and added to basic probability assignment function value of sets related to the subsets. This made subsets newly created become Approximation more efficiently. As a result, it could be known that certain function value which is based on basic probability assignment function is closely near actual optimal result. And certainty in correctness can be obtained while computational complexity could be reduced. by using Algorithm suggested in the study, exact information necessary for a system can be obtained.

Treatment of non-resonant spatial self-shielding effect of double heterogeneous region

  • Tae Young Han;Hyun Chul Lee
    • Nuclear Engineering and Technology
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    • 제55권2호
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    • pp.749-755
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    • 2023
  • A new approximation method was proposed for treating the non-resonant spatial self-shielding effects of double heterogeneous region such as the double heterogeneous effect of VHTR fuel compact in the thermal energy range and that of BP compact with BISO. The method was developed based on the effective homogenization method and a spherical unit cell model with explicit coated layers and a matrix layer. The self-shielding factor was derived from the relation between the collision probabilities for a double heterogeneous compact and the effective cross section for the homogenized compact. First, the collision probabilities and transmission probabilities for all layers of the spherical model were calculated using conventional collision probability solver. Then, the effective cross section for the homogenized sphere cell representing the homogenized compact was obtained from the transmission probability calculated using the probability density function of a chord length. The verification calculations revealed that the proposed method can predict the self-shielding factor with a maximum error of 2.3% and the double heterogeneous effect with a maximum error of 200 pcm in the typical VHTR problems with various packing fractions and BP compact sizes.

Uniform Fractional Band CAC Scheme for QoS Provisioning in Wireless Networks

  • Rahman, Md. Asadur;Chowdhury, Mostafa Zaman;Jang, Yeong Min
    • Journal of Information Processing Systems
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    • 제11권4호
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    • pp.583-600
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    • 2015
  • Generally, the wireless network provides priority to handover calls instead of new calls to maintain its quality of service (QoS). Because of this QoS provisioning, a call admission control (CAC) scheme is essential for the suitable management of limited radio resources of wireless networks to uphold different factors, such as new call blocking probability, handover call dropping probability, channel utilization, etc. Designing an optimal CAC scheme is still a challenging task due to having a number of considerable factors, such as new call blocking probability, handover call dropping probability, channel utilization, traffic rate, etc. Among existing CAC schemes such as, fixed guard band (FGB), fractional guard channel (FGC), limited fractional channel (LFC), and Uniform Fractional Channel (UFC), the LFC scheme is optimal considering the new call blocking and handover call dropping probability. However, this scheme does not consider channel utilization. In this paper, a CAC scheme, which is termed by a uniform fractional band (UFB) to overcome the limitations of existing schemes, is proposed. This scheme is oriented by priority and non-priority guard channels with a set of fractional channels instead of fractionizing the total channels like FGC and UFC schemes. These fractional channels in the UFB scheme accept new calls with a predefined uniform acceptance factor and assist the network in utilizing more channels. The mathematical models, operational benefits, and the limitations of existing CAC schemes are also discussed. Subsequently, we prepared a comparative study between the existing and proposed scheme in terms of the aforementioned QoS related factors. The numerical results we have obtained so far show that the proposed UFB scheme is an optimal CAC scheme in terms of QoS and resource utilization as compared to the existing schemes.

Modified View Factor를 이용한 인공위성 분자오염 역류확률 예측법 (An efficient method using the modified view factor for estimating the molecular backscattering probability in the space conditions)

  • 이진원;이재달;이민영;한동인;이창호;이상률
    • 한국항공우주학회지
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    • 제33권4호
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    • pp.57-62
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    • 2005
  • 인공위성의 outgassing 분자에 대한 역류오염 해석에는 BGK 또는 DSMC 등의 방법이 사용되어 왔으나, 이들은 해석이 복잡하고 시간이 오래 걸리는 등의 비효율성이 문제이다. 본 논문에서는 분자들의 충돌간 평균자유행로가 위성체의 크기에 비해 매우 길고, 동시에 위성체의 속도가 분자들의 열속도보다 매우 크다는 점을 이용하여, 간단한 근사모델을 도입함으로써 일반적인 view factor 법과 비슷한 편리성과 간편성을 가지면서 DSMC법과 정확하게 일치하는 결과를 주는 modified view factor 법을 개발, 제안한다.

Dynamic Probabilistic Caching Algorithm with Content Priorities for Content-Centric Networks

  • Sirichotedumrong, Warit;Kumwilaisak, Wuttipong;Tarnoi, Saran;Thatphitthukkul, Nattanun
    • ETRI Journal
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    • 제39권5호
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    • pp.695-706
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    • 2017
  • This paper presents a caching algorithm that offers better reconstructed data quality to the requesters than a probabilistic caching scheme while maintaining comparable network performance. It decides whether an incoming data packet must be cached based on the dynamic caching probability, which is adjusted according to the priorities of content carried by the data packet, the uncertainty of content popularities, and the records of cache events in the router. The adaptation of caching probability depends on the priorities of content, the multiplication factor adaptation, and the addition factor adaptation. The multiplication factor adaptation is computed from an instantaneous cache-hit ratio, whereas the addition factor adaptation relies on a multiplication factor, popularities of requested contents, a cache-hit ratio, and a cache-miss ratio. We evaluate the performance of the caching algorithm by comparing it with previous caching schemes in network simulation. The simulation results indicate that our proposed caching algorithm surpasses previous schemes in terms of data quality and is comparable in terms of network performance.