• Title/Summary/Keyword: Probability Evaluation

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A Comparison of Landscape Evaluation between the Internet and Slide Method (인터넷과 슬라이드를 이용한 경관평가방법의 비교)

  • Huh, Joon
    • Journal of the Korean Institute of Landscape Architecture
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    • v.29 no.5
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    • pp.20-27
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    • 2001
  • The purpose of this study is to investigate and compare the validity and the reliability of the visual simulation method using the internet. For this. the evaluation of the artificial and natural landscape through the medium of color slides are compared with the internet survey. Data is analysed through the comparison of t-test between the two media by landscape type, and spatial image is analysed by factor analysis algorithm. Principle component analysis using Varimax Method is applied for extraction and factor rotation respectively. The results of this study can be summarized as follows; There are no statistical differences between the two methods with artificial and natural landscape in the total data that included second tests. Factors covering the spatial image are found to be \`aesthetic\`, \`spatial shape\`, and \`familiarity\`. Total variance is obtained as 66.4%. There are no statistical differences between the two methods in 2/3 of the cases. In the case of far view of artificial landscape, the results of the t-test show that the two methods are exactly the same. Especially in the case of the artificial far landscape shows no difference of all factors between two methods. There are no differences between first and second tests of the same media and the same landscape type. And it shows the reliability of this method. These results suggest that the probability that the internet can be used as a medium of landscape evaluation and gathering information on anyone\`s landscape image. Simulation techniques with the internet survey method should be further developed for practical application.

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Probabilistic Damage Mechanics Assessment of Wall-Thinned Nuclear Piping Using Reliability Method and Monte-Carlo Simulation (신뢰도지수 및 몬데카를로 시뮬레이션을 이용한 원전 감육배관의 확률론적 손상역학 평가)

  • Lee Sang-Min;Yun Kang-Ok;Chang Yoon-Suk;Choi Jae-Boong;Kim Young-Jin
    • Transactions of the Korean Society of Mechanical Engineers A
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    • v.29 no.8 s.239
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    • pp.1102-1108
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    • 2005
  • The integrity of nuclear piping systems has to be maintained sufficiently all the times during operation. In order to maintain the integrity, reliable assessment procedures including fracture mechanics analysis, etc, are required. Up to now, the integrity assessment has been performed using conventional deterministic approach even though there are lots of uncertainties to hinder a rational evaluation. In this respect, probabilistic approach is considered as an appropriate method for piping system evaluation. The objectives of this paper are to develop a probabilistic assessment program using reliability index and simulation technique and to estimate the damage probability of wall-thinned pipes in secondary systems. The probabilistic assessment program consists of three evaluation modules which are first order reliability method, second order reliability method and Monte Carlo simulation method. The developed program has been applied to evaluate damage probabilities of wall-thinned pipes subjected to internal pressure, global bending moment and combined loading. The sensitivity analysis results as well as prototypal evaluation results showed a promising applicability of the probabilistic integrity assessment program.

A Study on Dry Bulkers' Optimal Deadweight and Speed under Certain Available Cargo Lot Sizes (선적화물량에 따른 살적화물선의 최적적화중량준 및 속력의 결정에 관한 연구)

  • 이명진
    • Journal of the Korean Institute of Navigation
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    • v.8 no.1
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    • pp.17-48
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    • 1984
  • The economy of ship's size and speed is affected by the freight rates, sailing distances, cargo handling rates, fuel oil prices and even interest rates of the borrowed funds. It can be a step more powerful measures if the economic evaluation model takes in a cargo lot size which prevails in the shipping markets. This paper has dealt with hypothetical cargo lots which happen to the market with uniform distribution in probability. The evaluation models are either profit maximization method or cost minimization method. The former compares among different voyages in profitability to the invested funds, the later defines the transportation efficiency in ton-mile unit and be used in comparing two or more transportation means. This paper adopted both of above methods to derive out ships economical evaluation contours for the various ship's speed and deadweight for certain cargo lot sizes, which can be used as important managerial decision data in purchasing ships or selecting a most profitable one among the proposed voyages. This evaluation contours will also be efficiently used in appraising so called "handy size ships" in connection with port water depth and conditions of voyage tracks.ge tracks.

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Application of Economic Risk Measures for a Comparative Evaluation of Less and More Mature Nuclear Reactor Technologies

  • Andrianov, A.A.;Andrianova, O.N.;Kuptsov, I.S.;Svetlichny, L.I.;Utianskaya, T.V.
    • Journal of Nuclear Fuel Cycle and Waste Technology(JNFCWT)
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    • v.16 no.4
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    • pp.431-439
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    • 2018
  • Less mature nuclear reactor technologies are characterized by a greater uncertainty due to insufficient detailed design information, operational data, cost information, etc., but the expected performance characteristics of less mature options are usually more attractive in comparison with more mature ones. The greater uncertainty is, the higher economic risks associated with the project realization will be. Within a comparative evaluation of less and more mature nuclear reactor technologies, it is necessary to apply economic risk measures to balance judgments regarding the economic performance of less and more mature options. Assessments of any risk metrics involve calculating different characteristics of probability distributions of associated economic performance indicators and applying the Monte-Carlo method. This paper considers the applicability of statistical risk measures for different economic performance indicators within a trial case study on a comparative evaluation of less and more mature unspecified LWRs. The presented case study demonstrates the main trends associated with the incorporation of economic risk metrics into a comparative evaluation of less and more mature nuclear reactor technologies.

A Study on the Safety Operation and Evaluation of Unconventional Oil Plant (비전통오일 시설물의 안전성 운용확보 및 평가에 관한 연구)

  • Jin-Woo Jung;Young-Woo Na;Neung-Won Yang
    • Journal of the Korean Recycled Construction Resources Institute
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    • v.11 no.4
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    • pp.576-581
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    • 2023
  • In this study aims to provide operational guidelines based on risk assessment and safety evaluation in the operation of non-traditional oil production plants, serving as alternative resources in comparison to conventional oils within the construction sector. Presently, operational facilities within these plants are active. However, integrating comprehensive management through sectional and device-specific diagnostic and evaluation systems in similar platform-based operational management systems proves to be a challenging reality. Consequently, this research introduces an evaluation methodology tailored for an operation-centric management system using an integrated management approach, and evaluates its practical applicability within the construction field.

Examples of NCS-based Learning Assessment: For the College of Radiotechnology (NCS 기반 학습평가 사례: 전문대학 방사선과 학생들을 대상으로)

  • Park, Jeongkyu
    • Journal of the Korean Society of Radiology
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    • v.13 no.3
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    • pp.407-414
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    • 2019
  • Recently, after the reorganization as the basis of NCS education, various learning methods are being sought for improving the basic occupational ability and job ability required by NCS, and the evaluation method accordingly is urgently needed. The purpose of this study was to evaluate the applicability of meta-cognitive learning and Havruta learning as evaluation cases in order to improve the job skills and basic skills required in the NCS curriculum. As a result, the meta-cognitive learning response sample statistic showed an average of 2.6883 when the pre-meta-cognitive learning questionnaire was a 5-point scale, and an average of 4.2468 after the meta-cognitive learning questionnaire. The correlation coefficient was 0.782 and the significance probability was 0.045. In the case of the Havruta learning correspondence sample statistic, the average of 3.1515 when the preliminary Havruta learning questionnaire was a 5 point scale and the average of the post-Havruta learning questionnaire was 4.3853, which was improved by 1.23 points. The correlation coefficient was 0.631 and the significance probability was 0.049. Meta-cognitive learning and Havruta learning were found to be correlated. The mean of meta cognition was 3.4675 and the mean of Havruta was 3.7684. Metacognitive learning and Havruta learning were -0.042 And there was no statistically significant difference. Therefore, the learning method to improve the job ability should be applied considering the characteristics of the subject.

Study on Tumor Control Probability and Normal Tissue Complication Probability in 3D Conformal Radiotherapy (방사선 입체조형치료에 대한 종양치유확율과 정상조직손상확율에 관한 연구)

  • 추성실
    • Progress in Medical Physics
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    • v.9 no.4
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    • pp.227-245
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    • 1998
  • A most appropriate model of 3-D conformal radiotherapy has been induced by clinical evaluation and animal study, and therapeutic gains were evaluated by numerical equation of tumor control probability(TCP) and normal tissue complication probability (NTCP). The radiation dose to the tumor and the adjacent normal organs was accurately evaluated and compared using the dose volume histogram(DVH). The TCP and NTCP was derived from the distribution of given dosage and irradiated volume, and these numbers were used as the biological index for the assessment of the treatment effects. Ten patients with liver disease have been evaluated and 3 dogs were sacrificed for this study. Based on the 3-D images of the tumor and adjacent organs, the optimum radiation dose and the projection direction which could maximize the radiation effect while minimizing the effects to the adjacent organs could be decided. 3). The most effective collimation for the normal adjacent organs was made through the beams eye view with the use of multileaf collimator. When the dose was increased from 50Gy to 70Gy, the TCP for the conventional 2-port radiation and the 5-port multidimensional therapy was 0.982 and 0.995 respectively, while the NTCP was 0.725 and 0.142 respectively, suggesting that the 3-D conformal radiotherapy might be the appropriate therapy to apply sufficient radiation dose to the tumor while minimizing the damages to the normal areas of the liver. Positive correlation was observed between the NTCP and the actual complication of the normal liver in the animal study. The present study suggest that the use of 3-D conformal radiotherapy and the application of the mathematical models of TCP and NTCP may provide the improvements in the treatment of hepatoma with enhanced results.

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Performance Evaluation Model for Future Weapon Systems (미래무기체계의 성능평가모형)

  • 김의환;최규명;정창모;김종윤
    • Journal of the military operations research society of Korea
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    • v.23 no.2
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    • pp.15-24
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    • 1997
  • In this paper we suggested a performance evaluation model for future weapon systems. Weapon Performance Index(WPI) model transform the characteristics of alternatives as indices. We can easily obtain WPIs of alternatives with the model. The highest WPI recommended as the best solution. The performance elements in hierachy for future weapon systems are determined by systems engineering procedure. Priorities in hierachy can be determined through survey of experts engineering procedure. Priorities in hierachy can be determined through survey of experts and statistical analysis. Utility function is formulated as a probability model and utility score is predicted on the basis of historical data about the same category of weapon systems in the world. WPI is calculate from sum of product of priorities and utility scores. The model can be applied to trade-off analysis, cost and effectiveness analysis, war game model.

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A Study on the Adaptation of 'YURAGI theory' of Wall Covering (크로스벽재에 대한 'YURAGI이론' 적용가능성에 관한 고찰연구)

  • Park Chan-Don;Kim Byeong-Joo
    • Journal of the Korean housing association
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    • v.16 no.4
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    • pp.57-64
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    • 2005
  • The purpose of this paper is to find out and to show that the probability of the adaption of YURAGI theory of wall covering in interior design. By using personal computer, visible image of wall covering is inputted to a computer program as 'bmp' file, Windows bitmap file format, for Fourier transform. The evaluation indexes such as 'Map', 'YURAGI coefficient', 'Rest error', and 'Linearity' are defined to display the analytical result. The result of this study is shown by visual image and numerical value. As a result of this paper, we can understand that the psychological evaluations about wall coverings are different according to the YURAGI coefficient which came out by fluctuation analysis method as YURAGI theory. So, now we are able to know that the adaptation of YURAGI theory is very useful at psychological evaluation about wall covering.

Mission Effectiveness Model Applicable For Military System's Evaluation and Test Design

  • Lie, Chang-Hoon
    • Journal of Korean Institute of Industrial Engineers
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    • v.3 no.2
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    • pp.73-81
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    • 1977
  • Mission effectiveness, which is the probability of successfully completing the assigned mission, is introduced as an appropriate measure of effectiveness for a military system. The model of mission effectiveness is developed for a system which is required to carry out various types of a mission. Each mission type is characterized by the maximum allowable time that determines the success of a given mission type. A given type of a mission is successful if and only if (i) the system is available at the start of a mission and (ii) the system completes its mission within the maximum allowable duration of time that this given mission type specifies without any failure during this period. Both analytic and simulation approaches are employed. Difficulties involved in the anayticl approach are discussed. The model is proposed as a useful tool for consistent system evaluation and optimum test design.

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