• Journal of the Korean Society of Hazard Mitigation
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• v.7 no.2 s.25
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• pp.53-63
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• 2007

This study is to evaluate the probable snowfall depth by the point frequency analysis and to draw the map of probable snowfall depth in Korea. The 14 probability distributions which has been widely used in hydrologic frequency analysis are applied to the annual maximum depth of snowfall data. The parameters of each probability distribution are estimated by method of moments, maximum likelihood method and method of probability weighted moments. The estimated parameters were checked by parameter validity conditions of each assumed probability distribution. Four tests that are $X^2-test$, Kolmogorov-Smirnov test, Cramer von Mises test and probability plot correlation coefficient test are used in this study to determine the goodness of fit of the distributions. Mostly the 2-parameter gamma distribution was determined as appropriate distribution for the annual maximum new snowfall depth. The probable snowfall depth were obtained from appropriate distribution for the selected return periods and the maps of probable snowfall depth were presented. It will be useful to specify the snowfall load for the design of agricultural facilities such as vinyl house and cattle shed.

• Journal of Gastric Cancer
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• v.15 no.4
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• pp.262-269
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• 2015

Purpose: Intraabdominal abscess is one of the most common reasons for re-hospitalization after gastrectomy. This study aimed to develop a model for estimating the probability of intraabdominal abscesses that can be used during the postoperative period. Materials and Methods: We retrospectively reviewed the clinicopathological data of 1,564 patients who underwent gastrectomy for gastric cancer between 2010 and 2012. Twenty-six related markers were analyzed, and multivariate logistic regression analysis was used to develop the probability estimation model for intraabdominal abscess. Internal validation using a bootstrap approach was employed to correct for bias, and the model was then validated using an independent dataset comprising of patients who underwent gastrectomy between January 2008 and March 2010. Discrimination and calibration abilities were checked in both datasets. Results: The incidence of intraabdominal abscess in the development set was 7.80% (122/1,564). The surgical approach, operating time, pathologic N classification, body temperature, white blood cell count, C-reactive protein level, glucose level, and change in the hemoglobin level were significant predictors of intraabdominal abscess in the multivariate analysis. The probability estimation model that was developed on the basis of these results showed good discrimination and calibration abilities (concordance index=0.828, Hosmer-Lemeshow chi-statistic P=0.274). Finally, we combined both datasets to produce a nomogram that estimates the probability of intraabdominal abscess. Conclusions: This nomogram can be useful for identifying patients at a high risk of intraabdominal abscess. Patients at a high risk may benefit from further evaluation or treatment before discharge.

• Journal of the Korean Institute of Gas
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• v.24 no.4
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• pp.10-17
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• 2020

The structural reliability assessment can be used to improve the reliability in the asset integrity management of the pipeline by using a geometric variation, mechanical characteristics, load change and operating condition as evaluation factors. When evaluating structural reliability, the failure probability of the natural gas pipe is evaluated by the relationship of the resistance of the pipe material to external loads. The failure probability of the natural gas pipe due to the combined stresses such as the internal pressure, thermal stress and bending stress was evaluated by using COMREL program. When evaluating the failure probability of the natural gas pipe, a buried depth of 1.5 to 30 m, a wheel load of 2.5 to 20 ton, a temperature difference of 45℃, an operating pressure of 6.86MPa, and a soil density of 1.8 kN/㎥ were used. The failure probabilities of the natural gas pipe were evaluated by the Von-Mises stress criterion as the maximum allowable stress criterion under the combined stresses.

• Journal of the Korean Society for Aeronautical & Space Sciences
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• v.49 no.6
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• pp.521-528
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• 2021

In order to allocate an appropriate interceptor weapon to an air track for which the threat assessment has been completed, it is necessary to evaluate the suitability of engagement in consideration of the expected point of engagement. In this thesis, a method of calculating the kill probability is proposed according to the position in the engagement space using Bayesian theorem with multivariate attribute information such as relative distance, approach azimuth angle, and altitude of the air track when passing through the engagement space. As a result of the calculation, it was confirmed that the distribution form of the kill probability value for each point in the engagement space follows a multivariate normal distribution based on the optimal predicted intercepting point. It is expected to be applicable to the engagement suitability evaluation of the engagement space.

• Journal of Communications and Networks
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• v.5 no.4
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• pp.354-364
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• 2003

A general method for the evaluation of the symbol error probability (SER) of ultra wideband (UWB) systems with various kind of modulation schemes (N-PAM, M-PPM, Bi-Orthogonal), in presence of multipath channel, multiuser and strong narrowband interference, is presented. This method is shown to be able to include all the principal multiaccess techniques proposed so far for UWB, time hopping (TH), direct sequence (DS) and optical orthogonal codes (OOC). A comparison between the performance of these multiple access and modulation techniques is given, for both ideal Rake receiver and minimum mean square error (MMSE) equalizer. It is shown that for all the analyzed multiple access schemes, a Rake receiver exhibits a high error floor in presence of narrowband interference (NBI) and that the value of the error floor is in-fluenced by the spectral characteristics of the spreading code. As expected, an MMSE receiver offers better performance, representing a promising candidate for UWB systems. When the multiuser interference is dominant, all multiple access techniques exhibit similar performance under high-load conditions. If the number of users is significantly lower than the spreading factor, then DS outperforms both TH and OOC. Finally 2PPM is shown to offer better performance than the other modulation schemes in presence of multiuser interference; increasing the spreading factor is proposed as a more effective strategy for SER reduction than the use of time diversity.

• Proceedings of the KSME Conference
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• 2007.05b
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• pp.3221-3223
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• 2007

Recently, nuclear power plant companies have been extending the turbine valve test interval to reduce the potential of the reactor trip accompanied with a turbine valve test and to improve the NPP's economy through the reduction of unexpected plant trip or decreased operation. In these regards, the extension of the test interval for turbine valves was reviewed in detail. The effect on the destructive overspeed probability due to the test interval change of turbine valves is evaluated by Fault Tree Analysis(FTA) method. Even though the test interval of turbine valves is changed from 1 month to 3 months, the analysis result shows that the reliability of turbine over speed protection system meets acceptance criteria of 1.0E-4/yr. This result will be used as the technical basis on the extension of the test interval for turbine valves. In this paper, the propriety of the turbine valve test interval extension is explained through the review on the turbine valve test interval status of turbine overspeed protection system, the analysis on the annual turbine missile frequency and the probability evaluation of the destructive overspeed due to the test interval extension.

• The Journal of the Korea institute of electronic communication sciences
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• v.14 no.6
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• pp.1139-1144
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• 2019

A calibration system for diagnosing and confirming the performance of precision measuring instruments minimizes the risk of misjudgment of calibration resulted by complying with international standard requirements in order to ensure the reliability of calibration results. This paper uses a proposed calibration system suitability assessment and a guard-band technique through an analysis of uncertainty factors when it is impossible to acquire and operate high-performance equipment at a calibration laboratory, and proposes an optimized test limit output model substituting performance standards. The proposed method provides an optimized test standard to meet the quantitative evaluation criteria of the calibration system and the probability of false acceptance risk required by international standards.

• Journal of Advanced Navigation Technology
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• v.15 no.6
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• pp.977-985
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• 2011

Airborne separation assurance is a key requirement for Free Flight Airspace operations, This paper study the feasibility of airborne separation assurance for free flight Airspaces operations by evaluating the efficiency measurement models. Three qualitatively different methods are utilized; one based Ground and Air conflict probability model, other based Dynamic Density model. the other based Direct operating cost model. The evaluation is Direct Operating Cost model and Two metrics are utilized for the efficiency measurements; airborne separation assurance performed quite well in the Free Flight evaluation; (1) 2 scenario of the conflict situations are resolved; (2) The MD-80 flight peformed separation assurance and efficiency, Not only appling for geometric method algorithm is more efficiently than potential method, but also the most efficiently geometric combined method.

• Journal of the Earthquake Engineering Society of Korea
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• v.22 no.7
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• pp.401-409
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• 2018

Performance-based seismic evaluation is usually done by considering simplified models for the liquid storage tanks therefore, it is important to validate those simplified models before conducting such evaluation. The purpose of this study is to compare the seismic response results of the FSI (fluid-structure interaction) model and the simplified models for the cylindrical liquid storage tanks and to verify the applicability of the simplified models for estimating failure probability. Seismic analyses were carried out for two types of storage tanks with different aspect ratios (H/D) of 0.45 and 0.86. FSI model represents detailed 3D fluid-structure interaction model and simplified models are modeled as cantilever mass-spring model, frame type mass-spring model and shell type mass-spring model, considering impulsive and convective components. Seismic analyses were performed with modal analysis followed by time history analysis. Analysis results from all the models were verified by comparing with the results calculated by the code and literature. The results from simplified models show good agreement with the ones from detailed FSI model and calculated results from code and literature, confirming that all three types of simplified models are very valid for conducting failure probability analysis of the cylindrical liquid storage tanks.

• Safety and Health at Work
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• v.8 no.2
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• pp.206-211
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• 2017

Background: Self-reported low back pain (LBP) has been evaluated in relation to material handling lifting tasks, but little research has focused on relating quantifiable stressors to LBP at the individual level. The National Institute for Occupational Safety and Health (NIOSH) Composite Lifting Index (CLI) has been used to quantify stressors for lifting tasks. A chemical exposure can be readily used as an exposure metric or stressor for chemical risk assessment (RA). Defining and quantifying lifting nonchemical stressors and related adverse responses is more difficult. Stressor-response models appropriate for CLI and LBP associations do not easily fit in common chemical RA modeling techniques (e.g., Benchmark Dose methods), so different approaches were tried. Methods: This work used prospective data from 138 manufacturing workers to consider the linkage of the occupational stressor of material lifting to LBP. The final model used a Bayesian random threshold approach to estimate the probability of an increase in LBP as a threshold step function. Results: Using maximal and mean CLI values, a significant increase in the probability of LBP for values above 1.5 was found. Conclusion: A risk of LBP associated with CLI values > 1.5 existed in this worker population. The relevance for other populations requires further study.