• Title/Summary/Keyword: Probability Decision Model

Search Result 243, Processing Time 0.027 seconds

Financial Planning for Retirement among Paid Workers Aged 20s and 30s (20, 30대 임금근로자의 은퇴재무설계에 관한 연구)

  • Cha, Kyung-Wook;Park, Mi-Youn;Kim, Yeon-Ju
    • Journal of Families and Better Life
    • /
    • v.26 no.1
    • /
    • pp.149-163
    • /
    • 2008
  • This study examined the expectations and attitudes toward retirement, and financial planning for retirement among paid workers aged 20s and 30s. It compared paid workers' socio-economic, and retirement-related characteristics between those who had retirement planning and those who did not, and identified factors important to retirement planning decision. Data for this study were from a questionnaire completed by paid workers in age 20s and 30s (n=227), and were analyzed by t-tests, chi-square tests, and a logistic regression model. The findings of this study were as follows: First, the paid workers' expected retirement age was 56, and their ideal age for retirement was about 60. More than 85% of workers agreed that the retirement planning should begin before age 40, but just 51 % of the workers had retirement planning. Second, the workers aged 30s, married, and those who had higher incomes and home ownership were more likely to prepare financially for their retirement. Third, as their expected retirement age increased, the probability of decision to retirement planning increased. Those who expected that the economic status of retirees' living would be same as their current economic status were more likely to have retirement planning. The positive attitudes toward retirement had significant effect on the decision to have retirement planning.

The Effect of Performance Feedback on Firms' Decision to Form an International Strategic Alliance and Performance in the Korean Manufacturing Industry

  • Han, Sang-yun
    • Journal of Korea Trade
    • /
    • v.25 no.6
    • /
    • pp.57-77
    • /
    • 2021
  • Purpose - International strategic alliance has been regarded as a strategic decision made by firms' managerial problems and ensure performance growth. From the perspective of the proactive behavior for changing strategies in a global market, this study aims to identify whether performance feedback influences firms' decisions to pursue strategic alliances. This study examines the effects of performance feedback on performance when firms use strategic alliances. Design/methodology - To analyze the impact of performance feedback on forming an international strategic alliance, this study adopt the concept of performance feedback to develop a research model and our hypotheses. Thus, this study used a two-stage least squares unbalanced panel data analysis with random effects. This study is based on 24,543 observations from Korean manufacturing firms from 2007 to 2016. Findings - The results show that firms pursue the formation of strategic alliances more actively, if their past financial and R&D performance are lower than their aspiration level, based on the result of performance feedback. An in split sample analysis for examining the effect of a firm's technology sophistication based on the OECD's classification, negative innovation performance discrepancy has positive effects on the probability of international alliance in high-tech and medium-high-tech industries. Financial performance also improves when a firm decides to form a strategic alliance based on the results of performance feedback. Originality/value - This research extends recent efforts to better understand the effect of performance feedback on firms' performance when they use strategic alliances. These findings suggest that the CEOs and managers of firms should consider the performance feedback perspective when deciding to pursue a strategic alliance to improve performance. In other words, the decision-makers in a firm must analyze and consider various complex variables inside and outside the firm and expand such subjects of examination to more complex and dynamic factors.

Development of a Failure Probability Model based on Operation Data of Thermal Piping Network in District Heating System (지역난방 열배관망 운영데이터 기반의 파손확률 모델 개발)

  • Kim, Hyoung Seok;Kim, Gye Beom;Kim, Lae Hyun
    • Korean Chemical Engineering Research
    • /
    • v.55 no.3
    • /
    • pp.322-331
    • /
    • 2017
  • District heating was first introduced in Korea in 1985. As the service life of the underground thermal piping network has increased for more than 30 years, the maintenance of the underground thermal pipe has become an important issue. A variety of complex technologies are required for periodic inspection and operation management for the maintenance of the aged thermal piping network. Especially, it is required to develop a model that can be used for decision making in order to derive optimal maintenance and replacement point from the economic viewpoint in the field. In this study, the analysis was carried out based on the repair history and accident data at the operation of the thermal pipe network of five districts in the Korea District Heating Corporation. A failure probability model was developed by introducing statistical techniques of qualitative analysis and binomial logistic regression analysis. As a result of qualitative analysis of maintenance history and accident data, the most important cause of pipeline damage was construction erosion, corrosion of pipe and bad material accounted for about 82%. In the statistical model analysis, by setting the separation point of the classification to 0.25, the accuracy of the thermal pipe breakage and non-breakage classification improved to 73.5%. In order to establish the failure probability model, the fitness of the model was verified through the Hosmer and Lemeshow test, the independent test of the independent variables, and the Chi-Square test of the model. According to the results of analysis of the risk of thermal pipe network damage, the highest probability of failure was analyzed as the thermal pipeline constructed by the F construction company in the reducer pipe of less than 250mm, which is more than 10 years on the Seoul area motorway in winter. The results of this study can be used to prioritize maintenance, preventive inspection, and replacement of thermal piping systems. In addition, it will be possible to reduce the frequency of thermal pipeline damage and to use it more aggressively to manage thermal piping network by establishing and coping with accident prevention plan in advance such as inspection and maintenance.

Voice Activity Detection Based on SVM Classifier Using Likelihood Ratio Feature Vector (우도비 특징 벡터를 이용한 SVM 기반의 음성 검출기)

  • Jo, Q-Haing;Kang, Sang-Ki;Chang, Joon-Hyuk
    • The Journal of the Acoustical Society of Korea
    • /
    • v.26 no.8
    • /
    • pp.397-402
    • /
    • 2007
  • In this paper, we apply a support vector machine(SVM) that incorporates an optimized nonlinear decision rule over different sets of feature vectors to improve the performance of statistical model-based voice activity detection(VAD). Conventional method performs VAD through setting up statistical models for each case of speech absence and presence assumption and comparing the geometric mean of the likelihood ratio (LR) for the individual frequency band extracted from input signal with the given threshold. We propose a novel VAD technique based on SVM by treating the LRs computed in each frequency bin as the elements of feature vector to minimize classification error probability instead of the conventional decision rule using geometric mean. As a result of experiments, the performance of SVM-based VAD using the proposed feature has shown better results compared with those of reported VADs in various noise environments.

Predicting 30-day mortality in severely injured elderly patients with trauma in Korea using machine learning algorithms: a retrospective study

  • Jonghee Han;Su Young Yoon;Junepill Seok;Jin Young Lee;Jin Suk Lee;Jin Bong Ye;Younghoon Sul;Se Heon Kim;Hong Rye Kim
    • Journal of Trauma and Injury
    • /
    • v.37 no.3
    • /
    • pp.201-208
    • /
    • 2024
  • Purpose: The number of elderly patients with trauma is increasing; therefore, precise models are necessary to estimate the mortality risk of elderly patients with trauma for informed clinical decision-making. This study aimed to develop machine learning based predictive models that predict 30-day mortality in severely injured elderly patients with trauma and to compare the predictive performance of various machine learning models. Methods: This study targeted patients aged ≥65 years with an Injury Severity Score of ≥15 who visited the regional trauma center at Chungbuk National University Hospital between 2016 and 2022. Four machine learning models-logistic regression, decision tree, random forest, and eXtreme Gradient Boosting (XGBoost)-were developed to predict 30-day mortality. The models' performance was compared using metrics such as area under the receiver operating characteristic curve (AUC), accuracy, precision, recall, specificity, F1 score, as well as Shapley Additive Explanations (SHAP) values and learning curves. Results: The performance evaluation of the machine learning models for predicting mortality in severely injured elderly patients with trauma showed AUC values for logistic regression, decision tree, random forest, and XGBoost of 0.938, 0.863, 0.919, and 0.934, respectively. Among the four models, XGBoost demonstrated superior accuracy, precision, recall, specificity, and F1 score of 0.91, 0.72, 0.86, 0.92, and 0.78, respectively. Analysis of important features of XGBoost using SHAP revealed associations such as a high Glasgow Coma Scale negatively impacting mortality probability, while higher counts of transfused red blood cells were positively correlated with mortality probability. The learning curves indicated increased generalization and robustness as training examples increased. Conclusions: We showed that machine learning models, especially XGBoost, can be used to predict 30-day mortality in severely injured elderly patients with trauma. Prognostic tools utilizing these models are helpful for physicians to evaluate the risk of mortality in elderly patients with severe trauma.

Improving Performance of Recommendation Systems Using Topic Modeling (사용자 관심 이슈 분석을 통한 추천시스템 성능 향상 방안)

  • Choi, Seongi;Hyun, Yoonjin;Kim, Namgyu
    • Journal of Intelligence and Information Systems
    • /
    • v.21 no.3
    • /
    • pp.101-116
    • /
    • 2015
  • Recently, due to the development of smart devices and social media, vast amounts of information with the various forms were accumulated. Particularly, considerable research efforts are being directed towards analyzing unstructured big data to resolve various social problems. Accordingly, focus of data-driven decision-making is being moved from structured data analysis to unstructured one. Also, in the field of recommendation system, which is the typical area of data-driven decision-making, the need of using unstructured data has been steadily increased to improve system performance. Approaches to improve the performance of recommendation systems can be found in two aspects- improving algorithms and acquiring useful data with high quality. Traditionally, most efforts to improve the performance of recommendation system were made by the former approach, while the latter approach has not attracted much attention relatively. In this sense, efforts to utilize unstructured data from variable sources are very timely and necessary. Particularly, as the interests of users are directly connected with their needs, identifying the interests of the user through unstructured big data analysis can be a crew for improving performance of recommendation systems. In this sense, this study proposes the methodology of improving recommendation system by measuring interests of the user. Specially, this study proposes the method to quantify interests of the user by analyzing user's internet usage patterns, and to predict user's repurchase based upon the discovered preferences. There are two important modules in this study. The first module predicts repurchase probability of each category through analyzing users' purchase history. We include the first module to our research scope for comparing the accuracy of traditional purchase-based prediction model to our new model presented in the second module. This procedure extracts purchase history of users. The core part of our methodology is in the second module. This module extracts users' interests by analyzing news articles the users have read. The second module constructs a correspondence matrix between topics and news articles by performing topic modeling on real world news articles. And then, the module analyzes users' news access patterns and then constructs a correspondence matrix between articles and users. After that, by merging the results of the previous processes in the second module, we can obtain a correspondence matrix between users and topics. This matrix describes users' interests in a structured manner. Finally, by using the matrix, the second module builds a model for predicting repurchase probability of each category. In this paper, we also provide experimental results of our performance evaluation. The outline of data used our experiments is as follows. We acquired web transaction data of 5,000 panels from a company that is specialized to analyzing ranks of internet sites. At first we extracted 15,000 URLs of news articles published from July 2012 to June 2013 from the original data and we crawled main contents of the news articles. After that we selected 2,615 users who have read at least one of the extracted news articles. Among the 2,615 users, we discovered that the number of target users who purchase at least one items from our target shopping mall 'G' is 359. In the experiments, we analyzed purchase history and news access records of the 359 internet users. From the performance evaluation, we found that our prediction model using both users' interests and purchase history outperforms a prediction model using only users' purchase history from a view point of misclassification ratio. In detail, our model outperformed the traditional one in appliance, beauty, computer, culture, digital, fashion, and sports categories when artificial neural network based models were used. Similarly, our model outperformed the traditional one in beauty, computer, digital, fashion, food, and furniture categories when decision tree based models were used although the improvement is very small.

Current Status of an International Co-Operative Research Program, PARTRIDGE (Probabilistic Analysis as a Regulatory Tool for Risk-Informed Decision GuidancE) (국제공동연구 PARTRIDGE를 통한 확률론적 건전성 평가 기술 개발 현황)

  • Kim, Sun Hye;Park, Jung Soon;Kim, Jin Su;Lee, Jin Ho;Yun, Eun Sub;Yang, Jun Seog;Lee, Jae Gon;Park, Hong Sun;Oh, Young Jin;Kang, Sun Yeh;Yoon, Ki Seok;Park, Jai Hak
    • Transactions of the Korean Society of Pressure Vessels and Piping
    • /
    • v.9 no.1
    • /
    • pp.62-69
    • /
    • 2013
  • A probabilistic assessment code, PRO-LOCA ver. 3.7 which was developed in an international co-operative research program, PARTRIDGE was evaluated by conducting sensitivity analysis. The effect of some variables such as simulation methods (adaptive sampling, iteration numbers, weld residual stress model), crack features(Poisson's arrival rate, maximum numbers of cracks, initial flaw size, fabrication flaws), operating and loading conditions(temperature, primary bending stress, earthquake strength and frequency), and inspection model(inspection intervals, detectable leak rate) on the failure probabilities of a surge line nozzle was investigated. The results of sensitivity analysis shows the remaining problems of the PRO-LOCA code such as the instability of adaptive sampling and unexpected trend of failure probabilities at an early stage.

Factors Affecting Students' Decision to Select Private Universities in Vietnam

  • LE, Hung Quang
    • The Journal of Asian Finance, Economics and Business
    • /
    • v.7 no.4
    • /
    • pp.235-245
    • /
    • 2020
  • The study seeks to identify factors affecting the choice of a university by first-year Business Administration students in Vietnam. Probability sampling is using Stratified sampling of 500 students from five private universities in Ho Chi Minh City surveyed by convenience sampling. This paper employs mixed research methods - measuring Cronbach's Alpha, EFA, Regression and using PATH model - to test the hypotheses of the research model. The results of the study identify five factors: Prestige, Geographical location, Facilities, Attractiveness of the field and Media. All these factors have a positive influence on the standing of the university brand. It means that the higher the Prestige, Geographical location, Facilities, Attractiveness of the field and Media, the higher the university brand. The results indicate that Geographical location is the most influential factor to enhance the private university's brand. Bringing Geographical location is, thus, advisable to enhance a university standing. The brand plays a determining role in students' trust when selecting a university. Media is still the top concern of new students when they choose to study at a university. Media still remains an important consideration for new students when choosing a university. So, this factor should be utilized by universities to enhance their attractiveness.

Maximization in Reliability Design when Stress/Strength has Time Dependent Model of Deterministic Cycle Times

  • Oh, Chung-Hwan
    • Journal of Korean Society for Quality Management
    • /
    • v.18 no.1
    • /
    • pp.129-147
    • /
    • 1990
  • This study is to refer to the optimization problems when the stress and strength follow the time dependent model, considering a decision making process in the design methodology from reliability viewpoint. Reliability of a component can be expressed and computed if the probability distributions for the stress and strength in the time dependent case are known. The factors which determine the parameters of the distributions for stress and strength random variables can be controlled in design problems. This leads to the problem of finding the optimal values of these parameters subject to resources and design constraints. This paper is to present techniques for solving the optimization problems at the design stage like as minimizing the total cost to be spent on controlling the stress and strength parameters for random variables subject to the constraint that the component must have a specified reliability, alternatively, maximizing the component reliability subject to certain constraints on amount of resources available to control the parameters. The derived expressions and computations of reliability in the time dependent case and some optimization models of these cases are discussed. The special structure of these models is exploited to develop the optimization techniques which are illustrated by design examples.

  • PDF

Product Adoption Maximization Leveraging Social Influence and User Interest Mining

  • Ji, Ping;Huang, Hui;Liu, Xueliang;Hu, Xueyou
    • KSII Transactions on Internet and Information Systems (TIIS)
    • /
    • v.15 no.6
    • /
    • pp.2069-2085
    • /
    • 2021
  • A Social Networking Service (SNS) platform provides digital footprints to discover users' interests and track the social diffusion of product adoptions. How to identify a small set of seed users in a SNS who is potential to adopt a new promoting product with high probability, is a key question in social networks. Existing works approached this as a social influence maximization problem. However, these approaches relied heavily on text information for topic modeling and neglected the impact of seed users' relation in the model. To this end, in this paper, we first develop a general product adoption function integrating both users' interest and social influence, where the user interest model relies on historical user behavior and the seed users' evaluations without any text information. Accordingly, we formulate a product adoption maximization problem and prove NP-hardness of this problem. We then design an efficient algorithm to solve this problem. We further devise a method to automatically learn the parameter in the proposed adoption function from users' past behaviors. Finally, experimental results show the soundness of our proposed adoption decision function and the effectiveness of the proposed seed selection method for product adoption maximization.