• 대한산업공학회지
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• 제27권2호
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• pp.169-175
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• 2001

Most of studies on automated storage/retrieval (AS/R) system assumed that storage capacity is given, although it is a very important decision variable in the design phase. We propose a simple algorithm to estimate the required storage capacity, i.e., number of aisles and number of openings in vertical and horizontal directions in each aisle, of an AS/R system under stochastic demand, in which storage requests occur endogenously and exogenously while the retrieval requests occur endogenously from the machines. Two design criteria, maximum permissible overflow probability and maximum allowable storage/retrieval (S/R) machine utilization, are used to compute the storage capacity. This model can be effectively used in the design phase of new AS/R systems.

• 한국시뮬레이션학회논문지
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• 제10권3호
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• pp.71-82
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• 2001

Considering material handling delay which occurs between storage and processing stations, we propose an algorithm to estimate the required storage capacity, i.e., number of aisles and number of openings in vertical and horizontal directions in each aisle, of an automated storage/retrieval(AS/R) system. Due to the random nature of storage and retrieval requests, proportion of single and dual commands is not known in advance. Two design criteria, maximum permissible overflow probability and maximum allowable storage/retrieval(S/R) machine utilization, are used to compute the storage capacity. Most of studies assume that storage capacity of AS/R systems is given, although it is a very important decision variable in the design phase. Therefore, the proposed model can be effectively used in the design phase of new AS/R systems.

• Nuclear Engineering and Technology
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• 제54권10호
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• pp.3595-3603
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• 2022

Nuclear safety-class DCS is used for nuclear reactor protection function, which is one of the key facilities to ensure nuclear power plant safety, the maintenance for DCS to keep system in a high reliability is significant. In this paper, Nuclear safety-class DCS system developed by the Nuclear Power Institute of China is investigated, the model of reliability estimation considering nuclear power plant emergency trip control process is carried out using Markov transfer process. According to the System-Subgroup-Module hierarchical iteration calculation, the evolution curve of failure probability is established, and the preventive maintenance optimization strategy is constructed combining reliability numerical calculation and periodic overhaul interval of nuclear power plant, which could provide a quantitative basis for the maintenance decision of DCS system.

• 한국지리정보학회지
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• 제19권4호
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• pp.36-51
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• 2016

본 연구는 기후변화에 따른 도시홍수 리스크 평가를 위해 베이지안 확률통계 모형과 GIS를 연계 활용하였다. 리스크는 재난발생가능성과 영향 크기의 곱으로 평가될 수 있다. 본 연구는 베이지안 모델을 기반으로 침수발생가능성을 추정하였고, 기후변화 시나리오 정보를 반영하여 미래 침수발생가능성도 평가하였다. 침수로 발생할 수 있는 영향은 인명피해와 재산피해의 측면에서 살펴보았다. 서울시 서초구를 대상으로 분석한 결과, 현재 침수발생가능성은 하천에 인접하고, 주변지역보다 고도가 낮으며 불투수면 밀집지역인 서초동, 반포동 일대가 높게 나타났다. 미래 침수발생가능성 추정결과, 2050년의 위험지역 면적이 2030년보다 1.3배 증가하는 것으로 나타났다. 추정된 발생가능성을 활용한 리스크 평가 결과, 인명피해 리스크는 일반 및 고층 주거지역을 중심으로 높은 리스크를 보인 반면, 재산피해는 상업지역을 중심으로 리스크가 높게 나타났다. 2050년의 재산피해 리스크는 2030년의 재산피해 리스크보다 약 6.6% 증가하는 것으로 평가되었다. 본 연구에서 제안된 도시홍수 리스크 평가 기법은 상세한 공간결과 값의 제공으로 지역맞춤형 재해저감 전략을 위한 중요한 의사결정 자료로 활용될 수 있을 것으로 기대한다.

• 대한교통학회지
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• 제29권3호
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• pp.73-82
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• 2011

최근 교통상황을 정확하게 관측할 수 있는 교통류 검지에 관한 기술개발과 더불어 개별차량 주행궤적을 이용한 교통안전도 평가기법에 대한 관심이 높아지고 있다. 본 연구에서는 개별차량의 주행궤적을 이용하여 다음시점(t+1) 의 후미추돌 확률을 산출하는 방법론을 제시하였다. 신뢰성 있는 예측 기법인 칼만 필터링(Kalman Filtering)을 이용하여 주행궤적을 예측하고, 예측된 시점에 대한 개별차량의 후미추돌 확률을 산출하였다. 안전도를 평가하는 확률모형을 수립하기 위해서 서해안 고속도로의 동영상 자료로부터 개별차량의 주행궤적을 추출하였다. 추출한 개별차량의 주행궤적 자료를 이항 로지스틱 회귀분석(Binary logistic regression)을 이용하여 차량의 차로변경 결정 확률 모형을 생성하였고, exponential decay function을 이용하여 surrogate safety measure(SSM)의 하나인 time-to-collision(TTC)기반의 추돌확률 모형을 생성하였다. 미시적 교통류 시뮬레이터인 VISSIM에서 추출한 개별차량의 주행궤적 데이터를 이용하여 제안된 방법론을 평가하였다. 본 연구의 결과는 교통류 감시, 제어 및 정보 시스템에 효과적으로 적용될 수 있으며, 나아가 교통사고 예방에 효율적인 대안이 될 수 있을 것으로 판단된다.

• Nuclear Engineering and Technology
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• 제47권2호
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• pp.204-211
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• 2015

Probabilistic safety assessment (PSA) has had a significant role in quantitative decision-making by finding design and operational vulnerabilities and evaluating cost-benefit in improving such weak points. In particular, it has been widely used as the core methodology for risk-informed applications (RIAs). Even though the nature of PSA seeks realistic results, there are still "conservative" aspects. One of the sources for the conservatism is the assumptions of safety analysis and the estimation of failure frequency. Surveillance, diagnosis, and prognosis (SDP), utilizing massive databases and information technology, is worth highlighting in terms of its capability for alleviating the conservatism in conventional PSA. This article provides enabling techniques to solidify a method to provide time- and condition-dependent risks by integrating a conventional PSA model with condition monitoring and prognostics techniques. We will discuss how to integrate the results with frequency of initiating events (IEs) and probability of basic events (BEs). Two illustrative examples will be introduced: (1) how the failure probability of a passive system can be evaluated under different plant conditions and (2) how the IE frequency for a steam generator tube rupture (SGTR) can be updated in terms of operating time. We expect that the proposed model can take a role of annunciator to show the variation of core damage frequency (CDF) depending on operational conditions.

• 대한토목학회논문집
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• 제39권1호
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• pp.155-163
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• 2019

가뭄 전이는 수문학적 가뭄 특성에 대한 정확한 평가 및 조기 경보 시스템 구축에서 매우 중요한 역할을 한다. 이에 따라, 본 연구에서는 베이지안 네트워크를 이용하여 한강 유역의 가뭄 전이의 확률론적 관계를 분석하였다. 이를 위하여 과거 관측자료와 기후변화 시나리오 RCP 8.5 자료를 활용하였다. 가뭄 전이 및 지체시간을 분석한 결과, 1967~2013년 기간에 비해 2014~2053년 기간에는 증가하는 경향을 나타냈으며, 2054~2100년 기간에는 감소하는 경향을 나타냈다. 또한 베이지안 네트워크를 적용하여 지체시간의 발생확률을 분석하였다. 그 결과, 1967~2013년 동안에 기상학적 가뭄이 보통가뭄에서 심한가뭄 또는 극한가뭄으로 변화함에 따라, 지체시간의 발생빈도가 공간적으로 변화하거나 감소하였다. 이러한 확률은 2014~2053년에 몇몇 유역에서 약간 증가하는 경향이 나타났으나, 2054~2100년에 다시 감소하였다. 본 연구에서 제안된 확률론적 가뭄 전이 결과는 향후 미래 가뭄 상태에 대한 정책에서 의사결정시에 유용할 것으로 판단된다.

• 한국대기환경학회지
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• 제26권6호
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• pp.666-682
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• 2010

The forecasting system for Today's and Tomorrow's PM10 was developed based on the statistical model and the forecasting was performed at 9 AM to predict Today's 24 hour average PM10 concentration and at 5 PM to predict Tomorrow's 24 hour average PM10. The Today's forecasting model was operated based on measured air quality and meteorological data while Tomorrow's model was run by monitored data as well as the meteorological data calculated from the weather forecasting model such as MM5 (Mesoscale Meteorological Model version 5). The observed air quality data at ambient air quality monitoring stations as well as measured and forecasted meteorological data were reviewed to find the relationship with target PM10 concentrations by the regression analysis. The PM concentration, wind speed, precipitation rate, mixing height and dew-point deficit temperature were major variables to determine the level of PM10 and the wind direction at 500 hpa height was also a good indicator to identify the influence of long-range transport from other countries. The neural network, regression model, and decision tree method were used as the forecasting models to predict the class of a comprehensive air quality index and the final forecasting index was determined by the most frequent index among the three model's predicted indexes. The accuracy, false alarm rate, and probability of detection in Tomorrow's model were 72.4%, 0.0%, and 42.9% while those in Today's model were 80.8%, 12.5%, and 77.8%, respectively. The statistical model had the limitation to predict the rapid changing PM10 concentration by long-range transport from the outside of Korea and in this case the chemical transport model would be an alternative method.

• 가정과삶의질연구
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• 제26권1호
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• pp.149-163
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• 2008

This study examined the expectations and attitudes toward retirement, and financial planning for retirement among paid workers aged 20s and 30s. It compared paid workers' socio-economic, and retirement-related characteristics between those who had retirement planning and those who did not, and identified factors important to retirement planning decision. Data for this study were from a questionnaire completed by paid workers in age 20s and 30s (n=227), and were analyzed by t-tests, chi-square tests, and a logistic regression model. The findings of this study were as follows: First, the paid workers' expected retirement age was 56, and their ideal age for retirement was about 60. More than 85% of workers agreed that the retirement planning should begin before age 40, but just 51 % of the workers had retirement planning. Second, the workers aged 30s, married, and those who had higher incomes and home ownership were more likely to prepare financially for their retirement. Third, as their expected retirement age increased, the probability of decision to retirement planning increased. Those who expected that the economic status of retirees' living would be same as their current economic status were more likely to have retirement planning. The positive attitudes toward retirement had significant effect on the decision to have retirement planning.

• Journal of Korea Trade
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• 제25권6호
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• pp.57-77
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• 2021

Purpose - International strategic alliance has been regarded as a strategic decision made by firms' managerial problems and ensure performance growth. From the perspective of the proactive behavior for changing strategies in a global market, this study aims to identify whether performance feedback influences firms' decisions to pursue strategic alliances. This study examines the effects of performance feedback on performance when firms use strategic alliances. Design/methodology - To analyze the impact of performance feedback on forming an international strategic alliance, this study adopt the concept of performance feedback to develop a research model and our hypotheses. Thus, this study used a two-stage least squares unbalanced panel data analysis with random effects. This study is based on 24,543 observations from Korean manufacturing firms from 2007 to 2016. Findings - The results show that firms pursue the formation of strategic alliances more actively, if their past financial and R&D performance are lower than their aspiration level, based on the result of performance feedback. An in split sample analysis for examining the effect of a firm's technology sophistication based on the OECD's classification, negative innovation performance discrepancy has positive effects on the probability of international alliance in high-tech and medium-high-tech industries. Financial performance also improves when a firm decides to form a strategic alliance based on the results of performance feedback. Originality/value - This research extends recent efforts to better understand the effect of performance feedback on firms' performance when they use strategic alliances. These findings suggest that the CEOs and managers of firms should consider the performance feedback perspective when deciding to pursue a strategic alliance to improve performance. In other words, the decision-makers in a firm must analyze and consider various complex variables inside and outside the firm and expand such subjects of examination to more complex and dynamic factors.