• Korean Management Science Review
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• v.32 no.2
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• pp.125-143
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• 2015

When studying the film industry, researchers have seldom addressed the dynamic interaction between marketing information and word of mouth in the motion picture industry mainly because of the limitation of traditional research methodologies. This study explores integration and competition among important variables influencing on audience's choice on movie selection, particularly by using a new method of agent-based modeling including competitive environment. Decision process of moviegoer composed of transition probability based on multinomial logit model, considering marketing and box-office information, critique, and word of mouth from other moviegoers. After validating the fitness of market share among released movies, this study conducted a set of simulation experiments considering several variables such as market size, change of weight between variables, and movie performance under competition. Propositions are derived from the simulation results is also suggested for future research.

• Proceedings of the Korean Society of Computer Information Conference
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• 2018.07a
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• pp.85-86
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• 2018

최근 들어 가챠 시스템이 없는 게임을 찾기 어려울 만큼 많은 게임들이 가챠 시스템을 사용하고 있다. 그중에서도 가챠 시스템이 메인 콘텐츠라고 할 수 있을 만큼 큰 비중을 차지하고 있는 게임이 있고, 반대로 메인 콘텐츠가 따로 있어 부가적인 요소로 사용하는 게임이 있다. 본 연구에서는 현재 게임에서 사용되고 있는 가챠 시스템의 현황과 규제 및 개발사의 대안에 대해 알아보고, 이로 인해 생기는 문제점을 분석한다.

• Proceedings of the Korea Concrete Institute Conference
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• 1998.10b
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• pp.656-661
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• 1998

This paper presents a method of statistical analysis and sensitivity analysis of creep and shrinkage effects in PSC box girder bridges. The statistical and sensitivity analyses are performed by using the numerical simulation of Latin Hypercube sampling. For each sample, the time-dependent structural analysis is performed to produce response data, which are then statistically analyzed. The probabilistic prediction of the confidence limits on long-term effects of creep and shrinkage is then expressed. Three measures are examined to quantify the sensitivity of the outputs to each of the input variables. These are rank correlation coefficient(RCC), partial rank correlation coefficient(PRCC) and standardized rank regression coefficient(SRRC) computed on the ranks of the observations. Probability band widens with time, which indicates an increase of prediction uncertainty with time. The creep model uncertainty factor and the relative humidity appear as the most dominant factors with regard to the model output uncertainty.

• Proceedings of the KIEE Conference
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• 2001.07d
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• pp.2653-2655
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• 2001

In this paper, we proposed a method of modeling a system using Fuzzy Equalization(FE) and Genetic Algorithm(GA). The initial model is constructed using FE. The antecedent parameters and the rules in fuzzy logic are tuned by GA. The proposed system minimizes the modeling error and the size of structure. The process of building membership functions using PDF(Probability Density Function) and GA tunes the antecedent parameter and rules for minimizing the error and structure. The usefulness of proposed method is demonstrated by applying to Box-Jenkins furnace data.

• The Bulletin of The Korean Astronomical Society
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• v.44 no.2
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• pp.53.4-53.4
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• 2019

We reconstruct the underlying dark matter (DM) density distribution of the local universe within 20Mpc/h cubic box by using the galaxy position and peculiar velocity. About 1,000 subboxes in the Illustris-TNG cosmological simulation are used to train the relation between DM density distribution and galaxy properties by using UNet-like convolutional neural network (CNN). The estimated DM density distributions have a good agreement with their truth values in terms of pixel-to-pixel correlation, the probability distribution of DM density, and matter power spectrum. We apply the trained CNN architecture to the galaxy properties from the Cosmicflows-3 catalogue to reconstruct the DM density distribution of the local universe. The reconstructed DM density distribution can be used to understand the evolution and fate of our local environment.

• Journal of the Computational Structural Engineering Institute of Korea
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• v.23 no.2
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• pp.217-225
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• 2010

Most of the steel bridges in Korea are being currently designed by the allowable stress design method that uses the conventional deterministic factors of safety. However the limit state design based on the concept of probability, statistics and reliability engineering is becoming very popular as a global standard deign method, leading the rational and economic bridge design. As part of the fundamental research to establish the load and resistance factor design(LRFD) of steel bridges considering domestic environmental conditions and regional characteristics, an experimental design is conducted by applying AASHTO-LRFD specification especially to a steel closed-box girder, which occupies relatively a large portion of steel bridges in Korea. Throughout the experimental design according to various sectional changes, some of the issues to be considered in the LRFD design of a composite steel closed-box girder bridge are examined. In this process, an Excel-based design verification program is developed for easy computation and prevention of errors. Quantitative reliability levels of the bridge sections designed by LRFD are also estimated using a reliability analysis method, and compared with the target reliability indexes applied in the LRFD design to verify the validity of the procedure and methodology used in this study.

• KSCE Journal of Civil and Environmental Engineering Research
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• v.29 no.2A
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• pp.119-130
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• 2009

Seismic fragility curves of a structure represent the probability of exceeding the prescribed structural damage state for a given various levels of ground motion intensity such as peak ground acceleration (PGA), spectral acceleration ($S_a$) and spectral displacement ($S_d$). So those are very essential to evaluate the structural seismic performance and seismic risk. The purpose of this paper is to develop seismic fragility curves for PSC box girder bridges. In order to construct numerical fragility curve of bridge structure using nonlinear time history analysis, a set of ground motions corresponding to design spectrum are artificially generated. Assuming a lognormal distribution, the fragility curve is estimated by using the methodology proposed by Shinozuka et al. PGA is simple and generally used parameter in fragility curve as ground motion intensity. However, the PGA has not good relationship with the inelastic structural behavior. So, $S_a$ and $S_d$ with more direct relationship for structural damage are used in fragility analysis as more useful intensity measures instead of PGA. The numerical fragility curves based on nonlinear time history analysis are compared with those obtained from simple method suggested in HAZUS program.

• The Korean Journal of Applied Statistics
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• v.23 no.1
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• pp.189-196
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• 2010

It is never an easy task to physically randomize the sequence of cards. For instance, US 1970 draft lottery resulted in a social turmoil since the outcome sequence of 366 birthday numbers showed a significant relationship with the input order (Wikipedia, "Draft Lottery 1969", Retrieved 2009/05/01). We are motivated by Laplace's 1825 book titled Philosophical Essay on Probabilities that says "Suppose that the numbers 1, 2, ..., 100 are placed, according to their natural ordering, in an urn, and suppose further that, after having shaken the urn, to shuffle the numbers, one draws one number. It is clear that if the shuffling has been properly done, each number will have the same chance of being drawn. But if we fear that there are small differences between them depending on the order in which the numbers were put into the urn, we can decrease these differences considerably by placing these numbers in a second urn in the order in which they are drawn from the first urn, and then shaking the second urn to shuffle the numbers. These differences, already imperceptible in the second urn, would be diminished more and more by using a third urn, a fourth urn, &c." (translated by Andrew 1. Dale, 1995, Springer. pp. 35-36). Laplace foresaw what would happen to us in 150 years later, and, even more, suggested the possible tool to handle the problem. But he did omit the detailed arguments for the solution. Thus we would like to write the supplement in modern terms for Laplace in this research note. We formulate the problem with a lottery box model, to which Markov chain theory can be applied. By applying Markov chains repeatedly, one expects the uniform distribution on k states as stationary distribution. Additionally, we show that the probability of even-number of successes in binomial distribution with trials and the success probability $\theta$ approaches to 0.5, as n increases to infinity. Our theory is illustrated to the cases of truncated geometric distribution and the US 1970 draft lottery.

• Journal of Korean Society of Steel Construction
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• v.28 no.3
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• pp.163-171
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• 2016

For railway bridges, serviceabilities such as passenger comfort and train riding safety are important design requirements as well as the structural safety of the bridge. In this paper, dynamic responses of a steel box girder bridge by actual passing trains were measured and analyzed by probabilistic method. Deflections and accelerations data at center of side span were collected for about a month by various types of actual passenger and freight trains. Effects by axle weights, types of trains were analyzed. 100 and 200 years maximum values were estimated by Gumbel probability paper and compared with corresponding requirements in the current design code. Except for some cases of accelerations, estimated values were well below the criteria and exceedance probabilities were very low. More data for longer term and other types of bridges are needed to perform comprehensive analysis on the serviceability of railway bridges.

• Proceedings of the Korean Society of Medical Physics Conference
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• 2002.09a
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• pp.65-67
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• 2002

A PC based software, the RTP Research Tool Box (RTB), was developed for IMRT optimization research. The software was consisted of an image module, a beam registration module, a dose calculation module, a dose optimization module and a dose display module. The modules and the Graphical User Interface (GUI) were designed to easily amendable by negotiating the speed of performing tasks. Each module can be easily replaced to new functions for research purpose. IDL 5.5 (RSI, USA) language was used for this software. Five major modules enable one to perform the research on the dose calculation, on the dose optimization and on the objective function. The comparison of three cost functions, such as the uncomplicated tumor control probability (UTCP), the physical objective function and the pseudo-biological objective function, which was designed in this study, were performed with the RTB. The optimizations were compared to the simulated annealing and the gradient search optimization technique for all of the optimization objective functions. No significant differences were found among the objective functions with the dose gradient search technique. But the DVH analysis showed that the pseudo-biological objective function is superior to the physical objective function when with the simulated annealing for the optimization.