• Earthquakes and Structures
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• 제10권2호
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• pp.389-408
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• 2016

Recently, seismic hazard analysis has become a very significant issue. New systems and available data have been also developed that could help scientists to explain the earthquakes phenomena and its physics. Scientists have begun to accept the role of uncertainty in earthquake issues and seismic hazard analysis. However, handling the existing uncertainty is still an important problem and lack of data causes difficulties in precisely quantifying uncertainty. Ground Motion Prediction Equation (GMPE) values are usually obtained in a statistical method: regression analysis. Each of these GMPEs uses the preliminary data of the selected earthquake. In this paper, a new fuzzy method was proposed to select suitable GMPE at every intensity (earthquake magnitude) and distance (site distance to fault) according to preliminary data aggregation in their area using ${\alpha}$ cut. The results showed that the use of this method as a GMPE could make a significant difference in probabilistic seismic hazard analysis (PSHA) results instead of selecting one equation or using logic tree. Also, a practical example of this new method was described in Iran as one of the world's earthquake-prone areas.

• 산업경영시스템학회지
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• 제33권3호
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• pp.114-122
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• 2010

The Probabilistic Traveling Salesman Problem (PTSP) is an important topic in the study of traveling salesman problem and stochastic routing problem. The goal of PTSP is to find a priori tour visiting all customers with a minimum expected length, which simply skips customers not requiring a visit in the tour. There are many existing researches for the homogeneous version of the problem, where all customers have an identical visiting probability. Otherwise, the researches for the heterogeneous version of the problem are insufficient and most of them have focused on search base algorithms. In this paper, we propose a simple construction algorithm to solve the heterogeneous PTSP. The Minimum Expected Length Insertion (MELI) algorithm is a construction algorithm and consists of processes to decide a sequence of visiting customers by inserting the one, with the minimum expected length between two customers already in the sequence. Compared with optimal solutions, the MELI algorithm generates better solutions when the average probability is low and the customers have different visiting probabilities. We also suggest a local search method which improves the initial solution generated by the MELI algorithm.

• 한국전산구조공학회논문집
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• 제36권4호
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• pp.273-282
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• 2023

원자력발전소 지진 확률론적 안전성 평가인 PSA(Probabilistic Safety Assessment)는 오랜 기간에 걸쳐 확고히 구축되어 왔다. 반면에 다양한 공정 기반의 산업시설물의 경우 화재, 폭발, 확산(유출) 재난에 대해 주로 연구되어 왔으며, 지진에 대해서는 상대적으로 연구가 미미하였다. 하지만, 플랜트 설계 당시와 달리 해당 부지가 지진 영향권에 들어갈 경우 지진 PSA 수행은 필수적이다. 지진 PSA를 수행하기 위해서는 확률론적 지진 재해도 해석(Probabilistic Seismic Hazard Analysis), 사건수목 해석(Event Tree Analysis), 고장수목 해석(Fault Tree Analysis), 취약도 곡선 등을 필요로 한다. 원자력 발전소의 경우 노심 손상 방지라는 최우선 목표에 따라 많은 사고 시나리오 분석을 통해 사건수목이 구축되었지만, 산업시설물의 경우 공정의 다양성과 최우선 손상 방지 핵심설비의 부재로 인해 일반적인 사건수목 구축이 어렵다. 따라서, 본 연구에서는 산업시설물 지진 PSA를 수행하기 위해 고장수목을 바탕으로 확률론적 시각도구인 베이지안 네트워크(Bayesian Network, BN)로 변환하여 리스크를 평가하는 방법을 제안한다. 제안된 방법을 이용하여 임의로 생성된 가스플랜트 Plot Plan에 대해 최종 BN을 구축하고, 다양한 사건 경우에 대한 효용성있는 의사결정과정을 보임으로써 그 우수성을 확인하였다.

• 대한산업공학회지
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• 제14권1호
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• pp.119-131
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• 1988

Vehicle Scheduling Problem (VSP) is a generic name given to a whole class of problems involving the visiting of "stations" by "vehicles," where a time is associated with each activity. The studies performed to date have the common feature of a single objective while satisfying a set of restrictions and known customer supplies or demands. However, VSPs may involve relevant multiple objectives and probabilistic supplies or demands at stations, creating multicriteria stochastic VSPs. This paper proposes a heuristic algorithm based on goal programming approach to schedule the most satisfactory vehicle routes of a bicriteria VSP with probabilistic supplies at stations. The two relevant objectives are the minimization of the expected travel distance of vehicles and the minimization of the due time violation for collection service at stations by vehicles. The algorithm developed consists of three major stages. In the first stage, an artificial capacity of vehicle is determined, on the basis of decision maker's subjective estimates. The second one clusters a set of stations into subsets by applying an efficient cluster method developed. In the third one, the stations in each subset are scheduled by applying an iterative goal programming heuristic procedure to each cluster.

• 대한전기학회:학술대회논문집
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• 대한전기학회 2005년도 추계학술대회 논문집 전력기술부문
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• pp.237-239
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• 2005

The importance and necessity conducting studies on grid reliability evaluation have been increasingly important in recent years due to the number of black-out events occurring through in the world. Quantity evaluation of transmission system reliability is very important in a competitive electricity environment. The reason is that the successful operation of electric power under a deregulated electricity market depends on transmission system reliability management. Also in Korea it takes places. This paper presents the probabilistic reliability evaluation for 765KV transmission lines of KEPCO grid expansion planning. The Transmission Reliability Evaluation for large-Scale Systems (TRElSS) Version 6.2, a software package developed by Electric Power Research Institute (EPRI) is utilized in determining the improved probabilistic reliability indices of (KEPCO) system.

• International Journal of Control, Automation, and Systems
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• 제3권spc2호
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• pp.355-362
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• 2005

Deregulations and market practices in power industry have brought great challenges to the system planning area. In particular, they introduce a variety of uncertainties to system planning. New techniques are required to cope with such uncertainties. As a promising approach, probabilistic methods are attracting more and more attentions by system planners. In small signal stability analysis, generation control parameters play an important role in determining the stability margin. The objective of this paper is to investigate power system state matrix sensitivity characteristics with respect to system parameter uncertainties with analytical and numerical approaches and to identify those parameters have great impact on system eigenvalues, therefore, the system stability properties. Those identified parameter variations need to be investigated with priority. The results can be used to help Regional Transmission Organizations (RTOs) and Independent System Operators (ISOs) perform planning studies under the open access environment.

• 대한전기학회:학술대회논문집
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• 대한전기학회 2006년도 추계학술대회 논문집 전력기술부문
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• pp.275-278
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• 2006

This paper describes a probabilistic annual congestion cost assessment of a grid at a composite power system derived from a model. This probabilistic congestion cost assessment simulation model includes capacity limitation and uncertainties of the generators and transmission lines. In this paper, the proposed probabilistic congestion cost assessment model is focused on an annualized simulation methodology for solving long-term grid expansion planning issues. It emphasizes the questions of "how should the uncertainties of system elements (generators, lines and transformers, etc.) be considered for annual congestion cost assessment from the macro economic view point"? This simulation methodology comes essentially from a probabilistic production cost simulation model of composite power systems. This type of model comes from a nodal equivalent load duration curve based on a new effective load model at load points. The characteristics and effectiveness of this new simulation model are illustrated by several case studies of a test system.

• 한국전산구조공학회:학술대회논문집
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• 한국전산구조공학회 2007년도 정기 학술대회 논문집
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• pp.639-644
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• 2007

The accurate peak response estimation of a seismically excited structure with frictional damping system(FDS) is very difficult since the structure with FDS shows nonlinear behavior dependent on the structural period, loading characteristics, and relative magnitude between the frictional force and the excitation load. Previous studies have estimated that by replacing a nonlinear system with an equivalent linear one or by employing the response spectrum obtained based on nonlinear time history and statistical analysis. In the case that on earthquake load is defined with probabilistic characteristics, the corresponding response of the structure with FDS has probabilistic distribution. In this study, nonlinear time history analyses were performed for the structure with FDS subjected to artificial earthquake loads generated using Kanai-Tajimi filter. An equation for the probability density function (PDF) of the displacement response is proposed by adapting the PDF of the normal distribution. Finally, coefficients of the proposed PDF is obtained by regression analysis of the statistical distribution of the time history responses. Finally, the correlation between PDFs and statistical response distribution is presented.

• Nuclear Engineering and Technology
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• 제44권5호
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• pp.471-482
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• 2012

To assess the risk of nuclear power plant operation and to determine the risk impact of digital systems, there is a need to quantitatively assess the reliability of the digital systems in a justifiable manner. The Probabilistic Risk Analysis (PRA) is a tool which can reveal shortcomings of the NPP design in general and PRA analysts have not had sufficient guiding principles in modelling particular digital components malfunctions. Currently digital I&C systems are mostly analyzed simply and conventionally in PRA, based on failure mode and effects analysis and fault tree modelling. More dynamic approaches are still in the trial stage and can be difficult to apply in full scale PRA-models. As basic events CPU failures, application software failures and common cause failures (CCF) between identical components are modelled.The primary goal is to model dependencies. However, it is not clear which failure modes or system parts CCF:s should be postulated for. A clear distinction can be made between the treatment of protection and control systems. There is a general consensus that protection systems shall be included in PRA, while control systems can be treated in a limited manner. OECD/NEA CSNI Working Group on Risk Assessment (WGRisk) has set up a task group, called DIGREL, to develop taxonomy of failure modes of digital components for the purposes of PRA. The taxonomy is aimed to be the basis of future modelling and quantification efforts. It will also help to define a structure for data collection and to review PRA studies.

• Journal of Electrical Engineering and Technology
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• 제9권2호
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• pp.461-470
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• 2014

This paper presents a probabilistic power flow (PPF) analysis method for distribution network incorporating the randomness and correlation of photovoltaic (PV) generation. Based on the multivariate kernel density estimation theory, the probabilistic model of PV generation is proposed without any assumption of theoretical parametric distribution, which can accurately capture not only the randomness but also the correlation of PV resources at adjacent locations. The PPF method is developed by combining the proposed PV model and Monte Carlo technique to evaluate the influence of the randomness and correlation of PV generation on the performance of distribution networks. The historical power output data of three neighboring PV generators in Oregon, USA, and 34-bus/69-bus radial distribution networks are used to demonstrate the correctness, effectiveness, and application of the proposed PV model and PPF method.