• Title/Summary/Keyword: Probabilistic studies

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Inelastic Displacement Ratio for SDOF Bilinear and Damping Systems (이선형 단자유도 감쇠시스템의 비탄성변위비)

  • Han, Sang-Whan;Bae, Mun-Su;Cho, Jong
    • Journal of the Earthquake Engineering Society of Korea
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    • v.11 no.6
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    • pp.53-61
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    • 2007
  • This study investigates the effect of site class, post-yield stiffness ratio, damping ratio, yield-strength reduction factor, and natural period on inelastic displacement ratio of bilinear SDF systems located at the sites classified as NEHRP site class B,C,D. The previous studies developed inelastic displacement ratio using equal displacement rule in the intermediate and long period range. But, this approximation overestimates the inelastic displacement ratio. Furthermore, inelastic displacement ratio has not been developed for the systems having a damping ratio less than 5%. This study conducts nonlinear regression analysis for proposing equations for calculating median and deviation of the inelastic displacement ratio of the bilinear SDOF system having damping ratios ranging from 0 to 20%. Using median and deviation of the inelastic displacement ratio, probabilistic inelastic displacement ratio is estimated, which can be used for performance-based seismic evaluation.

Effect of Near- and Far-Fault Earthquakes for Seismic Fragility Curves of PSC Box Girder Bridges (PSC 상자형교의 지진취약도 곡선에 대한 근거리 및 원거리 지진의 영향)

  • Jin, He-Shou;Song, Jong-Keol
    • Journal of the Earthquake Engineering Society of Korea
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    • v.14 no.5
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    • pp.53-64
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    • 2010
  • Seismic fragility curves of structures represent the probability of exceeding the prescribed structural damage state for a given various levels of ground motion intensity, such as peak ground acceleration (PGA). This means that seismic fragility curves are essential to the evaluation of structural seismic performance and assessments of risk. Most of existing studies have not considered the near- and far-fault earthquake effect on the seismic fragility curves. In order to evaluate the effect of near- and far-fault earthquakes, seismic fragility curves for PSC box girder bridges subjected to near- and far-fault earthquakes are calculated and compared. The seismic fragility curves are strongly dependent on the earthquake characteristics such as fault distance. This paper suggests that the effect of near- and far-fault earthquakes on seismic fragility curves of PSC box girder bridge structure should be considered.

Field monitoring of the train-induced hanger vibration in a high-speed railway steel arch bridge

  • Ding, Youliang;An, Yonghui;Wang, Chao
    • Smart Structures and Systems
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    • v.17 no.6
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    • pp.1107-1127
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    • 2016
  • Studies on dynamic characteristics of the hanger vibration using field monitoring data are important for the design and evaluation of high-speed railway truss arch bridges. This paper presents an analysis of the hanger's dynamic displacement responses based on field monitoring of Dashengguan Yangtze River Bridge, which is a high-speed railway truss arch bridge with the longest span throughout the world. The three vibration parameters, i.e., dynamic displacement amplitude, dynamic load factor and vibration amplitude, are selected to investigate the hanger's vibration characteristics in each railway load case including the probability statistical characteristics and coupled vibration characteristics. The influences of carriageway and carriage number on the hanger's vibration characteristics are further investigated. The results indicate that: (1) All the eight railway load cases can be successfully identified according to the relationship of responses from strain sensors and accelerometers in the structural health monitoring system. (2) The hanger's three vibration parameters in each load case in the longitudinal and transverse directions have obvious probabilistic characteristics. However, they fall into different distribution functions. (3) There is good correlation between the hanger's longitudinal/transverse dynamic displacement and the main girder's transverse dynamic displacement in each load case, and their relationships are shown in the hysteresis curves. (4) Influences of the carriageway and carriage number on the hanger's three parameters are different in both longitudinal and transverse directions; while the influence on any of the three parameters presents an obvious statistical trend. The present paper lays a good foundation for the further analysis of train-induced hanger vibration and control.

Assessment of modal parameters considering measurement and modeling errors

  • Huang, Qindan;Gardoni, Paolo;Hurlebaus, Stefan
    • Smart Structures and Systems
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    • v.15 no.3
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    • pp.717-733
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    • 2015
  • Modal parameters of a structure are commonly used quantities for system identification and damage detection. With a limited number of studies on the statistics assessment of modal parameters, this paper presents procedures to properly account for the uncertainties present in the process of extracting modal parameters. Particularly, this paper focuses on how to deal with the measurement error in an ambient vibration test and the modeling error resulting from a modal parameter extraction process. A bootstrap approach is adopted, when an ensemble of a limited number of noised time-history response recordings is available. To estimate the modeling error associated with the extraction process, a model prediction expansion approach is adopted where the modeling error is considered as an "adjustment" to the prediction obtained from the extraction process. The proposed procedures can be further incorporated into the probabilistic analysis of applications where the modal parameters are used. This study considers the effects of the measurement and modeling errors and can provide guidance in allocating resources to improve the estimation accuracy of the modal data. As an illustration, the proposed procedures are applied to extract the modal data of a damaged beam, and the extracted modal data are used to detect potential damage locations using a damage detection method. It is shown that the variability in the modal parameters can be considered to be quite low due to the measurement and modeling errors; however, this low variability has a significant impact on the damage detection results for the studied beam.

FMS 스케쥴링을 위한 Priority 함수의 자동 생성에 관한 연구

  • 김창욱;신호섭;장성용;박진우
    • Proceedings of the Korea Society for Simulation Conference
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    • 1997.04a
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    • pp.93-99
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    • 1997
  • Most of the past studies on FMS scheduling problems may be classified into two classes, namely off-line scheduling and on-line scheduling approach. The off-line scheduling methods are used mostly for FMS planning purposes and may not be useful real time control of FMSs, because it generates solutions only after a relatively long period of time. The on-line scheduling methods are used extensively for dynamic real-time control of FMSs although the performance of on-line scheduling algorithms tends vary dramatically depending on various configurations of FMS. Current study is about finding a better on-line scheduling rules for FMS operations. In this study, we propose a method to create priority functions that can be used in setting relative priorities among jobs or machines in on-line scheduling. The priority functions reflect the configuration of FMS and the user-defined objective functions. The priority functions are generated from diverse dispatching rules which may be considered a special priority functions by themselves, and used to determine the order of processing and transporting parts. Overall system of our work consists of two modules, the Priority Function Evolution Module (PFEM) and the FMS Simulation Module (FMSSM). The PFEM generates new priority functions using input variables from a terminal set and primitive functions from a function set by genetic programming. And the FMSSM evaluates each priority function by a simulation methodology. Based on these evaluated values, the PFEM creates new priority functions by using crossover, mutation operation and probabilistic selection. These processes are iteratively applied until the termination criteria are satisfied. We considered various configurations and objective functions of FMSs in our study, and we seek a workable solution rather than an optimum or near optimum solution in scheduling FMS operations in real time. To verify the viability of our approach, experimental results of our model on real FMS are included.

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Dynamic Instability of Strength-Limited Bilinear SDF Systems (강도한계 이선형 단자유도 시스템의 동적 불안정)

  • Han, Sang-Whan;Kim, Jong-Bo;Bae, Mun-Su;Moon, Ki-Hoon
    • Journal of the Earthquake Engineering Society of Korea
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    • v.12 no.5
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    • pp.23-29
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    • 2008
  • This study investigates the dynamic instability of strength-limited bilinear single degree of freedom (SDF) systems under seismic excitation. The strength-limited bilinear hysteretic model best replicates the hysteretic behavior of the steel moment resisting frames. To estimate the dynamic instability of SDF systems, the collapse strength ratio is used, which is the yield-strength reduction factor when collapse occurs. Statistical studies are carried out to estimate median collapse strength ratios and those dispersions of strength-limited bilinear SDF systems with given natural periods, hardening stiffness ratios, post-capping stiffness ratios, ductility and damping ratios ranging from 2 to 20% subjected to 240 earthquake ground motions recorded on stiff soil sites. Equations to calculate median and standard deviation of collapse strength ratios in strength-limited bilinear SDF systems are obtained through nonlinear regression analysis. By using the proposed equations, this study estimated the probabilistic distribution of collapse strength ratios, and compared this with the exact values from which the accuracy of the proposed equations was verified.

Decision Making Process for Wind Barrier Installation Considering Car Accident Risk (차량사고 위험도를 고려한 방풍벽 설치기준)

  • Kim, Dong-Hyun;Lee, Il-Keun;Kwon, Soon-Duck;Jo, Byung-Wan
    • Journal of the Computational Structural Engineering Institute of Korea
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    • v.23 no.1
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    • pp.17-26
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    • 2010
  • This study presents a decision making process for installation of wind barrier which is used to reduce the wind acting on running vehicle on expressway. At the first stage of this study, the lateral deviations of running vehicles under side winds were computed from the commercial softwares, CarSim and TruckSim, and then the critical wind speeds for car accident were evaluated from predefined risk index. To determine whether it is needed to install wind barrier or not, cost and benefit from wind barrier are calculated during lifetime. In obtaining car accidental risk, probabilistic distribution of wind speed, daily traffic volume, mixture ratio in the volume, and duration time for wind speed range are considered. It is recommended to install wind barrier if benefit from the barrier installation exceed construction cost. In the numerical examples, case studies were shown for risk and benefit calculation and main risky regions on Korean highway were all evaluated to identify the number of installation sites.

The analysis of cost-effectiveness of implant and conventional fixed dental prosthesis

  • Chun, June Sang;Har, Alix;Lim, Hyun-Pil;Lim, Hoi-Jeong
    • The Journal of Advanced Prosthodontics
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    • v.8 no.1
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    • pp.53-61
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    • 2016
  • PURPOSE. This study conducted an analysis of cost-effectiveness of the implant and conventional fixed dental prosthesis (CFDP) from a single treatment perspective. MATERIALS AND METHODS. The Markov model for cost-effectiveness analysis of the implant and CFDP was carried out over maximum 50 years. The probabilistic sensitivity analysis was performed by the 10,000 Monte-Carlo simulations, and cost-effectiveness acceptability curves (CEAC) were also presented. The results from meta-analysis studies were used to determine the survival rates and complication rates of the implant and CFDP. Data regarding the cost of each treatment method were collected from University Dental Hospital and Statistics Korea for 2013. Using the results of the patient satisfaction survey study, quality-adjusted prosthesis year (QAPY) of the implant and CFDP strategy was evaluated with annual discount rate. RESULTS. When only the direct cost was considered, implants were more cost-effective when the willingness to pay (WTP) was more than 10,000 won at $10^{th}$ year after the treatment, and more cost-effective regardless of the WTP from $20^{th}$ year after the prosthodontic treatment. When the indirect cost was added to the direct cost, implants were more cost-effective only when the WTP was more than 75,000 won at the $10^{th}$ year after the prosthodontic treatment, more than 35,000 won at the $20^{th}$ year after prosthodontic treatment. CONCLUSION. The CFDP was more cost-effective unless the WTP was more than 75,000 won at the $10^{th}$ year after prosthodontic treatment. But the cost-effectivenss tendency changed from CFDP to implant as time passed.

Evaluation of the Uncertainties in Rainfall-Runoff Model Using Meta-Gaussian Approach (Meta-Gaussian 방법을 이용한 강우-유출 모형에서의 불확실성 산정)

  • Kim, Byung-Sik;Kim, Bo-Kyung;Kwon, Hyun-Han
    • Journal of Wetlands Research
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    • v.11 no.1
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    • pp.49-64
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    • 2009
  • Rainfall-runoff models are used for efficient management, distribution, planning, and design of water resources in accordance with the process of hydrologic cycle. The models simplify the transition of rainfall to runoff as rainfall through different processes including evaporation, transpiration, interception, and infiltration. As the models simplify complex physical processes, gaps between the models and actual rainfall events exist. For more accurate simulation, appropriate models that suit analysis goals are selected and reliable long-term hydrological data are collected. However, uncertainty is inherent in models. It is therefore necessary to evaluate reliability of simulation results from models. A number of studies have evaluated uncertainty ingrained in rainfall-runoff models. In this paper, Meta-Gaussian method proposed by Montanari and Brath(2004) was used to assess uncertainty of simulation outputs from rainfall-runoff models. The model, which estimates upper and lower bounds of the confidence interval from probabilistic distribution of a model's error, can quantify global uncertainty of hydrological models. In this paper, Meta-Gaussian method was applied to analyze uncertainty of simulated runoff outputs from $Vflo^{TM}$, a physically-based distribution model and HEC-HMS model, a conceptual lumped model.

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A Risk Quantification Study for Accident Causes on Building Construction Site by Applying Probabilistic Forecast Concept (확률론적 추정 개념을 적용한 건설 공사 현장의 사고원인별 리스크 정량화 연구)

  • Yu, Yeong-Jin;Son, Kiyoung;Kim, Taehui;Kim, Ji-Myong
    • Journal of the Korea Institute of Building Construction
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    • v.17 no.3
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    • pp.287-294
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    • 2017
  • Recently the construction project is becoming large-sized, complicated, and modernize. This has increased the uncertainty of construction risk. Therefore, studies should be followed regarding scientifically identifying the risk factors, quantifying the frequency and severity of risk factors in order to develop a model that can quantitatively evaluate and manage the risk for response the increased risk in construction. To address the problem, this study analyze the probability distribution of risk causes, the probability of occurrence and frequency of the specific risk level through Monte Carlo simulation method based on the accident data caused at construction sites. In the end, this study derives quantitative analysis by analyzing the amount of risk and probability distributions of accident causes. The results of this study will be a basis for future quantitative risk management models and risk management research.