• 제목/요약/키워드: Probabilistic sensitivity

검색결과 217건 처리시간 0.031초

오차확률 기반 송전계통 보호계전기 보호도 평가방법 연구 (Protectability Evaluation of Distance Relay based on a Probabilistic Method for Transmission Network)

  • 짱원하오;최면승;이승재
    • 대한전기학회:학술대회논문집
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    • 대한전기학회 2009년도 제40회 하계학술대회
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    • pp.286_287
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    • 2009
  • In this paper, the protectability of distance relay is furtherly researched. Based on the probabilistic modeling of the measurement errors, the protectability of three zones is presented in detail by considering their different protection aims denoted by sensitivity and selectivity. The optimal setting for the each zone can be obtained to provide a reference for the practical application.

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수상함에서 발사된 수직 발사 유도탄 초기 거동의 통계적 해석 (Statistical Analysis of Initial Behavior of a Vertically-launched Missile from Surface Ship)

  • 김경태
    • 한국소음진동공학회논문집
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    • 제22권9호
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    • pp.889-895
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    • 2012
  • A vertical launching system(VLS) is a system for holding and firing missiles on surface ships. When a missile is launched in VLS, relative motion between canister and missile and drag force induced by wind can cause initial unstability of a missile. Thus dynamic analysis of initial behavior of vertically launched missile should be performed to prevent collision with any structure of a ship. In this study, dynamic analyses of initial behavior of vertically launched missile are performed using Monte-Carlo simulation, which relys on random sampling and probabilistic distribution of variables. Each parameter related with dynamic behavior of a missile is modeled with probability variables and Recurdyn, a commercial software for multi body dynamic analysis, is used to perform Monte-Carlo simulation. As a result, initial behavior of a missile is evaluated with respect to various performance indexes in a probabilistic sense and sensitivity of the each parameters is calculated.

오차확률 가반 송전계통 보호계전기 보호도 평가방법 연구 (Protectability Evaluation of Distance Relay based on a Probabilistic Method for Transmission Network)

  • 짱원하오;최면승;이승재
    • 대한전기학회:학술대회논문집
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    • 대한전기학회 2008년도 제39회 하계학술대회
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    • pp.29-30
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    • 2008
  • This paper defines a concept of "protectability" for the performance evaluation of distance relay considering its sensitivity and selectivity. The paper starts from the probabilistic modeling of the errors, and based on this model, a detailed explanation of protectability calculation for each zone of the distance relay is presented. An effect of the Weighting Rate and the Measurement Deviation on the protectability evaluation is also given. By considering this effect, the optimization of relay setting can be realized. The proposed method is applied to a typical model system to show its effectiveness.

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A Quantitative Study on Important Factors of the PSA of Safety-Critical Digital Systems

  • Kang, Hyun-Gook;Taeyong Sung
    • Nuclear Engineering and Technology
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    • 제33권6호
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    • pp.596-604
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    • 2001
  • This paper quantitatively presents the effects of important factors of the probabilistic safety assessment (PSA) of safety-critical digital systems. The result which is quantified using fault tree analysis methodology shows that these factors remarkably affect the system safety. In this paper we list the factors which should be represented by the model for PSA. Based on the PSA experience, we select three important factors which are expected to dominate the system unavailability. They are the avoidance of common cause failure, the coverage of fault tolerant mechanisms and software failure probability. We Quantitatively demonstrate the effect of these three factors. The broader usage of digital equipment in nuclear power plants gives rise to the safety problems. Even though conventional PSA methods are immature for applying to microprocessor-based digital systems, practical needs force us to apply it because the result of PSA plays an important role in proving the safety of a designed system. We expect the analysis result to provide valuable feedback to the designers of digital safety- critical systems.

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Deriving Ecological Protective Concentration of Cadmium for Korean Soil Environment

  • Lee, Woo-Mi;Nam, Sun-Hwa;An, Youn-Joo
    • Environmental Engineering Research
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    • 제18권4호
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    • pp.241-246
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    • 2013
  • For effective and efficient environmental management, developed countries, such as the Netherlands, UK, Australia, Canada, and United States apply ecological risk assessment, and they have an autonomous risk assessment methodology to protect native receptors. In this study, soil ecological protective concentration (EPC) of cadmium in Korea was derived using Korean ecological risk assessment methodology. The soil EPC of cadmium was calculated using probabilistic ecological risk assessment based on species sensitivity distribution. The soil EPC was calculated according to land use for residential/agricultural and industrial/commercial purposes. The chronic soil EPCs for residential/agricultural and industrial/commercial lands were derived to be 1.58 and 9.60 mg/kg, respectively. These values were similar to soil EPC of European Commission, the Netherlands, UK, and Canada. However, these values were lower than the established Korean soil standard, because the current soil standard was based on human risk. Therefore, the impact on an ecosystem when establishing environmental standard should be considered.

Derivation of preliminary derived concentration guideline levels for surface soil at Kori Unit 1 by RESRAD probabilistic analysis

  • Byon, Jihyang;Park, Sangjune;Ahn, Seokyoung
    • Nuclear Engineering and Technology
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    • 제50권8호
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    • pp.1289-1297
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    • 2018
  • Preliminary surface soil Derived Concentration Guideline Levels (DCGLs) were derived conforming to the Multi-Agency Radiation Site Survey and Investigation Manual (MARSSIM) procedure for the site release and reuse of Kori Unit 1 in Korea. Based on the decommissioning experiences of the U.S. nuclear power plants, a suite of residual radionuclides was determined, and uncertainties contributed to the resultant dose by the input parameters were quantified via the sensitivity analysis of parameters. The peak of the mean dose was obtained via the probabilistic analysis of the RESRAD (RESidual RADioactivity)-ONSITE code. Consequently, $DCGL_w$ of Kori Unit 1 in accordance with two scenarios, industrial worker and residential farmer scenario, were derived and the results were compared respectively with other NPPs. It could be used as a basic guideline for establishing regulatory standards for reuse planning, designing the site characterization surveys and implementing final status survey (FSS).

Stochastic vibration analysis of functionally graded beams using artificial neural networks

  • Trinh, Minh-Chien;Jun, Hyungmin
    • Structural Engineering and Mechanics
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    • 제78권5호
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    • pp.529-543
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    • 2021
  • Inevitable source-uncertainties in geometry configuration, boundary condition, and material properties may deviate the structural dynamics from its expected responses. This paper aims to examine the influence of these uncertainties on the vibration of functionally graded beams. Finite element procedures are presented for Timoshenko beams and utilized to generate reliable datasets. A prerequisite to the uncertainty quantification of the beam vibration using Monte Carlo simulation is generating large datasets, that require executing the numerical procedure many times leading to high computational cost. Utilizing artificial neural networks to model beam vibration can be a good approach. Initially, the optimal network for each beam configuration can be determined based on numerical performance and probabilistic criteria. Instead of executing thousands of times of the finite element procedure in stochastic analysis, these optimal networks serve as good alternatives to which the convergence of the Monte Carlo simulation, and the sensitivity and probabilistic vibration characteristics of each beam exposed to randomness are investigated. The simple procedure presented here is efficient to quantify the uncertainty of different stochastic behaviors of composite structures.

초전도 한류기를 적용한 한전미래계통의 확률론적 신뢰도 평가 (A Probabilistic Reliability Assessment of KEPCO Future System with Applied HTS-FCL)

  • 권중지;이승렬;윤재영;최재석
    • 한국초전도ㆍ저온공학회논문지
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    • 제10권3호
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    • pp.19-22
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    • 2008
  • The power systems should be improved to reduce the number of black-out events occurring throughout the world. Quantitative evaluation of composite power system reliability is very important in a competitive electricity environment. The reason is that the successful operation of electric power systems under a deregulated electricity market depends on transmission system reliability management. This paper presents sensitivity analysis of probabilistic reliability indices of Korea power systems with checking application of HTS-FCL.

심박수변이도 분석을 위한 확률적 지식기반 모형 (A probabilistic knowledge model for analyzing heart rate variability)

  • 손창식;강원석;최락현;박형섭;한성욱;김윤년
    • 한국산업정보학회논문지
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    • 제20권3호
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    • pp.61-69
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    • 2015
  • 본 논문에서는 이산 웨이블릿 변환을 통해 추출된 시간 영역과 주파수 영역의 특징들을 활용하여 심박수변이도를 확률적인 지식으로 분석할 수 있는 방법을 제안하였다. 제안된 방법에서 지식획득 알고리즘은 규칙생성과 규칙평가 단계로 구성되어 있으며, 규칙생성에서는 ROC 분석을 통해 수치적인 속성값을 이산화된 구간으로 변환하고, 서로 다른 의사결정값을 포함하는 구간들 사이에 일관성 정도를 비교함으로써 감축된 규칙-집합을 생성한다. 이때 규칙-집합 내에 각 규칙에 대해서 확률적 해석을 위한 3가지 척도를 추정하였다. 제안된 모형의 효과성은 심혈관질환 병력을 가진 58명의 심전도 데이터로부터 심방세동을 식별할 수 있는 5가지 규칙을 생성하였고, 이들 규칙의 분별력을 평가하였다. 실험결과, 제안된 모형으로부터 생성된 지식은 4가지 성능평가 척도에 대해서 각각 93%의 정확도를 보여주었다.

A-KRS 처분 시스템 확률론적 안전성 평가 (A Probabilistic Safety Assessment of a Pyro-processed Waste Repository)

  • 이연명;정종태
    • 방사성폐기물학회지
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    • 제10권4호
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    • pp.263-272
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    • 2012
  • 파이로처리 방사성 폐기물 처분 시스템에 대하여 골드심을 이용하여 개발된 확률론적 평가 프로그램을 이용하여 폐쇄후 방사선적 안전성 평가를 수행하였다. 처분장으로부터 핵종이 유출되어 다양한 처분 시스템 내 매질을 이동하는 것에 관련된 정상 시나리오에 대한 평가를 위하여, 평가 결과에 대한 민감도나 일반적으로 불확실성의 범위가 큰 입력자료 중 주요하다고 판단되는 파라미터를 9개로 선정하여 평가에 고려된 핵종 중 Tc, Sn, Pa, Cs 4개의 원소에 대하여 평가 결과를 논의해 보았다. 확률론적 안전성 평가와 함께 이들 각 입력 자료에 대한 최종 방사선 피폭선량에 대한 민감도도 분석하여 결과에 대한 각 입력 파라미터의 중요도도 비교하였다.