• Nuclear Engineering and Technology
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• 제44권5호
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• pp.471-482
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• 2012

To assess the risk of nuclear power plant operation and to determine the risk impact of digital systems, there is a need to quantitatively assess the reliability of the digital systems in a justifiable manner. The Probabilistic Risk Analysis (PRA) is a tool which can reveal shortcomings of the NPP design in general and PRA analysts have not had sufficient guiding principles in modelling particular digital components malfunctions. Currently digital I&C systems are mostly analyzed simply and conventionally in PRA, based on failure mode and effects analysis and fault tree modelling. More dynamic approaches are still in the trial stage and can be difficult to apply in full scale PRA-models. As basic events CPU failures, application software failures and common cause failures (CCF) between identical components are modelled.The primary goal is to model dependencies. However, it is not clear which failure modes or system parts CCF:s should be postulated for. A clear distinction can be made between the treatment of protection and control systems. There is a general consensus that protection systems shall be included in PRA, while control systems can be treated in a limited manner. OECD/NEA CSNI Working Group on Risk Assessment (WGRisk) has set up a task group, called DIGREL, to develop taxonomy of failure modes of digital components for the purposes of PRA. The taxonomy is aimed to be the basis of future modelling and quantification efforts. It will also help to define a structure for data collection and to review PRA studies.

• Computers and Concrete
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• 제29권1호
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• pp.1-14
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• 2022

Several aspects influence corrosive processes in reinforced concrete (RC) structures such as environmental conditions, structural geometry and mechanical properties. Since these aspects present large randomnesses, probabilistic models allow a more accurate description of the corrosive phenomena. Besides, the definition of limit states in the reliability assessment requires a proper mechanical model. In this context, this study proposes a straightforward methodology for the mechanical-probabilistic modelling of RC structures subjected to reinforcements' corrosion. An improved damage approach is proposed to define the limit states for the probabilistic modelling, considering three main degradation phenomena: concrete cracking, rebar yielding and rebar corrosion caused either by chloride or carbonation mechanisms. The stochastic analysis is evaluated by the Monte Carlo simulation method due to the computational efficiency of the Lumped Damage Model for Corrosion (LDMC). The proposed mechanical-probabilistic methodology is implemented in a computational framework and applied to the analysis of a simply supported RC beam and a 2D RC frame. Curves illustrate the probability of failure evolution over a service life of 50 years. Moreover, the proposed model allows drawing the probability of failure map and then identifying the critical failure path for progressive collapse analysis. Collapse path changes caused by the corrosion phenomena are observed.

• 한국정보통신학회논문지
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• 제10권8호
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• pp.1386-1392
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• 2006

유전자 생물학 분야에서 여러 각도로 세포 간 네트워크를 입증하는 고 처리 정보공학 WWW에 응용하려는 수치학적인 표현 모델 분석 연구한다. 확률적 그래프 모델을 사용하여 데이터 네트워크로부터 생물학적 통찰력을 확률적 함수적으로 응용해 복잡한 세포 간 네트워크 보다 단순한 하부모델로 구성하여 유전자 베이스네트워크 논리를 유전자 표현 레벨로 나타낸다. 유전자 데이터로부터 확률적 그래프 모델들을 분석하여 유전자 표현 데이터를 정보 공학 네트워크 모델의 방법으로 확장 추론한다.

• 환경영향평가
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• 제9권3호
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• pp.185-202
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• 2000

Uncertainty and variability in Life Cycle Assessment(LCA) have been significant key issues in LCA methodology with techniques in other research area such as social and political science. Variability is understood as stemming from inherent variations in the real world, while uncertainty comes from inaccurate measurements, lack of data, model assumptions, etc. Related articles in this issues were reviewed for classification, distinguish and elaboration of probabilistic/stochastic health risk analysis application in LCA. Concept of focal zone, streamlining technique, scenario modelling and Monte Carlo/Latin Hypercube risk analysis were applied to the uncertainty/variability analysis of health risk in LCA. These results show that this general framework of multi-disciplinary methodology between probabilistic health risk assessment and LCA was of benefit to decision making process by suppling information about input/output data sensitivity, health effect priority and health risk distribution. There should be further research needs for case study using this methodology.

• 한국전자통신학회논문지
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• 제6권5호
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• pp.649-656
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• 2011

본 논문에서는 유전자 생물학 분야의 여러 각도로 세포 간 네트워크를 분석하고, 유전자 생물학 분야를 정보공학 네트워크에 응용하여 수치학적인 표현 모델로 분석 연구하고자 한다. 확률적 그래프 모델을 사용하여 데이터 네트워크로부터 생물학적 통찰력을 확률적 함수적으로 응용해, 복잡한 세포 간 네트워크 보다 단순한 하부모델로 구성하여 유전자 베이스네트워크 논리를 유전자 표현 레벨로 나타낸다. 유전자 데이터로부터 확률적 그래프 모델들을 분석하여 유전자 표현 데이터를 정보공학 네트워크 모델의 방법으로 확장 추론한다.

• Geomechanics and Engineering
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• 제24권4호
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• pp.399-406
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• 2021

It is a key issue in the tunnel design to evaluate the stability of the excavation face. Two efficient analytical models in the context of the limit equilibrium method (LEM) and the limit analysis method (LAM) are used to carry out the deterministic calculations of the safety factor. The safety factor obtained by these two models agrees well with that provided by the numerical modelling by FLAC 3D, but consuming less time. A simple probabilistic approach based on the Mote-Carlo Simulation technique which can quickly calculate the probability distribution of the safety factor was used to perform the probabilistic analysis on the tunnel face stability. Both the cumulative probabilistic distribution and the probability density function in terms of the safety factor were obtained. The obtained results show the effectiveness of this probabilistic approach in the tunnel design.

• Steel and Composite Structures
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• 제8권1호
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• pp.35-52
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• 2008

The paper investigates the seismic performance of a Partially-Restrained (PR) steel-concrete composite frame using the probabilistic approach. The analysed frame was tested at the ELSA laboratory of the Joint Research Centre of Ispra (Italy), while the representative beam-to-column composite connections were tested at the Universities of Pisa, Milan and Trento (Italy). The component modelling of both interior and exterior composite joints is described first, including the experimental-numerical validation. The Latin Hypercube method has been used to draw the probabilistic distribution curves of joints, and then the whole PR composite frame has been analysed. Pushover and incremental dynamic analyses have been carried out using the non-linear FE code SAP2000 version 9.1. The fragility and performance curves of the PR composite frame have been determined for four damage limit states.

• Wind and Structures
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• 제30권4호
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• pp.405-421
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• 2020

Quayside container cranes are important delivery machineries located in the most frontiers of container terminals, where strong wind attacks happen occasionally. Since the previous researches on quayside container cranes mainly focused on the mean wind load and static response characteristics, the fluctuating wind load and dynamic response characteristics require further investigations. In the present study, the aerodynamic wind loads on quayside container cranes were obtained from wind tunnel tests. The probabilistic and spectral models of the fluctuating aerodynamic loads were established. Then the joint probabilistic distributions of dynamic wind-induced responses were derived theoretically based on a series of Gaussian and independent assumption of resonant components. Finally, the results were validated by time domain analysis using wind tunnel data. It is concluded that the assumptions are acceptable. And the presented approach can estimate peak dynamic sliding force, overturning moments and leg uplifts of quayside container cranes effectively and efficiently.

• Computers and Concrete
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• 제18권1호
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• pp.69-97
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• 2016

Performance-based remaining life assessment of reinforced concrete bridge girders, subject to chloride-induced corrosion of reinforcement, is addressed in this paper. Towards this, a methodology that takes into consideration the human judgmental aspects in expert decision making regarding condition state assessment is proposed. The condition of the bridge girder is specified by the assignment of a condition state from a set of predefined condition states, considering both serviceability- and ultimate- limit states, and, the performance of the bridge girder is described using performability measure. A non-homogeneous Markov chain is used for modelling the stochastic evolution of condition state of the bridge girder with time. The thinking process of the expert in condition state assessment is modelled within a probabilistic framework using Brunswikian theory and probabilistic mental models. The remaining life is determined as the time over which the performance of the girder is above the required performance level. The usefulness of the methodology is illustrated through the remaining life assessment of a reinforced concrete T-beam bridge girder.

• 대한기계학회논문집
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• 제18권6호
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• pp.1448-1454
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• 1994

Data which gathered and used in the field of fatigue and fracture mechanics have a lot of uncertainties. In this case, those uncertainties will make scatter band in evaluation of fatigue life and fracture toughness. Thus, the probabilistic analysis of these data will be needed. For determining the fatigue life in mixed mode, using crack direction law and fatigue crack growth law, the problem is studied as a constrained life minimization. Stress intensity factor(SIF) is computed by approximate solution table(Ewalds/Wanhill 1984) and 0th order PFEM. The variance of fatigue life and SIF are computed by differentiation of tabulated approximate solution and 1st order PFEM. And these are used for criterion of design values, principal parameter determination and modelling. The problem of center cracked plate is solved for checking the PFEM model which is influenced by various parameters like as initial crack length, final crack length, two fatigue parameters in Paris Equation and applied stress.