• East Asian mathematical journal
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• v.36 no.1
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• pp.55-60
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• 2020

We study a probabilistic approach for valuing an exchange option with default risk. The structural model of Klein [6] is used for modeling default risk. Under the structural model, we derive the closed-form pricing formula of the exchange option with default risk. Specifically, we provide the pricing formula of the option with the bivariate normal cumulative function via a change of measure technique and a multidimensional Girsanov's theorem.

• Journal of the Korea Safety Management & Science
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• v.2 no.2
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• pp.71-83
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• 2000

This paper presents accelerated life tests for Type I censoring data under probabilistic stresses. Probabilistic stress, $S_j$, is the random variable for stress influenced by test environments, test equipments, sampling devices and use conditions. The hazard rate, ,$theta_j$, is the random variable of environments and the function of probabilistic stress. Also it is assumed that the general stress distribution is uniform, the life distribution for the given hazard rate, $\theta$, is exponential and inverse power law model holds. In this paper, we obtained maximum likelihood estimators of model parameters and the mean life in use stress condition.

• Proceedings of the KIEE Conference
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• 1987.11a
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• pp.101-105
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• 1987

A new probabilistic production costing simulation model has been developed based on the effective load and economic load dispatch. The best model must be able to simulate the real world exactly and the computing efficiencies are also reasonable. This proposed model is a new concept for the probabilistic production costing simulation model. This model is compared with the available existing ones through two sample systems, and the excellent results are shown.

• Korean Journal of Culture and Social Issue
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• v.9 no.spc
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• pp.123-147
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• 2003

This paper provides a comparative analysis of the probabilistic versus deterministic view of accident and safety using the indigenous and cultural perspectives. Death and injury due to accidents is the leading cause of preventable death in most countries, including Korea. The first part of this paper delineates the limitation of the linear, deterministic model that has been adopted in social and applied sciences. The transactional model, advocated by indigenous psychology, is provided to understand the probabilistic nature of accident and safety at home, in the workplace and in society. Second, factors related to accidents and safety are reviewed. Third, application of the probabilistic model for preventing accidents and promoting safety in Korea is outlined.

• Advances in concrete construction
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• v.9 no.4
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• pp.337-343
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• 2020

In the present study, by employing fragility analysis, the seismic vulnerability of a concrete girder bridge, one of the most common existing structural bridge systems, has been performed. To this end, drift demand model as a fundamental ingredient of any probabilistic decision-making analyses is initially developed in terms of the two most common intensity measures, i.e., PGA and Sa (T₁). Developing a probabilistic demand model requires a reliable database that is established in this paper by performing incremental dynamic analysis (IDA) under a set of 20 ground motion records. Next, by employing Bayesian statistical inference drift demand models are developed based on pre-collapse data obtained from IDA. Then, the accuracy and reasonability of the developed models are investigated by plotting diagnosis graphs. This graphical analysis demonstrates probabilistic demand model developed in terms of PGA is more reliable. Afterward, fragility curves according to PGA based-demand model are developed.

• Industrial Engineering and Management Systems
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• v.15 no.4
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• pp.324-334
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• 2016

Manufacturers and retailers are interested in how prices, promotions, discounts and other marketing variables can influence the sales and shares of the products that they produce or sell. Therefore, many models have been developed to predict the brand share. Since the customer choice models are usually used to predict the market share, here we use hybrid model of Probabilistic Neural Network and Artificial Bee colony Algorithm (PNN-ABC) that we have introduced to model consumer choice to predict brand share. The evaluation process is carried out using the same data set that we have used for modeling individual consumer choices in a retail coffee market. Then, to show good performance of this model we compare it with Artificial Neural Network with one hidden layer, Artificial Neural Network with two hidden layer, Artificial Neural Network trained with genetic algorithms (ANN-GA), and Probabilistic Neural Network. The evaluated results show that the offered model is outperforms better than other previous models, so it can be use as an effective tool for modeling consumer choice and predicting market share.

• Korean Journal of Cognitive Science
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• v.17 no.4
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• pp.303-321
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• 2006

According to Harris'(1966) distributional hypothesis, understanding the meaning of a word is thought to be dependent on its context. Under this hypothesis about human language ability, this paper proposes a computational model for native speaker's language processing mechanism concerning word sense disambiguation, based on two sets of experiments. Among the three computational models discussed in this paper, namely, the logic model, the probabilistic model, and the probabilistic inference model, the experiment shows that the logic model is first applied fer semantic disambiguation of the key word. Nexr, if the logic model fails to apply, then the probabilistic model becomes most relevant. The three models were also compared with the test results in terms of Pearson correlation coefficient value. It turns out that the logic model best explains the human decision behaviour on the ambiguous words, and the probabilistic inference model tomes next. The experiment consists of two pans; one involves 30 sentences extracted from 1 million graphic-word corpus, and the result shows the agreement rate anong native speakers is at 98% in terms of word sense disambiguation. The other pm of the experiment, which was designed to exclude the logic model effect, is composed of 50 cleft sentences.

• Journal of the Korean Society of Safety
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• v.25 no.6
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• pp.186-196
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• 2010

It has been well known that traffic accidents occur under combined functional contributions of drivers, vehicles and road facilities, and that evaluation of safety levels for a specific road section or point is generally much complicated. Additionally, most of traffic accidents occur randomly implicating it is necessary to be evaluated in terms of probability theory. Thus, the evaluation model which reflects various characteristics and probabilistic distributions of traffic accidents has been necessary. The present paper provides a reliability based model with variables of probabilistic operating speeds and design speeds together which have been individually explaining associated characteristics in traffic accidents. Consequently, the model made it possible for speed management and road improvement projects to be evaluated in a common index. Application studies were performed in three cases. Through the studies, couples of facts were identified that the model successfully considered the probabilistic operating speeds and design speeds together and that then, the model evaluated road safety alternatives relatively which are complicatedly characterized and differently located.

• The KIPS Transactions:PartB
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• v.9B no.6
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• pp.809-816
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• 2002

Since a natural language has inherently structural ambiguities, one of the difficulties of parsing is resolving the structural ambiguities. Recently, a probabilistic approach to tackle this disambiguation problem has received considerable attention because it has some attractions such as automatic learning, wide-coverage, and robustness. In this paper, we focus on Korean probabilistic parsing model using head co-occurrence. We are apt to meet the data sparseness problem when we're using head co-occurrence because it is lexical. Therefore, how to handle this problem is more important than others. To lighten the problem, we have used the restricted and simplified phrase-structure grammar and back-off model as smoothing. The proposed model has showed that the accuracy is about 84%.

• Korean Management Science Review
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• v.32 no.4
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• pp.97-108
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• 2015

This study proposes a mathematical model to estimate the economic value of weather forecast service, among which the precipitation forecast service is focused. The value is calculated in terms of users' satisfaction or dissatisfaction resulted from the users' decisions made by using the precipitation probabilistic forecasts and thresholds. The satisfaction values can be quantified by the traditional value score model, which shows the scaled utility values relative to the perfect forecast information. This paper extends the value score concept to a collective value score model which is defined as a weighted sum of users' satisfaction based on threshold distribution in a group of the users. The proposed collective value score model is applied to the picnic scenario by using four hypothetical sets of probabilistic forecasts, i.e., under-confident, over-confident, under-forecast and over-forecast. The application results show that under-confident type of forecasts outperforms the others as a measure of the maximum collective value regardless of users' dissatisfaction patterns caused by two types of forecast errors, e.g., miss and false alarm.