• 한국방재학회:학술대회논문집
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• 2008.02a
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• pp.269-272
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• 2008

The seismic fragility curves of a structure represents the probability of exceeding the prescribed structural damage given various levels of ground motion intensityand the seismic fragility curve is essential to evaluation of structural performance and assessment of risk and loss of structures. The purpose of this paper is to develop seismic fragility functions for bridge structures in Koreaby reviewing those of advanced countries. Therefore, at first, we investigated development conditions of the seismic fragility functions. And the next highway bridges in Korea are classified into a number of categories and several typical bridges are selected to estimate seismic fragilities for using this analysis method in Korea. Finally, fragility curves for PSC Box girder bridge are estimated. The results show that the bridge classification and damage state play an important role in estimation of seismic damage and seismic fragility analysis for bridge structures.

• Earthquakes and Structures
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• v.13 no.3
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• pp.289-297
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• 2017

This paper presents seismic performance and reliability evaluation on steel-timber hybrid shear wall systems composed of steel moment resisting frames and infill light frame wood shear walls. Based on experimental observations, damage assessment was conducted to determine the appropriate damage-related performance objectives for the hybrid shear wall systems. Incremental time-history dynamic analyses were conducted to establish a database of seismic responses for the hybrid systems with various structural configurations. The associated reliability indices and failure probabilities were calculated by two reliability methods (i.e., fragility analysis and response surface method). Both methods yielded similar estimations of failure probabilities. This study indicated the greatly improved seismic performance of the steel-timber hybrid shear wall systems with stronger infill wood shear walls. From a probabilistic perspective, the presented results give some insights on quantifying the seismic performance of the hybrid system under different seismic hazard levels. The reliability-based approaches also serve as efficient tools to assess the performance-based seismic design methodology and calibration of relative code provisions for the proposed steel-timber hybrid shear wall systems.

• Journal of the Earthquake Engineering Society of Korea
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• v.16 no.3
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• pp.35-42
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• 2012

We propose a probabilistic method to evaluate the uniform hazard spectra (UHS) of the soil of nuclear power plant(NPP) sites corresponding to that of a bedrock site. To do this, amplification factors on the surface of soil sites were estimated through site response analysis while considering the uncertainty in the earthquake ground motion and soil deposit characteristics. The amplification factors were calculated by regression analysis with spectral acceleration because these two factors are mostly correlated. The proposed method was applied to the evaluation of UHS for the KNGR (Korean Next Generation Reactor) and the APR1400 (Advanced Power Reactor 1400) nuclear power plant sites of B1, B4, C1 and C3. The most dominant frequency range with respect to the annual frequency of earthquakes was evaluated from the UHS analysis. It can be expected that the proposed method will improve the results of integrated risk assessments of NPPs rationally. We expect also that the proposed method will be applied to the evaluation of the UHS and of many other kinds of soil sites.

• Journal of the Korean Society of Safety
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• v.34 no.5
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• pp.159-166
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• 2019

The seismic PSA is to probabilistically estimate the potential damage that a large earthquake will cause to a nuclear power plant. It integrates the probabilistic seismic hazard analysis, seismic fragility analysis, and system analysis and is utilized to identify seismic vulnerability and improve seismic capacity of nuclear power plants. Recently, the seismic risk of domestic multi-unit nuclear power plant sites has been evaluated after the Great East Japan Earthquake and Gyeongju Earthquake in Korea. However, while the currently available methods for system analysis can derive basic required results of seismic PSA, they do not provide the detailed results required for the efficient improvement of seismic capacity. Therefore, for in-depth seismic risk evaluation, improved system analysis method for seismic PSA has become necessary. This study develops a system analysis method that is not only suitable for multi-unit seismic PSA but also provides risk information for the seismic capacity improvements. It will also contribute to the enhancement of the safety of nuclear power plants by identifying the seismic vulnerability using the detailed results of seismic PSA. In addition, this system analysis method can be applied to other external event PSAs, such as fire PSA and tsunami PSA, which require similar analysis.

• Journal of the Earthquake Engineering Society of Korea
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• v.15 no.2
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• pp.43-51
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• 2011

Probabilistic seismic hazard analysis (PSHA), which can effectively apply inevitable uncertainties in seismic data, considers a number of seismotectonic models and attenuation equations. The calculated hazard by PSHA is generally a value dependent on peak ground acceleration (PGA) and expresses the value as an annual exceedance probability. To represent the uncertainty range of a hazard which has occurred using various seismic data, a hazard curve figure shows both a mean curve and percentile curves (15, 50, and 85). The percentile performs an important role in that it indicates the uncertainty range of the calculated hazard, could be calculated using various methods by the relation of the weight and hazard. This study using the weight accumulation method, the weighted hazard method, the maximum likelihood method, and the moment method, has calculated the percentile of the computed hazard by PSHA on the Shinuljin 1, 2 site. The calculated percentile using the weight accumulation method, the weighted hazard method, and the maximum likelihood method, have similar trends and represent the range of all computed hazards by PSHA. The calculated percentile using the moment method effectively showed the range of hazards at the source which includes a site. This study suggests the moment method as effective percentile calculation method considering the almost same mean hazard for the seismotectonic model and a source which includes a site.

• Proceedings of the Earthquake Engineering Society of Korea Conference
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• 2006.03a
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• pp.33-40
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• 2006

Since early 1990's, several Quaternary faults have been found in the southeastern part of the Korean peninsula with reference to fault activity. Because some of these faults could be considered a capable fault, it is a very delicate matter, which need to be deal with carefully in assessing the seismic hazard. In determining whether or not a faults are capable, because of the low rate of seismicity and insufficient relationship between instrumental macro-seismicity and fault, there has been considerable debate among geologists and geophysicists in Korea. In this study, we discuss the criteria and probabilistic approaches that are used to assess whether or not a fault is seismogenic. And, we preliminarily also suggest the probability of fault activity from the spatial association between faults and earthquake epicenters, fault slip and tectonic stress, and geological evidence for multiple episodes of reactivation.

• Earthquakes and Structures
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• v.19 no.6
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• pp.471-484
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• 2020

Previous earthquakes show that, structural safety evaluations should include the evaluation of nonstructural components. Failure of nonstructural components can affect the operational capacity of critical facilities, such as hospitals and fire stations, which can cause an increase in number of deaths. Additionally, failure of nonstructural components may result in economic, architectural, and historical losses of community. Accelerations and random vibrations must be under the predefined limitations in structures with high technological equipment, data centers in this case. Failure of server equipment and anchored server racks are investigated in this study. A probabilistic study is completed for a low-rise rigid sample structure. The structure is investigated in two versions, (i) conventional fixed-based structure and (ii) with a base isolation system. Seismic hazard assessment is completed for the selected site. Monte Carlo simulations are generated with selected parameters. Uncertainties in both structural parameters and mechanical properties of isolation system are included in simulations. Anchorage failure and vibration failures are investigated. Different methods to generate fragility curves are used. The site-specific annual hazard curve is used to generate risk curves for two different structures. A risk matrix is proposed for the design of data centers. Results show that base isolation systems reduce the failure probability significantly in higher floors. It was also understood that, base isolation systems are highly sensitive to earthquake characteristics rather than variability in structural and mechanical properties, in terms of accelerations. Another outcome is that code-provided anchorage failure limitations are more vulnerable than the random vibration failure limitations of server equipment.

• Earthquakes and Structures
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• v.2 no.3
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• pp.207-232
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• 2011

The development of reliable earthquake mitigation plans and seismic risk management procedures can only be based on the establishment of comprehensive earthquake hazard and loss scenarios. Two cities, Grevena (Greece) and D$\ddot{u}$zce (Turkey), were used as case studies in order to apply a comprehensive methodology for the vulnerability and loss assessment of lifelines. The methodology has the following distinctive phases: detailed inventory, identification of the typology of each component and system, evaluation of the probabilistic seismic hazard, geotechnical zonation, ground response analysis and estimation of the spatial distribution of seismic motion for different seismic scenarios, vulnerability analysis of the exposed elements at risk. Estimating adequate earthquake scenarios for different mean return periods, and selecting appropriate vulnerability functions, expected damages of the water and waste water systems in D$\ddot{u}$zce and of the roadway network and waste water system of Grevena are estimated and discussed; comparisons with observed earthquake damages are also made in the case of D$\ddot{u}$zce, proving the reliability and the efficiency of the proposed methodology. The results of the present study constitute a sound basis for the development of efficient loss scenarios for lifelines and infrastructure facilities in seismic prone areas. The first part of this paper, concerning the estimation of the seismic ground motions, has been utilized in the companion paper by Kappos et al. (2010) in the same journal.

• Structural Engineering and Mechanics
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• v.29 no.2
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• pp.187-201
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• 2008

Earthquake induced hysteretic energy demand for a structure can be used as a limiting value of a certain performance level in seismic design of structures. In cases where it is larger than the hysteretic energy dissipation capacity of the structure, failure will occur. To be able to select the limiting value of hysteretic energy for a particular earthquake hazard level, it is required to define the variation of hysteretic energy in terms of probabilistic terms. This study focuses on the probabilistic evaluation of earthquake induced worst failure probability and approximate confidence intervals for inelastic single-degree-of-freedom (SDOF) systems with a typical steel moment connection based on hysteretic energy. For this purpose, hysteretic energy demand is predicted for a set of SDOF systems subject to an ensemble of moderate and severe EQGMs, while the hysteretic energy dissipation capacity is evaluated through the previously published cyclic test data on full-scale steel beam-to-column connections. The failure probability corresponding to the worst possible case is determined based on the hysteretic energy demand and dissipation capacity. The results show that as the capacity to demand ratio increases, the failure probability decreases dramatically. If this ratio is too small, then the failure is inevitable.