• Title/Summary/Keyword: Probabilistic Risk Assessment

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Development of Web-based Off-site Consequence Analysis Program and its Application for ILRT Extension (격납건물종합누설률시험 주기연장을 위한 웹기반 소외결말분석 프로그램 개발 및 적용)

  • Na, Jang-Hwan;Hwang, Seok-Won;Oh, Ji-Yong
    • Journal of the Korean Society of Safety
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    • v.27 no.5
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    • pp.219-223
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    • 2012
  • For an off-site consequence analysis at nuclear power plant, MELCOR Accident Consequence Code System(MACCS) II code is widely used as a software tool. In this study, the algorithm of web-based off-site consequence analysis program(OSCAP) using the MACCS II code was developed for an Integrated Leak Rate Test (ILRT) interval extension and Level 3 probabilistic safety assessment(PSA), and verification and validation(V&V) of the program was performed. The main input data for the MACCS II code are meteorological, population distribution and source term information. However, it requires lots of time and efforts to generate the main input data for an off-site consequence analysis using the MACCS II code. For example, the meteorological data are collected from each nuclear power site in real time, but the formats of the raw data collected are different from each site. To reduce the efforts and time for risk assessments, the web-based OSCAP has an automatic processing module which converts the format of the raw data collected from each site to the input data format of the MACCS II code. The program also provides an automatic function of converting the latest population data from Statistics Korea, the National Statistical Office, to the population distribution input data format of the MACCS II code. For the source term data, the program includes the release fraction of each source term category resulting from modular accident analysis program(MAAP) code analysis and the core inventory data from ORIGEN. These analysis results of each plant in Korea are stored in a database module of the web-based OSCAP, so the user can select the defaulted source term data of each plant without handling source term input data.

Capacity Credit and Reasonable ESS Evaluation of Power System Including WTG combined with Battery Energy Storage System (에너지저장장치와 결합한 WTG를 포함하는 전력계통의 Capacity Credit 평가 및 ESS 적정규모 평가방안)

  • Oh, Ungjin;Lee, Yeonchan;Choi, Jaeseok;Lim, Jintaek
    • The Transactions of The Korean Institute of Electrical Engineers
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    • v.65 no.6
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    • pp.923-933
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    • 2016
  • This paper proposes a new method for evaluating Effective Load Carrying Capability(ELCC) and capacity credit(C.C.) of power system including Wind Turbine Generator(WTG) combined with Battery Energy Storage System(BESS). WTG can only generate electricity power when the fuel(wind) is available. Because of fluctuation of wind speed, WTG generates intermittent power. In view point of reliability of power system, intermittent power of WTG is similar with probabilistic characteristics based on power on-off due to mechanical availability of conventional generator. Therefore, high penetration of WTG will occur difficulties in power operation. The high penetration of numerous and large capacity WTG can make risk to power system adequacy, quality and stability. Therefore, the penetration of WTG is limited in the world. In recent, it is expected that BESS installed at wind farms may smooth the wind power fluctuation. This study develops a new method to assess how much is penetration of WTG able to extended when Wind Turbine Generator(WTG) is combined with Battery Energy Storage System(BESS). In this paper, the assessment equation of capacity credit of WTG combined with BESS is formulated newly. The simulation program, is called GNRL_ESS, is developed in this study. This paper demonstrates a various case studies of ELCC and capacity credit(C.C.) of power system containing WTG combined with BESS using model system as similar as Jeju island power system. The case studies demonstrate that not only reasonable BESS capacity for a WTG but also permissible penetration percent of WTG combined with BESS and reasonable WTG capacity for a BESS can be decided.

A Study on the Feasibility of Evaluating the Complexity of KTX Driving Tasks (KTX 운전직무에 대한 복잡도 평가 - 타당성 연구)

  • Park, Jin-Kyun;Jung, Won-Dea;Jang, Seung-Cheol;Ko, Jong-Hyun
    • Journal of the Korean Society for Railway
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    • v.12 no.5
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    • pp.744-750
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    • 2009
  • According to the result of related studies, the degradation of human performance has been revealed as one of the most significant causes resulting in the safety of any human-involved system. This means that preventing the occurrence of accidents/incidents through avoiding the degradation of human performance is prerequisite for their successive operation. To this end, it is necessary to develop a plausible tool to evaluate the complexity of a task, which has been known as one of the decisive factors affecting the human performance. For this reason, in this paper, the complexity of tasks to be conducted by KTX drivers was quantified by TACOM measure that is enable to quantify the complexity of proceduralized tasks being used in nuclear power plants. After that, TACOM scores about the tasks of KTX drivers were compared with NASA-TLX scores that are responsible for the level of a subjective workload to be felt by KTX drivers.

Probabilistic Risk Assessment of Coastal Structures using LHS-based Reliability Analysis Method (LHS기반 신뢰성해석 기법을 이용한 해안구조물의 확률론적 위험도평가)

  • Huh, Jung-Won;Jung, Hong-Woo;Ahn, Jin-Hee;An, Sung-Wook
    • Journal of the Korea institute for structural maintenance and inspection
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    • v.19 no.6
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    • pp.72-79
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    • 2015
  • An efficient and practical reliability evaluation method is proposed for the coastal structures in this paper. It is capable of evaluating reliability of real complicated coastal structures considering uncertainties in various sources of design parameters, such as wave and current loads, resistance-related design variables including Young's modulus and compressive strength of the reinforced concrete, soil parameters, and boundary conditions. It is developed by intelligently integrating the Latin Hypercube sampling (LHS), Monte Carlo simulation (MCS) and the finite element method (FEM). The LHS-based MCS is used to significantly reduce the computational effort by limiting the number of simulation cycles required for the reliability evaluation. The applicability and efficiency of the proposed method were verified using a caisson-type breakwater structure in the numerical example.

Development of Fragility Curves for Slope Stability of Levee under Rapid Drawdown (수위급강하에 대한 제방 사면의 취약도 곡선 작성)

  • Cho, Sung-Eun
    • Journal of the Korean Geotechnical Society
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    • v.39 no.10
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    • pp.27-39
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    • 2023
  • To effectively manage flood risk, it is crucial to assess the stability of flood defense structures like levees under extreme flood conditions. This study focuses on the time-dependent probabilistic assessment of embankment slope stability when subjected to rapid water level drops. We integrate seepage analysis results from finite element analysis with slope stability analysis and employ Monte Carlo simulations to investigate the time-dependent behavior of the slope during rapid drawdown. The resulting probability of failure is used to develop fragility curves for the levee slope. Notably, the probability of slope failure remains low up to a specific water level, sharply increasing beyond that threshold. Furthermore, the fragility curves are strongly influenced by the rate of drawdown, which is determined through hydraulic analysis based on flood scenarios. Climate change has a significant impact on the stability of the water-side slope of the embankment due to water level fluctuations.

Development of comprehensive earthquake loss scenarios for a Greek and a Turkish city: seismic hazard, geotechnical and lifeline aspects

  • Pitilakis, Kyriazis D.;Anastasiadis, Anastasios I.;Kakderi, Kalliopi G.;Manakou, Maria V.;Manou, Dimitra K.;Alexoudi, Maria N.;Fotopoulou, Stavroula D.;Argyroudis, Sotiris A.;Senetakis, Kostas G.
    • Earthquakes and Structures
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    • v.2 no.3
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    • pp.207-232
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    • 2011
  • The development of reliable earthquake mitigation plans and seismic risk management procedures can only be based on the establishment of comprehensive earthquake hazard and loss scenarios. Two cities, Grevena (Greece) and D$\ddot{u}$zce (Turkey), were used as case studies in order to apply a comprehensive methodology for the vulnerability and loss assessment of lifelines. The methodology has the following distinctive phases: detailed inventory, identification of the typology of each component and system, evaluation of the probabilistic seismic hazard, geotechnical zonation, ground response analysis and estimation of the spatial distribution of seismic motion for different seismic scenarios, vulnerability analysis of the exposed elements at risk. Estimating adequate earthquake scenarios for different mean return periods, and selecting appropriate vulnerability functions, expected damages of the water and waste water systems in D$\ddot{u}$zce and of the roadway network and waste water system of Grevena are estimated and discussed; comparisons with observed earthquake damages are also made in the case of D$\ddot{u}$zce, proving the reliability and the efficiency of the proposed methodology. The results of the present study constitute a sound basis for the development of efficient loss scenarios for lifelines and infrastructure facilities in seismic prone areas. The first part of this paper, concerning the estimation of the seismic ground motions, has been utilized in the companion paper by Kappos et al. (2010) in the same journal.

Development of Intelligent Database Program for PSI/ISI Data Management of Nuclear Power Plant (원자력발전소 PSI/ISI 데이터 관리를 위한 지능형 데이터 베이스 프로그램 개발)

  • Park, Un-Su;Park, Ik-Keun;Um, Byong-Guk;Park, Yun-Won;Kang, Suk-Chul
    • Journal of the Korean Society for Nondestructive Testing
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    • v.18 no.5
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    • pp.389-397
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    • 1998
  • For an effective and efficient management of large amounts of preservice/inservice inspection(PSI/ISI) data in nuclear power plants, an intellegent Windows 95-based data management program was developed. This program enables the prompt extraction of previously conducted PSI/ISI conditions and results so that the time-consuming data management, painstaking data processing and analysis in the past are avoided. The program extracts, and the associated remedies. Furthermore, additional inspection data and comments can be easily added or deleted for subsequent PSI/ISI operation. Although the initial version of the program was applied to Kori nuclear power plant, this program can be equally applied to other nuclear power plant. And also this program can be used to offer the fundamental data for application of evaluation data related to fracture mechanics analysis(FMA), probabilistic reliability assessment(PRA) of PSI/ISI results, performance demonstration initiative(PDI) and risk-informed ISI based on probability of detection(POD) information of ultrasonic examination. Besides, the program can be further developed as a unique PSI/ISI data management expert system that can be apart of PSI/ISI data management expert system that can be a part of PSI/ISI Total Support System(TSS) for Korean nuclear power plants.

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Optimization of Contaminated Land Investigation based on Different Fitness-for-Purpose Criteria (조사목적별 기준에 부합하는 오염부지 조사방법의 최적화 방안에 관한 연구)

  • Jong-Chun Lee;Michael H. Ramsey
    • Economic and Environmental Geology
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    • v.36 no.3
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    • pp.191-200
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    • 2003
  • Investigations on the contaminated lands due to heavy metals from mining activities or hydrocarbons from oil spillage for example, should be planned based on specific fitness-for-purpose criteria(FFP criteria). A FFP criterion is site specific or varies with situation, based on which not only the data quality but also the decision quality can be determined. The limiting factors on the qualities can be, for example, the total budget for the investigation, regulatory guidance or expert's subjective fitness-for-purpose criterion. This paper deals with planning of investigation methods that can satisfy each suggested FFP criterion based on economic factors and the data quality. To this aim, a probabilistic loss function was applied to derive the cost effective investigation method that balances the measurement uncertainty, which estimates the degree of the data quality, with the decision quality. In addition, investigation planning methods when the objectives of investigations do not lie in the classification of the land but simply in producing the estimation of the mean concentration of the contaminant at the site(e.g. for the use in risk assessment), were also suggested. Furthermore, the efficient allocation of resources between sampling and analysis was also devised. These methods were applied to the two contaminated sites in the UK to test the validity of each method.

Decision Making of Seismic Performance Management for the Aged Road Facilities Based on Road-Network and Fragility Curve (취약도곡선을 이용한 도로망기반 노후도로시설물 내진성능관리 의사결정)

  • Kim, Dong-Joo;Choi, Ji-Hae
    • Journal of the Korea institute for structural maintenance and inspection
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    • v.25 no.5
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    • pp.94-101
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    • 2021
  • According to the Facility Management System (FMS) operated by the Korea Authority of Land & Infrastructure Safety, it is expected that the number of aging facilities that have been in use for more than 30 years will increase rapidly to 13.9% in 2019 and 34.5% in 2929, and end up with a social problem. In addition, with the revision of "Common Application of Seismic Design Criteria" by the Ministry of Public Administration and Security in 2017, it is mandatory to re-evaluate all existing road facilities and if necessary seismic reinforcement should be done to minimize the magnitude of earthquake damage and perform normal road functions. The seismic performance management-decision support technology currently used in seismic performance management practice in Korea only determines the earthquake-resistance reinforcement priority based on the qualitative index value for the seismic performance of individual facilities. However with this practice, normal traffic functions cannot be guaranteed. A new seismic performance management decision support technology that can provide various judgment data required for decision making is needed to overcome these shortcomings and better perform seismic performance management from a road network perspective.