• Title/Summary/Keyword: Probabilistic Life Cycle Cost Analysis

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Probabilistic Method of Risk Assessment in Voltage Sag Mitigation Studies (순간전압강하 보상을 위한 확률론적 위험도 분석 연구)

  • Han, Jong-Hoon;Jang, Gil-Soo;Park, Chang-Hyun
    • Journal of IKEEE
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    • v.14 no.3
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    • pp.236-243
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    • 2010
  • Power quality mitigation devices play an important role in lots of industrial segments. Although there were many devices available in the market, the selection of an appropriate device specially for voltage sags and interruptions mitigation has been a challenge in the utility and customer for several years. It usually depends on technical and economic characteristics of the device. Nevertheless, most mitigation method is selected by rule of thumb or empirical method. In this paper, the life cycle cost analysis for the probabilistic risk assesment of voltage sag mitigation method is performed using either the deterministic or probabilistic approach. The difference between a deterministic and a probabilistic cost analysis approach is illustrated with five different case studies. This paper not only provides a comparison of life cycle costing of various devices but it also indirectly shows the possible savings due to the mitigation of voltage sags in the form of a project balance chart.

Probabilistic optimal safety valuation based on stochastic finite element analysis of steel cable-stayed bridges

  • Han, Sung-Ho;Bang, Myung-Seok
    • Smart Structures and Systems
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    • v.10 no.2
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    • pp.89-110
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    • 2012
  • This study was intended to efficiently perform the probabilistic optimal safety assessment of steel cable-stayed bridges (SCS bridges) using stochastic finite element analysis (SFEA) and expected life-cycle cost (LCC) concept. To that end, advanced probabilistic finite element algorithm (APFEA) which enables to execute the static and dynamic SFEA considering aleatory uncertainties contained in random variable was developed. APFEA is the useful analytical means enabling to conduct the reliability assessment (RA) in a systematic way by considering the result of SFEA based on linearity and nonlinearity of before or after introducing initial tensile force. The appropriateness of APFEA was verified in such a way of comparing the result of SFEA and that of Monte Carlo Simulation (MCS). The probabilistic method was set taking into account of analytical parameters. The dynamic response characteristic by probabilistic method was evaluated using ASFEA, and RA was carried out using analysis results, thereby quantitatively calculating the probabilistic safety. The optimal design was determined based on the expected LCC according to the results of SFEA and RA of alternative designs. Moreover, given the potential epistemic uncertainty contained in safety index, failure probability and minimum LCC, the sensitivity analysis was conducted and as a result, a critical distribution phase was illustrated using a cumulative-percentile.

Life Cycle Cost Analysis at Design Stage of Cable Stayed Bridges based on the Performance Degradation Models (성능저하모델에 기초한 사장교의 설계단계 생애주기비용 분석)

  • Koo, Bon Sung;Han, Sang Hoon;Cho, Choong Yuen
    • KSCE Journal of Civil and Environmental Engineering Research
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    • v.33 no.5
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    • pp.2081-2091
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    • 2013
  • Recently, the demand on the practical application of life-cycle cost effectiveness for design and rehabilitation of civil infrastructure is rapidly growing unprecedently in civil engineering practice. Accordingly, in the 21st century, it is almost obvious that life-cycle cost together with value engineering will become a new paradigm for all engineering decision problems in practice. However, in spite of impressive progress in the researches on the LCC, the most researches have only focused on the Deterministic or Probabilistic LCC analysis approach and general bridge at design stage. Thus, the goal of this study is to develop a practical and realistic methodology for the Life-Cycle Cost LCC-effective optimum decision-making based on reliability analysis of bridges at design stage. The proposed updated methodology is based on the concept of Life Cycle Performance(LCP) which is expressed as the sum of present value of expected direct/indirect maintenance costs with expected optimal maintenance scenario. The updated LCC methodology proposed in this study is applied to the optimum design problem of an actual highway bridge with Cable Stayed Bridges. In conclusion, based on the application of the proposed methods to an actual example bridge, it is demonstrated that a updated methodology for performance-based LCC analysis proposed in this thesis, shown applicably in practice as a efficient, practical, process LCC analysis method at design stage.

Development of evaluation method for the railroad track life cycle considering environmental effect factors (환경영향인자를 고려한 궤도수명산정 기법 개발)

  • Kong, Jung-Sik;Jeong, Min-Chul;Kim, Jung-Hoon;Lee, Won-Woo
    • Proceedings of the KSR Conference
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    • 2011.05a
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    • pp.167-172
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    • 2011
  • Generally, the analysis of railroad wear data is most effective method for the efficient railway maintenance. The wear of railway track affects loss of rough ride, noise or vibration of train and traveling safety. Moreover as the track is worn away, this promotes destruction of structural mechanism of rail track which can bring about increasing of rail track maintenance cost drastically. For this reason, it is very important and interested research subject to design railway track structure and to analyse train movement mechanism based on systematic analysis of the reasons causing rail wear possible in real field. In this research, for the efficient maintenance, Life Cycle Performance of rail track and maintenance characteristics are computed considering some track components such as track type, contracting type, sleeper type and roadbed type. Time - Wear probabilistic distribution relationship as well as multiple regression analysis based on time, curvature and wear data are computed to predict the service life remainder of railway track and to be adapted to safety assessment.

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Correlation Effect of Maintenances on Probabilistic Service Life Management (확률론적 구조물 수명관리의 유지보수 상관관계 영향 평가)

  • Kim, Sunyong
    • Journal of the Korea institute for structural maintenance and inspection
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    • v.20 no.1
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    • pp.48-55
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    • 2016
  • The assessment and prediction of service life of a structure are usually under uncertainty so that rational probabilistic concepts and methods have to be applied. Based on these rational assessment and prediction, optimum maintenance strategies to minimize the life-cycle cost and/or maximize the structural safety can be established. The service life assessment and prediction considering maintenance actions generally includes effects of maintenance types and times of the structural components on the service life extensions of structural system. Existing researches on the service life management have revealed the appropriate system modeling considering the correlation among the components is required for system reliability analysis and probabilistic service life estimation. However, the study on correlation among the maintenance actions is still required. This paper deals with such a study for more effective and efficient service life management. In this paper, both the preventive and essential maintenances are considered for the extended service life estimation and management.

Evaluation of the Railroad Track Life Cycle Based on the Metro Rail Wear Data Regression Analysis (지하철 마모 데이터 회귀분석을 통한 궤도 수명 평가)

  • Jeong, Min-Chul;Kim, Jung-Hoon;Lee, Jee-Ha;Kang, Yun-Suk;Kong, Jung-Sik
    • Journal of the Korea institute for structural maintenance and inspection
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    • v.14 no.4
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    • pp.86-93
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    • 2010
  • The wear of railway track affects loss of rough ride, noise or vibration of train and traveling safety. Moreover as the track is worn away, this promotes destruction of structural mechanism of rail track which can bring about increasing of rail track maintenance cost drastically. For this reason, it is very important and interested research subject to design railway track structure and to analyse train movement mechanism based on systematic analysis of the reasons causing rail wear possible in real field. In this research, for the efficient maintenance, Life Cycle Performance of rail track and maintenance characteristics are computed considering some track components such as track type, contracting type, sleeper type and roadbed type. Time - Wear probabilistic distribution relationship as well as multiple regression analysis based on time, curvature and wear data are computed to predict the service life remainder of railway track and to be adapted to safety assessment.

Comparative Evaluation between Cool Roof and Green Roof in terms of Installation Cost: a Case Study of KNU Campus (설비 투자비용의 관점에서 쿨루프와 옥상녹화의 비교 평가: 경북대학교 캠퍼스 사례를 중심으로)

  • Kim, Jun-Woo;Um, Jung-Sup
    • Journal of Environmental Impact Assessment
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    • v.21 no.6
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    • pp.927-939
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    • 2012
  • Cool roofs are currently being emerged as one of important mechanism to save energy in relation to the building. Although green roof has already gained nation-wide recognition as a typical method of energy saving in the roof, this approach did not provide a realistic evidence that is economically feasible in terms of installation cost. This research is primarily intended to compare installation cost between the two techniques. This research proposes a comparative evaluation framework in a more objective and quantitative way for an installation cost between the two techniques. Kyungpook National University (KNU) was selected as a survey objective and an exhaustive and realistic comparison of installation cost between the two techniques was conducted, based on Life Cycle Cost analysis (initial investment cost, maintenance cost, dismantling and waste disposal expense). It was possible to identify that installation cost of cool roofs is 4.7 times cheaper than that of green roof. Also present value based on probabilistic approach was identified as 0.25 (4.95) higher than the installation cost on the assumption of constant price and interest. It is expected that much more installation cost for the large scale green roof will be required since small-size green roof selected as a survey objective in this study could be operated under less initial installation and maintenance condition.

Development of Disaster Risk Analysis System for Environment Friendly Road (친환경 도로노선의 재해위험도 평가시스템 개발)

  • Song, Min-Tae;Kang, Ho-Geun;Kim, Heung-Rae;Lee, Tae-Ock;Lee, Han-Joo
    • International Journal of Highway Engineering
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    • v.14 no.5
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    • pp.123-132
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    • 2012
  • PURPOSES: This study is to investigate the consideration which relates with a disaster from route alignment process and proposed the method it will be able to evaluate a disaster danger fixed quantity. METHODS: Use the landslide disaster probabilistic map of GIS based and in about landslide occurrence of the route alignment at the time of neighboring area after evaluating a risk fixed quantity, it compared LCC expense in about each alternative route. It developed the system it will be able to analyze a LCC and a disaster risk in about the alternative route. In order to verify a risk analytical algorithm and the system which are developed it selected national road 59 lines on the demonstrative route and it analyzed a disaster risk. RESULTS: Demonstrative route not only the disaster risk to be it will be able to compare a disaster risk fixed quantity like the economical efficiency degree in compliance with LCC expense productions it compared and there being the designer will be able to decide the alternative route, it confirmed. CONCLUSIONS: Roads can be designed by considering occurs repeatedly landslides and debris flow caused by disasters in advance and expect to be able to effect that can reduce the overall cost to recover losses caused by the disaster, and temporally loss is expected.

Stochastic Disaggregation and Aggregation of Localized Uncertainty in Pavement Deterioration Process (포장파손과정의 지역적 불확실성에 대한 확률적 분해와 조합)

  • Han, Daeseok
    • KSCE Journal of Civil and Environmental Engineering Research
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    • v.33 no.4
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    • pp.1651-1664
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    • 2013
  • Precise analysis on deterioration processes of road pavements is not so simple matter due to severe uncertainty originated from a lot of explanatory variables engaged in. For those reasons, most analytical models for pavement deterioration prediction have often preferred to probabilistic approaches than deterministic models. However, the general probabilistic approaches that treat overall characteristics of population or entire sample would not be suitable for providing detail or localized information on their changing process. Considering the aspects, this paper aimed to suggest a stochastic disaggregation method to analyze the localized deterioration speeds and its variances changed by time and condition states. In addition, life expectancies and their uncertainty were estimated by probabilistic algorithm using the disaggregated stochastic process. For an empirical study, pavement inspection data (crack) accumulated from 2003 to 2010 from Korean national highway network was applied. This study can contribute to securing reliability of life cycle cost analysis, which is one of the primary analyses in road asset management, with much advanced deterioration forecasting functions. In addition, it would be meaningful trials as fundamental research for preventive maintenance strategy that demands essential understanding on changing process of the deterioration speed of pavement.

A Study on the Adequate Capacity of Substation Transformer for Offshore Wind Farm (해상풍력발전단지의 해상변전소 변압기 적정 용량에 관한 연구)

  • Moon, Won-Sik;Jo, Ara;Huh, Jae-Sun;Bae, In-Su;Kim, Jae-Chul
    • Journal of the Korean Institute of Illuminating and Electrical Installation Engineers
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    • v.29 no.8
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    • pp.83-89
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    • 2015
  • This study suggests the methodology to decide the number and adequate capacity of substation transformer in a large-scale offshore wind farm (OWF). The recent trend in transformer capacity of offshore substation is analyzed in many European offshore wind farm sites prior to entering the studies. In order to carry out the economic evaluation for the transformer capacity we present the cost models which consist of investment, operation, and expected energy not supplied (EENS) cost as well as the probabilistic wind power model of wind energy that combines the wind speed with wind turbine output characteristics for a exact calculation of energy loss cost. Economic assessment includes sensitivity analysis of parameters which could impact the 400-MW OWF: average wind speed, availability, discount rate, energy cost, and life-cycle.