• Journal of Environmental Science International
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• v.22 no.8
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• pp.965-977
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• 2013

Reliable long-term streamflow forecasting is invaluable for water resource planning and management which allocates water supply according to the demand of water users. It is necessary to get probabilistic forecasts to establish risk-based reservoir operation policies. Probabilistic forecasts may be useful for the users who assess and manage risks according to decision-making responding forecasting results. Probabilistic forecasting of seasonal inflow to Andong dam is performed and assessed using selected predictors from sea surface temperature and 500 hPa geopotential height data. Categorical probability forecast by Piechota's method and logistic regression analysis, and probability forecast by conditional probability density function are used to forecast seasonal inflow. Kernel density function is used in categorical probability forecast by Piechota's method and probability forecast by conditional probability density function. The results of categorical probability forecasts are assessed by Brier skill score. The assessment reveals that the categorical probability forecasts are better than the reference forecasts. The results of forecasts using conditional probability density function are assessed by qualitative approach and transformed categorical probability forecasts. The assessment of the forecasts which are transformed to categorical probability forecasts shows that the results of the forecasts by conditional probability density function are much better than those of the forecasts by Piechota's method and logistic regression analysis except for winter season data.

• 제어로봇시스템학회:학술대회논문집
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• 2002.10a
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• pp.82.1-82
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• 2002

$\textbullet$ Nearest neighbor filter $\textbullet$ Probabilistic nearest neighbor filter $\textbullet$ Probabilistic nearest neighbor filter incorporating numbers of validated measurements $\textbullet$ Probability density function of the NDS $\textbullet$ Simulation results in a clutter environment to verify the performances $\textbullet$ Sensitivity analysis for the unknown spatial clutter density

• Phonetics and Speech Sciences
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• v.15 no.1
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• pp.1-7
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• 2023

This study investigated the influences of probabilistic accessibility of the word being produced - as determined by its usage frequency and neighborhood density - on native and high-proficiency L2 speakers' realization of six English monophthong vowels. The native group hyperarticulated the vowels over an expanded acoustic space when the vowel occurred in words with low frequency and high density, supporting the claim that vowel forms are modified in accordance with the probabilistic accessibility of words. However, temporal expansion occurred in words with greater accessibility (i.e., with high frequency and low density) as an effect of low phonotactic probability in low-density words, particularly in attended speech. This suggests that temporal modification in the opposite direction may be part of the phonetic characteristics that are enhanced in communicatively driven focus realization. Conversely, none of these spectral and temporal patterns were found in the L2 group, thereby indicating that even the high-proficiency L2 speakers may not have developed experience-based sensitivity to the modulation of sub-categorical phonetic details indexed with word-level probabilistic information. The results are discussed with respect to how phonological representations are shaped in a word-specific manner for the sake of communicatively driven lexical intelligibility, and what factors may contribute to the lack of native-like sensitivity in L2 speech.

• Journal of the Korean Society for Precision Engineering
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• v.11 no.1
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• pp.192-200
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• 1994

The methodology of a simple probabilistic fatigue crack under random loading is proposed. Using the crack closure concept, the crack opening stress is assumed to be constant during random loading. The loading history was analyzed to determine the probability density functions, probability distribution functions and other related parameters for the probabilistic fatigue crack growth analysis. Fatigue crack growth using the exisiting available data was predicted by the proposed probabilistic analysis and compared with experimental data.

• International Journal of Concrete Structures and Materials
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• v.19 no.1E
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• pp.11-16
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• 2007

Recently, probabilistic neural network (PNN) has been proposed to predict the compressive strength of concrete for the known effect of improvement on PNN by the iteration method. However, an empirical method has been incorporated in the PNN technique to specify its smoothing parameter, which causes significant uncertainty in predicting the compressive strength of concrete. In this study, a modified probabilistic neural network (MPNN) approach is hence proposed. The global probability density function (PDF) of variables is reflected by summing the heterogeneous local PDFs which are automatically determined by the individual standard deviation of each variable. The proposed MPNN is applied to predict the compressive strength of concrete using actual test data from a concrete company. The estimated results of MPNN are compared with those of the conventional PNN. MPNN showed better results than the conventional PNN in predicting the compressive strength of concrete and provided promising results for the probabilistic approach to predict the concrete strength by using the individual standard deviation of a variable.

• Proceedings of the KSRS Conference
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• 2004.10a
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• pp.721-725
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• 2004

Multiple-count problem is occurred when rectangle objects span across several buckets. The Cumulative Density (CD) histogram is a technique which solves multiple-count problem by keeping four sub-histograms corresponding to the four points of rectangle. Although it provides exact results with constant response time, there is still a considerable issue. Since it is based on a query window which aligns with a given grid, a number of errors may be occurred when it is applied to real applications. In this paper, we proposed selectivity estimation techniques using the generalized cumulative density histogram based on two probabilistic models: (1) probabilistic model which considers the query window area ratio, (2) probabilistic model which considers intersection area between a given grid and objects. In order to evaluate the proposed methods, we experimented with real dataset and experimental results showed that the proposed technique was superior to the existing selectivity estimation techniques. The proposed techniques can be used to accurately quantify the selectivity of the spatial range query on rectangle objects.

• Tunnel and Underground Space
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• v.6 no.1
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• pp.30-38
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• 1996

A two dimensional analysis program for groundwater flow in fractured network was developed to analyze the influence of discontinuity characteristics on groundwater flow. This program involves the generation of discontinuities and also connectivity analysis. The discontinuities were generated by the probabilistic density function(P.D.F.) reflecting the characteristics of discontinuities. And the fracture network model was completed through the connectivity analysis. This program also involves the analysis of groundwater flow through the discontinuity network. The result of numerical experiment shows that the equivalent hydraulic conductivity increased and became closer to isotropic as the density and trace length increased. And hydraulic head decreased along the fracture zone because of much water-flow. The grouting increased the groundwater head around cavern. An analysis of groundwater flow through discontinuity network was performed around underground oil storage cavern which is now under construction. The probabilistic density functions(P.D.F) were obtained from the investigation of the discontinuity trace map. When the anisotropic hydraulic conductivity is used, the flow rate into the cavern was below the acceptable value to maintain the hydraulic containment. But when the isotropic hydraulic conductivity is used, the flow rate was above the acceptable value.

• Journal of Korean Society on Water Environment
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• v.24 no.3
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• pp.345-353
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• 2008

In order to design storage-based non-point source management facilities, the aspect of statistical features of the entire precipitation time series should be considered since non-point source pollutions are delivered by continuous rainfall runoffs. The 3-parameter mixed exponential probability density function instead of traditional single-parameter exponential probability density function is applied to represent the probabilistic features of long-term precipitation time series and model urban stormwater runoff. Finally, probability density functions of water quality control basin overflow are derived under two extreme intial conditions. The 31-year continuous precipitation time series recorded in Busan are analyzed to show that the 3-parameter mixed exponential probability density function gives better resolution.

• Journal of the Korean Society for Precision Engineering
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• v.16 no.6
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• pp.100-107
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• 1999

This paper describes a probabilistic remaining life assessment program for the creep crack growth. The probabilistic life assessment program is developed to increase the reliability of life assessment. The probabilistic life assessment involves some uncertainties, such as, initial crack size, material properties, and loading condition, and a triangle distribution function is used for random variable generation. The resulting information provides the engineer with an assessment of the probability of structural failure as a function of operating time given the uncertainties in the input data. This study forms basis of the probabilistic life assessment technique and will be extended to other damage mechanisms.

• Journal of Korea Multimedia Society
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• v.16 no.9
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• pp.1077-1088
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• 2013

As broadcasting is the process that a node sends a packet to all nodes in the network. it is basic process used for discovering of a routes to a node and disseminating of control information message in Mobile Ad hoc NETwork (MANET). In this paper, we propose dynamically adjusted probabilistic mechanism based on distance ratio and node density for broadcasting in MANETs. The distance ratio can be calculated as the ratio of the radio strength length to the distance from sender of a node, and node density can be get from 1-hop nodes of neighbours. A mobile node receiving broadcast packets determines the probability of rebroadcasting considering distance ratio and node density of itself. Rebroadcast probability will be set as low value to a node which is located in nearby area of sender and has high 1-hop node density, So it reduces packets transmission caused by the early die-out of rebroadcast packets. Compared with the simple flooding and fixed probabilistic flooding by simulation, our approach shows better performances results. Proposed algorithm can reduce the rebroadcast packet delivery more than 30% without scanting reachability, where as it shows up to 96% reachability compared with flooding.