• Journal of Communications and Networks
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• 제18권5호
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• pp.818-825
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• 2016

Network management and anomaly detection are challenges in high-speed networks due to the high volume of packets that has to be analysed. Flow-based analysis is a scalable method which reduces the high volume of network traffic by dividing it into flows. As sampling methods are extensively used in flow generators such as NetFlow, the impact of sampling on the performance of flow-based analysis needs to be investigated. Monitoring using sampled traffic is a well-studied research area, however, the impact of sampling on flow-based anomaly detection is a poorly researched area. This paper investigates flow sampling methods and shows that these methods have negative impact on flow-based anomaly detection. Therefore, we propose an efficient probabilistic flow sampling method that can preserve flow traffic distribution. The proposed sampling method takes into account two flow features: Destination IP address and octet. The destination IP addresses are sampled based on the number of received bytes. Our method provides efficient sampled traffic which has the required traffic features for both flow-based anomaly detection and monitoring. The proposed sampling method is evaluated using a number of generated flow-based datasets. The results show improvement in preserved malicious flows.

• Nuclear Engineering and Technology
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• 제49권2호
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• pp.360-372
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• 2017

Many advanced reactor designs rely on passive systems to fulfill safety functions during accident sequences. These systems depend heavily on boundary conditions to induce a motive force, meaning the system can fail to operate as intended because of deviations in boundary conditions, rather than as the result of physical failures. Furthermore, passive systems may operate in intermediate or degraded modes. These factors make passive system operation difficult to characterize within a traditional probabilistic framework that only recognizes discrete operating modes and does not allow for the explicit consideration of time-dependent boundary conditions. Argonne National Laboratory has been examining various methodologies for assessing passive system reliability within a probabilistic risk assessment for a station blackout event at an advanced small modular reactor. This paper provides an overview of a passive system reliability demonstration analysis for an external event. Considering an earthquake with the possibility of site flooding, the analysis focuses on the behavior of the passive Reactor Cavity Cooling System following potential physical damage and system flooding. The assessment approach seeks to combine mechanistic and simulation-based methods to leverage the benefits of the simulation-based approach without the need to substantially deviate from conventional probabilistic risk assessment techniques. Although this study is presented as only an example analysis, the results appear to demonstrate a high level of reliability of the Reactor Cavity Cooling System (and the reactor system in general) for the postulated transient event.

• Nuclear Engineering and Technology
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• 제49권2호
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• pp.306-312
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• 2017

The purpose of this research is to introduce the technical standard of accident sequence precursor (ASP) analysis, and to propose a case study using the dynamic-probabilistic safety assessment (D-PSA) approach. The D-PSA approach can aid in the determination of high-risk/low-frequency accident scenarios from all potential scenarios. It can also be used to investigate the dynamic interaction between the physical state and the actions of the operator in an accident situation for risk quantification. This approach lends significant potential for safety analysis. Furthermore, the D-PSA approach provides a more realistic risk assessment by minimizing assumptions used in the conventional PSA model so-called the static-PSA model, which are relatively static in comparison. We performed risk quantification of a steam generator tube rupture (SGTR) accident using the dynamic event tree (DET) methodology, which is the most widely used methodology in D-PSA. The risk quantification results of D-PSA and S-PSA are compared and evaluated. Suggestions and recommendations for using D-PSA are described in order to provide a technical perspective.

• 한국전산구조공학회:학술대회논문집
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• 한국전산구조공학회 1997년도 가을 학술발표회 논문집
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• pp.24-31
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• 1997

Recently, in Korea, demand for establishment of systematic risk assessment techniques for construction projects has increased, especially after the large construction failures occurred during construction such as New Haengju Bridge construction projects, subway construction projects, gas explosion accidents etc. Most of existing risk analysis modeling techniques such as Event Tree Analysis and Fault Tree Analysis may not be available for realistic risk assessment of construction projects because it is very complex and difficult to estimate occurrence frequency and failure probability precisely due to a lack of data related to the various risks inherent in construction projects like natural disasters, financial and economic risks, political risks, environmental risks as well as design and construction-related risks. Therefor the main objective of this paper is to suggest systematic probabilistic risk assessment model and demonstrate an approach for probabilistic risk assessment using advanced Event Tree Analysis introducing Fuzzy set theory concepts. It may be stated that the Fuzzy Event Tree AnaIysis may be very usefu1 for the systematic and rational risk assessment for real constructions problems because the approach is able to effectively deal with all the related construction risks in terms of the linguistic variables that incorporate systematically expert's experiences and subjective judgement.

• 대한조선학회논문집
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• 제55권2호
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• pp.93-102
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• 2018

Quantitative Risk Assessment (QRA) has been used in shipping and offshore industries for many years, supporting the decision-making process to guarantee safe running at different stages of design, fabrication and throughout service life. The assessments of a risk perspective are informed by the frequency of events (probability) and the associated consequences. As the number of offshore platforms increases, so does the length of subsea pipelines, thus there is a need to extend this approach and enable the subsea industry to place more emphasis on uncertainties. On-board operations can lead to objects being dropped on subsea pipelines, which can cause leaks and other pipeline damage. This study explains how to conduct hit frequency analyses of subsea pipelines, using historical data, and how to obtain a finite number of scenarios for the consequences analysis. An example study using probabilistic methods is used.

• 교육시설 논문지
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• 제25권1호
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• pp.3-12
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• 2018

Educational facilities are more uncertain about maintenance costs due to their comprehensive and long life-cycle compared to commercial buildings. In addition, maintenance of the existing post management system can not maintain the original function of education facilities continuously and economically. In order to overcome this problem, it is necessary to analyze the repair and replacement cost for the uncertainty factor in maintenance. This study propose a model to determine repair and maintenance cost and cycle of educational facility based on probabilistic estimation concept. For the analysis, Monte Carlo simulation, a probabilistic analysis method, was applied based on the repair and maintenance history data of the educational facilities in Florida. The results of this study can be used as a guideline for quantitative facility management and facility management research.

• International Journal of Internet, Broadcasting and Communication
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• 제13권1호
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• pp.134-142
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• 2021

This paper proposes a probabilistic method in analyzing timing measurements to determine the periodicity of real-time tasks. The proposed method fills a gap in existing techniques, which either concentrate on the estimation of worst-case execution times, or do not consider the stochastic behavior of the real-time scheduler. Our method is based on the Z-test statistical analysis which calculates the probability of the measured period to fall within a user-defined standard deviation limit. The distribution of the measured period should satisfy two conditions: its center (statistical mean) should be equal to the scheduled period of the real-time task, and that it should be symmetrical with most of the samples focused on the center. To ensure that these requirements are met, a data adjustment process, which omits any outliers in the expense of accuracy, is presented. Then, the Z-score of the distribution according to the user-defined deviation limit provides a probability which determines the periodicity of the real-time task. Experiments are conducted to analyze the timing measurements of real-time tasks based on real-time Linux extensions of Xenomai and RT-Preempt. The results indicate that the proposed method is able to provide easier interpretation of the periodicity of real-time tasks which are valuable especially in comparing the performance of various real-time systems.

• Earthquakes and Structures
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• 제22권2호
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• pp.157-168
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• 2022

A moment-independent importance measure analysis approach was introduced to quantify the effects of structural uncertainty parameters on probabilistic seismic demands of simply supported girder bridges. Based on the probability distributions of main uncertainty parameters in bridges, conditional and unconditional bridge samples were constructed with Monte-Carlo sampling and analyzed in the OpenSees platform with a series of real seismic ground motion records. Conditional and unconditional probability density functions were developed using kernel density estimation with the results of nonlinear time history analysis of the bridge samples. Moment-independent importance measures of these uncertainty parameters were derived by numerical integrations with the conditional and unconditional probability density functions, and the uncertainty parameters were ranked in descending order of their importance. Different from Tornado diagram approach, the impacts of uncertainty parameters on the whole probability distributions of bridge seismic demands and the interactions of uncertainty parameters were considered simultaneously in the importance measure analysis approach. Results show that the interaction of uncertainty parameters had significant impacts on the seismic demand of components, and in some cases, it changed the most significant parameters for piers, bearings and abutments.

• Earthquakes and Structures
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• 제21권5호
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• pp.461-475
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• 2021

Strategic structures are a potential target of the growing terrorist attacks, so their performance under explosion hazard has been paid attention by researchers in the last years. In this regard, the aim of this study is to evaluate the blast-resistance performance of lead-rubber bearing (LRB) base isolation system based on a probabilistic framework while uncertainties related to the charge weight and standoff distance have been taken into account. A sensitivity analysis is first performed to show the effect of explosion uncertainty on the response of base-isolated buildings. The blast fragility curve is then developed for three base-isolated steel moment-resisting buildings with different heights of 4, 8 and 12 stories. The results of sensitivity analysis show that although LRB has the capability of reducing the peak response of buildings under explosion hazard, this control system may lead to increase in the peak response of buildings under some explosion scenarios. This shows the high importance of probabilistic-based assessment of isolated structures under explosion hazard. The blast fragility analysis shows effective performance of LRB in mitigating the probability of failure of buildings. Therefore, LRB can be introduced as effective control system for the protection of buildings from explosion hazard regarding uncertainty effect.

• 응용통계연구
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• 제34권6호
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• pp.905-922
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• 2021

라벨 없이 진행되는 비지도 학습 중 하나인 군집분석은 자료에 어떤 그룹이 내포되어 있는지 사전 지식이 없을 경우에 군집을 발굴하고, 군집 간의 특성 차이와 군집 안에서의 유사성을 분석하고자 할 때 유용한 방법이다. 기본적인 군집분석 중 하나인 K-means 방법은 변수의 개수가 많아질 때 잘 동작하지 않을 수 있으며, 군집에 대한 해석도 쉽지 않은 문제가 있다. 따라서 고차원 자료의 경우 주성분 분석과 같은 차원 축소 방법을 사용하여 변수의 개수를 줄인 후에 K-means 군집분석을 행하는 Tandem 군집분석이 제안되었다. 하지만 차원 축소 방법을 이용해서 찾아낸 축소 차원이 반드시 군집에 대한 구조를 잘 반영할 것이라는 보장은 없다. 특히 군집의 구조와는 상관없는 변수들의 분산 또는 공분산이 클 때, 주성분 분석을 통한 차원 축소는 오히려 군집의 구조를 가릴 수 있다. 이에 따라 군집분석과 차원 축소를 동시에 진행하는 방법들이 제안되어 왔다. 그 중에서도 본 연구에서는 De Soete와 Carroll (1994)이 제안한 방법론을 확률적인 모형으로 바꿔 군집분석을 진행하는 확률적 reduced K-means를 제안한다. 모의실험 결과 차원 축소를 배제한 군집분석과 Tandem 군집분석보다 더 좋은 군집을 형성함을 알 수 있었고 군집 당 표본 크기에 비해 변수의 개수가 많은 자료에서 기존의 비 확률적 reduced K-means 군집분석에 비해 우수한 성능을 확인했다. 보스턴 자료에서는 다른 군집분석 방법론보다 명확한 군집이 형성됨을 확인했다.