• New & Renewable Energy
• /
• v.10 no.1
• /
• pp.41-49
• /
• 2014

For a proper valuation of wind power project, it is necessary to consider volatilities of key parameters such as annual energy production, electricity sales price, and long term interest rate. Real option methodology allows to calculate option values of these parameters. Volatilities to be considered in wind project valuation are 1) annual energy production (AEP) estimation due to meteorological variation and estimation errors in wind speed distribution, 2) changes in system marginal price (SMP), and 3) interest rate fluctuation of project financing which provides refinancing option to be exercised during a loan tenor for commercial scale projects. Real option valuation turns out to be more than half of the sales value based on a case study for a FIT scheme wind project that was sold to a financial investor.

• Environmental and Resource Economics Review
• /
• v.3 no.1
• /
• pp.81-105
• /
• 1993

• Proceedings of the Korea Society for Energy Engineering kosee Conference
• /
• 2007.11a
• /
• pp.269-275
• /
• 2007

• The Journal of Fisheries Business Administration
• /
• v.42 no.3
• /
• pp.1-13
• /
• 2011

It is necessary to set up a standard of estimation for annual unit price of sale and cost, damage rate for calculating compensation against fishery damage objectively. Two items on the unit price and cost have regulations but the damage rate has not, so it may occurred some problems such as reasonability and balance because the estimation should be handling by an appraiser's knowledge and experience. This study has analyzed using Regression model and searched variable costs and fixed costs about each items appraisers to operate in the present. It is compare profit damage index is calculated by an estimated model and an appraised example. This analysis showed highly 23-30% estimated model more than appraised example. It means the overestimation for fishery damage. This difference has caused by limited data, lack of sample, much difference in the standard deviation, and has not classified each kind of business and weight of coastal fishery, the overestimation more than what expected. This study has analyzed that the applied rate of fixed and variable cost in relation to the compensation in the cost of coastal fishery is very valuable.

• Journal of Energy Engineering
• /
• v.22 no.3
• /
• pp.245-249
• /
• 2013

This paper attempts to estimate the kerosene demand function in Korea over the period 1981-2012. As the kerosene demand function provides us information on the pattern of consumer's kerosene consumption, it can be usefully utilized in predicting the impact of policy variables such as kerosene price and forecasting the demand for kerosene. We apply least absolute deviations and least median squares estimation methods as a robust approach to estimating the parameters of the kerosene demand function. The results show that short-run price and income elasticities of the kerosene demand are estimated to be -0.468 and 0.409, respectively. They are statisitically significant at the 1% level. The short-run price and income elasticities portray that demand for kerosene is price- and income-inelastic. This implies that the kerosene is indispensable goods to human-being's life, thus the kerosene demand would not be promptly adjusted to responding to price and/or income change. However, long-run price and income elasticities reveal that the demand for kerosene is price- and income-elastic in the long-run.

• Korean Journal of Construction Engineering and Management
• /
• v.7 no.5
• /
• pp.167-176
• /
• 2006

It was found that Korean Standard of Estimate which has been used as the only basis of cost estimate of public construction projects had some side effects such as jerry-build construction and over-estimation because it failed to reflect the current price and the state-of-the-art construction methods in a changing construction environment. Therefore, the government decided to gradually introduce historical construction cost into cost estimate of public construction projects from 2004. This paper presents analytic criteria and a process model for deducing more current and reasonable historical construction cost for contract items from not only previous contract prices but also all of the other bid prices that were not contracted. The procedure of estimating actual unit cost proposed in this paper focuses on the removal of abnormal values including strategically too low or high prices and the time correction. In addition, basic research is conducted for the correction of actual unit cost through the analysis of fluctuation of bid price depending on bidding types and rates of successful bid. It is anticipated that the effective use of the proposed process model for estimating actual unit cost would make the cost estimation more current and reasonable.

• Journal of Distribution Science
• /
• v.11 no.10
• /
• pp.73-79
• /
• 2013

Purpose - This study examines the impact of oil price volatility on economic activities in Korea. The new millennium has seen a deregulation in the crude oil market, which invited immense capital inflow into Korea. It has also raised oil price levels and volatility. Drawing on the recent theoretical literature that emphasizes the role of volatility, this paper attends to the asymmetric changes in economic growth in response to the oil price movement. This study further examines several key macroeconomic variables, such as interest rate, production, and inflation. We come to the conclusion that oil price volatility can, in some part, explain the structural changes. Research design, data, and methodology - We use two methodological frameworks in this study. First, in regards to the oil price uncertainty, we use an Exponential-GARCH (Exponential Generalized Autoregressive Conditional Heteroskedasticity: EGARCH) model estimate to elucidate the asymmetric effect of oil price shock on the conditional oil price volatility. Second, along with the estimation of the conditional volatility by the EGARCH model, we use the estimates in a VECM (Vector Error Correction Model). The study thus examines the dynamic impacts of oil price volatility on industrial production, price levels, and monetary policy responses. We also approximate the monetary policy function by the yield of monetary stabilization bond. The data collected for the study ranges from 1990: M1 to 2013: M7. In the VECM analysis section, the time span is split into two sub-periods; one from 1990 to 1999, and another from 2000 to 2013, due to the U.S. CFTC (Commodity Futures Trading Commission) deregulation on the crude oil futures that became effective in 2000. This paper intends to probe the relationship between oil price uncertainty and macroeconomic variables since the structural change in the oil market became effective. Results and Conclusions - The dynamic impulse response functions obtained from the VECM show a prolonged dampening effect of oil price volatility shock on the industrial production across all sub-periods. We also find that inflation measured by CPI rises by one standard deviation shock in response to oil price uncertainty, and lasts for the ensuing period. In addition, the impulse response functions allude that South Korea practices an expansionary monetary policy in response to oil price shocks, which stems from oil price uncertainty. Moreover, a comparison of the results of the dynamic impulse response functions from the two sub-periods suggests that the dynamic relationships have strengthened since 2000. Specifically, the results are most drastic in terms of industrial production; the impact of oil price volatility shocks has more than doubled from the year 2000 onwards. These results again indicate that the relationships between crude oil price uncertainty and Korean macroeconomic activities have been strengthened since the year2000, which resulted in a structural change in the crude oil market due to the deregulation of the crude oil futures.

• Journal of Korean Society of Transportation
• /
• v.18 no.1
• /
• pp.27-34
• /
• 2000

This study analyzes the price elasticities of airline Passenger demand through the 'Stated Preference' technique which uses survey data. Because the domestic airfare has been regulated by the government. it is not easy to derive Price elasticity through the usual regression analysis with aggregate data and thus a special methodology is required for elasticity estimation. Therefore, in this study we estimated the Price elasticities of domestic air passenger demand and the modal share change rates to the alternative modes with logit model and sample enumeration method, by analyzing the survey data on air Passengers' demand behavior about the mode choice between air-rail. air-bus, and air-car. As the results, the estimated price elasticities are in the range of -0.6~-0.9, and rail is mainly chosen as an alternative mode. bus is chosen Partly, and car is barely used.

• Journal of the Korean Society of Clothing and Textiles
• /
• v.21 no.7
• /
• pp.1139-1152
• /
• 1997

Clothing consumption expenditure (UX) data of Korean consumers during the period of 1965 to 1993 were analyzed by time series analysis technique. According to the results of regression analysis, current income and UX of the year before showed most significant influences on the current UX. This means that the absolute and permanent income hypotheses can be accepted in case of clothing expenditures. However the effect of income decreased as the economy developed. The relative price of clothing had weak or no influence on clothing expenditures. It was also found out that CSX of the year before, the change of income, relative price of clothing ware the factors that affected clothing expenditures. From the estimation of Houthakker-Taylor state adjustment model, a negative stock coefficient was obtained. That is, clothing is subject to an inventor effect and Korean consumers regard clothing as one of the durable goods. To define whether clothing is a "luxury" or a "necessity", income and relative price elasticity of clothing expenditures were estimated. Income elasticity of clothing is slightly below 1.0 in case of national aggregate expenditures, and slightly above 1.0 in case of urban consumers' expenditures. Income elasticity has declined over time. Meanwhile the coefficient of price elasticity is not significant, indicating that the relative price of clothing have little connection with clothing expenditure.lothing expenditure.

• Korean Journal of Agricultural Science
• /
• v.39 no.2
• /
• pp.227-242
• /
• 2012

Accurate estimation of milk production cost is very important for dairy farmers in establishing strategies for business management (e.g. planning a program for milk production, deciding the size of business and investment, determining the milk price for sale). Since the estimated cost of milk production is used as an important index to determine the basal price of milk in Korea, there has been much interest and debate on the method used to estimate milk production cost among the stakeholder. This study was thus carried out to identify problems in the current methodology for estimating cost of milk production, and to find a better way to improve it. We propose several alternatives and better ways to improve the current method for estimating cost of milk production. Estimation of the income and cost per head should be based on the number of cattle converted to grown cows. Cost estimation per liter of milk should be made for both whole milk and 3.4% milk fat corrected milk. The value of purchased cows and raised replacement heifers should be the same as their market value. The productive life span of cows should be less 4 years, and the terminal or salvage value of cows needs to be 30 to 40% less than her initial value. When calculating depreciation of cows over the productive life span, however, the salvage value should be 0 or 1 Korean won. On calculating labor costs, the farm labor wage corresponding to the average wage of nonfarm industrial workers should be assumed. Beside of these, better estimation procedures for other items are also given. The proposed methods from this study should improve the accuracy of estimation of milk production cost and help to achieve consensus among the stakeholder.