• Title/Summary/Keyword: Price risk

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A global-scale assessment of agricultural droughts and their relation to global crop prices (전 지구 농업가뭄 발생특성 및 곡물가격과의 상관성 분석)

  • Kim, Daeha;Lee, Hyun-Ju
    • Journal of Korea Water Resources Association
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    • v.56 no.12
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    • pp.883-893
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    • 2023
  • While South Korea's dependence on imported grains is very high, droughts impacts from exporting countries have been overlooked. Using the Evaporative Stress Index (ESI), this study globally analyzed frequency, extent, and long-term trends of agricultural droughts and their relation to natural oscillations and global crop prices. Results showed that global-scale correlations were found between ESI and soil moisture anomalies, and they were particularly strong in crop cultivation areas. The high correlations in crop cultivation areas imply a strong land-atmosphere coupling, which can lead to relatively large yield losses with a minor soil moisture deficits. ESI showed a clear decreasing trend in crop cultivation areas from 1991 to 2022, and this trend may continue due to global warming. The sharp increases in the grain prices in 2012 and 2022 were likely related to increased drought areas in major grain-exporting countries, and they seemed to elevate South Korea's producer price index. This study suggests the need for drought risk management for grain-exporting countries to reduce socioeconomic impacts in South Korea.

Studies on the Appraisal of Stumpage Value in the Forest Land - With Respect to Kyung-Ju Area - (산원지(山元地) 임목평가(林木平価)에 관(関)한 연구(研究) - 경주지방(慶州地方)을 중심(中心)으로 -)

  • Rha, Sang Soo;Park, Tai Sik
    • Journal of Korean Society of Forest Science
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    • v.52 no.1
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    • pp.37-49
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    • 1981
  • The purpose of the study is to find out the objective method of valuation on the forest stands through the analysis of logging costs that is positively related to timber production. The two forest (Amgog, Whangryoung), located nereby, but forest type, logging and skidding conditions being slightly different, were slected to carry out the study. The objective timber stumpage value were determined by investigating the appropriate timber production costs and profits of logging operations. The main result obtained in this study are as follows: 1. The rate of logging cost in consisting of timber market price is 13.15% in the area of Amgog logging place and 19.48% in Whangryoung. 2. The rate of the other production cost excluding logging cost is 15.36% in the area of Amgog logging place and 28.85% in Whangryoung. 3. The total rate of timber production cost in consisting of the market price is more than 28.51% in the area of Amgog logging place and 48.33% in Whangryoung, 4. Though the productivity of forest land is affected by the selection of tree species, tending, treatments and effective management of forest land, the more important problem is improvement of logging condition. 5. The rate of production cost in timber price is so high that we should endeavore to improve the productivity of labour and its quality, and minimize the difference of piece work per day in accordance to the various site condition. 6. Although the profit of forest industry is related to the period of recapturing investment, it is more closely related to the working condition, risk of investment and continuous change of social investment interest. 7. If the right variables which are related to the timber market, are objectively obtained, the stumpage value of mature forests can be objectively caculated by applying straight line discounting method or compound discounting method in caculating the stump to market price.

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Estimation of Economic Losses on the Agricultural Sector in Gangwon Province, Korea, Based on the Baekdusan Volcanic Ash Damage Scenario (백두산 화산재 피해 시나리오에 따른 강원도 지역 농작물의 경제적 피해 추정)

  • Lee, Yun-Jung;Kim, Su-Do;Chun, Joonseok;Woo, Gyun
    • Journal of the Korean earth science society
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    • v.34 no.6
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    • pp.515-523
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    • 2013
  • The eastern coast of South Korea is expected to be damaged by volcanic ash when Mt. Baekdusan volcano erupts. Even if the amount of volcanic ash is small, it can be fatal on the agricultural sector withering many plants and causing soil acidification. Thus, in this paper, we aim to estimate agricultural losses caused by the volcanic ash and to visualize them with Google map. To estimate the volcanic ash losses, a damage assessment model is needed. As the volcanic ash hazard depends on the kind of a crops and the ash thickness, the fragility function of damage assessment model should represent the relation between ash thickness and damage rate of crops. Thus, we model the fragility function using the damage rate for each crop of RiskScape. The volcanic ash losses can be calculated with the agricultural output and the price of each crop using the fragility function. This paper also represents the estimated result of the losses in Gangwon province, which is most likely to get damaged by volcanic ashes in Korea. According to the result with gross agricultural output of Gangwon province in 2010, the amount of volcanic ash losses runs nearly 635,124 million wons in Korean currency if volcanic ash is accumulated over four millimeters. This amount represents about 50% of the gross agricultural output of Gangwon province. We consider the damage only for the crops in this paper. However, a volcanic ash fall has the potential to damage the assets for a farm, including the soil fertility and installations. Thus, to estimate the total amount of volcanic ash damage for the whole agricultural sectors, these collateral damages should also be considered.

A Study on Integrated Logistic Support (통합병참지원에 관한 연구)

  • 나명환;김종걸;이낙영;권영일;홍연웅;전영록
    • Proceedings of the Korean Reliability Society Conference
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    • 2001.06a
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    • pp.277-278
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    • 2001
  • The successful operation of a product In service depends upon the effective provision of logistic support in order to achieve and maintain the required levels of performance and customer satisfaction. Logistic support encompasses the activities and facilities required to maintain a product (hardware and software) in service. Logistic support covers maintenance, manpower and personnel, training, spares, technical documentation and packaging handling, storage and transportation and support facilities.The cost of logistic support is often a major contributor to the Life Cycle Cost (LCC) of a product and increasingly customers are making purchase decisions based on lifecycle cost rather than initial purchase price alone. Logistic support considerations can therefore have a major impact on product sales by ensuring that the product can be easily maintained at a reasonable cost and that all the necessary facilities have been provided to fully support the product in the field so that it meets the required availability. Quantification of support costs allows the manufacturer to estimate the support cost elements and evaluate possible warranty costs. This reduces risk and allows support costs to be set at competitive rates.Integrated Logistic Support (ILS) is a management method by which all the logistic support services required by a customer can be brought together in a structured way and In harmony with a product. In essence the application of ILS:- causes logistic support considerations to be integrated into product design;- develops logistic support arrangements that are consistently related to the design and to each other;- provides the necessary logistic support at the beginning and during customer use at optimum cost.The method by which ILS achieves much of the above is through the application of Logistic Support Analysis (LSA). This is a series of support analysis tasks that are performed throughout the design process in order to ensure that the product can be supported efficiently In accordance with the requirements of the customer.The successful application of ILS will result in a number of customer and supplier benefits. These should include some or all of the following:- greater product uptime;- fewer product modifications due to supportability deficiencies and hence less supplier rework;- better adherence to production schedules in process plants through reduced maintenance, better support;- lower supplier product costs;- Bower customer support costs;- better visibility of support costs;- reduced product LCC;- a better and more saleable product;- Improved safety;- increased overall customer satisfaction;- increased product purchases;- potential for purchase or upgrade of the product sooner through customer savings on support of current product.ILS should be an integral part of the total management process with an on-going improvement activity using monitoring of achieved performance to tailor existing support and influence future design activities. For many years, ILS was predominantly applied to military procurement, primarily using standards generated by the US Government Department of Defense (DoD). The military standards refer to specialized government infrastructures and are too complex for commercial application. The methods and benefits of ILS, however, have potential for much wider application in commercial and civilian use. The concept of ILS is simple and depends on a structured procedure that assures that logistic aspects are fully considered throughout the design and development phases of a product, in close cooperation with the designers. The ability to effectively support the product is given equal weight to performance and is fully considered in relation to its cost.The application of ILS provides improvements in availability, maintenance support and longterm 3ogistic cost savings. Logistic costs are significant through the life of a system and can often amount to many times the initial purchase cost of the system.This study provides guidance on the minimum activities necessary to Implement effective ILS for a wide range of commercial suppliers. The guide supplements IEC60106-4, Guide on maintainability of equipment Part 4: Section Eight maintenance and maintenance support planning, which emphasizes the maintenance aspects of the support requirements and refers to other existing standards where appropriate. The use of Reliability and Maintainability studies is also mentioned in this study, as R&M is an important interface area to ILS.

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A Case Study about PET/CT Collaboration Operation (PET/CT 공동운영에 대한 사례 연구)

  • Kim, Chang-Ho;Pyo, Sung-Jae
    • The Korean Journal of Nuclear Medicine Technology
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    • v.14 no.2
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    • pp.87-92
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    • 2010
  • Purpose: In 2003, we decided to buy a PET/CT, at the time, it was the latest cancer diagnostic medical equipment. Equipment company was offered the marketing of collaboration operation because the highly cost of PET/CT. However, this hospital's choice was own purchase way. In this study we evaluated the collaboration operation way by post-mortem analysis to the current situation. Materials and Methods: From 2004 until 2008, five years, we investigate the revenue analysis the number of PET/CT cases about own purchase way and collaboration operation way according (ABC costing). Results: The year 2004, own purchase way is 4 billion 9 thousand 2 hundred million won in deficit, the collaboration operation way is 1 billion 1 thousand 7 hundred million won in deficit. The year 2005, own purchase way is 1 billion 5 hundred million won in deficit, collaboration operation way is 8 thousand 7 hundred million won in deficit. However, the year 2006, own purchase way is 5 billion 1thousand 3 hundred million won in surplus, collaboration operation way is 9 thousand 9 hundred million won in deficits. The year 2007 and 2008, revenue of own purchase way is more increased but the collaboration operation way is more decreased. From the year 2004 to 2008, subtotal of own purchase way is 10 billion 8 thousand 8 hundred won in surplus, sub-total of collaboration operation way is 6 billion 7 thousand million won in deficit. Conclusion: Own purchase way has been a big benefit occurs and to reflect the equipment price, the collaboration operation way became to deficit continues. In other words, the problem of collaboration operation way showed us. When you buy the high cost Equipment, consideration will be risk and economic analysis of variance, the appropriate of the initial investment cost, clinical diagnostic needs and etc.

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A Study on the Impact of Competency of Technology: Based Startups on Performance Using ETRI Technology (ETRI 기술을 활용한 기술창업기업의 역량이 경영성과에 미치는 영향에 관한 연구)

  • Bae, Hongbeom;Song, Minkyung;Kim, Seokyun
    • Asia-Pacific Journal of Business Venturing and Entrepreneurship
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    • v.13 no.1
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    • pp.61-72
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    • 2018
  • In a rapidly changing environment, such as globalization, technology-based startups are attracting attention as a new growth engine that creates jobs and added value and promotes national competitiveness. At present, countries around the world recognize the development of technology-based start-up companies as a major policy task and strive to make policy efforts to revitalize start-ups and strengthen innovation capabilities of companies. Especially, in order to secure superiority in the fierce market competition, it is becoming more and more important for the growth and development of technological start-up companies that pioneer new markets and energize the economy based on original and innovative technologies. Therefore, it is necessary to study systematically and plan for survival and growth of technology start-up companies. The purpose of this study is to investigate the entrepreneurial spirit of Innovation, Entrepreneurship, Risk Sensibility and Technology Innovation Capacity, R&D ability, Technology Accumulation Capacity, Technology Innovation System, The results of this study are as follows. the effects of marketing ability on technical performance and financial performance are examined. First, the CEO 's entrepreneurial spirit has an effect on the technical performance and financial performance of the management performance. Second, the technology accumulation ability and the R & D capability have a positive effect on the technical performance. Finally, it was found that the ability to commercialize the technology commercialization capacity affects both technical performance and financial performance. The policy implications that can be gained through this are as follows. First, by strengthening cooperation between universities and research institutes, related technology entrepreneurship education programs should be upgraded so that technology entrepreneurs or preliminary entrepreneurs can capture business opportunities and secure market price competitiveness. Secondly, R & D for the purpose of start-up should be developed and marketable technology should be developed and linked to direct start-up. Third, it is necessary to activate the program to match the company with the honorary retirement manpower of large enterprises and SMEs, which have more experience in field experience than the founders.

Optimization of Support Vector Machines for Financial Forecasting (재무예측을 위한 Support Vector Machine의 최적화)

  • Kim, Kyoung-Jae;Ahn, Hyun-Chul
    • Journal of Intelligence and Information Systems
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    • v.17 no.4
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    • pp.241-254
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    • 2011
  • Financial time-series forecasting is one of the most important issues because it is essential for the risk management of financial institutions. Therefore, researchers have tried to forecast financial time-series using various data mining techniques such as regression, artificial neural networks, decision trees, k-nearest neighbor etc. Recently, support vector machines (SVMs) are popularly applied to this research area because they have advantages that they don't require huge training data and have low possibility of overfitting. However, a user must determine several design factors by heuristics in order to use SVM. For example, the selection of appropriate kernel function and its parameters and proper feature subset selection are major design factors of SVM. Other than these factors, the proper selection of instance subset may also improve the forecasting performance of SVM by eliminating irrelevant and distorting training instances. Nonetheless, there have been few studies that have applied instance selection to SVM, especially in the domain of stock market prediction. Instance selection tries to choose proper instance subsets from original training data. It may be considered as a method of knowledge refinement and it maintains the instance-base. This study proposes the novel instance selection algorithm for SVMs. The proposed technique in this study uses genetic algorithm (GA) to optimize instance selection process with parameter optimization simultaneously. We call the model as ISVM (SVM with Instance selection) in this study. Experiments on stock market data are implemented using ISVM. In this study, the GA searches for optimal or near-optimal values of kernel parameters and relevant instances for SVMs. This study needs two sets of parameters in chromosomes in GA setting : The codes for kernel parameters and for instance selection. For the controlling parameters of the GA search, the population size is set at 50 organisms and the value of the crossover rate is set at 0.7 while the mutation rate is 0.1. As the stopping condition, 50 generations are permitted. The application data used in this study consists of technical indicators and the direction of change in the daily Korea stock price index (KOSPI). The total number of samples is 2218 trading days. We separate the whole data into three subsets as training, test, hold-out data set. The number of data in each subset is 1056, 581, 581 respectively. This study compares ISVM to several comparative models including logistic regression (logit), backpropagation neural networks (ANN), nearest neighbor (1-NN), conventional SVM (SVM) and SVM with the optimized parameters (PSVM). In especial, PSVM uses optimized kernel parameters by the genetic algorithm. The experimental results show that ISVM outperforms 1-NN by 15.32%, ANN by 6.89%, Logit and SVM by 5.34%, and PSVM by 4.82% for the holdout data. For ISVM, only 556 data from 1056 original training data are used to produce the result. In addition, the two-sample test for proportions is used to examine whether ISVM significantly outperforms other comparative models. The results indicate that ISVM outperforms ANN and 1-NN at the 1% statistical significance level. In addition, ISVM performs better than Logit, SVM and PSVM at the 5% statistical significance level.

Study on economic effects of outsourcing of food materials on the hotel kitchen - Focus on cooking Western food in the first class hotel - (식재료 아웃소싱이 경제적 주방에 미치는 영향에 관한 연구 - 특1급호텔 양식조리를 중심으로 -)

  • 성태종
    • Journal of Applied Tourism Food and Beverage Management and Research
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    • v.13 no.2
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    • pp.45-69
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    • 2002
  • This study is designed to examine feasibility and limitation of outsourcing in cooking Western food in a hotel, to interpret importance of outsourcing(eg. outside order, outside procurement, outside supply) in a broad sense in order to reinforce the core capacity in the cooking department, and to know whether the cooking human power is efficiently used and how much the chefs recognize outsourcing of food materials. As many companies conduct restructuring to cut down its size, the reduction of human power led the Western food cooking in the hotel to lower core capacities, lower quality, and lower efficiency. In addition, the sagging morale of chefs undermined creativity. To change from the traditional kitchen to an economic kitchen needs to look into importance of outsourcing, cognitive attitude of chefs, relation with outside suppliers. Here suggests performance of positive changes in the structure The study examined feasibility and limitation of outsourcing in the hotel kitchen as well as chefs' cognitive attitude toward outsourcing of food materials to reinforce core capabilities of the hotel kitchen. 1. Companies of outsourcing are selected according to variability of price conditions, flexibility of contract conditions, popularity of the outsourcing company, and reputation of the outsourcing company. 2. The importance of outsourcing in the Western food cooking is divided into 4 factors such as standard of selecting outsourcing companies, policies of cooking manu, quality of cooking, and quantity of cooking. 3. The most feasible section in outsourcing of food materials is a process of kneading flour for bread, which shows that many Western-food chefs expect to put higher possibility of outsourcing on the kneading. In other words, when it comes to confectionery and bakery, there are many outside expert processing companies supplying high quality products. In the order of outsourcing feasibility, sauce is followed by processed vegetable, garnish of main dish, and soup. The least feasible section in outsourcing of food materials is appetize. Appetize includes a concept of a improvised dish and needs speed. Due to its color, freshness, and sensibility of taste, the appetize plays a key role in the Western food cooking. 4. When outsourcing is taken in place, the highest risk is to lower the inner cooking skills. Therefore chefs in charge of the Western food sequently recognize both internal problems including storage of cooking skills, unstability of layoffs, and loss of cooperation between departments, and external problems including inferior goods, difficulty of differentiating manu, delay of delivery, and expiration date. It shows that most of the Western food chefs consider risks of the internal problems at first. 5. A effective outsourcing needs appropriate selection of outsourcing companies, maintenance of credibility, active communication, check and management of hygiene. However regardless of their position or career, chefs in charge of the Western food have the same cognitive attitude toward selecting successful outsourcing companies after the outsourcing system is enforced. The core of cooking, or a final stage in the full process of so-called artistic cooking, should be treated with insourcing. Reduction of several cooking processes resulted in shortened cooking time, increased efficiency, faster cooking, cutting the waiting-lines, and finally more room for customers. The outsourcing system can reduce or eliminate the following processes in cooking: buying various food materials, checking, storing, preparing, and processing. Especially in the Western food cooking department of a hotel, the outsourcing system should be enforced to make an economic kitchen and to efficiently manage it. Wow it's time to change from the traditional kitchen to an economic kitchen in the hotel cooking department. For that, the cooking department should become a small but strong organization by outsourcing except its core work.

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Design and Analysis of Online Advertising Expenditure Model based on Coupon Download (쿠폰 다운로드를 기준으로 하는 온라인 광고비 모델의 설계 및 분석)

  • Jun, Jung-Ho;Lee, Kyoung-Jun
    • Journal of Intelligence and Information Systems
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    • v.16 no.4
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    • pp.1-19
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    • 2010
  • In offline environment, unlike traditional advertising model through TV, newspaper, and radio, online advertising model draws instantaneous responses from potential consumers and it is convenient to assess. This kind of characteristics of Internet advertising model has driven the growth of advertising model among various Internet business models. There are, conventionally classified, CPM (Cost Per Mile), CPC (Cost Per Click), and CPS (Cost Per Sales) models as Internet advertising expenditure model. These can be examined in manners regarding risks that stakeholders should stand and degree of responsibility. CPM model that is based on number of advertisement exposure is mechanically exposed to users but not actually recognized by users resulting in risk of wasted expenditure by advertisers without any advertising effect. While on aspect of media, CPS model that is based on conversion action is the most risky model because of the conversion action such as product purchase is determined by capability of advertisers not that of media. In this regard, while there are issue of CPM and CPS models disadvantageously affecting only one side of Internet advertising business model value network, CPC model has been evaluated as reasonable both to advertisers and media, and occupied the largest segment of Internet advertising market. However, CPC model also can cause fraudulent behavior such as click fraud because of the competition or dishonest amount of advertising expenditure. On the user aspect, unintentionally accessed advertisements can lead to more inappropriate expenditure from advertisers. In this paper, we suggest "CPCD"(Cost Per Coupon Download) model. This goes beyond simple clicking of advertisements and advertising expenditure is exerted when users download a coupon from advertisers, which is a concept in between CPC and CPS models. To achieve the purpose, we describe the scenario of advertiser perspective, processes, participants and their benefits of CPCD model. Especially, we suggest the new value in online coupon; "possibility of storage" and "complement for delivery to the target group". We also analyze the working condition for advertiser by a comparison of CPC and CPCD models through advertising expenditure simulation. The result of simulation implies that the CPCD model suits more properly to advertisers with medium-low price products rather than that of high priced goods. This denotes that since most of advertisers in CPC model are dealing with medium-low priced products, the result is very interesting. At last, we contemplate applicability of CPCD model in ubiquitous environment.

An Empirical Study on the Long-Run Performance of Cross-Listings by Multinational Corporations (다국적기업 해외상장의 장기적인 성과에 관한 연구)

  • Kim, Dong-Soon;Park, Sang-An
    • The Korean Journal of Financial Management
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    • v.21 no.2
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    • pp.27-63
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    • 2004
  • Since the 1980s, many multinational corporations have been issuing stocks on foreign stock exchanges, not only to enhance their investor base and liquidity, but also to diversify risks. The phenomenon has also been intensified by the rapid financial globalization and securitization trends. The main purpose of this study is to look into the long-run performance of MNCs' cross-listings of stocks on foreign stock exchanges. We use the event study and cross-sectional regression methods. We obtained some interesting empirical results about the long-run effect of cross-listings. First before the listing data the effect of cross-listing is to increase the underlying stock Vice in the local market. It may be caused by expectation of lower risk and cost of capital. However, after the listing data the stock price has been declining, even if it is not significant. Second, we examine the difference in the long-run cross-listing effect, which may be caused by the listing direction. When listing is made from a less developed market to a more developed market, the effect is better than that in the reverse direction. Furthermore, the effect is worse, when the listing company's home country is the U.S. Third, there is a negative relation between CARs and underlying stock liquidity in the local market, So it implies that a firm, whose underlying stocks are very liquid in the local market should carefully value cross-listing based upon the cost and benefit analysis. Last, but not the least we find that the long-un cross-listing effect is better, when a listing firm's ROE is higher.

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