• Proceedings of the Korean Institute of Information and Commucation Sciences Conference
• /
• 2022.05a
• /
• pp.15-17
• /
• 2022

In the aftermath of the avian influenza that occurred from the second half of 2020 to the beginning of 2021, 17.8 million laying hens were slaughtered. Although the government invested more than 100 billion won for egg imports as a measure to stabilize prices, the effort was not that easy. The sharp volatility of egg prices negatively affected both consumers and poultry farmers, so measures were needed to stabilize egg prices. To this end, the egg prices were successfully predicted in this study by using the analysis algorithm of a machine learning regression. For price prediction, a total of 8 independent variables, including monthly broiler chicken production statistics for 2012-2021 of the Korean Poultry Association and the slaughter performance of the national statistics portal (kosis), have been selected to be used. The Root Mean Square Error (RMSE), which indicates the difference between the predicted price and the actual price, is at the level of 103 (won), which can be interpreted as explaining the egg prices relatively well predicted. Accurate prediction of egg prices lead to flexible adjustment of egg production weeks for laying hens, which can help decision-making about stocking of laying hens. This result is expected to help secure egg price stability.

• Journal of the Korean Data and Information Science Society
• /
• v.20 no.6
• /
• pp.1049-1060
• /
• 2009

The expansion of volatility in Korean Stock Market made it more difficult for the individual to invest directly and increased the weight of indirect investment through a fund. The purpose of this study is to construct the EIF(enhanced index fund) model achieves an excessive return among several types of fund. For this purpose, this paper propose portfolio optimization model to manage an index fund by using GA(genetic algorithm), and apply the trading amount and the closing price of standard index to earn an excessive return add to index fund return. The result of the empirical analysis of this study suggested that the proposed model is well represented the trend of KOSPI 200 and the new investment strategies using this can make higher returns than Buy-and-Hold strategy by an index fund, if an appropriate number of stocks included.

• Journal of Korea Technology Innovation Society
• /
• v.14 no.3
• /
• pp.578-598
• /
• 2011

This study estimates the value of photovoltaic core material technology, which is getting attention as a clean energy source. The estimation is based on the real option pricing model (ROPM). This study has two main contributions. The first is in the methodology. The process of modeling volatility, which is the most complicated stage in ROPM, is greatly simplified by using the stock price as a covariate representing the volatility of the real option's basic asset. The second contribution is the application of technology. In this study, the economic value of poly-silicon, a core material in the photovoltaic industry and recently surging in demand, is evaluated as a manufacturing technology. In a case study of a company in the photovoltaic industry, the stochastic process of a basic asset follows geometric Brownian motion (GBM), and the option value of firm A's poly-silicon manufacturing technology is estimated at 3.4 trillion won.

• Journal of the Korean Data and Information Science Society
• /
• v.28 no.2
• /
• pp.251-260
• /
• 2017

The option pricing of Black와 Scholes (1973) and Merton (1973) has been widely reported to fail to reflect the time varying volatility of financial time series in many real applications. For example, Duan (1995) proposed GARCH option pricing method through Monte Carlo simulation. However, financial time series is known to follow a fat-tailed and leptokurtic probability distribution, which is not explained by Duan (1995). In this paper, in order to overcome such defects, we proposed the option pricing method based on GARCH models with normal mixture errors. According to the analysis of KOSPI200 option price data, the option pricing based on GARCH models with normal mixture errors outperformed the option pricing based on GARCH models with normal errors in the unstable period with high volatility.

• Korean Journal of Construction Engineering and Management
• /
• v.22 no.1
• /
• pp.90-97
• /
• 2021

Saemangeum Development is the largest national project in South Korea, which has been developed for an agricultural, economic and tourist area for 30 years from 1987. In order to convert power sources that used to depend on nuclear and thermal power to eco-friendly for carbon reduction, the government plans to construct a 2.1GW floating photovoltaic project by investing 4.6 trillion won, as a public-private project. For success of the Saemangeum floating photovoltaic project, economic feasibility should be checked. This study defined the factors (construction cost, electricity selling price, power generation and maintenance cost) that give a effect to the volatility of the floating photovoltaic payoffs, and analyzed the volatility of payoffs during 20 years operation period. NPV and option value of the project were calculated by applying an option to abandon. According to NPV analysis, it is determined that projects are difficult to invest. But this project has economic feasibility through real options analysis. This study is expected to help decision-makers in the economic analysis of floating photovoltaic projects by using the real options analysis.

• The Korean Journal of Financial Management
• /
• v.21 no.2
• /
• pp.125-151
• /
• 2004

This study tests the price discovery from US Treasury bond markets to Korean bond markets using the daily returns of Korean bond data (CD, 3-year T-note, 5-year T-note, 5-year corporate note) and US treasury bond markets (3-month T-bill, 5-year T-note 10-year T-bond) from July 1, 1998 to December 31, 2003. For further research, we divide full data into two sub-samples on the basis of the start-up of bond valuation system in Korean bond market July 1, 2000, employing uni-variate AR(1)-GARCH(1,1)-M model. The main results are as follows. First the volatility spillover effects from US Treasury bond markets (3-month T-bill, 5-year T-note, 10-year T-bond) to Korean Treasury and Corporate bond markets (CD, 3-year T-note, 5-year T-note, 5-year corporate note) are significantly found at 1% confidence level. Second, the price discovery function from US bond markets to Korean bond markets in the sub-data of the pre-bond valuation system exists much stronger and more persistent than those of the post-bond valuation system. In particular, the role of 10-year T-bond compared with 3-month T-bill and 5-year T-note is outstanding. We imply these findings result from the international capital market integration which is accelerated by the broad opening of Korean capital market after 1997 Korean currency crisis and the development of telecommunication skill. In addition, these results are meaningful for bond investors who are in charge of capital asset pricing valuation, risk management, and international portfolio management.

• International Commerce and Information Review
• /
• v.13 no.3
• /
• pp.77-95
• /
• 2011

This paper investigates the relationship between export and economic variables such as trade insurance, world economy activity, relative price, unemployment rate, exchange rate volatility, using monthly data. I employ Johansen cointegration methodology since the model must be stationary to avoid the spurious results. The results indicate that there is a long-run relationship between export and variables. Also, the empirical analysis of cointegrating vector using the CCR, DOLS, FMOLS reveals that the increases of trade insurance has positive relations and the increases of exchange rate volatility have negative relations with export. Especially, DOLS based on Monte Carlo simulations, of this estimator being superior in small samples compared to a number of alternative estimators, as well as being able not only to accommodate higher orders of integration but also to account for possible simultaneity within regressors of a potential system. This paper also applies impulse-response functions to get the additional information regarding the responses of the export to the shocks of the variables. The result indicates that export positively to trade insurance and then decay fast compare with exchange rate volatility. Consequently, trade insurance plays the role of trade policy for export promotion in Korea. Whereas, increase of exchange risk result in reduction of export. Therefore, the support of trade insurance should be expanded and the stabilization of the foreign exchange market must be done for the export promotion.

• Journal of Digital Convergence
• /
• v.15 no.2
• /
• pp.135-144
• /
• 2017

This study is to identify the growth rate and volatility of logistics related firms in the stock market. To do this, we used monthly data for 197 years from June 2000 to October 2016 by selecting KOSPI and Transport & Storage(T&S), KOSDAQ, Transportation(TRANS) index. The purpose of this study is to compare the T&S and TRANS stock index returns with the KOSPI and KOSDAQ index. And we are to judge whether the development potential of the logistics industry and the value of the investment of related companies in the future is high. For this purpose, we will analyze the basic statistics, correlation and growth rate of each index, and compare T&S and TRANS with market returns. Analysis result, for the past 197 months logistics related T&S and TRANS have been higher than market returns. The correlation was highly related to TRANS and T & S in KOSPI, but it was not related to KOSDAQ. TRANS represents high risk and high return, while KOSDAQ represents high risk and low return market. TRANS is considered to be an efficient investment. We expect the future development of logistics related industries and T & S and TRANS to show a high rate of increase compared to the market returns.

• The Journal of Society for e-Business Studies
• /
• v.26 no.3
• /
• pp.33-53
• /
• 2021

In the crossroads of social change caused by the spread of the Fourth Industrial Revolution and the prolonged COVID-19, the Korean government announced the Digital New Deal policy on July 14, 2020. The Digital New Deal policy's primary goal is to create new businesses by accelerating digital transformation in the public sector and industries around data, networks, and artificial intelligence technologies. However, in a rapidly changing social environment, information asymmetry of the future benefits of technology can cause differences in the public's ability to analyze the direction and effectiveness of policies, resulting in uncertainty about the practical effects of policies. On the other hand, the media leads the formation of discourse through communicators' role to disseminate government policies to the public and provides knowledge about specific issues through the news. In other words, as the media coverage of a particular policy increases, the issue concentration increases, which also affects public decision-making. Therefore, the purpose of this study is to verify the dynamic relationship between the media coverage and the stock market on the Korean government's digital New Deal policy using Granger causality, impulse response functions, and variance decomposition analysis. To this end, the daily stock turnover ratio, daily price-earnings ratio, and EWMA volatility of digital technology-based companies related to the digital new deal policy among KOSDAQ listed companies were set as variables. As a result, keyword search volume, daily stock turnover ratio, EWMA volatility have a bi-directional Granger causal relationship with media coverage. And an increase in media coverage has a high impact on keyword search volume on digital new deal policies. Also, the impulse response analysis on media coverage showed a sharp drop in EWMA volatility. The influence gradually increased over time and played a role in mitigating stock market volatility. Based on this study's findings, the amount of media coverage of digital new deals policy has a significant dynamic relationship with the stock market.

• Journal of Digital Convergence
• /
• v.13 no.11
• /
• pp.45-55
• /
• 2015

This study used for KOSPI, KOSDAQ, entertainment culture and digital contents index that is related to cultural contents industry. There was investigated the each stock price index and return trends for a total 597 weeks to July 2015 from March 2004. They looked the content-related stocks about investment worth to comparative analysis the return, volatility, correlation, synchronization phenomena etc. of each stock index. When we saw the growth potential of the cultural contents industry forward, looked forward to the investment possibility of related stocks. Analysis Result cultural content related stocks showed a higher rate after the last 2008 global financial crisis. Recent as high interest in the cultural contents industry, we could see that the investment merit increases slowly. In the future, the cultural content industry is expected to continue to evolve. The increase of investments value in the cultural content related businesses is much expectation.