• Title/Summary/Keyword: Predictive validity

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중환자 섬망 선별도구 개발 (Development of Korean Intensive Care Delirium Screening Tool (KICDST))

  • 남애리나;박지원
    • 대한간호학회지
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    • 제46권1호
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    • pp.149-158
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    • 2016
  • Purpose: This study was done to develop of the Korean intensive care delirium screening tool (KICDST). Methods: The KICDST was developed in 5 steps: Configuration of conceptual frame, development of preliminary tool, pilot study, reliability and validity test, development of final KICDST. Reliability tests were done using degree of agreement between evaluators and internal consistency. For validity tests, CVI (Content Validity Index), ROC (Receiver Operating Characteristics) analysis, known group technique and factor analysis were used. Results: In the reliability test, the degree of agreement between evaluators showed .80~1.00 and the internal consistency was KR-20=.84. The CVI was .83~1.00. In ROC analysis, the AUC (Area Under the ROC Curve) was .98. Assessment score was 4 points. The values for sensitivity, specificity, correct classification rate, positive predictive value, and negative predictive value were found to be 95.0%, 93.7%, 94.4%, 95.0% and 93.7%, respectively. In the known group technique, the average delirium screening tool score of the non-delirium group was $1.25{\pm}0.99$ while that of delirium group was $5.07{\pm}1.89$ (t= - 16.33, p <.001). The factors were classified into 3 factors (cognitive change, symptom fluctuation, psychomotor retardation), which explained 67.4% of total variance. Conclusion: Findings show that the KICDST has high sensitivity and specificity. Therefore, this screening tool is recommended for early identification of delirium in intensive care patients.

Validity of Self-reported Stroke and Myocardial Infarction in Korea: The Health Examinees (HEXA) Study

  • Choe, Sunho;Lee, Joonki;Lee, Jeeyoo;Kang, Daehee;Lee, Jong-Koo;Shin, Aesun
    • Journal of Preventive Medicine and Public Health
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    • 제52권6호
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    • pp.377-383
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    • 2019
  • Objectives: Self-reported disease history is often used in epidemiological studies. In this study, we acquired the hospital records of subjects who self-reported stroke or myocardial infarction (MI) and evaluated the validity of the participants' self-reported disease history. We also determined the level of agreement between specialists and non-specialists. Methods: Among the participants in the Health Examinees study, 1488 subjects self-reported stroke or MI during 2012-2017, and medical records were acquired for the 429 subjects (28.8%) who agreed to share their medical information. Each record was independently assigned to 2 medical doctors for review. The records were classified as 'definite,' 'possible,' or 'not' stroke or MI. If the doctors did not agree, a third doctor made the final decision. The positive predictive value (PPV) of self-reporting was calculated with the doctors' review as the gold standard. Kappa statistics were used to compare the results between general doctors and neurologists or cardiologists. Results: Medical records from 208 patients with self-reported stroke and 221 patients with self-reported MI were reviewed. The PPV of self-reported disease history was 51.4% for stroke and 32.6% for MI. If cases classified as 'possible' were counted as positive diagnoses, the PPV was 59.1% for stroke and 33.5% for MI. Kappa statistics showed moderate levels of agreement between specialists and nonspecialists for both stroke and MI. Conclusions: The validity of self-reported disease was lower than expected, especially in those who reported having been diagnosed with MI. Proper consideration is needed when using these self-reported data in further studies.

Duty Ratio Predictive Control Scheme for Digital Control of DC-DC Switching Converters

  • Sun, Pengju;Zhou, Luowei
    • Journal of Power Electronics
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    • 제11권2호
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    • pp.156-162
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    • 2011
  • The control loop time delay caused by sampling, the zero-order-holder effect and calculations is inevitable in the digital control of dc-dc switching converters. The time delay will limit the bandwidth of the control loop and therefore degrade the transient performance of digital systems. In this paper, the quantization time delay effects with different time delay values based on a generic second-order system are analyzed. The conclusion that the bandwidth of digital control is reduced by about 20% with a one cycle delay and by 50% with two cycles of delay in comparison with no time delay is obtained. To compensate the time delay and to increase the control loop bandwidth, a duty ratio predictive control scheme based on linear extrapolation is proposed. The compensation effect and a comparison of the load variation transient response characteristics with analogy control, conventional digital control and duty ratio predictive control with different time delay values are performed on a point-of-load Buck converter by simulations and experiments. It is shown that, using the proposed technique, the control loop bandwidth can be increased by 50% for a one cycle delay and 48.2% for two cycles of delay when compared to conventional digital control. Simulations and experimental results prove the validity of the conclusion of the quantization effects of the time delay and the proposed control scheme.

양자화 입력을 고려한 연속시간 T-S 퍼지 시스템을 위한 이벤트 트리거 모델예측제어 (Event-Triggered Model Predictive Control for Continuous T-S fuzzy Systems with Input Quantization)

  • 권우경;이상문
    • 전기학회논문지
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    • 제66권9호
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    • pp.1364-1372
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    • 2017
  • In this paper, a problem of event-triggered model predictive control is investigated for continuous-time Takagi-Sugeno (T-S) fuzzy systems with input quantization. To efficiently utilize network resources, event-trigger is employed, which transmits limited signals satisfying the condition that the measurement of errors is over the ratio of a certain level. Considering sampling and quantization, continuous Takagi-Sugeno (T-S) fuzzy systems are regarded as a sector bounded continuous-time T-S fuzzy systems with input delay. Then, a model predictive controller (MPC) based on parallel distributed compensation (PDC) is designed to optimally stabilize the closed loop systems. The proposed MPC optimize the objective function over infinite horizon, which can be easily calculated and implemented solving linear matrix inequalities (LMIs) for every event-triggered time. The validity and effectiveness are shown that the event triggered MPC can stabilize well the systems with even smaller average sampling rate and limited actuator signal guaranteeing optimal performances through the numerical example.

반응적응 시험설계법을 이용하는 통계적 해석모델 검증 기법 연구 (A Study on the Statistical Model Validation using Response-adaptive Experimental Design)

  • 정병창;허영철;문석준;김영중
    • 한국소음진동공학회:학술대회논문집
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    • 한국소음진동공학회 2014년도 추계학술대회 논문집
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    • pp.347-349
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    • 2014
  • Model verification and validation (V&V) is a current research topic to build computational models with high predictive capability by addressing the general concepts, processes and statistical techniques. The hypothesis test for validity check is one of the model validation techniques and gives a guideline to evaluate the validity of a computational model when limited experimental data only exist due to restricted test resources (e.g., time and budget). The hypothesis test for validity check mainly employ Type I error, the risk of rejecting the valid computational model, for the validity evaluation since quantification of Type II error is not feasible for model validation. However, Type II error, the risk of accepting invalid computational model, should be importantly considered for an engineered products having high risk on predicted results. This paper proposes a technique named as the response-adaptive experimental design to reduce Type II error by adaptively designing experimental conditions for the validation experiment. A tire tread block problem and a numerical example are employed to show the effectiveness of the response-adaptive experimental design for the validity evaluation.

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전문가시스템의 성능평가에 관한 연구 : 렌즈모델분석 (A Study on the Evaluation of an Expert System에s Performance : Lens Model Analysis)

  • 김충영
    • Journal of Information Technology Applications and Management
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    • 제11권1호
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    • pp.117-135
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    • 2004
  • Since human decision making behavior is likely to follow nonlinear strategy, it is conjectured that the human decision making behavior can be modeled better by nonlinear models than by linear models. All that linear models can do is to approximate rather than model the decision behavior. This study attempts to test this conjecture by analyzing human decision making behavior and combining the results of the analysis with predictive performance of both linear models and nonlinear models. In this way, this study can examine the relationship between the predictive performance of models and the existence of valid nonlinear strategy in decision making behavior. This study finds that the existence of nonlinear strategy in decision making behavior is highly correlated with the validity of the decision (or the human experts). The second finding concerns the significant correlations between the model performance and the existence of valid nonlinear strategy which is detected by Lens Model. The third finding is that as stronger the valid nonlinear strategy becomes, the better nonlinear models predict significantly than linear models. The results of this study bring an important concept, validity of nonlinear strategy, to modeling human experts. The inclusion of the concept indicates that the prior analysis of human judgement may lead to the selection of proper modeling algorithm. In addition, lens Model Analysis is proved to be useful in examining the valid nonlinearity in human decision behavior.

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물리보다 수학을 잘 해야 물리를 잘 한다: 입학 전 수학진단점수의 일반물리학 성취도 예측타당성 검증 (Mathematical Preparedness Predicts College Grades in Physics Better than Physics Preparedness: the Predictive Validity of the Mathematical Diagnostic Test on the Freshmen's Physics Grades)

  • 신윤경;박규열;이아름;정종원
    • 공학교육연구
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    • 제22권4호
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    • pp.22-31
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    • 2019
  • This study aims to elucidate the relationship between physics and mathematics to predict achievement for the college level of engineering courses. For the last 4 years, more than 3,000 engineering college freshmen of this study took the diagnostic tests on three subjects, which were physics, mathematics, and chemistry before enrollment. We studied how strongly these diagnostic scores can predict each general college course grades. The correlation between the physics diagnostic scores and the course grades in physics was .264, which was significantly lower than the correlation between the mathematics scores and the physics grades, .311. This stronger prediction of the mathematical diagnostic scores for the general course grades was not found when predicting the grades in chemistry. We therefore conclude that mathematical preparation can unexpectedly predict future achievement in physics better than physics preparation due to the academic interrelationships between mathematics and physics.

계층적 의사결정과 컨조인트 분석의 타당성 비교: 화장품 선호 사례 조사 (A comparative study on validity of AHP and conjoint analysis: a case of cosmetics preference)

  • 이지혜;정형철
    • 응용통계연구
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    • 제29권5호
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    • pp.921-933
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    • 2016
  • 본 연구는 대안이 많지 않은 의사결정에서 계층적 의사결정론(analytic hierarchy process)과 컨조인트 분석 간의 비교를 다루었다. 계층적 의사결정론은 속성들의 쌍대비교 과정을 거쳐 속성의 중요도를 추정한 후 대안들의 순위를 추정하는 방법이며, 컨조인트 분석은 대안의 순서로부터 속성의 효용을 추정하는 방법으로, 의사결정의 과정이 다르기에 두 방법을 직접적으로 비교하는 것은 다소 한계가 있다. 본 연구에서는 Scholl (2004)의 타당도 척도를 사용하여 두 방법을 S대학 여학생들의 화장품 선택 사례 연구를 통하여 두 방법을 서로 비교하였다. 사례연구 결과 컨조인트 분석은 내적타당도가 높게 나타났으며, 계층적 의사결정분석 방법은 예측타당도가 높게 나타남을 볼 수 있었다.

지역사회 거주 노인의 허약선별도구 타당도 평가 (Validation of Instruments to Classify the Frailty of the Elderly in Community)

  • 이인숙;박영임;박은옥;이순희;정인숙
    • 지역사회간호학회지
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    • 제22권3호
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    • pp.302-314
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    • 2011
  • Purpose: This study aimed to validate instruments to classify the frailty of Korean elderly people in community. Methods: For this study, 632 elders were selected from community-based elderly houses and home visiting registries, and data on frailty were collected using three instruments during November, 2008. The Korean Frail Scale (KFS) was composed of 10 domains with the maximum score of 20. The Edmonton Frail Scale (EFS) had 10 domains with the maximum score of 17. The 25_Japan Frail Scale (25_JFS) was composed of 6 domains with the maximum score of 25. Internal consistency was measured with Cronbach's ${\alpha}$. Sensitivity, specificity and area under the curve (AUC) of ROC were measured to see validity with long.term care insurance grade as a gold standard. Results: The Cronbach's ${\alpha}$ was .72 for KFS, .55 for EFS, and .80 for 25_JFS. Sensitivity, specificity, and AUC were 70.0%, 83.2%, and .83, respectively, at cutting point 10.5 for the KFS, 50.0%, 80.9%, and .66, respectively, at 8.5 for EFS, and 80.0%, 85.9%, and .86, respectively, at 12.5 for 25_JFS. Conclusion: KFS and three JFS showed favorable internal consistency and predictive validity. Further longitudinal studies are recommended to confirm predictive validity.