• Asian Pacific Journal of Cancer Prevention
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• v.13 no.4
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• pp.1267-1272
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• 2012

Background and Objective: The optimal resection extent for clinically unilateral papillary thyroid microcarcinoma (PTMC) remains controversial. The objective was to investigate risk factors associated with occult contralateral carcinoma, and put emphasis on the predictive value of preoperative BRAF mutation. Materials and Methods: 100 clinically unilateral PTMC patients all newly diagnosed, previously untreated were analyzed in a prospective cohort study. We assessed the T1799A BRAF mutation status in FNAB specimens obtained from all PTMC patients before undergoing total thyroidectomy (TT) and central lymph node dissection (CLND) for PTMC. Univariate and multivariate analyses were used to reveal the incidence of contralateral occult cancer, difference of risk factors and predictive value, with respect to the following variables: preoperative BRAF mutation status, age, gender, tumor size, multifocality of primary tumor, capsular invasion, presence of Hashimoto thyroiditis and central lymph node metastasis. Results: 20 of 100 patients (20%) had occult contralateral lobe carcinoma. On multi-variate analysis, preoperative BRAF mutation (p = 0.030, OR = 3.439) and multifocality of the primary tumor (p = 0.004, OR = 9.570) were independent predictive factors for occult contralateral PTMC presence. However, there were no significant differences between the presence of occult contralateral carcinomas and age, gender, tumor size, capsular invasion, Hashimoto thyroiditis and central lymph node metastasis. Conclusions: Total thyroidectomy, including the contralateral lobe, should be considered for the treatment of unilateral PTMC if preoperative BRAF mutation is positive and/or if the observed lesion presents as a multifocal tumor in the unilateral lobe.

• Asian Pacific Journal of Cancer Prevention
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• v.15 no.2
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• pp.663-669
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• 2014

Background: With recent progress in health science administration, a huge amount of data has been collected from thousands of subjects. Statistical and computational techniques are very necessary to understand such data and to make valid scientific conclusions. The purpose of this paper was to develop a statistical probability model and to predict future survival times for male breast cancer patients who were diagnosed in the USA during 1973-2009. Materials and Methods: A random sample of 500 male patients was selected from the Surveillance Epidemiology and End Results (SEER) database. The survival times for the male patients were used to derive the statistical probability model. To measure the goodness of fit tests, the model building criterions: Akaike Information Criteria (AIC), Bayesian Information Criteria (BIC), and Deviance Information Criteria (DIC) were employed. A novel Bayesian method was used to derive the posterior density function for the parameters and the predictive inference for future survival times from the exponentiated Weibull model, assuming that the observed breast cancer survival data follow such type of model. The Markov chain Monte Carlo method was used to determine the inference for the parameters. Results: The summary results of certain demographic and socio-economic variables are reported. It was found that the exponentiated Weibull model fits the male survival data. Statistical inferences of the posterior parameters are presented. Mean predictive survival times, 95% predictive intervals, predictive skewness and kurtosis were obtained. Conclusions: The findings will hopefully be useful in treatment planning, healthcare resource allocation, and may motivate future research on breast cancer related survival issues.

• The Transactions of The Korean Institute of Electrical Engineers
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• v.66 no.11
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• pp.1628-1633
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• 2017

The purpose of this study was to identify the difference and correlation in elbow joint maximal flexion strength according to measurement methods and characteristics of muscular contraction, and to develop the predictive equation of elbow joint maximal flexion strength for the optimal exercise intensity setting and accurate measurement. Subjects were 30 male university students. Elbow joint maximal flexion strength of isokinetic contraction, isometric contraction at $75^{\circ}$ elbow joint flexion position, isotonic concentric 1RM, manual muscle strength (MMT) were measured with isokinetic dynamometer, dumbbell, and manual muscle tester. Pearson's r, linear regression equation, and multiple regression equation between variables were calculated. As a result, the highest value was isometric contraction. The second highest value was MMT. The third highest value was isokinetic contraction. 1RM was the lowest. Predictive equations of elbow joint maximal flexion strength between isometric and isokinetic contraction, between isometric contraction and 1RM, among isometric contraction, 1RM, and body weight were developed. In conclusion, 1RM and isokinetic elbow joint maximal flexion strength could be seemed to underestimate the practical elbow joint maximal flexion strength. And it is suggested that the developed predictive equations in this study should be useful in criteria- and goal-setting for resistant exercise and sports rehabilitation after elbow joint injury.

• Physical Therapy Rehabilitation Science
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• v.11 no.3
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• pp.285-295
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• 2022

Objective: The purpose of this study is to use logistic regression and decision tree analysis to identify the factors that affect the success or failurein the national physical therapy examination; and to build and compare predictive models. Design: Secondary data analysis study Methods: We analyzed 76,727 subjects from the physical therapy national examination data provided by the Korea Health Personnel Licensing Examination Institute. The target variable was pass or fail, and the input variables were gender, age, graduation status, and examination area. Frequency analysis, chi-square test, binary logistic regression, and decision tree analysis were performed on the data. Results: In the logistic regression analysis, subjects in their 20s (Odds ratio, OR=1, reference), expected to graduate (OR=13.616, p<0.001) and from the examination area of Jeju-do (OR=3.135, p<0.001), had a high probability of passing. In the decision tree, the predictive factors for passing result had the greatest influence in the order of graduation status (x²=12366.843, p<0.001) and examination area (x²=312.446, p<0.001). Logistic regression analysis showed a specificity of 39.6% and sensitivity of 95.5%; while decision tree analysis showed a specificity of 45.8% and sensitivity of 94.7%. In classification accuracy, logistic regression and decision tree analysis showed 87.6% and 88.0% prediction, respectively. Conclusions: Both logistic regression and decision tree analysis were adequate to explain the predictive model. Additionally, whether actual test takers passed the national physical therapy examination could be determined, by applying the constructed prediction model and prediction rate.

• Journal of The Korean Society of Integrative Medicine
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• v.10 no.3
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• pp.107-117
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• 2022

Purpose : The purpose of this study was to establish a model of the predictive factors for success or failure of examinees undertaking the Korean physical therapist licensing examination (KPTLE). Additionally, we assessed the pass/fail cut-off point. Methods : We analyzed the results of 10,881 examinees who undertook the KPTLE, using data provided by the Korea Health Personnel Licensing Examination Institute. The target variable was the test result (pass or fail), and the input variables were: sex, age, test subject, and total score. Frequency analysis, chi-square test, descriptive statistics, independent t-test, correlation analysis, binary logistic regression, and receiver operating characteristic (ROC) curve analyses were performed on the data. Results : Sex and age were not significant predictors of attaining a pass (p>.05). The test subjects with the highest probability of passing were, in order, medical regulation (MR) (Odds ratio (OR)=2.91, p<.001), foundations of physical therapy (FPT) (OR=2.86, p<.001), diagnosis and evaluation for physical therapy (DEPT) (OR=2.74, p<.001), physical therapy intervention (PTI) (OR=2.66, p<.001), and practical examination (PE) (OR=1.24, p<.001). The cut-off points for each subject were: FPT, 32.50; DEPT, 29.50; PTI, 44.50; MR, 14.50; and PE, 50.50. The total score (TS) was 164.50. The sensitivity, specificity, and the classification accuracy of the prediction model was 99 %, 98 %, and 99 %, respectively, indicating high accuracy. Area under the curve (AUC) values for each subject were: FPT, .958; DEPT, .968; PTI, .984; MR, .885; PE, .962; and TS, .998, indicating a high degree of fit. Conclusion : In our study, the predictive factors for passing KPTLE were identified, and the optimal cut-off point was calculated for each subject. Logistic regression was adequate to explain the predictive model. These results will provide universities and examinees with useful information for predicting their success or failure in the KPTLE.

• Journal of Korean Medicine Rehabilitation
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• v.24 no.4
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• pp.155-162
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• 2014

Objectives Advanced researches on the relationship between obesity and heart rate variability (HRV), heretofore, focused on characteristics of HRV depending on the state of obesity. However, the previous researches have not quantified predictive power of HRV toward the obesity-related variables, which is rather more meaningful for clinicians who regularly treat obese patients. Hence, we designed a research to investigate whether HRV could predict serum levels of obesity-related metabolites. Methods Ninety obese premenopausal women meeting the inclusion criteria were recruited. The HRV test, blood sampling, and measurement of physical traits were conducted. Multiple regression analysis of the measurement data was carried out, putting obesity-related metabolites (insulin, glucose, triglyceride, hs-CRP, HDL, LDL, total cholesterol) as outcome variables and the others as predictors. To select appropriate predictive variables, the Akaike's Information Criterion (AIC) was applied. Normality and homoskedasticity of residuals for each model were tested to identify if there were any violations of the regression analysis's basic assumption. Logarithm transformation was used for the values of the concentration of metabolites and the HRV. Results The regression model including Total Power (TP) value and BMI had significant predictive power for serum insulin concentration (F(2, 88)=835.7, p<0.001, $R^2=0.95$). The regression coefficient of ln (TP) was -0.1002. However, it was not sure if the HRV could predict concentrations of other metabolites. Conclusions The results suggest that the Total Power (TP) value of the HRV can predict the level of serum insulin. If the BMI could be assumed as being constant, when the TP value is multiplied by n, the predicted change of insulin could be drawn by multiplying $n^{-0.1002}$. The uncertainty of this model can be assumed as approximately 5%.

• Asia-Pacific Journal of Business Venturing and Entrepreneurship
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• v.16 no.3
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• pp.73-86
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• 2021

The primary purpose of this paper is to explore the advanced models that predict entrepreneurial innovativeness most accurately. For the first time in the field of entrepreneurship research, it presents a model that predicts entrepreneurial innovativeness based on machine learning corresponding to data scientific approaches. It uses 22,099 the Global Entrepreneurship Monitor (GEM) data from 62 countries to build predictive models. Based on the data set consisting of 27 explanatory variables, it builds predictive models that are traditional statistical methods such as multiple regression analysis and machine learning models such as regression tree, random forest, XG boost, and artificial neural networks. Then, it compares the performance of each model. It uses indicators such as root mean square error (RMSE), mean analysis error (MAE) and correlation to evaluate the performance of the model. The analysis of result is that all five machine learning models perform better than traditional methods, while the best predictive performance model was XG boost. In predicting it through XG boost, the variables with high contribution are entrepreneurial opportunities and cross-term variables of market expansion, which indicates that the type of entrepreneur who wants to acquire opportunities in new markets exhibits high innovativeness.

• KIPS Transactions on Software and Data Engineering
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• v.10 no.11
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• pp.541-546
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• 2021

Recently, there is a trend of developing various identification and prediction models for hypertension using clinical information based on artificial intelligence and machine learning around the world. However, most previous studies on identification or prediction models of hypertension lack the consideration of the ideas of non-invasive and cost-effective variables, race, region, and countries. Therefore, the objective of this study is to present hypertension prediction model that is easily understood using only general and simple sociodemographic variables. Data used in this study was based on the Korea National Health and Nutrition Examination Survey (2018). In men, the model using the naive Bayes with the wrapper-based feature subset selection method showed the highest predictive performance (ROC = 0.790, kappa = 0.396). In women, the model using the naive Bayes with correlation-based feature subset selection method showed the strongest predictive performance (ROC = 0.850, kappa = 0.495). We found that the predictive performance of hypertension based on only sociodemographic variables was higher in women than in men. We think that our models based on machine leaning may be readily used in the field of public health and epidemiology in the future because of the use of simple sociodemographic characteristics.

• Journal of Institute of Control, Robotics and Systems
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• v.10 no.3
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• pp.280-285
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• 2004

This paper is concerned with the modeling and identification of sequencing batch reactor (SBR) via genetic algorithm based polynomial neural network (GA-based PNN). The model describes a biological SBR used in the wastewater treatment process fur nitrogen removal. A conventional polynomial neural network (PNN) is applied to construct a predictive model of SBR process fur nitrogen removal before. But the performances of PNN depend strongly on the number of input variables available to the model, the number of input variables and type (order) of the polynomials to each node. They must be fixed by the designer in advance before the architecture is constructed. So the trial and error method must go with heavy computation burden and low efficiency. To alleviate these problems, we propose GA-based PNN. The order of the polynomial, the number of input variables, and the optimum input variables are encoded as a chromosome and fitness of each chromosome is computed. Simulation results have shown that the complex SBR process can be modeled reasonably well by the present scheme with a much simpler structure compared with the conventional PNN model.

• Journal of Korean Academy of Nursing
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• v.42 no.6
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• pp.810-818
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• 2012

Purpose: This study was done to explore factors relating to number of falls among community-dwelling elders, based on gender. Methods: Participants were 403 older community dwellers (male=206, female=197) aged 60 or above. In this study, 8 variables were identified as predictive factors that can result in an elderly person falling and as such, supports previous studies. The 8 variables were categorized as, exogenous variables; perceived health status, somatization, depression, physical performance, and cognitive state, and endogenous variables; fear of falling, ADL & IADL and frequency of falls. Results: For men, ability to perform ADL & IADL (${\beta}_{32}$=1.84, p<.001) accounted for 16% of the variance in the number of falls. For women, fear of falling (${\beta}_{31}$=0.14, p<.05) and ability to perform ADL & IADL (${\beta}_{32}$=1.01, p<.001) significantly contributed to the number of falls, accounting for 15% of the variance in the number of falls. Conclusion: The findings from this study confirm the gender-based fall prediction model as comprehensive in relation to community-dwelling elders. The fall prediction model can effectively contribute to future studies in developing fall prediction and intervention programs.