• Title/Summary/Keyword: Predictive System

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The Role of Tolerance to Promote the Improving the Quality of Training the Specialists in the Information Society

  • Oleksandr, Makarenko;Inna, Levenok;Valentyna, Shakhrai;Liudmyla, Koval;Tetiana, Tyulpa;Andrii, Shevchuk;Olena, Bida
    • International Journal of Computer Science & Network Security
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    • v.22 no.12
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    • pp.63-70
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    • 2022
  • The essence of the definition of "tolerance" is analyzed. Motivational, knowledge and behavioral criteria for tolerance of future teachers are highlighted. Indicators of the motivational criterion are the formation of value orientations, motivational orientation, and the development of empathy. Originality and productivity of thoughts and judgments, tact of dialogue, pedagogical ethics and tact are confirmed as indicators of the knowledge criterion. The behavioral criterion includes social activity as a life position, emotional and volitional endurance, and self-control of one's own position. The formation of tolerance is influenced by a number of factors: the social environment, the information society, existing stereotypes and ideas in society, the system of education and relationships between people, and the system of values. The main factors that contribute to the education of tolerance in future teachers are highlighted. Analyzing the structure of tolerance, it is necessary to distinguish the following functions of tolerance: - motivational (determines the composition and strength of motivation for social activity and behavior, promotes the development of life experience, because it allows the individual to accept other points of view and vision of the solution; - informational (understanding the situation, the personality of another person); - regulatory (tolerance has a close connection with the strong - willed qualities of a person: endurance, selfcontrol, self-regulation, which were formed in the process of Education); - adaptive (allows the individual to develop in the process of joint activity a positive, emotional, stable attitude to the activity itself, which the individual carries out, to the object and subject of joint relations). The implementation of pedagogical functions in the information society: educational, organizational, predictive, informational, communicative, controlling, etc. provides grounds to consider pedagogical tolerance as an integrative personal quality of a representative of any profession in the field of "person-person". The positions that should become conditions for the formation of tolerance of the future teacher in the information society are listed.

Predicting the Fetotoxicity of Drugs Using Machine Learning (기계학습 기반 약물의 태아 독성 예측 연구)

  • Myeonghyeon Jeong;Sunyong Yoo
    • Journal of Life Science
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    • v.33 no.6
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    • pp.490-497
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    • 2023
  • Pregnant women may need to take medications to treat preexisting diseases or diseases that develop during pregnancy. However, some drugs may be fetotoxic and lead to, for example, teratogenicity and growth retardation. Predicting the fetotoxicity of drugs is thus important for the health of the mother and fetus. The fetotoxicity of many drugs has not been established because various challenges hinder the ability of researchers to determine their fetotoxicity. The need exists for in silico-based fetotoxicity assessment models, as they can modernize the testing paradigm, improve predictability, and reduce the use of animals and the costs of fetotoxicity testing. In this study, we collected data on the fetotoxicity of drugs and constructed fetotoxicity prediction models based on various machine learning algorithms. We optimized the models for more precise predictions by tuning the hyperparameters. We then performed quantitative performance evaluations. The results indicated that the constructed machine learning-based models had high performance (AUROC >0.85, AUPR >0.9) in fetotoxicity prediction. We also analyzed the feature importance of our model's predictions, which could be leveraged to identify the specific features of drugs that are strongly associated with fetotoxicity. The proposed model can be used to prescreen drugs and drug candidates at a lower cost and in less time. It provides a predictive score for fetotoxicity risk, which may be beneficial in the design of studies on fetotoxicity in human pregnancy.

Forecasting the Busan Container Volume Using XGBoost Approach based on Machine Learning Model (기계 학습 모델을 통해 XGBoost 기법을 활용한 부산 컨테이너 물동량 예측)

  • Nguyen Thi Phuong Thanh;Gyu Sung Cho
    • Journal of Internet of Things and Convergence
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    • v.10 no.1
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    • pp.39-45
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    • 2024
  • Container volume is a very important factor in accurate evaluation of port performance, and accurate prediction of effective port development and operation strategies is essential. However, it is difficult to improve the accuracy of container volume prediction due to rapid changes in the marine industry. To solve this problem, it is necessary to analyze the impact on port performance using the Internet of Things (IoT) and apply it to improve the competitiveness and efficiency of Busan Port. Therefore, this study aims to develop a prediction model for predicting the future container volume of Busan Port, and through this, focuses on improving port productivity and making improved decision-making by port management agencies. In order to predict port container volume, this study introduced the Extreme Gradient Boosting (XGBoost) technique of a machine learning model. XGBoost stands out of its higher accuracy, faster learning and prediction than other algorithms, preventing overfitting, along with providing Feature Importance. Especially, XGBoost can be used directly for regression predictive modelling, which helps improve the accuracy of the volume prediction model presented in previous studies. Through this, this study can accurately and reliably predict container volume by the proposed method with a 4.3% MAPE (Mean absolute percentage error) value, highlighting its high forecasting accuracy. It is believed that the accuracy of Busan container volume can be increased through the methodology presented in this study.

Prediction of Cognitive Progression in Individuals with Mild Cognitive Impairment Using Radiomics as an Improvement of the ATN System: A Five-Year Follow-Up Study

  • Rao Song;Xiaojia Wu;Huan Liu;Dajing Guo;Lin Tang;Wei Zhang;Junbang Feng;Chuanming Li
    • Korean Journal of Radiology
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    • v.23 no.1
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    • pp.89-100
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    • 2022
  • Objective: To improve the N biomarker in the amyloid/tau/neurodegeneration system by radiomics and study its value for predicting cognitive progression in individuals with mild cognitive impairment (MCI). Materials and Methods: A group of 147 healthy controls (HCs) (72 male; mean age ± standard deviation, 73.7 ± 6.3 years), 197 patients with MCI (114 male; 72.2 ± 7.1 years), and 128 patients with Alzheimer's disease (AD) (74 male; 73.7 ± 8.4 years) were included. Optimal A, T, and N biomarkers for discriminating HC and AD were selected using receiver operating characteristic (ROC) curve analysis. A radiomics model containing comprehensive information of the whole cerebral cortex and deep nuclei was established to create a new N biomarker. Cerebrospinal fluid (CSF) biomarkers were evaluated to determine the optimal A or T biomarkers. All MCI patients were followed up until AD conversion or for at least 60 months. The predictive value of A, T, and the radiomics-based N biomarker for cognitive progression of MCI to AD were analyzed using Kaplan-Meier estimates and the log-rank test. Results: The radiomics-based N biomarker showed an ROC curve area of 0.998 for discriminating between AD and HC. CSF Aβ42 and p-tau proteins were identified as the optimal A and T biomarkers, respectively. For MCI patients on the Alzheimer's continuum, isolated A+ was an indicator of cognitive stability, while abnormalities of T and N, separately or simultaneously, indicated a high risk of progression. For MCI patients with suspected non-Alzheimer's disease pathophysiology, isolated T+ indicated cognitive stability, while the appearance of the radiomics-based N+ indicated a high risk of progression to AD. Conclusion: We proposed a new radiomics-based improved N biomarker that could help identify patients with MCI who are at a higher risk for cognitive progression. In addition, we clarified the value of a single A/T/N biomarker for predicting the cognitive progression of MCI.

A Study on the Revitalization of the Competency Assessment System in the Public Sector : Compare with Private Sector Operations (공공부문 역량평가제도의 활성화 방안에 대한 연구 : 민간부분의 운영방식과의 비교 연구)

  • Kwon, Yong-man;Jeong, Jang-ho
    • Journal of Venture Innovation
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    • v.4 no.1
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    • pp.51-65
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    • 2021
  • The HR policy in the public sector was closed and operated mainly on written tests, but in 2006, a new evaluation, promotion and education system based on competence was introduced in the promotion and selection system of civil servants. In particular, the seniority-oriented promotion system was evaluated based on competence by operating an Assessment Center related to promotion. Competency evaluation is known to be the most reliable and valid evaluation method among the evaluation methods used to date and is also known to have high predictive feasibility for performance. In 2001, 19 government standard competency models were designed. In 2006, the competency assessment was implemented with the implementation of the high-ranking civil service team system. In the public sector, the purpose of the competency evaluation is mainly to select third-grade civil servants, assign fourth-grade civil servants, and promotion fifth-grade civil servants. However, competency assessments in the public sector differ in terms of competency assessment objectives, assessment processes and competency assessment programmes compared to those in the private sector. For the purposes of competency assessment, the public sector is for the promotion of candidates, and the private sector focuses on career development and fostering. Therefore, it is not continuously developing capabilities than the private sector and is not used to enhance performance in performing its duties. In relation to evaluation items, the public sector generally operates a system that passes capacity assessment at 2.5 out of 5 for 6 competencies, lacks feedback on what competencies are lacking, and the private sector uses each individual's competency score. Regarding the selection and operation of evaluators, the public sector focuses on fairness in evaluation, and the private sector focuses on usability, which is inconsistent with the aspect of developing capabilities and utilizing human resources in the right place. Therefore, the public sector should also improve measures to identify outstanding people and motivate them through capacity evaluation and change the operation of the capacity evaluation system so that they can grow into better managers through accurate reports and individual feedback

Process Design of Carbon Dioxide Storage in the Marine Geological Structure: I. Comparative Analysis of Thermodynamic Equations of State using Numerical Calculation (이산화탄소 해양지중저장 처리를 위한 공정 설계: I. 수치계산을 통한 열역학 상태방정식의 비교 분석)

  • Huh, Cheol;Kang, Seong-Gil
    • Journal of the Korean Society for Marine Environment & Energy
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    • v.11 no.4
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    • pp.181-190
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    • 2008
  • To response climate change and Kyoto protocol and to reduce greenhouse gas emissions, marine geological storage of $CO_2$ is regarded as one of the most promising option. Marine geological storage of $CO_2$ is to capture $CO_2$ from major point sources(eg. power plant), to transport to the storage sites and to store $CO_2$ into the marine geological structure such as deep sea saline aquifer. To design a reliable $CO_2$ marine geological storage system, it is necessary to perform numerical process simulation using thermodynamic equation of state. The purpose of this paper is to compare and analyse the relevant equations of state including ideal, BWRS, PR, PRBM and SRK equation of state. To evaluate the predictive accuracy of the equation of the state, we compared numerical calculation results with reference experimental data. Ideal and SRK equation of state did not predict the density behavior above $29.85^{\circ}C$, 60 bar. Especially, they showed maximum 100% error in supercritical state. BWRS equation of state did not predict the density behavior between $60{\sim}80\;bar$ and near critical temperature. On the other hand, PR and PRBM equation of state showed good predictive capability in supercritical state. Since the thermodynamic conditions of $CO_2$ reservoir sites correspond to supercritical state(above $31.1^{\circ}C$ and 73.9 bar), we conclude that it is recommended to use PR and PRBM equation of state in designing of $CO_2$ marine geological storage process.

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Thallium-201 SPECT in Differential Diagnosis of Malignancy from Benign Pathology in Patients with a Solitary Pulmonary Lesion (단일 폐병변에서 T1-201 SPECT를 이용한 악성 종양의 감별진단)

  • Ahn, Byeong-Cheol;Lee, Jae-Tae;Chun, Kyung-Ah;Kim, Dong-Hwan;Sohn, Sang-Kyun;Kim, Chang-Ho;Park, Jae-Yong;Jeong, Tae-Hoon;Lee, Kyu-Bo;Kim, Chun-K.
    • The Korean Journal of Nuclear Medicine
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    • v.32 no.2
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    • pp.143-150
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    • 1998
  • Purpose: T1-201 SPECT has been used in differentiating benign and malignant pulmonary lesions. While its sensitivity may be high, the specificity and predictive values are reported to be variable depending on the type of benign lung lesion. The purpose of this study was to prospectively assess the efficacy of T1-201 SPECT for differentiating benign and malignant single pulmonary lesion in a population with a high prevalence of benign pulmonary lesion, especially, tuberculosis. Materials and Methods: One-hundred thirty-three patients, having 89 malignant and 44 benign lesions(23 active tuberculosis, 5 inactive tuberculosis, 3 aspergil-loma, 3 focal pneumonia, 2 thymoma, and 8 others), were imaged using a dual-headed system at 15 minute(early) and 3 hour (delayed) following administration of 111MBq T1-201. The images were read visually and lesion-to-background ratios(L/B) were obtained from transverse tomographic slices. Retention index was expressed as [(delayed L/B- early L/B) $\div$ early L/B]. Results: 82/89(92%) and 83/89(93%) of the malignant lesions were visually positive on the early and delayed images, and 27/44(61%) and 26/44(59%) of the benign lesions were also visually positive on both images. Although a statistically significant difference was found between the mean L/B's of the malignant and benign lesions, L/B was not useful for differentiating the two due to a large overlap. There was no difference in retention indices. Conclusion: Despite of its high sensitivity, the specificity of T1-201 SPECT was unacceptably low in patients with active benign lesions. The positive and negative predictive values for lung cancer in a population with a high prevalence of the benign single pulmonary lesion was only marginal.

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The Study of Radiation Exposed dose According to 131I Radiation Isotope Therapy (131I 방사성 동위원소 치료에 따른 피폭 선량 연구)

  • Chang, Boseok;Yu, Seung-Man
    • Journal of the Korean Society of Radiology
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    • v.13 no.4
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    • pp.653-659
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    • 2019
  • The purpose of this study is to measure the (air dose rate of radiation dose) the discharged patient who was administrated high dose $^{131}I$ treatment, and to predict exposure radiation dose in public person. The dosimetric evaluation was performed according to the distance and angle using three copper rings in 30 patients who were treated with over 200mCi high dose Iodine therapy. The two observer were measured using a GM surverymeter with 8 point azimuth angle and three difference distance 50, 100, 150cm for precise radion dose measurement. We set up three predictive simulations to calculate the exposure dose based on this data. The most highest radiation dose rate was showed measuring angle $0^{\circ}$ at the height of 1m. The each distance average dose rate was used the azimuth angle average value of radiation dose rate. The maximum values of the external radiation dose rate depending on the distance were $214{\pm}16.5$, $59{\pm}9.1$ and $38{\pm}5.8{\mu}Sv/h$ at 50, 100, 150cm, respectively. If high dose Iodine treatment patient moves 5 hours using public transportation, an unspecified person in a side seat at 50cm is exposed 1.14 mSv radiation dose. A person who cares for 4days at a distance of 1 meter from a patient wearing a urine bag receives a maximum radiation dose of 6.5mSv. The maximum dose of radiation that a guardian can receive is 1.08mSv at a distance of 1.5m for 7days. The annual radiation dose limit is exceeded in a short time when applied the our developed radiation dose predictive modeling on the general public person who was around the patients with Iodine therapy. This study can be helpful in suggesting a reasonable guideline of the general public person protection system after discharge of high dose Iodine administered patients.

Export Prediction Using Separated Learning Method and Recommendation of Potential Export Countries (분리학습 모델을 이용한 수출액 예측 및 수출 유망국가 추천)

  • Jang, Yeongjin;Won, Jongkwan;Lee, Chaerok
    • Journal of Intelligence and Information Systems
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    • v.28 no.1
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    • pp.69-88
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    • 2022
  • One of the characteristics of South Korea's economic structure is that it is highly dependent on exports. Thus, many businesses are closely related to the global economy and diplomatic situation. In addition, small and medium-sized enterprises(SMEs) specialized in exporting are struggling due to the spread of COVID-19. Therefore, this study aimed to develop a model to forecast exports for next year to support SMEs' export strategy and decision making. Also, this study proposed a strategy to recommend promising export countries of each item based on the forecasting model. We analyzed important variables used in previous studies such as country-specific, item-specific, and macro-economic variables and collected those variables to train our prediction model. Next, through the exploratory data analysis(EDA) it was found that exports, which is a target variable, have a highly skewed distribution. To deal with this issue and improve predictive performance, we suggest a separated learning method. In a separated learning method, the whole dataset is divided into homogeneous subgroups and a prediction algorithm is applied to each group. Thus, characteristics of each group can be more precisely trained using different input variables and algorithms. In this study, we divided the dataset into five subgroups based on the exports to decrease skewness of the target variable. After the separation, we found that each group has different characteristics in countries and goods. For example, In Group 1, most of the exporting countries are developing countries and the majority of exporting goods are low value products such as glass and prints. On the other hand, major exporting countries of South Korea such as China, USA, and Vietnam are included in Group 4 and Group 5 and most exporting goods in these groups are high value products. Then we used LightGBM(LGBM) and Exponential Moving Average(EMA) for prediction. Considering the characteristics of each group, models were built using LGBM for Group 1 to 4 and EMA for Group 5. To evaluate the performance of the model, we compare different model structures and algorithms. As a result, it was found that the separated learning model had best performance compared to other models. After the model was built, we also provided variable importance of each group using SHAP-value to add explainability of our model. Based on the prediction model, we proposed a second-stage recommendation strategy for potential export countries. In the first phase, BCG matrix was used to find Star and Question Mark markets that are expected to grow rapidly. In the second phase, we calculated scores for each country and recommendations were made according to ranking. Using this recommendation framework, potential export countries were selected and information about those countries for each item was presented. There are several implications of this study. First of all, most of the preceding studies have conducted research on the specific situation or country. However, this study use various variables and develops a machine learning model for a wide range of countries and items. Second, as to our knowledge, it is the first attempt to adopt a separated learning method for exports prediction. By separating the dataset into 5 homogeneous subgroups, we could enhance the predictive performance of the model. Also, more detailed explanation of models by group is provided using SHAP values. Lastly, this study has several practical implications. There are some platforms which serve trade information including KOTRA, but most of them are based on past data. Therefore, it is not easy for companies to predict future trends. By utilizing the model and recommendation strategy in this research, trade related services in each platform can be improved so that companies including SMEs can fully utilize the service when making strategies and decisions for exports.

Scalable Collaborative Filtering Technique based on Adaptive Clustering (적응형 군집화 기반 확장 용이한 협업 필터링 기법)

  • Lee, O-Joun;Hong, Min-Sung;Lee, Won-Jin;Lee, Jae-Dong
    • Journal of Intelligence and Information Systems
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    • v.20 no.2
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    • pp.73-92
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    • 2014
  • An Adaptive Clustering-based Collaborative Filtering Technique was proposed to solve the fundamental problems of collaborative filtering, such as cold-start problems, scalability problems and data sparsity problems. Previous collaborative filtering techniques were carried out according to the recommendations based on the predicted preference of the user to a particular item using a similar item subset and a similar user subset composed based on the preference of users to items. For this reason, if the density of the user preference matrix is low, the reliability of the recommendation system will decrease rapidly. Therefore, the difficulty of creating a similar item subset and similar user subset will be increased. In addition, as the scale of service increases, the time needed to create a similar item subset and similar user subset increases geometrically, and the response time of the recommendation system is then increased. To solve these problems, this paper suggests a collaborative filtering technique that adapts a condition actively to the model and adopts the concepts of a context-based filtering technique. This technique consists of four major methodologies. First, items are made, the users are clustered according their feature vectors, and an inter-cluster preference between each item cluster and user cluster is then assumed. According to this method, the run-time for creating a similar item subset or user subset can be economized, the reliability of a recommendation system can be made higher than that using only the user preference information for creating a similar item subset or similar user subset, and the cold start problem can be partially solved. Second, recommendations are made using the prior composed item and user clusters and inter-cluster preference between each item cluster and user cluster. In this phase, a list of items is made for users by examining the item clusters in the order of the size of the inter-cluster preference of the user cluster, in which the user belongs, and selecting and ranking the items according to the predicted or recorded user preference information. Using this method, the creation of a recommendation model phase bears the highest load of the recommendation system, and it minimizes the load of the recommendation system in run-time. Therefore, the scalability problem and large scale recommendation system can be performed with collaborative filtering, which is highly reliable. Third, the missing user preference information is predicted using the item and user clusters. Using this method, the problem caused by the low density of the user preference matrix can be mitigated. Existing studies on this used an item-based prediction or user-based prediction. In this paper, Hao Ji's idea, which uses both an item-based prediction and user-based prediction, was improved. The reliability of the recommendation service can be improved by combining the predictive values of both techniques by applying the condition of the recommendation model. By predicting the user preference based on the item or user clusters, the time required to predict the user preference can be reduced, and missing user preference in run-time can be predicted. Fourth, the item and user feature vector can be made to learn the following input of the user feedback. This phase applied normalized user feedback to the item and user feature vector. This method can mitigate the problems caused by the use of the concepts of context-based filtering, such as the item and user feature vector based on the user profile and item properties. The problems with using the item and user feature vector are due to the limitation of quantifying the qualitative features of the items and users. Therefore, the elements of the user and item feature vectors are made to match one to one, and if user feedback to a particular item is obtained, it will be applied to the feature vector using the opposite one. Verification of this method was accomplished by comparing the performance with existing hybrid filtering techniques. Two methods were used for verification: MAE(Mean Absolute Error) and response time. Using MAE, this technique was confirmed to improve the reliability of the recommendation system. Using the response time, this technique was found to be suitable for a large scaled recommendation system. This paper suggested an Adaptive Clustering-based Collaborative Filtering Technique with high reliability and low time complexity, but it had some limitations. This technique focused on reducing the time complexity. Hence, an improvement in reliability was not expected. The next topic will be to improve this technique by rule-based filtering.