• Journal of Preventive Medicine and Public Health
• /
• v.38 no.3
• /
• pp.276-282
• /
• 2005

Objectives : To evaluate the predictive validity of three scoring systems; the acute physiology and chronic health evaluation(APACHE) III, simplified acute physiology score(SAPS) II, and mortality probability model(MPM) II systems in critically ill patients. Methods : A concurrent and retrospective study conducted by collecting data on consecutive patients admitted to the intensive care unit(ICU) including surgical, medical and coronary care unit between January 1, 2004, and March 31, 2004. Data were collected on 348 patients consecutively admitted to the ICU(aged 16 years or older, no transfer, ICU stay at least 8 hours). Three models were analyzed using logistic regression. Discrimination was assessed using receiver operating characteristic(ROC) curves, sensitivity, specificity, and correct classification rate. Calibration was assessed using the Lemeshow-Hosmer goodness of fit H-statistic. Results : For the APACHE III, SAPS II and MPM II systems, the area under the receiver operating characterist ic(ROC) curves were 0.981, 0.978, and 0.941 respectively. With a predicted risk of 0.5, the sensitivities for the APACHE III, SAPS II, and MPM II systems were 81.1, 79.2 and 71.7%, the specificities 98.3, 98.6, and 98.3%, and the correct classification rates 95.7, 95.7, and 94.3%, respectively. The SAPS II and APACHE III systems showed good calibrations(chi-squared H=2.5838 p=0.9577 for SAPS II, and chi-squared H=4.3761 p=0.8217 for APACHE III). Conclusions : The APACHE III and SAPS II systems have excellent powers of mortality prediction, and calibration, and can be useful tools for the quality assessment of intensive care units(ICUs).

• The Journal of the Korea Contents Association
• /
• v.20 no.8
• /
• pp.1-9
• /
• 2020

As the aging problem of the regional industry ecosystem has gradually become serious, research to measure and regenerate the regional industry ecosystem decline has been actively conducted. However, little research has been done on regional industry ecosystem crises. Crisis emerges radically over a short period of time, and it is often impossible to respond by post-response, so you must respond before the crisis occurs. In other words, it is more necessary and required when looking at the crisis early and taking a proactive response from a long-term perspective. Therefore, it is necessary to develop a predictive model that can proactively recognize and respond to the crisis in the regional industry ecosystem. Therefore, this study checked the possibility of predicting the risk of regional industry and market according to the emotional score of the news by using large-scale news data. News sentiment analysis was performed using the Google sentiment analysis API, and this was organized by month to check the correlation between actual events.

• Quality Improvement in Health Care
• /
• v.7 no.2
• /
• pp.218-228
• /
• 2000

Background : Among 'structure', 'process' and 'outcome' approaches, outcome evaluation is considered as the most direct and best approach to assess the quality of health care providers. Risk-adjustment is an essential method to compare outcome across providers. This study has aims to judge performance of hospitals by severity adjusted mortality rates of coronary artery bypass graft (CABG) surgery. Methods : Medical records of 584 patients who got the CABG surgery in 6 general hospitals during 1996 and 1997 were reviewed by trained nurses. The MedisGroups was used to quantify severity of patients. The predictive probability of death was calculated for each patient in the sample from a multivariate logistic regression model including the severity score, age and sex. For evaluation of hospital performance, we calculated ratio of observed number to expected number of deaths and z score [(observed number of deaths - expected number of deaths)/square root of the variance in the number of deaths], and compared observed mortality rate with confidence interval of adjusted mortality rate for each hospital. Results : The overall in-hospital mortality was 7.0%, ranged from 2.7% to 15.7% by hospital. After severity adjustment the mortality by hospital was from 2.7% to 10.7%. One hospital with poor performance was distinctly divided from others with good performance. Conclusion : In conclusion, severity-adjusted mortality rate of CABG surgery might be applied as an indicator for hospital performance evaluation in Korea. But more pilot studies and improvement of methodologies has to be done to use it as quality indicator.

• Korean Journal of Social Welfare
• /
• v.68 no.3
• /
• pp.105-125
• /
• 2016

School absenteeism is considered one of the early predictors of school drop-out and serious delinquency or criminal behavior. The primary goal of the current study was to explore the protective and risk factors related to changing school absenteeism over time based on the ecological-systemic perspective. The data was derived from the Korean Children and Youth Panel Survey (KCYPS) using the 2011 and 2012 survey waves collected from 2,378 elementary school students. Using this data, Panel Fixed Effects Analysis was conducted. Major findings indicated that daily computer usage, parental abuse, school activity attendance, and school grades had an effect on students missing school days over time. Specifically, high levels of computer usage and parental abuse were related to increased school absenteeism, while high levels of school activity attendance and school grades were associated with decreased school absenteeism. These findings emphasized the importance of predictive intervention for children and suggested the need to construct a school absenteeism monitoring system in South Korea.

• Safety and Health at Work
• /
• v.13 no.2
• /
• pp.255-260
• /
• 2022

Background: The coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) pandemic has demonstrated the importance of implementing strategic management that prioritizes the safety of frontline nurse professionals. In this sense, this research was aimed at identifying factors associated with the illness of nursing professionals caused by COVID-19 according to socio-demographic, clinical, and labor variables. Methods: A cross-sectional study was conducted in three Brazilian university hospitals with 859 nursing professionals, which include nurses, technicians, and nursing assistants, between November 2020 and February 2021. We present data using absolute and relative frequency. We used Chi-square test for hypothesis testing and multiple logistic regression for predictive analysis and chances of occurrence. Results: The rate of nursing professionals affected by COVID-19 was 41.8%, and the factors associated with contamination were the number of people in the same household with COVID-19 and obesity. Being a nurse was a protective factor when the entire nursing team was considered. The model is significant, and its variables represent 56.61% of the occurrence of COVID-19 in nursing professionals. Conclusion: Obesity and living in the same household as other people affected by COVID-19 increases the risk of contamination by this new coronavirus.

• Journal of Chest Surgery
• /
• v.55 no.3
• /
• pp.214-224
• /
• 2022

Background: Studies of the prognostic role of circulating tumor cells (CTCs) in early-stage non-small cell lung cancer (NSCLC) are still limited. This study investigated the prognostic power of CTCs from the pulmonary vein (PV), peripheral blood (PB), and bone marrow (BM) for postoperative recurrence in patients who underwent curative resection for NSCLC. Methods: Forty patients who underwent curative resection for NSCLC were enrolled. Before resection, 10-mL samples were obtained of PB from the radial artery, blood from the PV of the lobe containing the tumor, and BM aspirates from the rib. A microfabricated filter was used for CTC enrichment, and immunofluorescence staining was used to identify CTCs. Results: The pathologic stage was stage I in 8 patients (20%), II in 15 (38%), III in 14 (35%), and IV in 3 (8%). The median number of PB-, PV-, and BM-CTCs was 4, 4, and 5, respectively. A time-dependent receiver operating characteristic curve analysis showed that PB-CTCs had excellent predictive value for recurrence-free survival (RFS), with the highest area under the curve at each time point (first, second, and third quartiles of RFS). In a multivariate Cox proportional hazard regression model, PB-CTCs were an independent risk factor for recurrence (hazard ratio, 10.580; 95% confidence interval, 1.637-68.388; p<0.013). Conclusion: The presence of ≥4 PB-CTCs was an independent poor prognostic factor for RFS, and PV-CTCs and PB-CTCs had a positive linear correlation in patients with recurrence.

• Journal of the Korean Society of Safety
• /
• v.39 no.2
• /
• pp.38-43
• /
• 2024

Recently, with the expanding market for electronic devices and electric vehicles, secondary battery usage has been on the rise. Lithium-ion batteries are particularly popular due to their fast charging times and lightweight nature compared to other types of batteries. A secondary battery consists of four components: anode, cathode, electrolyte, and separator. Generally, the positive and negative electrode materials of secondary batteries are composed of an active material, a binder, and a conductive material. Acetylene Black (AB) is utilized to enhance conductivity between active material particles or metal dust collectors, preventing the binder from acting as an insulator. However, when recycling waste batteries that have been subject to high usage, there is a risk of fire and explosion accidents, as accurately identifying the characteristics of Acetylene Black dust proves to be challenging. In this study, the lower explosion limit for Acetylene Black dust with an average particle size of 0.042 ㎛ was determined to be 153.64 mg/L using a Hartmann-type dust explosion device. Notably, the dust did not explode at values below 168 mg, rendering the lower explosion limit calculation unfeasible. Analysis of explosion delay times with varying electrode gaps revealed the shortest delay time at 3 mm, with a noticeable increase in delay times for gaps of 4 mm or greater. The findings offer fundamental data for fire and explosion prevention measures in Acetylene Black waste recycling processes via a predictive model for lower explosion limits and ignition delay time.

• Journal of Korean Society of Transportation
• /
• v.18 no.5
• /
• pp.7-16
• /
• 2000

This paper is focused on verifying time-space repetition of the highway accident and finding the their causes and deterrents. We classify all months into several seasonal groups, develop the model for each seasonal group and analyze the results of these models for Joong-bu highway. The existence of seasonal effect is verified by the analysis or self-organizing map and the accident indices. Agglomerative hierarchical cluster analysis which is used to decide the seasonal groups in accordance with accident patterns, winter group, spring-fall group. and summer group. The accident features of winter group are that the accident rate is high but the severity rate is low. while those of summer group are that the accident rate is low but the severity rate is high. Also, the regression model which is developed to identify the accident Pattern or each seasonal group represents that the season-related factors, such as the amount of rainfall, the amount of snowfall, days of rainfall, days of snowfall etc. are strongly related to the accident pattern of evert seasonal group and among these factors the traffic volume, amount of rainfall. the amount of snowfall and days of freezing importantly affect the local accident Pattern. So, seasonal effect should be considered to the identification of high-risk road section. the development of descriptive and Predictive accident model, the resource allocation model of accident in order to make safety management plan efficient.

• Journal of the Korea Society for Simulation
• /
• v.32 no.4
• /
• pp.19-26
• /
• 2023

The increase in the dropout rate of college students nationwide has a serious negative impact on universities and society as well as individual students. In order to proactive identify students at risk of dropout, this study built a decision tree, random forest, logistic regression, and deep learning-based dropout prediction model using academic data that can be easily obtained from each university's academic management system. Their performances were subsequently analyzed and compared. The analysis revealed that while the logistic regression-based prediction model exhibited the highest recall rate, its f-1 value and ROC-AUC (Receiver Operating Characteristic - Area Under the Curve) value were comparatively lower. On the other hand, the random forest-based prediction model demonstrated superior performance across all other metrics except recall value. In addition, in order to assess model performance over distinct prediction periods, we divided these periods into short-term (within one semester), medium-term (within two semesters), and long-term (within three semesters). The results underscored that the long-term prediction yielded the highest predictive efficacy. Through this study, each university is expected to be able to identify students who are expected to be dropped out early, reduce the dropout rate through intensive management, and further contribute to the stabilization of university finances.

• Journal of the Korean Association of Geographic Information Studies
• /
• v.20 no.4
• /
• pp.89-101
• /
• 2017

Crime occurs differently based on not only place locations and building uses but also the characteristics of the people who use the place and the spatial structures of the buildings and locations. Therefore, if spatial big data, which contain spatial and regional properties, can be utilized, proper crime prevention measures can be enacted. Recently, with the advent of big data and the revolutionary intelligent information era, predictive policing has emerged as a new paradigm for police activities. Based on 7420 actual crime incidents occurring over three years in a typical provincial city, "J city," this study identified the areas in which crimes occurred and predicted risky areas. Spatial regression analysis was performed using spatial big data about only physical and environmental variables. Based on the results, using the street width, average number of building floors, building coverage ratio, the type of use of the first floor (Type II neighborhood living facility, commercial facility, pleasure use, or residential use), this study established a Crime Incident Prediction Model (CIPM) based on Bayesian probability theory. As a result, it was found that the model was suitable for crime prediction because the overlap analysis with the actual crime areas and the receiver operating characteristic curve (Roc curve), which evaluated the accuracy of the model, showed an area under the curve (AUC) value of 0.8. It was also found that a block where the commercial and entertainment facilities were concentrated, a block where the number of building floors is high, and a block where the commercial, entertainment, residential facilities are mixed are high-risk areas. This study provides a meaningful step forward to the development of a crime prediction model, unlike previous studies that explored the spatial distribution of crime and the factors influencing crime occurrence.