• Journal of the FoodService Safety
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• v.2 no.2
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• pp.91-96
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• 2021

This study was performed to provide fundamental data on hygiene and quality control of ready-to-eat sandwiches. Predictive models were developed to the kinetics of Staphylococcus aureus growth in these sandwiches as a function of temperature (10, 15, 25, and 35℃). The result of the primary model that used the Gompertz equation showed that the lag phase duration (LPD) and generation time (GT) decreased and the exponential growth rate (EGR) increased with increasing storage temperature. The secondary model showed an R² for M and B of 0.9967 and 09916, respectively. A predictive growth model of the growth degree as a function of temperature was developed. L(t)=A+Cexp(-exp(-B(t-M))) (A=Initial contamination level, C=MPD-A, B=0.473166-0.045040*Temp-0.001718*Temp*Temp, M=19.924824-0.627442*Temp-0.004493*Temp*Temp, t=time, Temp=temperature). This model showed an R² value of 0.9288. All the models developed in this study showed a good fit.

• Food Science and Biotechnology
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• v.15 no.5
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• pp.715-720
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• 2006

This study was performed to develop a predictive model for the growth kinetics of Listeria monocytogenes in tryptic soy broth (TSB) using a response surface model with a combination of potassium lactate (PL), temperature, and pH. The growth parameters, specific growth rate (SGR), and lag time (LT) were obtained by fitting the data into the Gompertz equation and showed high fitness with a correlation coefficient of $R^2{\geq}0.9192$. The polynomial model was identified as an appropriate secondary model for SGR and LT based on the coefficient of determination for the developed model ($R^2\;=\;0.97$ for SGR and $R^2\;=\;0.86$ for LT). The induced values that were calculated using the developed secondary model indicated that the growth kinetics of L. monocytogenes were dependent on storage temperature, pH, and PL. Finally, the predicted model was validated using statistical indicators, such as coefficient of determination, mean square error, bias factor, and accuracy factor. Validation of the model demonstrates that the overall prediction agreed well with the observed data. However, the model developed for SGR showed better predictive ability than the model developed for LT, which can be seen from its statistical validation indices, with the exception of the bias factor ($B_f$ was 0.6 for SGR and 0.97 for LT).

• Food Science of Animal Resources
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• v.30 no.3
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• pp.487-494
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• 2010

Cooked pork can be easily contaminated with Staphylococcus aureus during carriage and serving after cooking. This study was performed to develop growth prediction models of S. aureus to assure the safety of cooked pork. The Baranyi and Gompertz primary predictive models were compared. These growth models for S. aureus in cooked pork were developed at storage temperatures of 5, 15, and $25^{\circ}C$. The specific growth rate (SGR) and lag time (LT) values were calculated. The Baranyi model, which displayed a $R^2$ of 0.98 and root mean square error (RMSE) of 0.27, was more compatible than the Gompertz model, which displayed 0.84 in both $R^2$ and RMSE. The Baranyi model was used to develop a response surface secondary model to indicate changes of LT and SGR values according to storage temperature. The compatibility of the developed model was confirmed by calculating $R^2$, $B_f$, $A_f$, and RMSE values as statistic parameters. At 5, 15 and $25^{\circ}C$, $R^2$ was 0.88, 0.99 and 0.99; RMSE was 0.11, 0.24 and 0.10; $B_f$ was 1.12, 1.02 and 1.03; and $A_f$ was 1.17, 1.03 and 1.03, respectively. The developed predictive growth model is suitable to predict the growth of S. aureus in cooked pork, and so has potential in the microbial risk assessment as an input value or model.

• Korean Journal of Food Science and Technology
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• v.37 no.6
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• pp.1012-1017
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• 2005

Predictive growth model of putrefactive bacteria of surimi-based imitation crab in the modified surimi-based imitation crab (MIC) broth was investigated. The growth curves of putrefactive bacteria were obtained by measuring cell number in MIC broth under different conditions (Initial cell number, $1.0{\times}10^2,\;1.0{\times}10^3$ and $1.0{\times}10^4$ colony forming unit (CFU)/mL; temperature, $15^{\circ}C,\;20^{\circ}C\;and\;25^{\circ}C$) and applied them to Gompertz model. The microbial growth indicators, maximum specific growth rate constant (k), lag time (LT) and generation time (GT), were calculated from Gompertz model. Maximum specific growth rate (k) of putrefactive bacteria was become fast with rising temperature and fastest at $25^{\circ}C$. LT and GT were become short with rising temperature and shortest at $25^{\circ}C$. There were not significant differences in k, LT and GT by initial cell number (p>0.05). Polynomial model, $k=-0.2160+0.0241T-0.0199A_0$, and square root model, $\sqrt{k}=0.02669$ (T-3.5689), were developed to express the combination effects of temperature and initial cell number, The relative coefficient of experimental k and predicted k of polynomial model was 0.87 from response surface model. The relative coefficient of experimental k and predicted k of square root model was 0.88. From above results, we found that the growth of putrefactive bacteria was mainly affected by temperature and the square root model was more credible than the polynomial model for the prediction of the growth of putrefactive bacteria.

• Korean Journal of Food Science and Technology
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• v.36 no.2
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• pp.349-354
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• 2004

Predictive growth model of Vibrio parahaemolyticus in modified surimi-based imitation crab broth was investigated. Growth curves of V. parahaemolyticus were obtained by measuring cell concentration in culture broth under different conditions ($Initial\;cell\;level,\;1{\times}10^{2},\;1{\times}10^{3},\;and\;1{\times}10^{4}\;colony\;forming\;unit\;(CFU)/mL$; temperature, 15, 25 37, and $40^{\circ}C$; pH 6, 7, and 8) and applying them to Gompertz model. Microbial growth indicators, maximum specific growth rate (k), lag time (LT), and generation time (GT), were calculated from Gompertz model. Maximum specific growth rate (k) of V. parahaemolyticus increased with increasing temperature, reaching maximum rate at $37^{\circ}C$. LT and GT were also the shortest at $37^{\circ}C$. pH and initial cell number did not influence k, LT, and GT values significantly (p>0.05). Polynomial model, $k=a{\cdot}\exp(-0.5{\cdot}((T-T_{max}/b)^{2}+((pH-pH_{max)/c^{2}))$, and square root model, ${\sqrt{k}\;0.06(T-9.55)[1-\exp(0.07(T-49.98))]$, were developed to express combination effects of temperature and pH under each initial cell number using Gauss-Newton Algorism of Sigma plot 7.0 (SPSS Inc.). Relative coefficients between experimental k and k Predicted by polynomial model were 0.966, 0.979, and 0.965, respectively, at initial cell numbers of $1{\times}10^{2},\;1{\times}10^{3},\;and\;1{\times}10^{4}CFU/mL$, while that between experimental k and k Predicted by square root model was 0.977. Results revealed growth of V. parahaemolyticus was mainly affected by temperature, and square root model showing effect of temperature was more credible than polynomial model for prediction of V. parahaemolyticus growth.

• Food Science of Animal Resources
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• v.30 no.1
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• pp.49-54
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• 2010

The aim of this research was to estimate the effect of temperature and develop predictive models for the growth of total viable cells (TVC) and Escherichia coli (EC) on chicken breast under aerobic and various temperature conditions. The primary models were determined by Baranyi model. The secondary models for the specific growth rate (SGR) and lag time (LT), as a function of storage temperature, were developed by the polynomial model. The initial contamination level of chicken breasts was around 4.3 Log CFU/g of TVC and 1.0 Log CFU/g of E. coli. During 216 h of storage, SGR of TVC showed 0.05, 0.15, and 0.54 Log CFU/g/h at 5, 15, and $25^{\circ}C$. Also, the growth tendency of EC was similar to those of TVC. As storage temperature increased, the values of SGR of microorganisms increased dramatically and the values of LT decreased inversely. The predicted growth models with experimental data were evaluated by $B_f$, $A_f$, RMSE, and $R^2$. These values indicated that these developed models were reliable to express the growth of TVC and EC on chicken breasts. The temperature changes of distribution and showcase in markets might affect the growth of microorganisms and spoilage of chicken breast mainly.

• Food Science of Animal Resources
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• v.35 no.1
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• pp.108-113
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• 2015

The purpose of this study was to develop predictive models for the growth of Listeria monocytogenes in pork Bulgogi at various storage temperatures. A two-strain mixture of L. monocytogenes (ATCC 15313 and isolated from pork Bulgogi) was inoculated on pork Bulgogi at 3 Log CFU/g. L. monocytogenes strains were enumerated using general plating method on Listeria selective medium. The inoculated samples were stored at 5, 15, and $25^{\circ}C$ for primary models. Primary models were developed using the Baranyi model equations, and the maximum specific growth rate was shown to be dependent on storage temperature. A secondary model of growth rate as a function of storage temperature was also developed. As the storage temperature increased, the lag time (LT) values decreased dramatically and the specific growth rate of L. monocytogenes increased. The mathematically predicted growth parameters were evaluated based on the modified bias factor ($B_f$), accuracy factor ($A_f$), root mean square error (RMSE), coefficient of determination ($R^2$), and relative errors (RE). These values indicated that the developed models were reliably able to predict the growth of L. monocytogenes in pork Bulgogi. Hence, the predictive models may be used to assess microbiological hygiene in the meat supply chain as a function of storage temperature.

• Food Science of Animal Resources
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• v.29 no.3
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• pp.289-295
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• 2009

The aim of this research was to develop predictive models for the growth of spoilage bacteria (total viable cells, Pseudomonas spp., and lactic acid bacteria) on frankfurters and to estimate the shelf-life of frankfurters under aerobic conditions at various storage temperatures (5, 15, and $25^{\circ}C$). The primary models were determined using the Baranyi model equation. The secondary models for maximum specific growth rate and lag time as functions of temperature were developed by the polynomial model equation. During 21 d of storage under various temperature conditions, lactic acid bacteria showed the longest lag time and the slowest growth rate among spoilage bacteria. The growth patterns of total viable cells and Pseudomonas spp. were similar each other. These data suggest that Pseudomonas spp. might be the dominant spoilage bacteria on frankfurters. As storage temperature increased, the growth rate of spoilage bacteria also increased and the lag time decreased. Furthermore, the shelf-life of frankfurters decreased from 7.0 to 4.3 and 1.9 (d) under increased temperature conditions. These results indicate that the most significant factor for spoilage bacteria growth is storage temperature. The values of $B_f$, $A_f$, RMSE, and $R^2$ indicate that these models were reliable for identifying the point of microbiological hazard for spoilage bacteria in frankfurters.

• Journal of the East Asian Society of Dietary Life
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• v.22 no.4
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• pp.558-565
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• 2012

The objective of this study was to develop a predictive growth model for Bacillus cereus in nutrient broth and validate the developed growth model in blanched vegetables. After inoculating B. cereus into nutrient broth, growth of B. cereus was investigated at 13, 17, 24, 30 and $35^{\circ}C$. Lag time (LT) decreased while specific growth rate (SGR) increased with an increase in storage temperature. Growth of B. cereus was not observed at temperatures lower than $12^{\circ}C$. Secondary growth models were developed to describe primary model parameters, including LT and SGR. Model performance was evaluated based on bias factor ($B_f$) and accuracy factor ($A_f$). In addition, we inoculated B. cereus into blanched vegetables stored at 13, 24, $35^{\circ}C$ and observed the growth kinetics of B. cereus in five different blanched vegetables. Growth of B. cereus was most delayed on Doraji at $13^{\circ}C$ and was not observed on Gosari at $13^{\circ}C$. Growth of B. cereus at $35^{\circ}C$ was significantly (p<0.05) slower on Gosari than on other blanched vegetables. The developed secondary LT model for broth in this study was suitable to predict growth of B. cereus on Doraji and Gosari, whereas the SGR model was only suitable for predicting the growth of B. cereus on mung bean sprout.

• The Transactions of the Korea Information Processing Society
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• v.7 no.7
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• pp.2076-2085
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• 2000

Almost all existing software reliability models are based on the assumptions of he software usage and software failure process. There, therefore, is no universally applicable software reliability model. To develop a universal software reliability model this paper suggests the predictive filter as a general software reliability prediction model for time domain failure data. Its usefulness is empirically verified by analyzing the failure datasets obtained from 14 different software projects. Based on the average relative prediction error, the suggested predictive filter is compared with other well-known neural network models and statistical software reliability growth models. Experimental results show that the predictive filter generally results in a simple model and adapts well across different software projects.