• Title/Summary/Keyword: Predictive

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A Review on Predictive Validity of Suicide Assessment Measures (자살성향 측정척도들의 자살예측력에 대한 고찰)

  • Park, Sung-Jin;Lim, Ayoung;Park, Subin;Na, Riji;Hong, Jin Pyo
    • Anxiety and mood
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    • v.9 no.1
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    • pp.10-18
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    • 2013
  • The increasing suicide rate is a serious problem in Korea. Because of increased awareness of suicidality as a problem and because completed suicide is the fourth leading cause of death, it is very important to assess the risk of suicide. The purpose of this review is to provide a systematic examination of predictive validity of measures of suicidal ideation and behavior. A number of instruments are described as useful for identifying individuals "at high risk" for suicidal behavior. However, the predictive validity for most suicide measures has not been established. The present review only includes suicide assessment instruments with published predictive validity. In addition to evaluating the suicide assessment with respect to predictive validity, the present review describes and summarizes the psychometric properties of each measure. In conclusion, because of the complexity of studying the risk of suicide and the paucity of well-designed studies, it is extremely difficult to compare and generalize these findings. In addition, only a few instruments, such as the Scale for Suicide Ideation, Suicide Intent Scale and the Beck Hopelessness Scale, have been found to be significant risk factors for completed suicide. Another problem in the field involves that there have been few suicide measures designed for elderly populations. Clearly, future research is needed to investigate the predictive validity of standardized measures for completed suicide, especially targeting elderly populations.

Product Recommendation System on VLDB using k-means Clustering and Sequential Pattern Technique (k-means 클러스터링과 순차 패턴 기법을 이용한 VLDB 기반의 상품 추천시스템)

  • Shim, Jang-Sup;Woo, Seon-Mi;Lee, Dong-Ha;Kim, Yong-Sung;Chung, Soon-Key
    • The KIPS Transactions:PartD
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    • v.13D no.7 s.110
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    • pp.1027-1038
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    • 2006
  • There are many technical problems in the recommendation system based on very large database(VLDB). So, it is necessary to study the recommendation system' structure and the data-mining technique suitable for the large scale Internet shopping mail. Thus we design and implement the product recommendation system using k-means clustering algorithm and sequential pattern technique which can be used in large scale Internet shopping mall. This paper processes user information by batch processing, defines the various categories by hierarchical structure, and uses a sequential pattern mining technique for the search engine. For predictive modeling and experiment, we use the real data(user's interest and preference of given category) extracted from log file of the major Internet shopping mall in Korea during 30 days. And we define PRP(Predictive Recommend Precision), PRR(Predictive Recommend Recall), and PF1(Predictive Factor One-measure) for evaluation. In the result of experiments, the best recommendation time and the best learning time of our system are much as O(N) and the values of measures are very excellent.

The methods to improve the performance of predictive model using machine learning for the quality properties of products (머신러닝을 활용한 제품 특성 예측모델의 성능향상 방법 연구)

  • Kim, Jong Hoon;Oh, Hayoung
    • Journal of the Korea Institute of Information and Communication Engineering
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    • v.25 no.6
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    • pp.749-756
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    • 2021
  • Thanks to PLC and IoT Sensor, huge amounts of data has been accumulated onto the companies' databases. Machine Learning Algorithms for the predictive model with good performance have been widely utilized in the manufacturing process. We present how to improve the performance of machine learning predictive models. To improve the performance of the predictive model, typical techniques such as increasing the sample size, optimizing the hyper parameters for the algorithm, and selecting a proper machine learning algorithm for the predictive model would be shown. We suggest some new ways to make the model performance much better. With the proposed methods, we can build a better predictive model for predicting and controlling product qualities and save incredibly large amount of quality failure cost.

A Comparison of Predictive Power among SSP Scenarios of Oyster Aquaculture Production (SSP 시나리오별 굴 양식 생산량 예측력 비교)

  • Min-Gyeong Jeong;Jong-Oh Nam
    • The Journal of Fisheries Business Administration
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    • v.54 no.1
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    • pp.37-49
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    • 2023
  • Climate change is a major global problem. Oysters, one of the most representative farmed fish in Korea, are attracting attention as candidates for blue carbon, an alternative to carbon neutrality. This study is analyzed by the SSP scenarios to determine the impact of oyster aquaculture production according to climate change. Based on the analysis, future productions of oysters are predicted by the SSP scenario. Significant differences by the SSP scenario are confirmed through predictive power tests among scenarios. Regression analysis was conducted from January 2001 to December 2014. As a result of the analysis, water temperature, water temperature quadratic term, salinity, salinity quadratic term, and month × water temperature cross term were estimated as significant variables. Oyster production which is predicted by the SSP scenario based on the significant variables from 2015 to 2022 was compared with actual production. The model with the highest predictive power was selected by RMSE and MAPE criteria. The predictive power was compared with the MDM test to determine which model was superior. As a result, based on RMSE and MAPE, the SSP1-2.6 scenario was selected as the best model and the SSP1-2.6, SSP2-4.5, and SSP3-7.0 scenarios all showed the same predictive power based on the MDM test. In conculusion, this study predicted oyster aquaculture production by 2030, not the distant future, due to the short duration of the analytical model. This study was found that oyster aquaculture production increased in all scenarios and there was no significant difference in predictive power by the SSP scenario.

On the Parcel Loading System of Naive Bayes-LSTM Model Based Predictive Maintenance Platform for Operational Safety and Reliability (Naive Bayes-LSTM 기반 예지정비 플랫폼 적용을 통한 화물 상차 시스템의 운영 안전성 및 신뢰성 확보 연구)

  • Sunwoo Hwang;Jinoh Kim;Junwoo Choi;Youngmin Kim
    • Journal of the Korea Safety Management & Science
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    • v.25 no.4
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    • pp.141-151
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    • 2023
  • Recently, due to the expansion of the logistics industry, demand for logistics automation equipment is increasing. The modern logistics industry is a high-tech industry that combines various technologies. In general, as various technologies are grafted, the complexity of the system increases, and the occurrence rate of defects and failures also increases. As such, it is time for a predictive maintenance model specialized for logistics automation equipment. In this paper, in order to secure the operational safety and reliability of the parcel loading system, a predictive maintenance platform was implemented based on the Naive Bayes-LSTM(Long Short Term Memory) model. The predictive maintenance platform presented in this paper works by collecting data and receiving data based on a RabbitMQ, loading data in an InMemory method using a Redis, and managing snapshot DB in real time. Also, in this paper, as a verification of the Naive Bayes-LSTM predictive maintenance platform, the function of measuring the time for data collection/storage/processing and determining outliers/normal values was confirmed. The predictive maintenance platform can contribute to securing reliability and safety by identifying potential failures and defects that may occur in the operation of the parcel loading system in the future.

A Study on Application of Predictive Coding Tool for Enterprise E-Discovery (기업의 전자증거개시 대응을 위한 예측 부호화(Predictive Coding) 도구 적용 방안)

  • Yu, Jun Sang;Yim, Jin Hee
    • Journal of the Korean Society for information Management
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    • v.33 no.4
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    • pp.125-157
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    • 2016
  • As the domestic companies which have made inroads into foreign markets have more lawsuits, these companies' demands for responding to E-Discovery are also increasing. E-Discovery, derived from Anglo-American law, is the system to find electronic evidences related to lawsuits among scattered electronic data within limited time, to review them as evidences, and to submit them. It is not difficult to find, select, review, and submit evidences within limited time given the reality that the domestic companies do not manage their records even though lots of electronic records are produced everyday. To reduce items to be reviewed and proceed the process efficiently is one of the most important tasks to win a lawsuit. The Predictive Coding is a computer assisted review instrument used in reviewing process of E-Discovery, which is to help companies review their own electronic data using mechanical learning. Predictive Coding is more efficient than the previous computer assister review tools and has a merit to select electronic data related to lawsuit. Through companies' selection of efficient computer assisted review instrument and continuous records management, it is expected that time and cost for reviewing will be saved. Therefore, in for companies to respond to E-Discovery, it is required to seek the most effective method through introduction of the professional Predictive Coding solution and Business records management with consideration of time and cost.

A Novel Discrete-Time Predictive Current Control for PMSM

  • Sun, Jung-Won;Suh, Jin-Ho;Lee, Young-Jin;Lee, Kwon-Soon
    • 제어로봇시스템학회:학술대회논문집
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    • 2004.08a
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    • pp.1915-1919
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    • 2004
  • In this paper, we propose a new discrete-time predictive current controller for a PMSM(Permanent Magnet Synchronous Motor). The main objectives of the current controllers are to ensure that the measured stator currents tract the command values accurately and to shorten the transient interval as much as possible, in order to obtain high-performance of ac drive system. The conventional predictive current controller is hard to implement in full digital current controller since a finite calculation time causes a delay between the current sensing time and the time that it takes to apply the voltage to motor. A new control strategy in this paper is seen the scheme that gets the fast adaptation of transient current change, the fast transient response tracking and is proposed simplified calculation. Moreover, the validity of the proposed method is demonstrated by numerical simulations and the simulation results will be verified the improvements of predictive controller and accuracy of the current controller.

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A Predictive Model of Depression in Rural Elders-Decision Tree Analysis (의사결정나무 분석기법을 이용한 농촌거주 노인의 우울예측모형 구축)

  • Kim, Seong Eun;Kim, Sun Ah
    • Journal of Korean Academy of Nursing
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    • v.43 no.3
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    • pp.442-451
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    • 2013
  • Purpose: This descriptive study was done to develop a predictive model of depression in rural elders that will guide prevention and reduction of depression in elders. Methods: A cross-sectional descriptive survey was done using face-to-face private interviews. Participants included in the final analysis were 461 elders (aged${\geq}$ 65 years). The questions were on depression, personal and environmental factors, body functions and structures, activity and participation. Decision tree analysis using the SPSS Modeler 14.1 program was applied to build an optimum and significant predictive model to predict depression in rural elders. Results: From the data analysis, the predictive model for factors related to depression in rural elders presented with 4 pathways. Predictive factors included exercise capacity, self-esteem, farming, social activity, cognitive function, and gender. The accuracy of the model was 83.7%, error rate 16.3%, sensitivity 63.3%, and specificity 93.6%. Conclusion: The results of this study can be used as a theoretical basis for developing a systematic knowledge system for nursing and for developing a protocol that prevents depression in elders living in rural areas, thereby contributing to advanced depression prevention for elders.

Validation of Fall Risk Assessment Scales among Hospitalized Patients in South Korea using Retrospective Data Analysis (후향적 자료분석을 통한 낙상위험 사정도구의 타당도 비교: 종합병원 입원 환자를 중심으로)

  • Kang, Young Ok;Song, Rhayun
    • Korean Journal of Adult Nursing
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    • v.27 no.1
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    • pp.29-38
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    • 2015
  • Purpose: The purpose of the study was to validate fall risk assessment scales among hospitalized adult patients in South Korea using the electronic medical records by comparing sensitivity, specificity, positive predictive values, and negative predictive values of Morse Fall Scale (MFS), Bobath Memorial Hospital Fall Risk Assessment Scale (BMFRAS), and Johns Hopkins Hospital Fall Risk Assessment tool (JHFRAT). Methods: A total of 120 patients who experienced fall episodes during their hospitalization from June 2010 to December 2013 was categorized into the fall group. Another 120 patients, who didn't experience fall episodes with age, sex, clinical departments, and the type of wards matched with the fall group, were categorized to the comparison group. Data were analyzed for the comparisons of sensitivity, specificity, positive and negative predictive values, and the area under the curve of the three tools. Results: MFS at a cut-off score of 48 had .806 for ROC curves, 76.7% for sensitivity, 77.5% for specificity, 77.3% for positive predictive value, and 76.9% for negative predictive value, which were the highest values among the three fall assessment scales. Conclusion: The MFS with the highest score and the highest discrimination was evaluated to be suitable and reasonable for predicting falls of inpatients in med-surg units of university hospitals.