• Title/Summary/Keyword: Prediction-Based

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Development of a Prediction Model for Personal Thermal Sensation on Logistic Regression Considering Urban Spatial Factors (도시공간적 요인을 고려한 로지스틱 회귀분석 기반 체감더위 예측 모형 개발)

  • Uk-Je SUNG;Hyeong-Min PARK;Jae-Yeon LIM;Yu-Jin SEO;Jeong-Min SON;Jin-Kyu MIN;Jeong-Hee EUM
    • Journal of the Korean Association of Geographic Information Studies
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    • v.27 no.1
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    • pp.81-98
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    • 2024
  • This study analyzed the impact of urban spatial factors on the thermal environment. The personal thermal sensation was set as the unit of thermal environment to analyze its correlation with environmental factors. To collect data on personal thermal sensation, Living Lab was applied, allowing citizens to record their thermal sensation and measure the temperature. Based on the input points of the collected personal thermal sensation, nearby urban spatial elements were collected to build a dataset for statistical analysis. Logistic regression analysis was conducted to analyze the impact of each factor on personal thermal sensation. The analysis results indicate that the temperature is influenced by the surrounding spatial environment, showing a negative correlation with building height, greenery rate, and road rate, and a positive correlation with sky view factor. Furthermore, the road rate, sky view factor, and greenery rate, in that order, had a strong impact on perceived heat. The results of this study are expected to be utilized as basic data for assessing the thermal environment to prepare local thermal environment measures in response to climate change.

Discussion on Detection of Sediment Moisture Content at Different Altitudes Employing UAV Hyperspectral Images (무인항공 초분광 영상을 기반으로 한 고도에 따른 퇴적물 함수율 탐지 고찰)

  • Kyoungeun Lee;Jaehyung Yu;Chanhyeok Park;Trung Hieu Pham
    • Economic and Environmental Geology
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    • v.57 no.4
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    • pp.353-362
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    • 2024
  • This study examined the spectral characteristics of sediments according to moisture content using an unmanned aerial vehicle (UAV)-based hyperspectral sensor and evaluated the efficiency of moisture content detection at different flight altitudes. For this purpose, hyperspectral images in the 400-1000nm wavelength range were acquired and analyzed at altitudes of 40m and 80m for sediment samples with various moisture contents. The reflectance of the sediments generally showed a decreasing trend as the moisture content increased. Correlation analysis between moisture content and reflectance showed a strong negative correlation (r < -0.8) across the entire 400-900nm range. The moisture content detection model constructed using the Random Forest technique showed detection accuracies of RMSE 2.6%, R2 0.92 at 40m altitude and RMSE 2.2%, R2 0.95 at 80m altitude, confirming that the difference in accuracy between altitudes was minimal. Variable importance analysis revealed that the 600-700nm band played a crucial role in moisture content detection. This study is expected to be utilized in efficient sediment moisture management and natural disaster prediction in the field of environmental monitoring in the future.

A Service Life Prediction for Unsound Concrete Under Carbonation Through Probability of Durable Failure (탄산화에 노출된 콘크리트 취약부의 확률론적 내구수명 평가)

  • Kwon, Seung Jun;Park, Sang Soon;Nam, Sang Hyeok;Lho, Byeong Cheol
    • Journal of the Korea institute for structural maintenance and inspection
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    • v.12 no.2
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    • pp.49-58
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    • 2008
  • Generally, steel corrosion occurs in concrete structures due to carbonation in down-town area and underground site and it propagates to degradation of structural performance. In general diagnosis and inspection, only carbonation depth in sound concrete is evaluated but unsound concrete such as joint and cracked area may occur easily in a concrete member due to construction process. In this study, field survey of carbonation for RC columns in down-town area is performed and carbonation depth in joint and cracked concrete including sound area is measured. Probability of durable failure with time is calculated through probability variables such as concrete cover depth and carbonation depth which are obtained from field survey. In addition, service life of the structures is predicted based on the intended probability of durable failure in domestic concrete specification. It is evaluated that in a RC column, various service life is predicted due to local condition and it is rapidly decreased with insufficient cover depth and growth of crack width. It is also evaluated that obtaining cover depth and quality of concrete is very important because the probability of durable failure is closely related with C.O.V. of cover depth.

Temperature Prediction and Control of Cement Preheater Using Alternative Fuels (대체연료를 사용하는 시멘트 예열실 온도 예측 제어)

  • Baasan-Ochir Baljinnyam;Yerim Lee;Boseon Yoo;Jaesik Choi
    • Resources Recycling
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    • v.33 no.4
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    • pp.3-14
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    • 2024
  • The preheating and calcination processes in cement manufacturing, which are crucial for producing the cement intermediate product clinker, require a substantial quantity of fossil fuels to generate high-temperature thermal energy. However, owing to the ever-increasing severity of environmental pollution, considerable efforts are being made to reduce carbon emissions from fossil fuels in the cement industry. Several preliminary studies have focused on increasing the usage of alternative fuels like refuse-derived fuel (RDF). Alternative fuels offer several advantages, such as reduced carbon emissions, mitigated generation of nitrogen oxides, and incineration in preheaters and kilns instead of landfilling. However, owing to the diverse compositions of alternative fuels, estimating their calorific value is challenging. This makes it difficult to regulate the preheater stability, thereby limiting the usage of alternative fuels. Therefore, in this study, a model based on deep neural networks is developed to accurately predict the preheater temperature and propose optimal fuel input quantities using explainable artificial intelligence. Utilizing the proposed model in actual preheating process sites resulted in a 5% reduction in fossil fuel usage, 5%p increase in the substitution rate with alternative fuels, and 35% reduction in preheater temperature fluctuations.

A Study on the Cigarette price increases induced changes in Smoking rate and Smoking cessation plan (담배가격 인상에 따른 흡연율 및 금연계획의 변화)

  • Soo-Bok Lee;Jeong-An Seo
    • Journal of the Health Care and Life Science
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    • v.10 no.2
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    • pp.295-303
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    • 2022
  • The purpose of this study is to investigate the changes in smoking rates and smoking cessation plans before and after the cigarette price increases in 2015. Therefore, based on the National Health and Nutrition Survey, this study analyzes the correlation of the change in smoking rate and cessation plans with sociological variables (gender, age, income quintile, occupation, education level, hypertension, diabetes) and health behaviors (drinking, stress perception, obesity) in 2013 before the cigarette price increases and in 2015 and then in 2017. Results indicated that the smoking rate in 2013 was 23.3%, the smoking rate in 2015 was 20.5%, and the smoking rate in 2017 was 21.0%, indicating that the smoking rate decreased compared to before the cigarette price was raised. Among the sociological variables, the cigarette price increases showed a difference in the smoking rate of income, occupation, and education level, and health behavior was found to have no significant effect on smoking rate. In addition, the cigarette price increases showed a temporary effect on the increase in the smoking cessation plan, but the increase in the smoking cessation plan did not necessarily lead to decrease the smoking rate. Therefore, in the future, efforts will be needed at the national level to provide customized smoking cessation programs by gender, age, and social factors so that the smoking cessation plan can lead to decrease the smoking rate. In addition, Research on health behaviors that were not identifited in this study should also be conducted. We hope that this study will help the prediction of the impact of smoking rate in case the price increases policies are considered or implemented.

Effects of diets for three growing stages by rumen inocula donors on in vitro rumen fermentation and microbiome

  • Ryukseok Kang;Huseong Lee;Hyeonsu Seon;Cheolju Park;Jaeyong Song;Joong Kook Park;Yong Kwan Kim;Minseok Kim;Tansol Park
    • Journal of Animal Science and Technology
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    • v.66 no.3
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    • pp.523-542
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    • 2024
  • Hanwoo and Jeju Black cattle (Jeju Black) are native breeds of Korean cattle. Jeju Black cattle are recognized as natural monuments and are known to exhibit slower growth rates compared to Hanwoo. While several studies have analyzed the genetic characteristics of these cattle, there has been limited research on the differences in their microbiome. In this study, rumen fluid was obtained from three Hanwoo steers and three Jeju Black steers, and three different diets (total mixed rations [TMRs] for growing, early fattening, and late fattening periods) were used as substrates for in vitro fermentation. The in vitro incubation was conducted for 3 h and 24 h following a 2 × 3 factorial arrangement. After both incubation periods, fermentation characteristics were analyzed, and ruminal microbiome analysis was performed using 16S rRNA gene sequencing, employing both QIIME2 and PICRUSt2. The results revealed significant differences in the ruminal microbiota due to the inoculum effect. At the phylum level, Patescibacteria and Synergistota were found to be enriched in the Jeju Black inoculum-treated group. Additionally, using different inocula also affected the relative abundance of major taxa, including Ruminococcus, Pseudoramibacter, Ruminococcaceae CAG-352, and the [Eubacterium] ruminantium group. These microbial differences induced by the inoculum may have originated from varying levels of domestication between the two subspecies of donor animals, which mainly influenced the fermentation and microbiome features in the early incubation stages, although this was only partially offset afterward. Furthermore, predicted commission numbers of microbial enzymes, some of which are involved in the biosynthesis of secondary metabolites, fatty acids, and alpha amylase, differed based on the inoculum effect. However, these differences may account for only a small proportion of the overall metabolic pathway. Conversely, diets were found to affect protein biosynthesis and its related metabolism, which showed differential abundance in the growing diet and were potentially linked to the growth-promoting effects in beef cattle during the growing period. In conclusion, this study demonstrated that using different inocula significantly affected in vitro fermentation characteristics and microbiome features, mainly in the early stages of incubation, with some effects persisting up to 24 h of incubation.

A Fast Processor Architecture and 2-D Data Scheduling Method to Implement the Lifting Scheme 2-D Discrete Wavelet Transform (리프팅 스킴의 2차원 이산 웨이브릿 변환 하드웨어 구현을 위한 고속 프로세서 구조 및 2차원 데이터 스케줄링 방법)

  • Kim Jong Woog;Chong Jong Wha
    • Journal of the Institute of Electronics Engineers of Korea SD
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    • v.42 no.4 s.334
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    • pp.19-28
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    • 2005
  • In this paper, we proposed a parallel fast 2-D discrete wavelet transform hardware architecture based on lifting scheme. The proposed architecture improved the 2-D processing speed, and reduced internal memory buffer size. The previous lifting scheme based parallel 2-D wavelet transform architectures were consisted with row direction and column direction modules, which were pair of prediction and update filter module. In 2-D wavelet transform, column direction processing used the row direction results, which were not generated in column direction order but in row direction order, so most hardware architecture need internal buffer memory. The proposed architecture focused on the reducing of the internal memory buffer size and the total calculation time. Reducing the total calculation time, we proposed a 4-way data flow scheduling and memory based parallel hardware architecture. The 4-way data flow scheduling can increase the row direction parallel performance, and reduced the initial latency of starting of the row direction calculation. In this hardware architecture, the internal buffer memory didn't used to store the results of the row direction calculation, while it contained intermediate values of column direction calculation. This method is very effective in column direction processing, because the input data of column direction were not generated in column direction order The proposed architecture was implemented with VHDL and Altera Stratix device. The implementation results showed overall calculation time reduced from $N^2/2+\alpha$ to $N^2/4+\beta$, and internal buffer memory size reduced by around $50\%$ of previous works.

Evaluation of Agro-Climatic Index Using Multi-Model Ensemble Downscaled Climate Prediction of CMIP5 (상세화된 CMIP5 기후변화전망의 다중모델앙상블 접근에 의한 농업기후지수 평가)

  • Chung, Uran;Cho, Jaepil;Lee, Eun-Jeong
    • Korean Journal of Agricultural and Forest Meteorology
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    • v.17 no.2
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    • pp.108-125
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    • 2015
  • The agro-climatic index is one of the ways to assess the climate resources of particular agricultural areas on the prospect of agricultural production; it can be a key indicator of agricultural productivity by providing the basic information required for the implementation of different and various farming techniques and practicalities to estimate the growth and yield of crops from the climate resources such as air temperature, solar radiation, and precipitation. However, the agro-climate index can always be changed since the index is not the absolute. Recently, many studies which consider uncertainty of future climate change have been actively conducted using multi-model ensemble (MME) approach by developing and improving dynamic and statistical downscaling of Global Climate Model (GCM) output. In this study, the agro-climatic index of Korean Peninsula, such as growing degree day based on $5^{\circ}C$, plant period based on $5^{\circ}C$, crop period based on $10^{\circ}C$, and frost free day were calculated for assessment of the spatio-temporal variations and uncertainties of the indices according to climate change; the downscaled historical (1976-2005) and near future (2011-2040) RCP climate sceneries of AR5 were applied to the calculation of the index. The result showed four agro-climatic indices calculated by nine individual GCMs as well as MME agreed with agro-climatic indices which were calculated by the observed data. It was confirmed that MME, as well as each individual GCM emulated well on past climate in the four major Rivers of South Korea (Han, Nakdong, Geum, and Seumjin and Yeoungsan). However, spatial downscaling still needs further improvement since the agro-climatic indices of some individual GCMs showed different variations with the observed indices at the change of spatial distribution of the four Rivers. The four agro-climatic indices of the Korean Peninsula were expected to increase in nine individual GCMs and MME in future climate scenarios. The differences and uncertainties of the agro-climatic indices have not been reduced on the unlimited coupling of multi-model ensembles. Further research is still required although the differences started to improve when combining of three or four individual GCMs in the study. The agro-climatic indices which were derived and evaluated in the study will be the baseline for the assessment of agro-climatic abnormal indices and agro-productivity indices of the next research work.

정지궤도 통신해양기상위성의 기상분야 요구사항에 관하여

  • Ahn, Myung-Hwan;Kim, Kum-Lan
    • Atmosphere
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    • v.12 no.4
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    • pp.20-42
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    • 2002
  • Based on the "Mid to Long Term Plan for Space Development", a project to launch COMeS (Communication, Oceanography, and Meteorological Satellite) into the geostationary orbit is undergoing. Accordingly, KMA (Korea Meteorological Administration) has defined the meteorological missions and prepared the user requirements to fulfill the missions. To make a realistic user requirements, we prepared a first draft based on the ideal meteorological products derivable from a geostationary platform and sent the RFI (request for information) to the sensor manufacturers. Based on the responses to the RFI and other considerations, we revised the user requirement to be a realistic plan for the 2008 launch of the satellite. This manuscript introduces the revised user requirements briefly. The major mission defined in the revised user requirement is the augmentation of the detection and prediction ability of the severe weather phenomena, especially around the Korean Peninsula. The required payload is an enhanced Imager, which includes the major observation channels of the current geostationary sounder. To derive the required meteorological products from the Imager, at least 12 channels are required with the optimum of 16 channels. The minimum 12 channels are 6 wavelength bands used for current geostationary satellite, and additional channels in two visible bands, a near infrared band, two water vapor bands and one ozone absorption band. From these enhanced channel observation, we are going to derive and utilize the information of water vapor, stability index, wind field, and analysis of special weather phenomena such as the yellow sand event in addition to the standard derived products from the current geostationary Imager data. For a better temporal coverage, the Imager is required to acquire the full disk data within 15 minutes and to have the rapid scan mode for the limited area coverage. The required thresholds of spatial resolutions are 1 km and 2 km for visible and infrared channels, respectively, while the target resolutions are 0.5 km and 1 km.

Empirical Forecast of Corotating Interacting Regions and Geomagnetic Storms Based on Coronal Hole Information (코로나 홀을 이용한 CIR과 지자기 폭풍의 경험적 예보 연구)

  • Lee, Ji-Hye;Moon, Yong-Jae;Choi, Yun-Hee;Yoo, Kye-Hwa
    • Journal of Astronomy and Space Sciences
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    • v.26 no.3
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    • pp.305-316
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    • 2009
  • In this study, we suggest an empirical forecast of CIR (Corotating Interaction Regions) and geomagnetic storm based on the information of coronal holes (CH). For this we used CH data obtained from He I $10830{\AA}$ maps at National Solar Observatory-Kitt Peak from January 1996 to November 2003 and the CIR and storm data that Choi et al. (2009) identified. Considering the relationship among coronal holes, CIRs, and geomagnetic storms (Choi et al. 2009), we propose the criteria for geoeffective coronal holes; the center of CH is located between $N40^{\circ}$ and $S40^{\circ}$ and between $E40^{\circ}$ and $W20^{\circ}$, and its area in percentage of solar hemispheric area is larger than the following areas: (1) case 1: 0.36%, (2) case 2: 0.66%, (3) case 3: 0.36% for 1996-2000, and 0.66% for 2001-2003. Then we present contingency tables between prediction and observation for three cases and their dependence on solar cycle phase. From the contingency tables, we determined several statistical parameters for forecast evaluation such as PODy (the probability of detection yes), FAR (the false alarm ratio), Bias (the ratio of "yes" predictions to "yes" observations) and CSI (critical success index). Considering the importance of PODy and CSI, we found that the best criterion is case 3; CH-CIR: PODy=0.77, FAR=0.66, Bias=2.28, CSI=0.30. CH-storm: PODy=0.81, FAR=0.84, Bias=5.00, CSI=0.16. It is also found that the parameters after the solar maximum are much better than those before the solar maximum. Our results show that the forecasting of CIR based on coronal hole information is meaningful but the forecast of goemagnetic storm is challenging.