• Title/Summary/Keyword: Prediction-Based

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Prediction of Prognosis to Concurrent Chemo-Radiotherapy by Standardized Uptake Value of $2-[18^F]$ Fluovo-2-Deoxy-D-Glucose for Nasopharyngeal Carcinomas (비인강암 환자의 예후에서 $2-[18^F]$ Fluoro-2-Deoxy-D-Glucose PET 영상에서 계산되는 Standardized Uptake Value의 의의)

  • Lee Sang-wook;Im Ki Chun;Nam Soon Yuhl;Kim Jae Seung;Choi Eun Kyung;Ahn Seung Do;Shin Seong Soo;Ryu Jin Sook;Kim Sang Yoon;Lee Bong-Jae;Choi Seung-Ho;Kim Sung-Bae;Moon Dae Hyuk
    • Radiation Oncology Journal
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    • v.23 no.1
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    • pp.9-16
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    • 2005
  • Purpose : To prospectively evaluate the use of positron emission tomography with the glucose analog fluoro-deoxyglucose (FDG-PET) to deoxyglucose (FDG-PET) to predict disease-free survival (DFS) after concurrent chemo-radiotherapy (CCRT) in patients with non-disseminated nasopharyngeal carcinoma (NPC). Materials and Methods : We studied 41 patients with non-disseminated NPC scheduled to undergo platinum-based CCRT were eligible for this study. Patients were studied by FDG-PET prior to the CCRT. FDG uptake of tumors were measured with the maximal standardized uptake value (SUV). Results : Complete response rate was $100\%$. In ten patients who presented with any component of treatment failure, the median $SUV_{max}$ was 8.55 (range: $2.49\~14.81$) in any component of failure and the median $SUV_{max}$ was 5.48 (range: $2.31\~26.07$) In the remaining patients without any such failure. Patients having tumors with high FDG uptake had a significantly lower 3-year DFS ($51\%\;{\nu}91\%$, p=0.0070) compared with patients having low uptake tumors. Conclusion : FDG uptake, as measured by the SUV, has potential value in predicting DFS in NPC treated by CCRT, High FDG uptake may be a useful parameter for Identifying patients requiring more aggressive treatment approaches.

Predicting the Goshawk's habitat area using Species Distribution Modeling: Case Study area Chungcheongbuk-do, South Korea (종분포모형을 이용한 참매의 서식지 예측 -충청북도를 대상으로-)

  • Cho, Hae-Jin;Kim, Dal-Ho;Shin, Man-Seok;Kang, Tehan;Lee, Myungwoo
    • Korean Journal of Environment and Ecology
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    • v.29 no.3
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    • pp.333-343
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    • 2015
  • This research aims at identifying the goshawk's possible and replaceable breeding ground by using the MaxEnt prediction model which has so far been insufficiently used in Korea, and providing evidence to expand possible protection areas for the goshawk's breeding for the future. The field research identified 10 goshawk's nests, and 23 appearance points confirmed during the 3rd round of environmental research were used for analysis. 4 geomorphic, 3 environmental, 7 distance, and 9 weather factors were used as model variables. The final environmental variables were selected through non-parametric verification between appearance and non-appearance coordinates identified by random sampling. The final predictive model (MaxEnt) was structured using 10 factors related to breeding ground and 7 factors related to appearance area selected by statistics verification. According to the results of the study, the factor that affected breeding point structure model the most was temperature seasonality, followed by distance from mixforest, density-class on the forest map and relief energy. The factor that affected appearance point structure model the most was temperature seasonality, followed by distance from rivers and ponds, distance from agricultural land and gradient. The nature of the goshawk's breeding environment and habit to breed inside forests were reflected in this modeling that targets breeding points. The northern central area which is about $189.5 km^2$(2.55 %) is expected to be suitable breeding ground. Large cities such as Cheongju and Chungju are located in the southern part of Chungcheongbuk-do whereas the northern part of Chungcheongbuk-do has evenly distributed forests and farmlands, which helps goshawks have a scope of influence and food source to breed. Appearance point modeling predicted an area of $3,071 km^2$(41.38 %) showing a wider ranging habitat than that of the breeding point modeling due to some limitations such as limited moving observation and non-consideration of seasonal changes. When targeting the breeding points, a specific predictive area can be deduced but it is difficult to check the points of nests and it is impossible to reflect the goshawk's behavioral area. On the other hand, when targeting appearance points, a wider ranging area can be covered but it is less accurate compared to predictive breeding point since simple movements and constant use status are not reflected. However, with these results, the goshawk's habitat can be predicted with reasonable accuracy. In particular, it is necessary to apply precise predictive breeding area data based on habitat modeling results when enforcing an environmental evaluation or establishing a development plan.

Effect of Package Size and Pasteurization Temperature on the Quality of Sous Vide Processed Spinach (Sous Vide 가공 시금치의 품질에 미치는 포장단위 및 살균온도의 영향)

  • 장재덕;김기태;이동선
    • Food Science and Preservation
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    • v.11 no.2
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    • pp.195-200
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    • 2004
  • Microbial lethal value and nutrient retention of sous vide processed spinach were evaluated with mathematical model prediction and experimental trial for different package sizes and pasteurization temperatures. The package size covers 500 g, 1 kg and 2 kg, while the pasteurization temperature includes 80, 90 and 97$^{\circ}C$. The basic process scheme consists of filling blanched spinach into barrier plastic film pouch, sealing under vacuum, pasteurization in hot water with over pressure and final cooling to 3$^{\circ}C$. Pasteurization condition was designed based on attainment of 6 decimal inactivation of Listeria monocytogenes at geometric center of the pouch package by heating cycle, which was determined by general method. Heat penetration property of the package and thermal destruction kinetics were combined to estimate the retention of ascorbic acid and chlorophyll. Smaller packages with shorter pasteurization time gave better nutrient retention, physical and chemical qualities. Larger package size was estimated and confirmed experimentally to give higher pasteurization value at center, lower ascorbic acid and chlorophyll contents caused by longer heat process time. Lower pasteurization temperature with longer process time was predicted to give lower pasteurization value at center and lower ascorbic acid, while chlorophyll content was affected little by the temperature. Experimental trial showed better retention of ascorbic acid and chlorophyll for smaller package and higher pasteurization temperature with shorter heating time. The beneficial effect of smaller package and higher pasteurization temperature was also observed in texture, color retention and drip production.

Variation of Inflow Density Currents with Different Flood Magnitude in Daecheong Reservoir (홍수 규모별 대청호에 유입하는 하천 밀도류의 특성 변화)

  • Yoon, Sung-Wan;Chung, Se-Woong;Choi, Jung-Kyu
    • Journal of Korea Water Resources Association
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    • v.41 no.12
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    • pp.1219-1230
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    • 2008
  • Stream inflows induced by flood runoffs have a higher density than the ambient reservoir water because of a lower water temperature and elevated suspended sediment(SS) concentration. As the propagation of density currents that formed by density difference between inflow and ambient water affects reservoir water quality and ecosystem, an understanding of reservoir density current is essential for an optimization of filed monitoring, analysis and forecast of SS and nutrient transport, and their proper management and control. This study was aimed to quantify the characteristics of inflow density current including plunge depth($d_p$) and distance($X_p$), separation depth($d_s$), interflow thickness($h_i$), arrival time to dam($t_a$), reduction ratio(${\beta}$) of SS contained stream inflow for different flood magnitude in Daecheong Reservoir with a validated two-dimensional(2D) numerical model. 10 different flood scenarios corresponding to inflow densimetric Froude number($Fr_i$) range from 0.920 to 9.205 were set up based on the hydrograph obtained from June 13 to July 3, 2004. A fully developed stratification condition was assumed as an initial water temperature profile. Higher $Fr_i$(inertia-to-buoyancy ratio) resulted in a greater $d_p,\;X_p,\;d_s,\;h_i$, and faster propagation of interflow, while the effect of reservoir geometry on these characteristics was significant. The Hebbert equation that estimates $d_p$ assuming steady-state flow condition with triangular cross section substantially over-estimated the $d_p$ because it does not consider the spatial variation of reservoir geometry and water surface changes during flood events. The ${\beta}$ values between inflow and dam sites were decreased as $Fr_i$ increased, but reversed after $Fr_i$>9.0 because of turbulent mixing effect. The results provides a practical and effective prediction measures for reservoir operators to first capture the behavior of turbidity inflow.

Geographical Migration of Winter Barley in the Korean Peninsula under the RCP8.5 Projected Climate Condition (신 기후변화시나리오에 따른 한반도 내 겨울보리 재배적지 이동)

  • Kim, Dae-Jun;Kim, Jin-Hee;Roh, Jae-Hwan;Yun, Jin I.
    • Korean Journal of Agricultural and Forest Meteorology
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    • v.14 no.4
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    • pp.161-169
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    • 2012
  • The RCP 8.5 scenario based temperature outlook (12.5 km resolution) was combined with high-definition gridded temperature maps (30 m grid spacing) across the Korean Peninsula in order to reclassify the cold hardiness zone for winter barley, a promising grain crop in the future under warmer winter conditions. Reference maps for the January minimum and mean temperature were prepared by applying the watershed-specific geospatial climate prediction schemes to the synoptic observations from 1981 to 2010 across North and South Korea. Decadal changes in the January minimum and mean temperatures projected by a regional version of RCP8.5 climate change scenario were prepared for the 2011-2100 period at 12.5 km grid spacing and were subsequently added to the reference maps, producing the 30 m resolution temperature surfaces for 9 decades from 2011 to 2100. A criterion for threshold temperature to grow winter barley safely in Korea was applied to the future temperature surfaces and the resulting maps were used to predict the production potential of 3 cultivar groups for the 9 future decades under the projected temperature conditions. By 2020s, hulled barley cultivars could be grown safely at the southern part of North Korea as well as the mountainous Gangwon province. Furthermore, most of South Korean rice paddies will be safe for growing naked barley after harvesting rice. Also, dual cropping systems such as 'winter-barley after rice' could be possible at most of the North Korean rice paddies by 2040s. Additional grain production in North Korea could increase up to 4 million tons per year if dual cropping systems can be fully operated, i.e., winter barley after rice at all lowlands and winter barley after maize or potato at all uplands.

The Generation of Westerly Waves by Sobaek Mountains (소백산맥에 의한 서풍 파동 발생)

  • Kim, Jin wook;Youn, Daeok
    • Journal of the Korean earth science society
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    • v.38 no.1
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    • pp.24-34
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    • 2017
  • The westerly waves generation is described in the advanced earth science textbook used at high school as follows: as westerly wind approaches and blows over large mountains, the air flow shows wave motions in downwind side, which can be explained by the conservation of potential vorticity. However, there has been no case study showing the phenomena of the mesoscale westerly waves with observational data in the area of small mountains in Korea. And thus the wind speed and time persistency of westerly winds along with the width and length of mountains have never been studied to explain the generation of the westerly waves. As a first step, we assured the westerly waves generated in the downwind side of Sobaek mountains based on surface station wind data nearby. Furthermore, the critical or minimum wind velocity of the westerly wind over Sobaek mountains to generate the downwind wave were derived and calcuated tobe about $0.6m\;s^{-1}$ for Sobaek mountains, which means that the westerly waves could be generated in most cases of westerly blowing over the mountains. Using surface station data and 4-dimensional assimilation data of RDAPS (Regional Data Assimilation and Prediction System) provided by Korea Meteorological Agency, we also analyzed cases of westerly waves occurrence and life cycle in the downwind side of Sobaek mountains for a year of 2014. The westerly waves occurred in meso-${\beta}$ or -${\gamma}$ scales. The westerly waves generated by the mountains disappeared gradually with wind speed decreasing. The occurrence frequency of the vorticity with meso-${\beta}$ scale got to be higher when the stronger westerly wind blew. When we extended the spatial range of the analysis, phenomena of westerly waves were also observed in the downwind side of Yensan mountains in Northeastern China. Our current work will be a study material to help students understand the atmospheric phenomena perturbed by mountains.

Personalized Exhibition Booth Recommendation Methodology Using Sequential Association Rule (순차 연관 규칙을 이용한 개인화된 전시 부스 추천 방법)

  • Moon, Hyun-Sil;Jung, Min-Kyu;Kim, Jae-Kyeong;Kim, Hyea-Kyeong
    • Journal of Intelligence and Information Systems
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    • v.16 no.4
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    • pp.195-211
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    • 2010
  • An exhibition is defined as market events for specific duration to present exhibitors' main product range to either business or private visitors, and it also plays a key role as effective marketing channels. Especially, as the effect of the opinions of the visitors after the exhibition impacts directly on sales or the image of companies, exhibition organizers must consider various needs of visitors. To meet needs of visitors, ubiquitous technologies have been applied in some exhibitions. However, despite of the development of the ubiquitous technologies, their services cannot always reflect visitors' preferences as they only generate information when visitors request. As a result, they have reached their limit to meet needs of visitors, which consequently might lead them to loss of marketing opportunity. Recommendation systems can be the right type to overcome these limitations. They can recommend the booths to coincide with visitors' preferences, so that they help visitors who are in difficulty for choices in exhibition environment. One of the most successful and widely used technologies for building recommender systems is called Collaborative Filtering. Traditional recommender systems, however, only use neighbors' evaluations or behaviors for a personalized prediction. Therefore, they can not reflect visitors' dynamic preference, and also lack of accuracy in exhibition environment. Although there is much useful information to infer visitors' preference in ubiquitous environment (e.g., visitors' current location, booth visit path, and so on), they use only limited information for recommendation. In this study, we propose a booth recommendation methodology using Sequential Association Rule which considers the sequence of visiting. Recent studies of Sequential Association Rule use the constraints to improve the performance. However, since traditional Sequential Association Rule considers the whole rules to recommendation, they have a scalability problem when they are adapted to a large exhibition scale. To solve this problem, our methodology composes the confidence database before recommendation process. To compose the confidence database, we first search preceding rules which have the frequency above threshold. Next, we compute the confidences of each preceding rules to each booth which is not contained in preceding rules. Therefore, the confidence database has two kinds of information which are preceding rules and their confidence to each booth. In recommendation process, we just generate preceding rules of the target visitors based on the records of the visits, and recommend booths according to the confidence database. Throughout these steps, we expect reduction of time spent on recommendation process. To evaluate proposed methodology, we use real booth visit records which are collected by RFID technology in IT exhibition. Booth visit records also contain the visit sequence of each visitor. We compare the performance of proposed methodology with traditional Collaborative Filtering system. As a result, our proposed methodology generally shows higher performance than traditional Collaborative Filtering. We can also see some features of it in experimental results. First, it shows the highest performance at one booth recommendation. It detects preceding rules with some portions of visitors. Therefore, if there is a visitor who moved with very a different pattern compared to the whole visitors, it cannot give a correct recommendation for him/her even though we increase the number of recommendation. Trained by the whole visitors, it cannot correctly give recommendation to visitors who have a unique path. Second, the performance of general recommendation systems increase as time expands. However, our methodology shows higher performance with limited information like one or two time periods. Therefore, not only can it recommend even if there is not much information of the target visitors' booth visit records, but also it uses only small amount of information in recommendation process. We expect that it can give real?time recommendations in exhibition environment. Overall, our methodology shows higher performance ability than traditional Collaborative Filtering systems, we expect it could be applied in booth recommendation system to satisfy visitors in exhibition environment.

Macroeconomic Consequences of Pay-as-you-go Public Pension System (부과방식 공적연금의 거시경제적 영향)

  • Park, Chang-Gyun;Hur, Seok-Kyun
    • KDI Journal of Economic Policy
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    • v.30 no.2
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    • pp.225-270
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    • 2008
  • We analyze macroeconomic consequences of pay-as-you-go (PAYGO) public pension system with a simple overlapping generations model. Contrary to large body of existing literatures offering quantitative results based on simulation study, we take another route by adopting a highly simplified framework in search of qualitatively tractable analytical results. The main contribution of our results lies in providing a sound theoretical foundation that can be utilized in interpreting various quantitative results offered by simulation studies of large scale general equilibrium models. We present a simple overlapping generations model with a defined benefit(DB) PAYGO public pension system as a benchmark case and derive an analytical equilibrium solution utilizing graphical illustration. We also discuss the modifications of the benchmark model required to encompass a defined contribution(DC) public pension system into the basic framework. Comparative statics analysis provides three important implications; First, introduction and expansion of the PAYGO public pension, DB or DC, result in lower level of capital accumulation and higher expected rate of return on the risky asset. Second, it is shown that the progress of population aging is accompanied by lower capital stock due to decrease in both demand and supply of risky asset. Moreover, risk premium for risky asset increases(decreases) as the speed of population aging accelerates(decelerates) so that the possibility of so-called "the great meltdown" of asset market cannot be excluded although the odds are not high. Third, it is most likely that the switch from DB PAYGO to DC PAYGO would result in lower capital stock and higher expected return on the risky asset mainly due to the fact that the young generation regards DC PAYGO pension as another risky asset competing against the risky asset traded in the market. This theoretical prediction coincides with one of the firmly established propositions in empirical literature that the currently dominant form of public pension system has the tendency to crowd out private capital accumulation.

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A Meta-Analysis of Korean Literatures about Sick Role Behavior of Pulmonary Tuberculosis Patients applied Health Belief Model (건강신념모형을 적용한 폐결핵 환자의 환자역할행태 연구에 대한 메타분석)

  • Kim, Chun-Bae;Jo, Heui-Sug;Rhee, Jung-Ae
    • Journal of agricultural medicine and community health
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    • v.28 no.1
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    • pp.1-13
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    • 2003
  • Objectives: The purpose of this study is to summarize results from 11 domestic studies about sick role behavior applied health belief model and to assess the effectiveness of components on behavior change by using meta-analysis. Methods: We collected the existing literatures by using major web search of 'pulmonary tuberculosis patients', 'health belief model', and 'sick role behavior' as key words and by reviewing content of journals. Quantitative meta-analysis was performed by SAS program. Results: Among 66 articles, 11 studies were selected for quantitative meta-analysis. The knowledge level about pulmonary tuberculosis had more effect for only sick role behavior as general characterisitcs(d=0.7870). All the components of health belief model produced significant effects on sick role behavior with the magnitude of effect size from 0.31 to 0.73. The largest effects were benefits on actions of sick role behavior. Conclusions: Overall, these investigation provide very substantial empirical evidence supporting health belief model dimensions as important contributors to the explanation and prediction of sick role behavior among the type of health related behavior in pulmonary tuberculosis patients. Strategic intervention including health education, etc. based on health belief model showed clear advantage in improvement of behavioral change.

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Development of a TBM Advance Rate Model and Its Field Application Based on Full-Scale Shield TBM Tunneling Tests in 70 MPa of Artificial Rock Mass (70 MPa급 인공암반 내 실대형 쉴드TBM 굴진실험을 통한 굴진율 모델 및 활용방안 제안)

  • Kim, Jungjoo;Kim, Kyoungyul;Ryu, Heehwan;Hwan, Jung Ju;Hong, Sungyun;Jo, Seonah;Bae, Dusan
    • KEPCO Journal on Electric Power and Energy
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    • v.6 no.3
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    • pp.305-313
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    • 2020
  • The use of cable tunnels for electric power transmission as well as their construction in difficult conditions such as in subsea terrains and large overburden areas has increased. So, in order to efficiently operate the small diameter shield TBM (Tunnel Boring Machine), the estimation of advance rate and development of a design model is necessary. However, due to limited scope of survey and face mapping, it is very difficult to match the rock mass characteristics and TBM operational data in order to achieve their mutual relationships and to develop an advance rate model. Also, the working mechanism of previously utilized linear cutting machine is slightly different than the real excavation mechanism owing to the penetration of a number of disc cutters taking place at the same time in the rock mass in conjunction with rotation of the cutterhead. So, in order to suggest the advance rate and machine design models for small diameter TBMs, an EPB (Earth Pressure Balance) shield TBM having 3.54 m diameter cutterhead was manufactured and 19 cases of full-scale tunneling tests were performed each in 87.5 ㎥ volume of artificial rock mass. The relationships between advance rate and machine data were effectively analyzed by performing the tests in homogeneous rock mass with 70 MPa uniaxial compressive strength according to the TBM operational parameters such as thrust force and RPM of cutterhead. The utilization of the recorded penetration depth and torque values in the development of models is more accurate and realistic since they were derived through real excavation mechanism. The relationships between normal force on single disc cutter and penetration depth as well as between normal force and rolling force were suggested in this study. The prediction of advance rate and design of TBM can be performed in rock mass having 70 MPa strength using these relationships. An effort was made to improve the application of the developed model by applying the FPI (Field Penetration Index) concept which can overcome the limitation of 100% RQD (Rock Quality Designation) in artificial rock mass.