• Title/Summary/Keyword: Prediction risk

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A Study on the development of big data-based AI water meter freeze and burst risk information service (빅데이터 기반 인공지능 동파위험 정보서비스 개발을 위한 연구)

  • Lee, Jinuk;Kim, Sunghoon;Lee, Minjae
    • Korean Journal of Construction Engineering and Management
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    • v.24 no.3
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    • pp.42-51
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    • 2023
  • Freeze and burst water meter in winter causes many social costs, such as meter replacement cost, inability of water use, and secondary damage by freezing water. The government is making efforts to modernize local waterworks, and in particular, is promoting SWM(Smart Water Management) project nationwide. In this study suggests a new freeze risk notification information service based on the temperature by IoT sensor inside the water meter box rather than outside temperature. In addition, in order to overcome the quantitative and regional limitation of IoT temperature sensors installed nationwide, and AI based temperature prediction model was developed that predicts the temperature inside water meter boxes based on data acquired from IoT temperature sensors and other information. Through the prediction model optimization process, a nationwide water meter freezing risk information service was convinced.

Risk Stratification for Patients with Upper Gastrointestinal Bleeding (상부위장관 출혈 환자에서 위험의 계층화와 이에 따른 치료 전략)

  • Lee, Bong Eun
    • The Korean journal of helicobacter and upper gastrointestinal research
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    • v.18 no.4
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    • pp.225-230
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    • 2018
  • Upper gastrointestinal (GI) bleeding (UGIB) is the most common GI emergency, and it is associated with significant morbidity and mortality. Early identification of low-risk patients suitable for outpatient management has the potential to reduce unnecessary costs, and prompt triage of high-risk patients could allow appropriate intervention and minimize morbidity and mortality. Several risk-scoring systems have been developed to predict the outcomes of UGIB. As each scoring system measures different primary outcome variables, appropriate risk scores must be implemented in clinical practice. The Glasgow-Blatchford score (GBS) should be used to predict the need for interventions such as blood transfusion or endoscopic or surgical treatment. Patients with GBS ${\leq}1$ have a low likelihood of adverse outcomes and can be considered for early discharge. The Rockall score was externally validated and is widely used for prediction of mortality. The recently developed AIMS65 score is easy to calculate and was proposed to predict in-hospital mortality. The Forrest classification is based on endoscopic findings and can be used to stratify patients into high- and low-risk categories in terms of rebleeding and thus is useful in predicting the need for endoscopic hemostasis. Early risk stratification is critical in the management of UGIB and may improve patient outcome and reduce unnecessary health care costs through standardization of care.

Risk assessment of heavy metals in soil based on the geographic information system-Kriging technique in Anka, Nigeria

  • Johnbull, Onisoya;Abbassi, Bassim;Zytner, Richard G.
    • Environmental Engineering Research
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    • v.24 no.1
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    • pp.150-158
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    • 2019
  • Soil contaminated with heavy metals from artisanal gold mining in Anka Local Government Area in Northwestern Nigeria was investigated to evaluate the human health risk as a result of heavy metals. Measured concentration of heavy metals and exposure parameters were used to estimate human carcinogenic and non-carcinogenic risk. GIS-based Kriging method was utilized to create a prediction maps of human health risks and probability maps of heavy metals concentrations exceeding their threshold limits. Hazard index calculation showed that 21 out of 23 locations are posing non-cancer risk for children. Adults and children are at high cancer risk in all locations as the total cancer risk exceeded $1{\times}10^{-6}$ (the lower limit CTR value). Kriging model showed that only a very small area in Anka has a hazard index of less than unity and cumulative target risk of less than $1{\times}10^{-4}$, indicating a significant carcinogenic and non-carcinogenic risks for children. The probability of heavy metals to exceed their threshold concentrations around the study area was also found to be high.

Developing of Construction Project Risk Analysis Framework by Claim Payout and its Application

  • Kim, Ji-Myong;Park, Young Jun;Kim, Young-Jae;Yu, YeongJin
    • International conference on construction engineering and project management
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    • 2015.10a
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    • pp.192-194
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    • 2015
  • The growing size and complex process in construction project recently leads to increase risk and the losses as well. Even though researchers have identified the major risk indicators, there is lack of comprehensive and quantitative research for identifying the relationship between the risk indicators and economic losses associated with construction projects. To address this shortage of research, this study defines risk indicators and create a framework to assess the influence of economic losses from the indicators. An insurance company's claim payout record was accepted as the dependent variable to reflect the real economic losses. Based on the claims, we categorized the causes and results of accidents. To establish framework, built environment vulnerability indicators and geographical vulnerability indicators were employed as the risk indicators. A Pearson correlation analysis was adopted to validate the relationship with loss ratio and risk indicators. Consequently, this framework and its results may offer significant references for under writers of insurance companies and loss prevention activities.

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Forecasting the Volatility of KOSPI 200 Using Data Mining

  • Kim, Keon-Kyun;Cho, Mee-Hye;Park, Eun-Sik
    • Journal of the Korean Data and Information Science Society
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    • v.19 no.4
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    • pp.1305-1325
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    • 2008
  • As index option markets grow recently, many analysts and investors become interested in forecasting the volatility of KOSPI 200 Index to achieve portfolio's goal from the point of financial risk management and asset evaluation. To serve this purpose, we introduce NN and SVM integrated with other financial series models such as GARCH, EGARCH, and EWMA. Moreover, according to the empirical test, Integrating NN with GARCH or EWMA models improves prediction power in terms of the precision and the direction of the volatility of KOSPI 200 index. However, integrating SVM with financial series models doesn't improve greatly the prediction power. In summary, SVM-EGARCH was the best in terms of predicting the direction of the volatility and NN-GARCH was the best in terms of the prediction precision. We conclude with advantages of the integration process and the need for integrating models to enhance the prediction power.

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Enhance Health Risks Prediction Mechanism in the Cloud Using RT-TKRIBC Technique

  • Konduru, Venkateswara Raju;Bharamgoudra, Manjula R
    • Journal of information and communication convergence engineering
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    • v.19 no.3
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    • pp.166-174
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    • 2021
  • A large volume of patient data is generated from various devices used in healthcare applications. With increase in the volume of data generated in the healthcare industry, more wellness monitoring is required. A cloud-enabled analysis of healthcare data that predicts patient risk factors is required. Machine learning techniques have been developed to address these medical care problems. A novel technique called the radix-trie-based Tanimoto kernel regressive infomax boost classification (RT-TKRIBC) technique is introduced to analyze the heterogeneous health data in the cloud to predict the health risks and send alerts. The infomax boost ensemble technique improves the prediction accuracy by finding the maximum mutual information, thereby minimizing the mean square error. The performance evaluation of the proposed RT-TKRIBC technique is realized through extensive simulations in the cloud environment, which provides better prediction accuracy and less prediction time than those provided by the state-of-the-art methods.

Generating and Validating Synthetic Training Data for Predicting Bankruptcy of Individual Businesses

  • Hong, Dong-Suk;Baik, Cheol
    • Journal of information and communication convergence engineering
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    • v.19 no.4
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    • pp.228-233
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    • 2021
  • In this study, we analyze the credit information (loan, delinquency information, etc.) of individual business owners to generate voluminous training data to establish a bankruptcy prediction model through a partial synthetic training technique. Furthermore, we evaluate the prediction performance of the newly generated data compared to the actual data. When using conditional tabular generative adversarial networks (CTGAN)-based training data generated by the experimental results (a logistic regression task), the recall is improved by 1.75 times compared to that obtained using the actual data. The probability that both the actual and generated data are sampled over an identical distribution is verified to be much higher than 80%. Providing artificial intelligence training data through data synthesis in the fields of credit rating and default risk prediction of individual businesses, which have not been relatively active in research, promotes further in-depth research efforts focused on utilizing such methods.

Rock Slope Failure Analysis and Landslide Risk Map by Using GIS (GIS를 이용한 암반사면 파괴분석과 산사태 위험도)

  • Kwon, Hye-Jin;Kim, Gyo-Won
    • Journal of the Korean Geotechnical Society
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    • v.30 no.12
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    • pp.15-25
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    • 2014
  • In this study, types of rock slope failure are analyzed by considering both joint characteristics investigated on previous landslide regions located at northern part of Mt. Jiri and geographic features of natural slopes deduced from GIS. The landslide prediction map was produced by superposing the frequency ratio layers for the six geographic features including elevation, slope aspect, slope angle, shaded relief, curvature and stream distance, and then the landslide risk map was deduced by combination of the prediction map and the damage map obtained by taking account of humanity factors such as roads and buildings in the study area. According to analysis on geographic features for previous landslide regions, the landslides occurred as following rate: 88% at 330~710 m in elevation, 77.7% at $90{\sim}270^{\circ}$ in slope aspect, 93.9% at $10{\sim}40^{\circ}$ in slope angle, 82.78% at grade3~7 in shaded relief, 86.28% at -5~+5 in curvature, and 82.92% within 400m in stream distance. Approximately 75% of the landslide regions belongs to the region of 'high' or 'very high' grade in the prediction map, and 13.27% of the study area is exposed to 'high risk' of landslide.

Prediction of Prognosis in Glioblastoma Using Radiomics Features of Dynamic Contrast-Enhanced MRI

  • Elena Pak;Kyu Sung Choi;Seung Hong Choi;Chul-Kee Park;Tae Min Kim;Sung-Hye Park;Joo Ho Lee;Soon-Tae Lee;Inpyeong Hwang;Roh-Eul Yoo;Koung Mi Kang;Tae Jin Yun;Ji-Hoon Kim;Chul-Ho Sohn
    • Korean Journal of Radiology
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    • v.22 no.9
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    • pp.1514-1524
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    • 2021
  • Objective: To develop a radiomics risk score based on dynamic contrast-enhanced (DCE) MRI for prognosis prediction in patients with glioblastoma. Materials and Methods: One hundred and fifty patients (92 male [61.3%]; mean age ± standard deviation, 60.5 ± 13.5 years) with glioblastoma who underwent preoperative MRI were enrolled in the study. Six hundred and forty-two radiomic features were extracted from volume transfer constant (Ktrans), fractional volume of vascular plasma space (Vp), and fractional volume of extravascular extracellular space (Ve) maps of DCE MRI, wherein the regions of interest were based on both T1-weighted contrast-enhancing areas and non-enhancing T2 hyperintense areas. Using feature selection algorithms, salient radiomic features were selected from the 642 features. Next, a radiomics risk score was developed using a weighted combination of the selected features in the discovery set (n = 105); the risk score was validated in the validation set (n = 45) by investigating the difference in prognosis between the "radiomics risk score" groups. Finally, multivariable Cox regression analysis for progression-free survival was performed using the radiomics risk score and clinical variables as covariates. Results: 16 radiomic features obtained from non-enhancing T2 hyperintense areas were selected among the 642 features identified. The radiomics risk score was used to stratify high- and low-risk groups in both the discovery and validation sets (both p < 0.001 by the log-rank test). The radiomics risk score and presence of isocitrate dehydrogenase (IDH) mutation showed independent associations with progression-free survival in opposite directions (hazard ratio, 3.56; p = 0.004 and hazard ratio, 0.34; p = 0.022, respectively). Conclusion: We developed and validated the "radiomics risk score" from the features of DCE MRI based on non-enhancing T2 hyperintense areas for risk stratification of patients with glioblastoma. It was associated with progression-free survival independently of IDH mutation status.

Development of Intelligent Credit Rating System using Support Vector Machines (Support Vector Machine을 이용한 지능형 신용평가시스템 개발)

  • Kim Kyoung-jae
    • Journal of the Korea Institute of Information and Communication Engineering
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    • v.9 no.7
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    • pp.1569-1574
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    • 2005
  • In this paper, I propose an intelligent credit rating system using a bankruptcy prediction model based on support vector machines (SVMs). SVMs are promising methods because they use a risk function consisting of the empirical error and a regularized term which is derived from the structural risk minimization principle. This study examines the feasibility of applying SVM in Predicting corporate bankruptcies by comparing it with other data mining techniques. In addition. this study presents architecture and prototype of intelligeht credit rating systems based on SVM models.