• Title/Summary/Keyword: Prediction performance

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Development of Simulation for Estimating Growth Changes of Locally Managed European Beech Forests in the Eifel Region of Germany (독일 아이펠의 지역적 관리에 따른 유럽너도밤나무 숲의 생장변화 추정을 위한 시뮬레이션 개발)

  • Jae-gyun Byun;Martina Ross-Nickoll;Richard Ottermanns
    • Journal of the Korea Society for Simulation
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    • v.33 no.1
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    • pp.1-17
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    • 2024
  • Forest management is known to beneficially influence stand structure and wood production, yet quantitative understanding as well as an illustrative depiction of the effects of different management approaches on tree growth and stand dynamics are still scarce. Long-term management of beech forests must balance public interests with ecological aspects. Efficient forest management requires the reliable prediction of tree growth change. We aimed to develop a novel hybrid simulation approach, which realistically simulates short- as well as long-term effects of different forest management regimes commonly applied, but not limited, to German low mountain ranges, including near-natural forest management based on single-tree selection harvesting. The model basically consists of three modules for (a) natural seedling regeneration, (b) mortality adjustment, and (c) tree growth simulation. In our approach, an existing validated growth model was used to calculate single year tree growth, and expanded on by including in a newly developed simulation process using calibrated modules based on practical experience in forest management and advice from the local forest. We included the following different beech forest-management scenarios that are representative for German low mountain ranges to our simulation tool: (1) plantation, (2) continuous cover forestry, and (3) reserved forest. The simulation results show a robust consistency with expert knowledge as well as a great comparability with mid-term monitoring data, indicating a strong model performance. We successfully developed a hybrid simulation that realistically reflects different management strategies and tree growth in low mountain range. This study represents a basis for a new model calibration method, which has translational potential for further studies to develop reliable tailor-made models adjusted to local situations in beech forest management.

Analytical Evaluation of PPG Blood Glucose Monitoring System - researcher clinical trial (PPG 혈당 모니터링 시스템의 분석적 평가 - 연구자 임상)

  • Cheol-Gu Park;Sang-Ki Choi;Seong-Geun Jo;Kwon-Min Kim
    • Journal of Digital Convergence
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    • v.21 no.3
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    • pp.33-39
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    • 2023
  • This study is a performance evaluation of a blood sugar monitoring system that combines a PPG sensor, which is an evaluation device for blood glucose monitoring, and a DNN algorithm when monitoring capillary blood glucose. The study is a researcher-led clinical trial conducted on participants from September 2023 to November 2023. PPG-BGMS compared predicted blood sugar levels for evaluation using 1-minute heart rate and heart rate variability information and the DNN prediction algorithm with capillary blood glucose levels measured with a blood glucose meter of the standard personal blood sugar management system. Of the 100 participants, 50 had type 2 diabetes (T2DM), and the average age was 67 years (range, 28 to 89 years). It was found that 100% of the predicted blood sugar level of PPG-BGMS was distributed in the A+B area of the Clarke error grid and Parker(Consensus) error grid. The MARD value of PPG-BGMS predicted blood glucose is 5.3 ± 4.0%. Consequentially, the non-blood-based PPG-BGMS was found to be non-inferior to the instantaneous blood sugar level of the clinical standard blood-based personal blood glucose measurement system.

A Service Life Prediction for Unsound Concrete Under Carbonation Through Probability of Durable Failure (탄산화에 노출된 콘크리트 취약부의 확률론적 내구수명 평가)

  • Kwon, Seung Jun;Park, Sang Soon;Nam, Sang Hyeok;Lho, Byeong Cheol
    • Journal of the Korea institute for structural maintenance and inspection
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    • v.12 no.2
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    • pp.49-58
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    • 2008
  • Generally, steel corrosion occurs in concrete structures due to carbonation in down-town area and underground site and it propagates to degradation of structural performance. In general diagnosis and inspection, only carbonation depth in sound concrete is evaluated but unsound concrete such as joint and cracked area may occur easily in a concrete member due to construction process. In this study, field survey of carbonation for RC columns in down-town area is performed and carbonation depth in joint and cracked concrete including sound area is measured. Probability of durable failure with time is calculated through probability variables such as concrete cover depth and carbonation depth which are obtained from field survey. In addition, service life of the structures is predicted based on the intended probability of durable failure in domestic concrete specification. It is evaluated that in a RC column, various service life is predicted due to local condition and it is rapidly decreased with insufficient cover depth and growth of crack width. It is also evaluated that obtaining cover depth and quality of concrete is very important because the probability of durable failure is closely related with C.O.V. of cover depth.

Clinical implementation of PerFRACTIONTM for pre-treatment patient-specific quality assurance

  • Sang-Won Kang;Boram Lee;Changhoon Song;Keun-Yong Eeom;Bum-Sup Jang;In Ah Kim;Jae-Sung Kim;Jin-Beom Chung;Seonghee Kang;Woong Cho;Dong-Suk Shin;Jin-Young Kim;Minsoo Chun
    • Journal of the Korean Physical Society
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    • v.80
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    • pp.516-525
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    • 2022
  • This study is to assess the clinical use of commercial PerFRACTIONTM for patient-specific quality assurance of volumetric-modulated arc therapy. Forty-six pretreatment verification plans for patients treated using a TrueBeam STx linear accelerator for lesions in various treatment sites such as brain, head and neck (H&N), prostate, and lung were included in this study. All pretreatment verification plans were generated using the Eclipse treatment planning system (TPS). Dose distributions obtained from electronic portal imaging device (EPID), ArcCHECKTM, and two-dimensional (2D)/three-dimensional (3D) PerFRACTIONTM were then compared with the dose distribution calculated from the Eclipse TPS. In addition, the correlation between the plan complexity (the modulation complexity score and the leaf travel modulation complexity score) and the gamma passing rates (GPRs) of each quality assurance (QA) system was evaluated by calculating Spearman's rank correlation coefficient (rs) with the corresponding p-values. The gamma passing rates of 46 patients analyzed with the 2D/3D PerFRACTIONTM using the 2%/2 mm and 3%/3 mm criteria showed almost similar trends to those analyzed with the Portal dose imaging prediction (PDIP) and ArcCHECKTM except for those analyzed with ArcCHECKTM using the 2%/2 mm criterion. Most of weak or moderate correlations between GPRs and plan complexity were observed for all QA systems. The trend of mean rs between GPRs using PDIP and 2D/3D PerFRACTIONTM for both criteria and plan complexity indices as in the GPRs analysis was significantly similar for brain, prostate, and lung cases with lower complexity compared to H&N case. Furthermore, the trend of mean rs for 2D/3D PerFRACTIONTM for H&N case with high complexity was similar to that of ArcCHECKTM and slightly lower correlation was observed than that of PDIP. This work showed that the performance of 2D/3D PerFRACTIONTM for pretreatment patient-specific QA was almost comparable to that of PDIP, although there was small difference from ArcCHECKTM for some cases. Thus, we found that the PerFRACTIONTM is a suitable QA system for pretreatment patient-specific QA in a variety of treatment sites.

A Study on Artificial Intelligence Models for Predicting the Causes of Chemical Accidents Using Chemical Accident Status and Case Data (화학물질 사고 현황 및 사례 데이터를 이용한 인공지능 사고 원인 예측 모델에 관한 연구)

  • KyungHyun Lee;RackJune Baek;Hyeseong Jung;WooSu Kim;HeeJeong Choi
    • The Journal of the Convergence on Culture Technology
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    • v.10 no.5
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    • pp.725-733
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    • 2024
  • This study aims to develop an artificial intelligence-based model for predicting the causes of chemical accidents, utilizing data on 865 chemical accident situations and cases provided by the Chemical Safety Agency under the Ministry of Environment from January 2014 to January 2024. The research involved training the data using six artificial intelligence models and compared evaluation metrics such as accuracy, precision, recall, and F1 score. Based on 356 chemical accident cases from 2020 to 2024, additional training data sets were applied using chemical accident cause investigations and similar accident prevention measures suggested by the Chemical Safety Agency from 2021 to 2022. Through this process, the Multi-Layer Perceptron (MLP) model showed an accuracy of 0.6590 and a precision of 0.6821. the Multi-Layer Perceptron (MLP) model showed an accuracy of 0.6590 and a precision of 0.6821. The Logistic Regression model improved its accuracy from 0.6647 to 0.7778 and its precision from 0.6790 to 0.7992, confirming that the Logistic Regression model is the most effective for predicting the causes of chemical accidents.

Development of Prediction Model for XRD Mineral Composition Using Machine Learning (기계학습을 활용한 XRD 광물 조성 예측 모델 개발)

  • Park Sun Young;Lee Kyungbook;Choi Jiyoung;Park Ju Young
    • Korean Journal of Mineralogy and Petrology
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    • v.37 no.2
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    • pp.23-34
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    • 2024
  • It is essential to know the mineral composition of core samples to assess the possibility of gas hydrate (GH) in sediments. During the exploration of gas hydrates (GH), mineral composition values were obtained from each core sample collected in the Ulleung Basin using X-ray diffraction (XRD). Based on this data, machine learning was performed with 3100 input values representing XRD peak intensities and 12 output values representing mineral compositions. The 488 data points were divided into 307 training samples, 132 validation samples, and 49 test samples. The random forest (RF) algorithm was utilized to obtain results. The machine learning results, compared with expert-predicted mineral compositions, revealed a Mean Absolute Error (MAE) of 1.35%. To enhance the performance of the developed model, principal component analysis (PCA) was employed to extract the key features of XRD peaks, reducing the dimensionality of input data. Subsequent machine learning with the refined data resulted in a decreased MAE, reaching a maximum of 1.23%. Additionally, the efficiency of the learning process improved over time, as confirmed from a temporal perspective.

A Study on Risk Parity Asset Allocation Model with XGBoos (XGBoost를 활용한 리스크패리티 자산배분 모형에 관한 연구)

  • Kim, Younghoon;Choi, HeungSik;Kim, SunWoong
    • Journal of Intelligence and Information Systems
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    • v.26 no.1
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    • pp.135-149
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    • 2020
  • Artificial intelligences are changing world. Financial market is also not an exception. Robo-Advisor is actively being developed, making up the weakness of traditional asset allocation methods and replacing the parts that are difficult for the traditional methods. It makes automated investment decisions with artificial intelligence algorithms and is used with various asset allocation models such as mean-variance model, Black-Litterman model and risk parity model. Risk parity model is a typical risk-based asset allocation model which is focused on the volatility of assets. It avoids investment risk structurally. So it has stability in the management of large size fund and it has been widely used in financial field. XGBoost model is a parallel tree-boosting method. It is an optimized gradient boosting model designed to be highly efficient and flexible. It not only makes billions of examples in limited memory environments but is also very fast to learn compared to traditional boosting methods. It is frequently used in various fields of data analysis and has a lot of advantages. So in this study, we propose a new asset allocation model that combines risk parity model and XGBoost machine learning model. This model uses XGBoost to predict the risk of assets and applies the predictive risk to the process of covariance estimation. There are estimated errors between the estimation period and the actual investment period because the optimized asset allocation model estimates the proportion of investments based on historical data. these estimated errors adversely affect the optimized portfolio performance. This study aims to improve the stability and portfolio performance of the model by predicting the volatility of the next investment period and reducing estimated errors of optimized asset allocation model. As a result, it narrows the gap between theory and practice and proposes a more advanced asset allocation model. In this study, we used the Korean stock market price data for a total of 17 years from 2003 to 2019 for the empirical test of the suggested model. The data sets are specifically composed of energy, finance, IT, industrial, material, telecommunication, utility, consumer, health care and staple sectors. We accumulated the value of prediction using moving-window method by 1,000 in-sample and 20 out-of-sample, so we produced a total of 154 rebalancing back-testing results. We analyzed portfolio performance in terms of cumulative rate of return and got a lot of sample data because of long period results. Comparing with traditional risk parity model, this experiment recorded improvements in both cumulative yield and reduction of estimated errors. The total cumulative return is 45.748%, about 5% higher than that of risk parity model and also the estimated errors are reduced in 9 out of 10 industry sectors. The reduction of estimated errors increases stability of the model and makes it easy to apply in practical investment. The results of the experiment showed improvement of portfolio performance by reducing the estimated errors of the optimized asset allocation model. Many financial models and asset allocation models are limited in practical investment because of the most fundamental question of whether the past characteristics of assets will continue into the future in the changing financial market. However, this study not only takes advantage of traditional asset allocation models, but also supplements the limitations of traditional methods and increases stability by predicting the risks of assets with the latest algorithm. There are various studies on parametric estimation methods to reduce the estimated errors in the portfolio optimization. We also suggested a new method to reduce estimated errors in optimized asset allocation model using machine learning. So this study is meaningful in that it proposes an advanced artificial intelligence asset allocation model for the fast-developing financial markets.

A Study on People Counting in Public Metro Service using Hybrid CNN-LSTM Algorithm (Hybrid CNN-LSTM 알고리즘을 활용한 도시철도 내 피플 카운팅 연구)

  • Choi, Ji-Hye;Kim, Min-Seung;Lee, Chan-Ho;Choi, Jung-Hwan;Lee, Jeong-Hee;Sung, Tae-Eung
    • Journal of Intelligence and Information Systems
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    • v.26 no.2
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    • pp.131-145
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    • 2020
  • In line with the trend of industrial innovation, IoT technology utilized in a variety of fields is emerging as a key element in creation of new business models and the provision of user-friendly services through the combination of big data. The accumulated data from devices with the Internet-of-Things (IoT) is being used in many ways to build a convenience-based smart system as it can provide customized intelligent systems through user environment and pattern analysis. Recently, it has been applied to innovation in the public domain and has been using it for smart city and smart transportation, such as solving traffic and crime problems using CCTV. In particular, it is necessary to comprehensively consider the easiness of securing real-time service data and the stability of security when planning underground services or establishing movement amount control information system to enhance citizens' or commuters' convenience in circumstances with the congestion of public transportation such as subways, urban railways, etc. However, previous studies that utilize image data have limitations in reducing the performance of object detection under private issue and abnormal conditions. The IoT device-based sensor data used in this study is free from private issue because it does not require identification for individuals, and can be effectively utilized to build intelligent public services for unspecified people. Especially, sensor data stored by the IoT device need not be identified to an individual, and can be effectively utilized for constructing intelligent public services for many and unspecified people as data free form private issue. We utilize the IoT-based infrared sensor devices for an intelligent pedestrian tracking system in metro service which many people use on a daily basis and temperature data measured by sensors are therein transmitted in real time. The experimental environment for collecting data detected in real time from sensors was established for the equally-spaced midpoints of 4×4 upper parts in the ceiling of subway entrances where the actual movement amount of passengers is high, and it measured the temperature change for objects entering and leaving the detection spots. The measured data have gone through a preprocessing in which the reference values for 16 different areas are set and the difference values between the temperatures in 16 distinct areas and their reference values per unit of time are calculated. This corresponds to the methodology that maximizes movement within the detection area. In addition, the size of the data was increased by 10 times in order to more sensitively reflect the difference in temperature by area. For example, if the temperature data collected from the sensor at a given time were 28.5℃, the data analysis was conducted by changing the value to 285. As above, the data collected from sensors have the characteristics of time series data and image data with 4×4 resolution. Reflecting the characteristics of the measured, preprocessed data, we finally propose a hybrid algorithm that combines CNN in superior performance for image classification and LSTM, especially suitable for analyzing time series data, as referred to CNN-LSTM (Convolutional Neural Network-Long Short Term Memory). In the study, the CNN-LSTM algorithm is used to predict the number of passing persons in one of 4×4 detection areas. We verified the validation of the proposed model by taking performance comparison with other artificial intelligence algorithms such as Multi-Layer Perceptron (MLP), Long Short Term Memory (LSTM) and RNN-LSTM (Recurrent Neural Network-Long Short Term Memory). As a result of the experiment, proposed CNN-LSTM hybrid model compared to MLP, LSTM and RNN-LSTM has the best predictive performance. By utilizing the proposed devices and models, it is expected various metro services will be provided with no illegal issue about the personal information such as real-time monitoring of public transport facilities and emergency situation response services on the basis of congestion. However, the data have been collected by selecting one side of the entrances as the subject of analysis, and the data collected for a short period of time have been applied to the prediction. There exists the limitation that the verification of application in other environments needs to be carried out. In the future, it is expected that more reliability will be provided for the proposed model if experimental data is sufficiently collected in various environments or if learning data is further configured by measuring data in other sensors.

Development of a Window Program for Searching CpG Island (CpG Island 검색용 윈도우 프로그램 개발)

  • Kim, Ki-Bong
    • Journal of Life Science
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    • v.18 no.8
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    • pp.1132-1139
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    • 2008
  • A CpG island is a short stretch of DNA in which the frequency of the CG dinucleotide is higher than other regions. CpG islands are present in the promoters and exonic regions of approximately $30{\sim}60$% of mammalian genes so they are useful markers for genes in organisms containing 5-methylcytosine in their genomes. Recent evidence supports the notion that the hypermethylation of CpG island, by silencing tumor suppressor genes, plays a major causal role in cancer, which has been described in almost every tumor types. In this respect, CpG island search by computational methods is very helpful for cancer research and computational promoter and gene predictions. I therefore developed a window program (called CpGi) on the basis of CpG island criteria defined by D. Takai and P. A. Jones. The program 'CpGi' was implemented in Visual C++ 6.0 and can determine the locations of CpG islands using diverse parameters (%GC, Obs (CpG)/Exp (CpG), window size, step size, gap value, # of CpG, length) specified by user. The analysis result of CpGi provides a graphical map of CpG islands and G+C% plot, where more detailed information on CpG island can be obtained through pop-up window. Two human contigs, i.e. AP00524 (from chromosome 22) and NT_029490.3 (from chromosome 21), were used to compare the performance of CpGi and two other public programs for the accuracy of search results. The two other programs used in the performance comparison are Emboss-CpGPlot and CpG Island Searcher that are web-based public CpG island search programs. The comparison result showed that CpGi is on a level with or outperforms Emboss-CpGPlot and CpG Island Searcher. Having a simple and easy-to-use user interface, CpGi would be a very useful tool for genome analysis and CpG island research. To obtain a copy of CpGi for academic use only, contact corresponding author.

Prediction Model of Exercise Behaviors in Patients with Arthritis (by Pender's revised Health Promotion Model) (관절염 환자의 운동행위 예측모형 (Pender의 재개정된 건강증진 모형에 의한))

  • Lim, Nan-Young;Suh, Gil-Hee
    • Journal of muscle and joint health
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    • v.8 no.1
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    • pp.122-140
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    • 2001
  • The aims of this study were to understand and to predict the determinent factors affecting the exercise behaviors and physical fitness by testing the Pender's revised health promotion model, and to help the patients with rheumatoid arthritis and osteoarthritis perform the continous exercise program, and to help them maximize the physical effect such as muscle strength, endurance, and functional status and mental effects including self efficacy and quality of life, and improve the physical and mental well being, and to provide a basis for the nursing intervention strategies. Of the selected variables in this study, the endogenous variables included the physical fitness, exercise score, exercise participation, perceived benefits of action, perceived barriers of action to exercise, activity-related affect(depression) and perceived self-efficacy, interpersonal influences(family support), situational factors(duration of arthritis, fatigue) and the exogenous variables included personal sociocultural factor(education level), personal biologic factor(body mass index), personal psychologic factor(perceived health status) and prior related behavior factors(previous participation in exercise, life-style). We analyzed the clinical records of 208 patients with rheumatoid arthritis and degenerative arthritis who visited the outpatient clinics at H university hospital in Seoul. Data were composed of self reported qustionnaire and good of fitness score which were obtained by padalling the ergometer of bicycle for 9 minutes. SPSS Win 8.0 and Window LISREL 8.12a were used for statistical analysis. Of 75 hypothetical paths that influence on physical fitness, exercise participation, exercise score, perceived benefits of action, perceived barriers of action to exercise, activity-related affect(depression) and perceived self-efficacy, interpersonal influences(family support), situational factors(duration of arthritis, fatigue), 40 were supported. The physical fitness was directly influenced by life-style, perceived health status, education level, family support, fatigue, which explained 12% of physical fitness. The exercise participation were directly influenced by life-style, education level, past exercise behavior, perceived benefits of action, perceived barriers of action, depression and duration of arthritis, which explained 47% of exercise participation. Exercise score were directly affected by perceived self efficacy. BMI, life-style, past exercise behavior, perceived benefits of action, family support, perceived health status. perceived barriers of action, and fatigue, which explained 70%. Perceived benefits of action was directly influenced by BMI, life-style, which explained 39%. Perceived barriers of action were directly influeced by past exercise behavior, perceived health status, which explained 7%. Perceived self efficacy were directly influeced by level of education, perceived health status, life-style, which explained 57%. Depression were directly influeced by past exercise behavior, BMI, life-style, which explained 27%. Family support were directly influeced by life-style, perceived health status, which explained 29%. Fatigue were directly influeced by BMI, life-style, perceived health status. which explained 41%. Duration of arthritis were directly influeced by life-style, past exercise behavior, BMI, which explained 6%. In conclusion, important variables for physical fitness were life-style, and variable affecting exercise participation were life-style. Perceived self-efficacy of exercise was a significant predictor of exercise score. BMI, Life-style, perceived benefits of action, family support, past exercise behavior showed direct effects on perceived self-efficacy. Therefore, disease related factor should be minimized for physical performance and well being in nursing intervention for patients with rheumatoid arthritis, and plans to promote and continue exercise should be seeked to reduce disability. In addition, Exercise program should be planned and performed by the exact evaluation of exercise according to the ability of the patients and the contents to improve the importance of exercise and self efficacy in self control program, dedicated educational program should be involved. This study suggest that the methods to reduce the disease related factors, the importance of daily life-style, recognition of benefit of exercise, and educational program to promote self efficacy should be considered in the exercise behavior promotion and nursing intervention for continous performance. The significance of this study is also thought to provide patients with chronic arthritis the specific data for maximal physical and mental well being through exercise, chronic therapeutic procedure, daily adaptation and confrontation in nursing intervention.

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