• Title/Summary/Keyword: Prediction performance

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Quantification of Protein and Amylose Contents by Near Infrared Reflectance Spectroscopy in Aroma Rice (근적외선 분광분석법을 이용한 향미벼의 아밀로스 및 단백질 정량분석)

  • Kim, Jeong-Soon;Song, Mi-Hee;Choi, Jae-Eul;Lee, Hee-Bong;Ahn, Sang-Nag
    • Korean Journal of Food Science and Technology
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    • v.40 no.6
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    • pp.603-610
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    • 2008
  • The principal objective of current study was to evaluate the potential of near infrared reflectance spectroscopy (NIRS) as a non-destructive method for the prediction of the amylose and protein contents of un-hulled and brown rice in broad-based calibration models. The average amylose and protein content of 75 rice accessions were 20.3% and 7.1%, respectively. Additionally, the range of amylose and protein content were 16.6-24.5% and 3.8-9.3%, respectively. In total, 79 rice germplasms representing a wide range of chemical characteristics, variable physical properties, and origins were scanned via NIRS for calibration and validation equations. The un-hulled and brown rice samples evidenced distinctly different patterns in a wavelength range from 1,440 nm to 2,400 nm in the original NIR spectra. The optimal performance calibration model could be obtained by MPLS (modified partial least squares) using the first derivative method (1:4:4:1) for un-hulled rice and the second derivative method (2:4:4:1) for brown rice. The correlation coefficients $(r^2)$ and standard error of calibration (SEC) of protein and amylose contents for the un-hulled rice were 0.86, 2.48, and 0.84, 1.13, respectively. The $r^2$ and SEC of protein and amylose content for brown rice were 0.95, 1.09 and 0.94, 0.42, respectively. The results of this study suggest that the NIRS technique could be utilized as a routine procedure for the quantification of protein and amylose contents in large accessions of un-hulled rice germplasms.

Simulation and model validation of Biomass Fast Pyrolysis in a fluidized bed reactor using CFD (전산유체역학(CFD)을 이용한 유동층반응기 내부의 목질계 바이오매스 급속 열분해 모델 비교 및 검증)

  • Ju, Young Min;Euh, Seung Hee;Oh, Kwang cheol;Lee, Kang Yol;Lee, Beom Goo;Kim, Dae Hyun
    • Journal of Energy Engineering
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    • v.24 no.4
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    • pp.200-210
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    • 2015
  • The modeling for fast pyrolysis of biomass in fluidized bed reactor has been developed for accurate prediction of bio-oil and gas products and for yield improvement. The purpose of this study is to analyze and to compare the CFD(Computational Fluid Dynamics) simulation results with the experimental data from the CFD simulation results with the experimental data from the reference(Mellin et al., 2014) for gas products generated during fast pyrolysis of biomass in fluidized bed reactor. CFD(ANSYS FLUENT v.15.0) was used for the simulation. Complex pyrolysis reaction scheme of biomass subcomponents was applied for the simulation of pyrolysis reaction. This pyrolysis reaction scheme was included reaction of cellulose, hemicellulose, lignin in detail, gas products obtained from pyrolysis were mainly $CO_2$, CO, $CH_4$, $H_2$, $C_2H_4$. The deviation between the simulation results from this study and experimental data from the reference was calculated about 3.7%p, 4.6%p, 3.9%p for $CH_4$, $H_2$, $C_2H_4$ respectively, whereas 9.6%p and 6.7%p for $CO_2$ and CO which are relatively high. Through this study, it is possible to predict gas products accurately by using CFD simulation approach. Moreover, this modeling approach should be developed to predict fluidized bed reactor performance and other gas product yields.

Bias Correction for GCM Long-term Prediction using Nonstationary Quantile Mapping (비정상성 분위사상법을 이용한 GCM 장기예측 편차보정)

  • Moon, Soojin;Kim, Jungjoong;Kang, Boosik
    • Journal of Korea Water Resources Association
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    • v.46 no.8
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    • pp.833-842
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    • 2013
  • The quantile mapping is utilized to reproduce reliable GCM(Global Climate Model) data by correct systematic biases included in the original data set. This scheme, in general, projects the Cumulative Distribution Function (CDF) of the underlying data set into the target CDF assuming that parameters of target distribution function is stationary. Therefore, the application of stationary quantile mapping for nonstationary long-term time series data of future precipitation scenario computed by GCM can show biased projection. In this research the Nonstationary Quantile Mapping (NSQM) scheme was suggested for bias correction of nonstationary long-term time series data. The proposed scheme uses the statistical parameters with nonstationary long-term trends. The Gamma distribution was assumed for the object and target probability distribution. As the climate change scenario, the 20C3M(baseline scenario) and SRES A2 scenario (projection scenario) of CGCM3.1/T63 model from CCCma (Canadian Centre for Climate modeling and analysis) were utilized. The precipitation data were collected from 10 rain gauge stations in the Han-river basin. In order to consider seasonal characteristics, the study was performed separately for the flood (June~October) and nonflood (November~May) seasons. The periods for baseline and projection scenario were set as 1973~2000 and 2011~2100, respectively. This study evaluated the performance of NSQM by experimenting various ways of setting parameters of target distribution. The projection scenarios were shown for 3 different periods of FF scenario (Foreseeable Future Scenario, 2011~2040 yr), MF scenario (Mid-term Future Scenario, 2041~2070 yr), LF scenario (Long-term Future Scenario, 2071~2100 yr). The trend test for the annual precipitation projection using NSQM shows 330.1 mm (25.2%), 564.5 mm (43.1%), and 634.3 mm (48.5%) increase for FF, MF, and LF scenarios, respectively. The application of stationary scheme shows overestimated projection for FF scenario and underestimated projection for LF scenario. This problem could be improved by applying nonstationary quantile mapping.

Development of KD- Propeller Series using a New Blade Section (새로운 날개단면을 이용한 KD-프로펠러 씨리즈 개발)

  • J.T. Lee;M.C. Kim;J.W. Ahn;H.C. Kim
    • Journal of the Society of Naval Architects of Korea
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    • v.28 no.2
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    • pp.52-68
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    • 1991
  • A new propeller series is developed using the newly developed blade section(KH18 section) which behaves better cavitation characteristics and higher lift-drag ratio at wide range of angle-of-attack. The pitch and camber distributions are disigned in order to have the same radial and chordwise loading distribution with the selected circumferentially averaged wake input. Since the geometries of the series propeller, such as chord length, thickness, skew and rate distribations, are selected by regression of the recent full scale propeller geometric data, the performance prediction of a propeller at preliminary design stage can be mure realistic. Number of blades of the series propellers is 4 and the expanded blade area ratios are 0.3, 0.45, 0.6 and 0.75. Mean pitch ratios are selected as 0.5, 0.65, 0.8, 0.75 and 1.1 for each expanded area ratio. The new propeller series is composed of 20 propellers and is named as KD(KRISO-DAEWOO) propeller series. Propeller open water tests are performed at the experimental towing tank, and the cavitation observation tests and fluctuating pressure measurements are carried out at the cavitation tunnel of KRISO. $B_{P}-\delta$ curves, which can be used to select the optimum propeller diameter at the preliminary design stage, are derived from a regression analysis of the propeller often water test results. The KD-cavitation chart is derived from the cavitation observation test results by choosing the local maximum lift coefficient and the local cavitation number as parameters. The caviy extent of a propeller can be predicted more accurately by using the KD-cavitation chart at a preliminary design stage, since it is derived from the results of the cavitation observation tests in the selected ship's wake, whereas the existing cavitation charts, such as the Burrill's cavitation chart, are derived from the test results in uniform flow.

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The NCAM Land-Atmosphere Modeling Package (LAMP) Version 1: Implementation and Evaluation (국가농림기상센터 지면대기모델링패키지(NCAM-LAMP) 버전 1: 구축 및 평가)

  • Lee, Seung-Jae;Song, Jiae;Kim, Yu-Jung
    • Korean Journal of Agricultural and Forest Meteorology
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    • v.18 no.4
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    • pp.307-319
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    • 2016
  • A Land-Atmosphere Modeling Package (LAMP) for supporting agricultural and forest management was developed at the National Center for AgroMeteorology (NCAM). The package is comprised of two components; one is the Weather Research and Forecasting modeling system (WRF) coupled with Noah-Multiparameterization options (Noah-MP) Land Surface Model (LSM) and the other is an offline one-dimensional LSM. The objective of this paper is to briefly describe the two components of the NCAM-LAMP and to evaluate their initial performance. The coupled WRF/Noah-MP system is configured with a parent domain over East Asia and three nested domains with a finest horizontal grid size of 810 m. The innermost domain covers two Gwangneung deciduous and coniferous KoFlux sites (GDK and GCK). The model is integrated for about 8 days with the initial and boundary conditions taken from the National Centers for Environmental Prediction (NCEP) Final Analysis (FNL) data. The verification variables are 2-m air temperature, 10-m wind, 2-m humidity, and surface precipitation for the WRF/Noah-MP coupled system. Skill scores are calculated for each domain and two dynamic vegetation options using the difference between the observed data from the Korea Meteorological Administration (KMA) and the simulated data from the WRF/Noah-MP coupled system. The accuracy of precipitation simulation is examined using a contingency table that is made up of the Probability of Detection (POD) and the Equitable Threat Score (ETS). The standalone LSM simulation is conducted for one year with the original settings and is compared with the KoFlux site observation for net radiation, sensible heat flux, latent heat flux, and soil moisture variables. According to results, the innermost domain (810 m resolution) among all domains showed the minimum root mean square error for 2-m air temperature, 10-m wind, and 2-m humidity. Turning on the dynamic vegetation had a tendency of reducing 10-m wind simulation errors in all domains. The first nested domain (7,290 m resolution) showed the highest precipitation score, but showed little advantage compared with using the dynamic vegetation. On the other hand, the offline one-dimensional Noah-MP LSM simulation captured the site observed pattern and magnitude of radiative fluxes and soil moisture, and it left room for further improvement through supplementing the model input of leaf area index and finding a proper combination of model physics.

Factors Predicting the Development of Radiation Pneumonitis in the Patients Receiving Radiation Therapy for Lung Cancer (방사선 치료를 시행 받은 폐암 환자에서 방사선 폐렴의 발생에 관한 예측 인자)

  • An, Jin Yong;Lee, Yun Sun;Kwon, Sun Jung;Park, Hee Sun;Jung, Sung Soo;Kim, Jin whan;Kim, Ju Ock;Jo, Moon Jun;Kim, Sun Young
    • Tuberculosis and Respiratory Diseases
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    • v.56 no.1
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    • pp.40-50
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    • 2004
  • Background : Radiation pneumonitis(RP) is the major serious complication of thoracic irradiation treatment. In this study, we attempted to retrospectively evaluate the long-term prognosis of patients who experienced acute RP and to identify factor that might allow prediction of RP. Methods : Of the 114 lung cancer patients who underwent thoracic radiotherapy between December 2000 and December 2002, We performed analysis using a database of 90 patients who were capable of being evaluated. Results : Of the 44 patients(48.9%) who experienced clinical RP in this study, the RP was mild in 33(36.6%) and severe in 11(12.3%). All of severe RP were treated with corticosteroids. The median starting corticosteroids dose was 34 mg(30~40) and median treatment duration was 68 days(8~97). The median survival time of the 11 patients who experienced severe RP was significantly poorer than the mild RP group. (p=0.046) The higher total radiation dose(${\geq}60Gy$) was significantly associated with developing in RP.(p=0.001) The incidence of RP did not correlate with any of the ECOG performance, pulmonary function test, age, cell type, history of smoking, radiotherapy combined with chemotherapy, once-daily radiotherapy dose fraction. Also, serum albumin level, uric acid level at onset of RP did not influence the risk of severe RP in our study. Conclusion : Only the higher total radiation dose(${\geq}60Gy$) was a significant risk factor predictive of RP. Also severe RP was an adverse prognostic factor.

Research about feature selection that use heuristic function (휴리스틱 함수를 이용한 feature selection에 관한 연구)

  • Hong, Seok-Mi;Jung, Kyung-Sook;Chung, Tae-Choong
    • The KIPS Transactions:PartB
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    • v.10B no.3
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    • pp.281-286
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    • 2003
  • A large number of features are collected for problem solving in real life, but to utilize ail the features collected would be difficult. It is not so easy to collect of correct data about all features. In case it takes advantage of all collected data to learn, complicated learning model is created and good performance result can't get. Also exist interrelationships or hierarchical relations among the features. We can reduce feature's number analyzing relation among the features using heuristic knowledge or statistical method. Heuristic technique refers to learning through repetitive trial and errors and experience. Experts can approach to relevant problem domain through opinion collection process by experience. These properties can be utilized to reduce the number of feature used in learning. Experts generate a new feature (highly abstract) using raw data. This paper describes machine learning model that reduce the number of features used in learning using heuristic function and use abstracted feature by neural network's input value. We have applied this model to the win/lose prediction in pro-baseball games. The result shows the model mixing two techniques not only reduces the complexity of the neural network model but also significantly improves the classification accuracy than when neural network and heuristic model are used separately.

Shipping Industry Support Plan based on Research of Factors Affecting on the Freight Rate of Bulk Carriers by Sizes (부정기선 운임변동성 영향 요인 분석에 따른 우리나라 해운정책 지원 방안)

  • Cheon, Min-Soo;Mun, Ae-ri;Kim, Seog-Soo
    • Journal of Korea Port Economic Association
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    • v.36 no.4
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    • pp.17-30
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    • 2020
  • In the shipping industry, it is essential to engage in the preemptive prediction of freight rate volatility through market monitoring. Considering that freight rates have already started to fall, the loss of shipping companies will soon be uncontrollable. Therefore, in this study, factors affecting the freight rates of bulk carriers, which have relatively large freight rate volatility as compared to container freight rates, were quantified and analyzed. In doing so, we intended to contribute to future shipping market monitoring. We performed an analysis using a vector error correction model and estimated the influence of six independent variables on the charter rates of bulk carriers by Handy Size, Supramax, Panamax, and Cape Size. The six independent variables included the bulk carrier fleet volume, iron ore traffic volume, ribo interest rate, bunker oil price, and Euro-Dollar exchange rate. The dependent variables were handy size (32,000 DWT) spot charter rates, Supramax 6 T/C average charter rates, Pana Max (75,000 DWT) spot charter, and Cape Size (170,000 DWT) spot charter. The study examined charter rates by size of bulk carriers, which was different from studies on existing specific types of ships or fares in oil tankers and chemical carriers other than bulk carriers. Findings revealed that influencing factors differed for each ship size. The Libo interest rate had a significant effect on all four ship types, and the iron ore traffic volume had a significant effect on three ship types. The Ribo rate showed a negative (-) relationship with Handy Size, Supramax, Panamax, and Cape Size. Iron ore traffic influenced three types of linearity, except for Panamax. The size of shipping companies differed depending on their characteristics. These findings are expected to contribute to the establishment of a management strategy for shipping companies by analyzing the factors influencing changes in the freight rates of charterers, which have a profound effect on the management performance of shipping companies.

Selection of Optimal Models for Predicting the Distribution of Invasive Alien Plants Species (IAPS) in Forest Genetic Resource Reserves (산림생태계 보호구역에서 외래식물 분포 예측을 위한 최적 모형의 선발)

  • Lim, Chi-hong;Jung, Song-hie;Jung, Su-young;Kim, Nam-shin;Cho, Yong-chan
    • Korean Journal of Environment and Ecology
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    • v.34 no.6
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    • pp.589-600
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    • 2020
  • Effective conservation and management of protected areas require monitoring the settlement of invasive alien species and reducing their dispersion capacity. We simulated the potential distribution of invasive alien plant species (IAPS) using three representative species distribution models (Bioclim, GLM, and MaxEnt) based on the IAPS distribution in the forest genetic resource reserve (2,274ha) in Uljin-gun, Korea. We then selected the realistic and suitable species distribution model that reflects the local region and ecological management characteristics based on the simulation results. The simulation predicted the tendency of the IAPS distributed along the linear landscape elements, such as roads, and including some forest harvested area. The statistical comparison of the prediction and accuracy of each model tested in this study showed that the GLM and MaxEnt models generally had high performance and accuracy compared to the Bioclim model. The Bioclim model calculated the largest potential distribution area, followed by GLM and MaxEnt in that order. The Phenomenological review of the simulation results showed that the sample size more significantly affected the GLM and Bioclim models, while the MaxEnt model was the most consistent regardless of the sample size. The optimal model overall for predicting the distribution of IAPS among the three models was the MaxEnt model. The model selection approach based on detailed flora distribution data presented in this study is expected to be useful for efficiently managing the conservation areas and identifying the realistic and precise species distribution model reflecting local characteristics.

The Clinical Utility of Korean Bayley Scales of Infant and Toddler Development-III - Focusing on using of the US norm - (베일리영유아발달검사 제3판(Bayley-III)의 미국 규준 적용의 문제: 미숙아 집단을 대상으로)

  • Lim, Yoo Jin;Bang, Hee Jeong;Lee, Soonhang
    • Korean journal of psychology:General
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    • v.36 no.1
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    • pp.81-107
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    • 2017
  • The study aims to investigate the clinical utility of Bayley-III using US norm in Korea. A total of 98 preterm infants and 93 term infants were assessed with the K-Bayley-III. The performance pattern of preterm infants was analyzed with mixed design ANOVA which examined the differences of scaled scores and composite scores of Bayley-III between full term- and preterm- infant group and within preterm infants group. Then, We have investigated agreement between classifications of delay made using the BSID-II and Bayley-III. In addition, ROC plots were constructed to identify a Bayley-III cut-off score with optimum diagnostic utility in this sample. The results were as follows. (1) Preterm infants have significantly lower function levels in areas of 5 scaled scores and 3 developmental indexes compared with infants born at term. Significant differences among scores within preterm infant group were also found. (2) Bayley-III had the higher scores of the Mental Development Index and Psychomotor Developmental Index comparing to the scores of K-BSID-II, and had the lower rates of developmental delay. (3) All scales of Bayley-III, Cognitive, Language and Motor scale had the appropriate level of discrimination, but the cut-off composite scores of Bayley-III were adjusted 13~28 points higher than 69 for prediction of delay, as defined by the K-BSID-II. It explains the lower rates of developmental delay using the standard of two standard deviation. This study has provided empirical data to inform that we must careful when interpreting the score for clinical applications, identified the discriminating power, and proposed more appropriate cut-off scores. In addition, discussion about the sampling for making the Korean norm of Bayley-III was provided. It is preferable that infants in Korea should use our own validated norms. The standardization process to get Korean normative data must be performed carefully.