• Title/Summary/Keyword: Prediction performance

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Simulations of Temporal and Spatial Distributions of Rainfall-Induced Turbidity Flow in a Reservoir Using CE-QUAL-W2 (CE-QUAL-W2 모형을 이용한 저수지 탁수의 시공간분포 모의)

  • Chung, Se-Woong;Oh, Jung-Kuk;Ko, Ick-Hwan
    • Journal of Korea Water Resources Association
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    • v.38 no.8 s.157
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    • pp.655-664
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    • 2005
  • A real-time monitoring and modeling system (RTMMS) for rainfall-induced turbidity flow, which is one of the major obstacles for sustainable use of reservoir water resources, is under development. As a prediction model for the RTMMS, a laterally integrated two-dimensional hydrodynamic and water quality model, CE-QUAL-W2 was tested by simulating the temperature stratification, density flow regimes, and temporal and spatial distributions of turbidity in a reservoir. The inflow water temperature and turbidity measured every hour during the flood season of 2004 were used as the boundary conditions. The monitoring data showed that inflow water temperature drop by 5 to $10^{\circ}C$ during rainfall events in summer, and consequently resulted in the development of density flow regimes such as plunge flow and interflow in the reservoir. The model showed relatively satisfactory performance in replicating the water temperature profiles and turbidity distributions, although considerable discrepancies were partially detected between observed and simulated results. The model was either very efficient in computation as the CPU run time to simulate the whole flood season took only 4 minutes with a Pentium 4(CPU 2.0GHz) desktop computer, which is essentially requited for real-time modeling of turbidity plume.

Analysis on Correlation between AE Parameters and Stress Intensity Factor using Principal Component Regression and Artificial Neural Network (주성분 회귀분석 및 인공신경망을 이용한 AE변수와 응력확대계수와의 상관관계 해석)

  • Kim, Ki-Bok;Yoon, Dong-Jin;Jeong, Jung-Chae;Park, Phi-Iip;Lee, Seung-Seok
    • Journal of the Korean Society for Nondestructive Testing
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    • v.21 no.1
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    • pp.80-90
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    • 2001
  • The aim of this study is to develop the methodology which enables to identify the mechanical properties of element such as stress intensity factor by using the AE parameters. Considering the multivariate and nonlinear properties of AE parameters such as ringdown count, rise time, energy, event duration and peak amplitude from fatigue cracks of machine element the principal component regression(PCR) and artificial neural network(ANN) models for the estimation of stress intensity factor were developed and validated. The AE parameters were found to be very significant to estimate the stress intensity factor. Since the statistical values including correlation coefficients, standard mr of calibration, standard error of prediction and bias were stable, the PCR and ANN models for stress intensity factor were very robust. The performance of ANN model for unknown data of stress intensity factor was better than that of PCR model.

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Nondestructive Inspection of Steel Structures Using Phased Array Ultrasonic Technique (위상배열 초음파기법을 이용한 강구조물의 비파괴 탐상)

  • Shin, Hyeon-Jae;Song, Sung-Jin;Jang, You-Hyun
    • Journal of the Korean Society for Nondestructive Testing
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    • v.20 no.6
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    • pp.538-544
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    • 2000
  • A phased array ultrasonic nondestructive inspection system is being developed to obtain images of the interior of steel structures by modifying a medical ultrasound imaging system. The medical system consists of 64 individual transceiver channels that can drive 128 array elements. Several modifications of the system were required mainly due to the change of sound speed. It was necessary to fabricate array transducers for steel structure and to obtain A-scan signal that is necessary for the nondestructive testing. Boundary diffraction wave model was used for the prediction of radiation beam field from array transducers, which provided guidelines to design array transducers. And a RF data acquisition board was fabricated for the A-scan signal acquisition along a selected un line within an image. For the proper beam forming in the transmission and reception for steel structure, delay time was controlled. To demonstrate the performance of the developed system and fabricated transducers, images of artificial specimens and A-scan signals for selected scan lines were obtained in a real time fashion.

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EEG can Predict Neurologic Outcome in Children Resuscitated from Cardiac Arrest (심정지 후 회복된 소아 환자에서 뇌파를 통한 신경학적 예후 예측)

  • Yang, Dong Hwa;Ha, Seok Gyun;Kim, Hyo Jeong
    • Journal of the Korean Child Neurology Society
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    • v.26 no.4
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    • pp.240-245
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    • 2018
  • Purpose: Early prediction of prognosis of children resuscitated from cardiac arrest is a major challenge. We investigated the utility of electroencephalography (EEG) and laboratory studies for predicting of neurologic outcome in children resuscitated from cardiac arrest. Methods: We retrospectively analyzed medical records of patients who were resuscitated from cardiac arrest from 2006 to 2015 at the Gil Medical Center. Patients aged one month to 18 years were included. EEG analysis included background scoring, reactivity and seizure burden. EEG background was classified score 0 (normal/organized), score 1 (slow and disorganized), score 2 (discontinuous or burst suppression), and score 3 (suppressed and featureless). Neurologic outcome was evaluated by Pediatric Cerebral Performance Category (PCPC) at least 6 months after cardiac arrest. Results: Total 26 patients were evaluated. Nine patients showed good neurologic outcome (PCPC 1, 2, 3) and 17 patients showed poor neurologic outcome (PCPC 4, 5, 6). Patients of poor neurologic outcome group showed EEG background score 3 in 88.2%, whereas 44.4% in patients of good neurologic outcome group (P=0.028). Electrographic ictal discharges except non-convulsive status epilepticus were presented in 44.4% of good neurologic outcome group and 5.9% of poor neurologic outcome group (P=0.034). Ammonia and lactate levels were higher and pH levels were lower in poor outcome group than good neurologic outcome group. Conclusion: Suppressed and featureless EEG background is associated with poor neurologic outcome and electrographic seizures are associated with good neurologic outcome.

Multiple Linear Regression Analysis of PV Power Forecasting for Evaluation and Selection of Suitable PV Sites (태양광 발전소 건설부지 평가 및 선정을 위한 선형회귀분석 기반 태양광 발전량 추정 모델)

  • Heo, Jae;Park, Bumsoo;Kim, Byungil;Han, SangUk
    • Korean Journal of Construction Engineering and Management
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    • v.20 no.6
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    • pp.126-131
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    • 2019
  • The estimation of available solar energy at particular locations is critical to find and assess suitable locations of PV sites. The amount of PV power generation is however affected by various geographical factors (e.g., weather), which may make it difficult to identify the complex relationship between affecting factors and power outputs and to apply findings from one study to another in different locations. This study thus undertakes a regression analysis using data collected from 172 PV plants spatially distributed in Korea to identify critical weather conditions and estimate the potential power generation of PV systems. Such data also include solar radiation, precipitation, fine dust, humidity, temperature, cloud amount, sunshine duration, and wind speed. The estimated PV power generation is then compared to the actual PV power generation to evaluate prediction performance. As a result, the proposed model achieves a MAPE of 11.696(%) and an R-squred of 0.979. It is also found that the variables, excluding humidity, are all statistically significant in predicting the efficiency of PV power generation. According, this study may facilitate the understanding of what weather conditions can be considered and the estimation of PV power generation for evaluating and determining suitable locations of PV facilities.

A Survey of Weather Forecasting Software and Installation of Low Resolution of the GloSea6 Software (기상예측시스템 소프트웨어 조사 및 GloSea6 소프트웨어 저해상도 설치방법 구현)

  • Chung, Sung-Wook;Lee, Chang-Hyun;Jeong, Dong-Min;Yeom, Gi-Hun
    • The Journal of Korea Institute of Information, Electronics, and Communication Technology
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    • v.14 no.5
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    • pp.349-361
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    • 2021
  • With the development of technology and the advancement of weather forecasting models and prediction methods, higher performance weather forecasting software has been developed, and more precise and accurate weather forecasting is possible by performing software using supercomputers. In this paper, the weather forecast model used by six major countries is investigated and its characteristics are analyzed, and the Korea Meteorological Administration currently uses it in collaboration with the UK Meteorological Administration since 2012 and explains the GloSea However, the existing GloSea was conducted only on the Meteorological Administration supercomputer, making it difficult for various researchers to perform detailed research by specialized field. Therefore, this paper aims to establish a standard experimental environment in which the low-resolution version based on GloSea6 currently used in Korea can be used in local systems and test it to present the localization of low-resolution GloSea6 that can be performed in the laboratory environment. In other words, in this paper, the local portability of low-resolution Globe6 is verified by establishing a basic architecture consisting of a user terminal-calculation server-repository server and performing execution tests of the software.

Predicting Program Code Changes Using a CNN Model (CNN 모델을 이용한 프로그램 코드 변경 예측)

  • Kim, Dong Kwan
    • Journal of the Korea Convergence Society
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    • v.12 no.9
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    • pp.11-19
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    • 2021
  • A software system is required to change during its life cycle due to various requirements such as adding functionalities, fixing bugs, and adjusting to new computing environments. Such program code modification should be considered as carefully as a new system development becase unexpected software errors could be introduced. In addition, when reusing open source programs, we can expect higher quality software if code changes of the open source program are predicted in advance. This paper proposes a Convolutional Neural Network (CNN)-based deep learning model to predict source code changes. In this paper, the prediction of code changes is considered as a kind of a binary classification problem in deep learning and labeled datasets are used for supervised learning. Java projects and code change logs are collected from GitHub for training and testing datasets. Software metrics are computed from the collected Java source code and they are used as input data for the proposed model to detect code changes. The performance of the proposed model has been measured by using evaluation metrics such as precision, recall, F1-score, and accuracy. The experimental results show the proposed CNN model has achieved 95% in terms of F1-Score and outperformed the multilayer percept-based DNN model whose F1-Score is 92%.

Classification of Soil Creep Hazard Class Using Machine Learning (기계학습기법을 이용한 땅밀림 위험등급 분류)

  • Lee, Gi Ha;Le, Xuan-Hien;Yeon, Min Ho;Seo, Jun Pyo;Lee, Chang Woo
    • Journal of Korean Society of Disaster and Security
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    • v.14 no.3
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    • pp.17-27
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    • 2021
  • In this study, classification models were built using machine learning techniques that can classify the soil creep risk into three classes from A to C (A: risk, B: moderate, C: good). A total of six machine learning techniques were used: K-Nearest Neighbor, Support Vector Machine, Logistic Regression, Decision Tree, Random Forest, and Extreme Gradient Boosting and then their classification accuracy was analyzed using the nationwide soil creep field survey data in 2019 and 2020. As a result of classification accuracy analysis, all six methods showed excellent accuracy of 0.9 or more. The methods where numerical data were applied for data training showed better performance than the methods based on character data of field survey evaluation table. Moreover, the methods learned with the data group (R1~R4) reflecting the expert opinion had higher accuracy than the field survey evaluation score data group (C1~C4). The machine learning can be used as a tool for prediction of soil creep if high-quality data are continuously secured and updated in the future.

A Study on the Structural Reinforcement for the Reduction of Transverse Vibration by Ship's Main Engine (선박 주기관에 의한 횡진동 저감을 위한 구조보강 연구)

  • Shin, Sang-Hoon;Ko, Dae-Eun;Im, Hong-Il
    • Journal of the Korea Academia-Industrial cooperation Society
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    • v.20 no.8
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    • pp.279-285
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    • 2019
  • Transverse vibrations of a ship's aft end and deckhouse are mainly induced by transverse exciting forces from the main engine. Resonance should be avoided in the initial design stages when there is a prediction of resonance between the main engine and transverse modes of the deckhouse. Estimates of frequencies for resonance avoidance are possible from the specifications of the main engine and propeller, but the inherent vibration frequency of the structure around the engine room is not easy to estimate due to the variation in the shape. Experience-oriented vibration design is also carried out, which results in many problems, such as process delay, over-injection of on-site personnel, and iterative performance of the design. For the flexible design of 8,600 TEU container vessels, this study addressed the resonance problem caused by the transverse vibration of the main engine when only the main engine was changed from 12 cylinders to 10 cylinders without modification of the hull structure layout. Efficient structural reinforcement design guidelines are presented for avoiding resonances with the main engine lateral vibration and the structure around the engine room. The guidelines are expected to be used as practical design guidelines at design sites.

Estimation of Resistance Bias Factors for the Ultimate Limit State of Aggregate Pier Reinforced Soil (쇄석다짐말뚝으로 개량된 지반의 극한한계상태에 대한 저항편향계수 산정)

  • Bong, Tae-Ho;Kim, Byoung-Il;Kim, Sung-Ryul
    • Journal of the Korean Geotechnical Society
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    • v.35 no.6
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    • pp.17-26
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    • 2019
  • In this study, the statistical characteristics of the resistance bias factors were analyzed using a high-quality field load test database, and the total resistance bias factors were estimated considering the soil uncertainty and construction errors for the application of the limit state design of aggregate pier foundation. The MLR model by Bong and Kim (2017), which has a higher prediction performance than the previous models was used for estimating the resistance bias factors, and its suitability was evaluated. The chi-square goodness of fit test was performed to estimate the probability distribution of the resistance bias factors, and the normal distribution was found to be most suitable. The total variability in the nominal resistance was estimated including the uncertainty of undrained shear strength and construction errors that can occur during the aggregate pier construction. Finally, the probability distribution of the total resistance bias factors is shown to follow a log-normal distribution. The parameters of the probability distribution according to the coefficient of variation of total resistance bias factors were estimated by Monte Carlo simulation, and their regression equations were proposed for simple application.