• Title/Summary/Keyword: Prediction of variables

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Review of Policy Direction and Coupled Model Development between Groundwater Recharge Quantity and Climate Change (기후변화 연동 지하수 함양량 산정 모델 개발 및 정책방향 고찰)

  • Lee, Moung-Jin;Lee, Joung-Ho;Jeon, Seong-Woo;Houng, Hyun-Jung
    • Journal of Environmental Policy
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    • v.9 no.2
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    • pp.157-184
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    • 2010
  • Global climate change is destroying the water circulation balance by changing rates of precipitation, recharge and discharge, and evapotranspiration. The Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC 2007) makes "changes in rainfall pattern due to climate system changes and consequent shortage of available water resource" a high priority as the weakest part among the effects of human environment caused by future climate changes. Groundwater, which occupies a considerable portion of the world's water resources, is related to climate change via surface water such as rivers, lakes, and marshes, and "direct" interactions, being indirectly affected through recharge. Therefore, in order to quantify the effects of climate change on groundwater resources, it is necessary to not only predict the main variables of climate change but to also accurately predict the underground rainfall recharge quantity. In this paper, the authors selected a relevant climate change scenario, In this context, the authors selected A1B from the Special Report on Emission Scenario (SRES) which is distributed at Korea Meteorological Administration. By using data on temperature, rainfall, soil, and land use, the groundwater recharge rate for the research area was estimated by period and embodied as geographic information system (GIS). In order to calculate the groundwater recharge quantity, Visual HELP3 was used as main model for groundwater recharge, and the physical properties of weather, temperature, and soil layers were used as main input data. General changes to water circulation due to climate change have already been predicted. In order to systematically solve problems associated with how the groundwater resource circulation system should be reflected in future policies pertaining to groundwater resources, it may be urgent to recalculate the groundwater recharge quantity and consequent quantity for using via prediction of climate change in Korea in the future and then reflection of the results. The space-time calculation of changes to the groundwater recharge quantity in the study area may serve as a foundation to present additional measures for the improved management of domestic groundwater resources.

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An Analysis on Factors Related to the Job Satisfaction of Dental Hygienists at J Region (J지역 치과위생사의 직무스트레스 요인 분석)

  • Lee, Hyun-Ok;Ju, On-Ju;Kim, Young-Im
    • Journal of dental hygiene science
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    • v.7 no.2
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    • pp.65-72
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    • 2007
  • The purpose of this study was to examine the job stress and job stressors of dental hygienists. The subjects in the study were 220 dental hygienists who worked in north Jeolla province. After a mail survey was conducted from July 24 through September 24, 2006, the responses from 180 dental hygienists(response rate 81.8%) were gathered, and 156 answer sheets were analyzed except 24 incomplete ones that couldn't be analyzable. The findings of the study were as follows: 1. As for the correlation of overall job stress to turnover intention, their entire stress was under the influence of unreasonable treatment (r = 0.382), conflicts as a professional(r = 0.285), tough working environments(r = 0.303), conflicts with colleagues(r = 0.233), and heavy workload (r = 0.262). Those who were more stressed were more willing to change their occupation, and their stress level made a statistically significant difference to that(p < 0.01). 2. A multiple regression analysis was carried out by selecting the job stressors and turnover intention as independent and dependent variables respectively to see how each of the stressors affected job stress. And unreasonable treatment(p < 0.001) was identified as what had the biggest impact on that, followed by conflicts as a professional(p < 0.05), and tough working environments (p < 0.05). The stressors made a 22.2% prediction of turnover intention.

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Health Care Utilization Pattern and Its Related Factors of Low-income Population with Abnormal Results through Health Examination (저소득층 건강검진 유소견자의 의료이용 양상 및 관련요인)

  • Kwon, Bog-Soon;Kam, Sin;Han, Chang-Hyun
    • Journal of agricultural medicine and community health
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    • v.28 no.2
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    • pp.87-105
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    • 2003
  • Objectives: The purpose of this study was to examine the health care utilization pattern and its related factors of low-income population with abnormal results through health examination. Methods: Analysed data were collected through a questionnaire survey, which was given to 263 persons who 30 years or over with abnormal results through health examination at Health Center. This survey was conducted in March, 2003. This study employed Andersen's prediction model as most well known medical demand mode and data were analysed through 2-test, and multiple logistic regression analysis. Results: The proportion of medical utilization for thorough examination or treatment among study subjects was 51.0%. In multiple logistic regression analysis as dependent variable with medical utilization, the variables affecting the medical utilization were 'feeling about abnormal result(anxiety versus no anxiety: odds ratio 2.25, 95% confidence intervals 1.07-4.75)', 'type of health security(medicaid type I versus health insurance: odds ratio 2.82, 95% confidence intervals 1.04-7.66; medicaid type II versus health insurance: odds ratio 3.22, 95% confidence intervals 1.37-7.53)', 'experience of health examination during past 2 years(odds ratio 2.39, 95% confidence intervals 1.09-5.21)' and 'family member's response for abnormal result(recommendation for medical utilization versus no response: odds ratio 4.90, 95% confidence intervals 1.75-13.75; family member recommended to utilize medical facilities with him/her versus no response: odds ratio 19.47, 95% confidence intervals 5.01-75.73)'. The time of medical utilization was 8-15 days after they received the result(29.9%), 16-30 days after they receive the result(27.6%), 2-7 days after they received the result(20.9%) in order. The most important reason why they didn't take a medical utilization was that it seemed insignificant to them(32.4%). Conclusions: In order to promote medical utilization of low-income population, health education for abnormal result and its management would be necessary to family member as well as person with abnormal result. And follow-up management program for person with abnormal result through health examination such as home-visit health care would be necessary.

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Habitat characteristics and prediction of potential distribution according to climate change for Macromia daimoji Okumura, 1949 (Odonata: Macromiidae) (노란잔산잠자리(Macromia daimojiOkumura, 1949)의 서식지 특성 및 기후변화에 따른 잠재적 분포 예측)

  • Soon Jik Kwon;Hyeok Yeong Kwon;In Chul Hwang;Chang Su Lee;Tae Geun Kim;Jae Heung Park;Yung Chul Jun
    • Journal of Wetlands Research
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    • v.26 no.1
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    • pp.21-31
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    • 2024
  • Macromia daimoji Okumura, 1949 was designated as an endangered species and also categorized as Class II Endangered wildlife on the International Union for Conservation of Nature (IUCN) Red List in Korea. The spatial distribution of this species ranged within a region delimited by northern latitude from Sacheon-si(35.1°) to Yeoncheon-gun(38.0°) and eastern longitude from Yeoncheon-gun(126.8°) to Yangsan-si(128.9°). They generally prefer microhabitats such as slowly flowing littoral zones of streams, alluvial stream islands and temporarily formed puddles in the sand-based lowland streams. The objectives of this study were to analyze the similarity of benthic macroinvertebrate communities in M. daimoji habitats, to predict the current potential distribution patterns as well as the changes of distribution ranges under global climate change circumstances. Data was collected both from the Global Biodiversity Information Facility (GBIF) and by field surveys from April 2009 to September 2022. We adopted MaxEnt model to predict the current and future potential distribution for M. daimoji using downloaded 19 variables from the WorldClim database. The differences of benthic macroinvertebrate assemblages in the mainstream of Nakdonggang were smaller than those in its tributaries and the other streams, based on the surrounding environments and stream sizes. MaxEnt model presented that potential distribution displayed high inhabiting probability in Nakdonggang and its tributaries. Applying to the future scenarios by Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC), SSP1 scenario was predicted to expand in a wide area and SSP5 scenario in a narrow area, comparing with current potential distribution. M. daimoji is not only directly threatened by physical disturbances (e.g. river development activities) but also vulnerable to rapidly changing climate circumstances. Therefore, it is necessary to monitor the habitat environments and establish conservation strategies for preserving population of M. daimoji.

Factors Affecting Blood Pressure of Aged People in Rural Area (일부농촌지역노인(一部農村地域老人)들의 혈압(血壓)과 관계(關係)된 제요인분석(諸要因分析))

  • Kil, Sang-Sun;Ki, No-Suk;Hwang, In-Dam
    • Journal of agricultural medicine and community health
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    • v.10 no.1
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    • pp.42-48
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    • 1985
  • This study was carried out to obtain the basic data for epdemiological survey of hypertension in old population (60 years or more). From May, 1983 to April, 1984, 365 males and 335 females who inhabit in Ko-Chang Gun, Chonbuk Province were investigated for several factors as their socio-econmic status and laboratory examinations with blood pressure, and which factors were analysed by simple correlation and multiple regression analysis. The results are summarized as follows; 1) Sample size of this study is equivalent to 5.2%(male;6.7%, female;4.3%) of population in 60 years or more age group, and the mean age of samples is 70.6${\pm}$5.3 (yr.) in males and 71.4${\pm}$5.3 (yr.) in female (P>0.05). 2) Mean blood pressure of males are 135.9${\pm}$21.3mm Hg in systolic and 85.3${\pm}$13.4mm Hg in diastolic phase and in female, 131.0${\pm}$23.6 mm Hg and 84.1${\pm}$19.9 mm Hg (P < 0.01). Their prevalence rates of hypertension (${\geq}$ 140 mm Hg in systolic, ${\geq}$ 95 mm Hg in diastolic phases) are 33.7% in males, 40.6% in females (P < 0.01). 3) Serum cholesterol levels and other independent variables are revealed in normal ranges, and except to Vervaeck index (89.4${\pm}$5.6 in males, 87.5${\pm}$6.7 in females, p<0.01), other are not significant sexual differences (P>0.05). 4) In the simple correlation analysis, the main factors that affect to blood pressure are serum cholesterol levels (P < 0.05) and Vervaeck index (P < 0.01) in males, age (P <0.05) and Vervaeck index (P <0.01) in females. 5) In multiple regression analysis, prediction equations for blood pressure are calculated as follows; Ysm=-64.55+0.161(X1)+0.124(X2)-0.047(X3)+1.953(X4) Ydm=18.61-0.125(X1)+0.060(X2)+0.032(X3)+0.720(X4) Ysf=-0.22+0.536(X1)+0.134(X2)+0.068(X3+0.788(X4) Yaf=-14.46+0.685(X1)+0.033(X2)+0.176(X3)+0.362(X4) Ysm : Systolic blood pressure in male, Ydm : Diastolic blood pressure in male, Ysf : Systolic blood pressure in female, Ydf : Diastolic blood pressure in female. X1 : Age(year), X2 : Serum cholesterol level (mg%), X3 : Fastin blood sugar (mg% ), X4 : Vervaeck index.

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Sensitivity of Aerosol Optical Parameters on the Atmospheric Radiative Heating Rate (에어로졸 광학변수가 대기복사가열률 산정에 미치는 민감도 분석)

  • Kim, Sang-Woo;Choi, In-Jin;Yoon, Soon-Chang;Kim, Yumi
    • Atmosphere
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    • v.23 no.1
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    • pp.85-92
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    • 2013
  • We estimate atmospheric radiative heating effect of aerosols, based on AErosol RObotic NETwork (AERONET) and lidar observations and radiative transfer calculations. The column radiation model (CRM) is modified to ingest the AERONET measured variables (aerosol optical depth, single scattering albedo, and asymmetric parameter) and subsequently calculate the optical parameters at the 19 bands from the data obtained at four wavelengths. The aerosol radiative forcing at the surface and the top of the atmosphere, and atmospheric absorption on pollution (April 15, 2001) and dust (April 17~18, 2001) days are 3~4 times greater than those on clear-sky days (April 14 and 16, 2001). The atmospheric radiative heating rate (${\Delta}H$) and heating rate by aerosols (${\Delta}H_{aerosol}$) are estimated to be about $3\;K\;day^{-1}$ and $1{\sim}3\;K\;day^{-1}$ for pollution and dust aerosol layers. The sensitivity test showed that a 10% uncertainty in the single scattering albedo results in 30% uncertainties in aerosol radiative forcing at the surface and at the top of the atmosphere and 60% uncertainties in atmospheric forcing, thereby translated to about 35% uncertainties in ${\Delta}H$. This result suggests that atmospheric radiative heating is largely determined by the amount of light-absorbing aerosols.

Predicting the Potential Habitat and Future Distribution of Brachydiplax chalybea flavovittata Ris, 1911 (Odonata: Libellulidae) (기후변화에 따른 남색이마잠자리 잠재적 서식지 및 미래 분포예측)

  • Soon Jik Kwon;Yung Chul Jun;Hyeok Yeong Kwon;In Chul Hwang;Chang Su Lee;Tae Geun Kim
    • Journal of Wetlands Research
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    • v.25 no.4
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    • pp.335-344
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    • 2023
  • Brachydiplax chalybea flavovittata, a climate-sensitive biological indicator species, was first observed and recorded at Jeju Island in Korea in 2010. Overwintering was recently confirmed in the Yeongsan River area. This study was aimed to predict the potential distribution patterns for the larvae of B. chalybea flavovittata and to understand its ecological characteristics as well as changes of population under global climate change circumstances. Data was collected both from the Global Biodiversity Information Facility (GBIF) and by field surveys from May 2019 to May 2023. We used for the distribution model among downloaded 19 variables from the WorldClim database. MaxEnt model was adopted for the prediction of potential and future distribution for B. chalybea flavovittata. Larval distribution ranged within a region delimited by northern latitude from Jeju-si, Jeju Special Self-Governing Province (33.318096°) to Yeoju-si, Gyeonggi-do (37.366734°) and eastern longitude from Jindo-gun, Jeollanam-do (126.054925°) to Yangsan-si, Gyeongsangnam-do (129.016472°). M type (permanent rivers, streams and creeks) wetlands were the most common habitat based on the Ramsar's wetland classification system, followed by Tp type (permanent freshwater marshes and pools) (45.8%) and F type (estuarine waters) (4.2%). MaxEnt model presented that potential distribution with high inhabiting probability included Ulsan and Daegu Metropolitan City in addition to the currently discovered habitats. Applying to the future scenarios by Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC), it was predicted that the possible distribution area would expand in the 2050s and 2090s, covering the southern and western coastal regions, the southern Daegu metropolitan area and the eastern coastal regions in the near future. This study suggests that B. chalybea flavovittata can be used as an effective indicator species for climate changes with a monitoring of their distribution ranges. Our findings will also help to provide basic information on the conservation and management of co-existing native species.

A Study on Web-based Technology Valuation System (웹기반 지능형 기술가치평가 시스템에 관한 연구)

  • Sung, Tae-Eung;Jun, Seung-Pyo;Kim, Sang-Gook;Park, Hyun-Woo
    • Journal of Intelligence and Information Systems
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    • v.23 no.1
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    • pp.23-46
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    • 2017
  • Although there have been cases of evaluating the value of specific companies or projects which have centralized on developed countries in North America and Europe from the early 2000s, the system and methodology for estimating the economic value of individual technologies or patents has been activated on and on. Of course, there exist several online systems that qualitatively evaluate the technology's grade or the patent rating of the technology to be evaluated, as in 'KTRS' of the KIBO and 'SMART 3.1' of the Korea Invention Promotion Association. However, a web-based technology valuation system, referred to as 'STAR-Value system' that calculates the quantitative values of the subject technology for various purposes such as business feasibility analysis, investment attraction, tax/litigation, etc., has been officially opened and recently spreading. In this study, we introduce the type of methodology and evaluation model, reference information supporting these theories, and how database associated are utilized, focusing various modules and frameworks embedded in STAR-Value system. In particular, there are six valuation methods, including the discounted cash flow method (DCF), which is a representative one based on the income approach that anticipates future economic income to be valued at present, and the relief-from-royalty method, which calculates the present value of royalties' where we consider the contribution of the subject technology towards the business value created as the royalty rate. We look at how models and related support information (technology life, corporate (business) financial information, discount rate, industrial technology factors, etc.) can be used and linked in a intelligent manner. Based on the classification of information such as International Patent Classification (IPC) or Korea Standard Industry Classification (KSIC) for technology to be evaluated, the STAR-Value system automatically returns meta data such as technology cycle time (TCT), sales growth rate and profitability data of similar company or industry sector, weighted average cost of capital (WACC), indices of industrial technology factors, etc., and apply adjustment factors to them, so that the result of technology value calculation has high reliability and objectivity. Furthermore, if the information on the potential market size of the target technology and the market share of the commercialization subject refers to data-driven information, or if the estimated value range of similar technologies by industry sector is provided from the evaluation cases which are already completed and accumulated in database, the STAR-Value is anticipated that it will enable to present highly accurate value range in real time by intelligently linking various support modules. Including the explanation of the various valuation models and relevant primary variables as presented in this paper, the STAR-Value system intends to utilize more systematically and in a data-driven way by supporting the optimal model selection guideline module, intelligent technology value range reasoning module, and similar company selection based market share prediction module, etc. In addition, the research on the development and intelligence of the web-based STAR-Value system is significant in that it widely spread the web-based system that can be used in the validation and application to practices of the theoretical feasibility of the technology valuation field, and it is expected that it could be utilized in various fields of technology commercialization.

Optimization and Development of Prediction Model on the Removal Condition of Livestock Wastewater using a Response Surface Method in the Photo-Fenton Oxidation Process (Photo-Fenton 산화공정에서 반응표면분석법을 이용한 축산폐수의 COD 처리조건 최적화 및 예측식 수립)

  • Cho, Il-Hyoung;Chang, Soon-Woong;Lee, Si-Jin
    • Journal of Korean Society of Environmental Engineers
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    • v.30 no.6
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    • pp.642-652
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    • 2008
  • The aim of our research was to apply experimental design methodology in the optimization condition of Photo-Fenton oxidation of the residual livestock wastewater after the coagulation process. The reactions of Photo-Fenton oxidation were mathematically described as a function of parameters amount of Fe(II)($x_1$), $H_2O_2(x_2)$ and pH($x_3$) being modeled by the use of the Box-Behnken method, which was used for fitting 2nd order response surface models and was alternative to central composite designs. The application of RSM using the Box-Behnken method yielded the following regression equation, which is an empirical relationship between the removal(%) of livestock wastewater and test variables in coded unit: Y = 79.3 + 15.61x$_1$ - 7.31x$_2$ - 4.26x$_3$ - 18x$_1{^2}$ - 10x$_2{^2}$ - 11.9x$_3{^2}$ + 2.49x$_1$x$_2$ - 4.4x$_2$x$_3$ - 1.65x$_1$x$_3$. The model predicted also agreed with the experimentally observed result(R$^2$ = 0.96) The results show that the response of treatment removal(%) in Photo-Fenton oxidation of livestock wastewater were significantly affected by the synergistic effect of linear terms(Fe(II)($x_1$), $H_2O_2(x_2)$, pH(x$_3$)), whereas Fe(II) $\times$ Fe(II)(x$_1{^2}$), $H_2O_2$ $\times$ $H_2O_2$(x$_2{^2}$) and pH $\times$ pH(x$_3{^2}$) on the quadratic terms were significantly affected by the antagonistic effect. $H_2O_2$ $\times$ pH(x$_2$x$_3$) had also a antagonistic effect in the cross-product term. The estimated ridge of the expected maximum response and optimal conditions for Y using canonical analysis were 84 $\pm$ 0.95% and (Fe(II)(X$_1$) = 0.0146 mM, $H_2O_2$(X$_2$) = 0.0867 mM and pH(X$_3$) = 4.704, respectively. The optimal ratio of Fe/H$_2O_2$ was also 0.17 at the pH 4.7.

A Statistical model to Predict soil Temperature by Combining the Yearly Oscillation Fourier Expansion and Meteorological Factors (연주기(年週期) Fourier 함수(函數)와 기상요소(氣象要素)에 의(依)한 지온예측(地溫豫測) 통계(統計) 모형(模型))

  • Jung, Yeong-Sang;Lee, Byun-Woo;Kim, Byung-Chang;Lee, Yang-Soo;Um, Ki-Tae
    • Korean Journal of Soil Science and Fertilizer
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    • v.23 no.2
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    • pp.87-93
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    • 1990
  • A statistical model to predict soil temperature from the ambient meteorological factors including mean, maximum and minimum air temperatures, precipitation, wind speed and snow depth combined with Fourier time series expansion was developed with the data measured at the Suwon Meteorolical Service from 1979 to 1988. The stepwise elimination technique was used for statistical analysis. For the yearly oscillation model for soil temperature with 8 terms of Fourier expansion, the mean square error was decreased with soil depth showing 2.30 for the surface temperature, and 1.34-0.42 for 5 to 500-cm soil temperatures. The $r^2$ ranged from 0.913 to 0.988. The number of lag days of air temperature by remainder analysis was 0 day for the soil surface temperature, -1 day for 5 to 30-cm soil temperature, and -2 days for 50-cm soil temperature. The number of lag days for precipitaion, snow depth and wind speed was -1 day for the 0 to 10-cm soil temperatures, and -2 to -3 days for the 30 to 50-cm soil teperatures. For the statistical soil temperature prediction model combined with the yearly oscillation terms and meteorological factors as remainder terms considering the lag days obtained above, the mean square error was 1.64 for the soil surfac temperature, and ranged 1.34-0.42 for 5 to 500cm soil temperatures. The model test with 1978 data independent to model development resulted in good agreement with $r^2$ ranged 0.976 to 0.996. The magnitudes of coeffcicients implied that the soil depth where daily meteorological variables night affect soil temperature was 30 to 50 cm. In the models, solar radiation was not included as a independent variable ; however, in a seperated analysis on relationship between the difference(${\Delta}Tmxs$) of the maximum soil temperature and the maximum air temperature and solar radiation(Rs ; $J\;m^{-2}$) under a corn canopy showed linear relationship as $${\Delta}Tmxs=0.902+1.924{\times}10^{-3}$$ Rs for leaf area index lower than 2 $${\Delta}Tmxs=0.274+8.881{\times}10^{-4}$$ Rs for leaf area index higher than 2.

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