• Title/Summary/Keyword: Prediction of space

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Towards More Accurate Space-Use Prediction: A Conceptual Framework of an Agent-Based Space-Use Prediction Simulation System

  • Cha, Seung Hyun;Kim, Tae Wan
    • International conference on construction engineering and project management
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    • 2015.10a
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    • pp.349-352
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    • 2015
  • Size of building has a direct relationship with building cost, energy use and space maintenance cost. Therefore, minimizing building size during a project development is of paramount importance against such wastes. However, incautious reduction of building size may result in crowded space, and therefore harms the functionality despite the fact that building is supposed to satisfactorily support users' activity. A well-balanced design solution is, therefore, needed at an optimum level that minimizes building size in tandem with providing sufficient space to maintain functionality. For such design, architects and engineers need to be informed accurate and reliable space-use information. We present in this paper a conceptual framework of an agent-based space-use prediction simulation system that provides individual level space-use information over time in a building in consideration of project specific user information and activity schedules, space preference, ad beavioural rules. The information will accordingly assist architects and engineers to optimize space of the building as appropriate.

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A Study on Enhancement of Orbit Prediction Precision for Space Objects Using TLE (TLE를 이용한 우주물체 궤도예측 정밀도 향상 연구)

  • Yim, Hyeonjeong;Jung, Ok-Chul;Chung, Dae-Won
    • Journal of the Korean Society for Aeronautical & Space Sciences
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    • v.42 no.3
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    • pp.270-278
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    • 2014
  • This paper describes an improvement of space objects orbit prediction. To screen possible collisions between operational satellites and space objects, the TLE (Two-Line Element) was used as pseudo-measurement and than the orbit determination and orbit prediction were performed through the flight dynamics system. For determining the orbits, the state vectors were assumed by a series of TLEs within a certain period. The propagation error was analyzed according to the fitting period and a number of pseudo-observations. In order to find out the improvement of orbit prediction with the proposed method, KOMPSAT-2, 3 having the precise orbit in the meter-level range were first applied. Then the result applied to space objects under the same conditions was analyzed. As a result of the RMS error comparison with the orbit prediction of space object, the precision of orbit prediction was improved by approximately 90% for seven days prediction. The improved orbit prediction of space objects can be utilized in the daily analysis for initial screening of the close space objects at high risk.

Heliocentric Potential (HCP) Prediction Model for Nowscast of Aviation Radiation Dose

  • Hwang, Junga;Kim, Kyung-Chan;Dokgo, Kyunghwan;Choi, Enjin;Kim, Hang-Pyo
    • Journal of Astronomy and Space Sciences
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    • v.32 no.1
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    • pp.39-44
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    • 2015
  • It is well known that the space radiation dose over the polar route should be carefully considered especially when the space weather shows sudden disturbances such as CME and flares. The National Meteorological Satellite Center (NMSC) and Korea Astronomy and Space Science Institute (KASI) recently established a basis for a space radiation service for the public by developing a space radiation prediction model and heliocentric potential (HCP) prediction model. The HCP value is used as a critical input value of the CARI-6 and CARI-6M programs, which estimate the aviation route dose. The CARI-6/6M is the most widely used and confidential program that is officially provided by the U.S. Federal Aviation Administration (FAA). The HCP value is given one month late in the FAA official webpage, making it difficult to obtain real-time information on the aviation route dose. In order to overcome this limitation regarding time delay, we developed a HCP prediction model based on the sunspot number variation. In this paper, we focus on the purpose and process of our HCP prediction model development. Finally, we find the highest correlation coefficient of 0.9 between the monthly sunspot number and the HCP value with an eight month time shift.

Prediction Model of Propagation Path Loss of the Free Space in the Sea (해수면 자유공간의 전파경로손실 예측 모델)

  • 류광진;박창균
    • The Journal of the Acoustical Society of Korea
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    • v.22 no.7
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    • pp.579-584
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    • 2003
  • All of propagation path loss prediction models, which have been presented up to date, are oかy for ground living space. In reality, sea surface free space is different from ground living space in physical hierarchical structure. If the propagation path prediction model for ground living space is applied to the sea surface free space, propagation path loss will be smaller than actual value, while the maximum service straight line will become shorter. Thus this paper proposed and simulated the propagation path loss prediction model for predicting propagation path loss more accurately in sea surface free space, with its focus on CDMA mobile communication frequency band. Then the simulation results were compared to actual survey to verify its practicality.

A Deep Space Orbit Determination Software: Overview and Event Prediction Capability

  • Kim, Youngkwang;Park, Sang-Young;Lee, Eunji;Kim, Minsik
    • Journal of Astronomy and Space Sciences
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    • v.34 no.2
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    • pp.139-151
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    • 2017
  • This paper presents an overview of deep space orbit determination software (DSODS), as well as validation and verification results on its event prediction capabilities. DSODS was developed in the MATLAB object-oriented programming environment to support the Korea Pathfinder Lunar Orbiter (KPLO) mission. DSODS has three major capabilities: celestial event prediction for spacecraft, orbit determination with deep space network (DSN) tracking data, and DSN tracking data simulation. To achieve its functionality requirements, DSODS consists of four modules: orbit propagation (OP), event prediction (EP), data simulation (DS), and orbit determination (OD) modules. This paper explains the highest-level data flows between modules in event prediction, orbit determination, and tracking data simulation processes. Furthermore, to address the event prediction capability of DSODS, this paper introduces OP and EP modules. The role of the OP module is to handle time and coordinate system conversions, to propagate spacecraft trajectories, and to handle the ephemerides of spacecraft and celestial bodies. Currently, the OP module utilizes the General Mission Analysis Tool (GMAT) as a third-party software component for high-fidelity deep space propagation, as well as time and coordinate system conversions. The role of the EP module is to predict celestial events, including eclipses, and ground station visibilities, and this paper presents the functionality requirements of the EP module. The validation and verification results show that, for most cases, event prediction errors were less than 10 millisec when compared with flight proven mission analysis tools such as GMAT and Systems Tool Kit (STK). Thus, we conclude that DSODS is capable of predicting events for the KPLO in real mission applications.

A Conceptual Framework of an Agent-Based Space-Use Prediction Simulation System

  • Cha, Seung Hyun;Kim, Tae Wan
    • Journal of Construction Engineering and Project Management
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    • v.5 no.4
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    • pp.12-15
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    • 2015
  • Size of building has a direct relationship with building cost, energy use and space maintenance cost. Therefore, minimizing building size during a project development is of paramount importance against such wastes. However, incautious reduction of building size may result in crowded space, and therefore harms the functionality despite the fact that building is supposed to satisfactorily support users' activity. A well-balanced design solution is, therefore, needed at an optimum level that minimizes building size in tandem with providing sufficient space to maintain functionality. For such design, architects and engineers need to be informed accurate and reliable space-use information. We present in this paper a conceptual framework of an agent-based space-use prediction simulation system that provides individual level space-use information over time in a building in consideration of project specific user information and activity schedules, space preference, ad beavioural rules. The information will accordingly assist architects and engineers to optimize space of the building as appropriate.

Improving the Accuracy of a Heliocentric Potential (HCP) Prediction Model for the Aviation Radiation Dose

  • Hwang, Junga;Yoon, Kyoung-Won;Jo, Gyeongbok;Noh, Sung-Jun
    • Journal of Astronomy and Space Sciences
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    • v.33 no.4
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    • pp.279-285
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    • 2016
  • The space radiation dose over air routes including polar routes should be carefully considered, especially when space weather shows sudden disturbances such as coronal mass ejections (CMEs), flares, and accompanying solar energetic particle events. We recently established a heliocentric potential (HCP) prediction model for real-time operation of the CARI-6 and CARI-6M programs. Specifically, the HCP value is used as a critical input value in the CARI-6/6M programs, which estimate the aviation route dose based on the effective dose rate. The CARI-6/6M approach is the most widely used technique, and the programs can be obtained from the U.S. Federal Aviation Administration (FAA). However, HCP values are given at a one month delay on the FAA official webpage, which makes it difficult to obtain real-time information on the aviation route dose. In order to overcome this critical limitation regarding the time delay for space weather customers, we developed a HCP prediction model based on sunspot number variations (Hwang et al. 2015). In this paper, we focus on improvements to our HCP prediction model and update it with neutron monitoring data. We found that the most accurate method to derive the HCP value involves (1) real-time daily sunspot assessments, (2) predictions of the daily HCP by our prediction algorithm, and (3) calculations of the resultant daily effective dose rate. Additionally, we also derived the HCP prediction algorithm in this paper by using ground neutron counts. With the compensation stemming from the use of ground neutron count data, the newly developed HCP prediction model was improved.

Construction of Korean Space Weather Prediction Center: Storm Prediction Model

  • Kim, R.S.;Cho, K.S.;Moon, Y.J.;Yi, Yu;Choi, S.H.;Baek, J.H.;Park, Y.D.
    • Bulletin of the Korean Space Science Society
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    • 2008.10a
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    • pp.33.2-33.2
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    • 2008
  • Korea Astronomy and Space Science Institute (KASI) is developing an empirical model for Korean Space Weather Prediction Center (KSWPC). This model predicts the geomagnetic storm strength (Dst minimum) by using only CME parameters, such as the source location (L), speed (V), earthward direction (D), and magnetic field orientation of an overlaying potential field at CME source region. To derive an empirical formula, we considered that (1) the direction parameter has best correlation with the storm strength (2) west $15^{\circ}$ offset from the central meridian gives best correlation between the source location and the storm strength (3) consideration of two groups of CMEs according to their magnetic field orientation (southward or northward) provide better forecast. In this talk, we introduce current status of the empirical storm prediction model development.

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Construction of Korean Space Weather Prediction Center: Introduction

  • Cho, Kyung-Suk;Bong, Su-Chan;Kim, Yeon-Han;Kim, Khan-Hyuk;Hwang, Jung-A;Kwak, Young-Sil;Kim, Rok-Soon;Lee, Jae-Jin;Choi, Seong-Hwan;Baek, Ji-Hye;Park, Young-Deuk
    • Bulletin of the Korean Space Science Society
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    • 2008.10a
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    • pp.32.1-32.1
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    • 2008
  • It is well known that solar and space weather activities can influence the performance and reliability of modern technological system and can endanger human life. Since 2007, the Korea Astronomy and Space Science Institute (KASI) has initiated a research project for the construction of Korean Space Weather Prediction Center (K-SWPC) to make preparations for the next solar cycle maximum (~2012). In this talk, we briefly introduce the current progress of KASI activities for K-SWPC; extension of ground observation system, construction of space weather database and network, development of prediction models, and space weather effects. In addition, future plans for KSWPC will be discussed.

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Challenges and suggestions in dealing with flexible space in predicting space utilization

  • Chen, Xingbin;Kim, Tae Wan
    • International conference on construction engineering and project management
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    • 2015.10a
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    • pp.299-303
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    • 2015
  • Flexible space is an adaptable space that has been increasingly used in many office and academic buildings as it increases the use of the space available and reduces the unnecessary building area. However, the architectural, engineering and construction (AEC) industry lacks a formalized method that helps architects predict and update the space utilization of flexible space during the project development, as such prediction aims to maximize the use of the building space available without exceeding the target utilization policy. Consequently, current manual utilization prediction results in lower accuracy level and limits the maximized use of the flexible space, which has multiple space-use types that affect the prediction of utilization. To address this problem, we identified eight space-use type differentiators (SUTDs) based on the literature review and observations and discussed the use of them in automated space-use analysis (SUA), which can predict the utilization of flexible space via a computer program. This research builds on SUA and contributes to flexible space planning by providing a means of a more comprehensive and accurate SUA.

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