• Title/Summary/Keyword: Prediction of Power Generation

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Forecasting of Short-term Wind Power Generation Based on SVR Using Characteristics of Wind Direction and Wind Speed (풍향과 풍속의 특징을 이용한 SVR기반 단기풍력발전량 예측)

  • Kim, Yeong-ju;Jeong, Min-a;Son, Nam-rye
    • The Journal of Korean Institute of Communications and Information Sciences
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    • v.42 no.5
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    • pp.1085-1092
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    • 2017
  • In this paper, we propose a wind forecasting method that reflects wind characteristics to improve the accuracy of wind power prediction. The proposed method consists of extracting wind characteristics and predicting power generation. The part that extracts the characteristics of the wind uses correlation analysis of power generation amount, wind direction and wind speed. Based on the correlation between the wind direction and the wind speed, the feature vector is extracted by clustering using the K-means method. In the prediction part, machine learning is performed using the SVR that generalizes the SVM so that an arbitrary real value can be predicted. Machine learning was compared with the proposed method which reflects the characteristics of wind and the conventional method which does not reflect wind characteristics. To verify the accuracy and feasibility of the proposed method, we used the data collected from three different locations of Jeju Island wind farm. Experimental results show that the error of the proposed method is better than that of general wind power generation.

Prediction of Internal Tube Bundle Failure in High Pressure Feedwater Heater for a Power Generation Boiler by the Operating Record Monitoring (운전기록 모니터링에 의한 발전보일러용 고압 급수가열기 내부 튜브의 파손예측)

  • Kim, Kyeong-seob;Yoo, Hoseon
    • Plant Journal
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    • v.15 no.2
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    • pp.56-61
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    • 2019
  • In this study, the failure analysis of the internal tube occurred in the high pressure feedwater heater for power generation boiler of 500 MW supercritical pressure coal fired power plant was investigated. I suggested a prediction model that can diagnose internal tube failure by changing the position of level control valve on the shell side and the suction flow rate of the boiler feedwater pump. The suggested prediction model is demonstrated through additional cases of feedwater system unbalance. The simultaneous comparison of the shell side level control valve position and the suction flow rate of the boiler feedwater pump compared to the normal operating state value, even in the case of the high pressure feedwater heater for the power boiler, It can be a powerful prediction diagnosis.

Power Prediction of P-Type Si Bifacial PV Module Using View Factor for the Application to Microgrid Network (View Factor를 고려한 마이크로그리드 적용용 고효율 P-Type Si 양면형 태양광 모듈의 출력량 예측)

  • Choi, Jin Ho;Kim, David Kwangsoon;Cha, Hae Lim;Kim, Gyu Gwang;Bhang, Byeong Gwan;Park, So Young;Ahn, Hyung Keun
    • Journal of the Korean Institute of Electrical and Electronic Material Engineers
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    • v.31 no.3
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    • pp.182-187
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    • 2018
  • In this study, 20.8% of a p-type Si bifacial solar cell was used to develop a photovoltaic (PV) module to obtain the maximum power under a limited installation area. The transparent back sheet material was replaced during fabrication with a white one, which is opaque in commercial products. This is very beneficial for the generation of more electricity, owing to the additional power generation via absorption of light from the rear side. A new model is suggested herein to predict the power of the bifacial PV module by considering the backside reflections from the roof and/or environment. This model considers not only the frontside reflection, but also the nonuniformity of the backside light sources. Theoretical predictions were compared to experimental data to prove the validity of this model, the error range for which ranged from 0.32% to 8.49%. Especially, under $700W/m^2$, the error rate was as low as 2.25%. This work could provide theoretical and experimental bases for application to a distributed and microgrid network.

Development of PV Power Prediction Algorithm using Adaptive Neuro-Fuzzy Model (적응적 뉴로-퍼지 모델을 이용한 태양광 발전량 예측 알고리즘 개발)

  • Lee, Dae-Jong;Lee, Jong-Pil;Lee, Chang-Sung;Lim, Jae-Yoon;Ji, Pyeong-Shik
    • The Transactions of the Korean Institute of Electrical Engineers P
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    • v.64 no.4
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    • pp.246-250
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    • 2015
  • Solar energy will be an increasingly important part of power generation because of its ubiquity abundance, and sustainability. To manage effectively solar energy to power system, it is essential part In this paper, we develop the PV power prediction algorithm using adaptive neuro-fuzzy model considering various input factors such as temperature, solar irradiance, sunshine hours, and cloudiness. To evaluate performance of the proposed model according to input factors, we performed various experiments by using real data.

Prediction of module temperature and photovoltaic electricity generation by the data of Korea Meteorological Administration (데이터를 활용한 태양광 발전 시스템 모듈온도 및 발전량 예측)

  • Kim, Yong-min;Moon, Seung-Jae
    • Plant Journal
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    • v.17 no.4
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    • pp.41-52
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    • 2021
  • In this study, the PV output and module temperature values were predicted using the Meteorological Agency data and compared with actual data, weather, solar radiation, ambient temperature, and wind speed. The forecast accuracy by weather was the lowest in the data on a clear day, which had the most data of the day when it was snowing or the sun was hit at dawn. The predicted accuracy of the module temperature and the amount of power generation according to the amount of insolation decreased as the amount of insolation increased, and the predicted accuracy according to the ambient temperature decreased as the module temperature increased as the ambient temperature increased and the amount of power generated lowered the ambient temperature. As for wind speed, the predicted accuracy decreased as the wind speed increased for both module temperature and power generation, but it was difficult to define the correlation because wind speed was insignificant than the influence of other weather conditions.

Smart support system for diagnosing severe accidents in nuclear power plants

  • Yoo, Kwae Hwan;Back, Ju Hyun;Na, Man Gyun;Hur, Seop;Kim, Hyeonmin
    • Nuclear Engineering and Technology
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    • v.50 no.4
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    • pp.562-569
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    • 2018
  • Recently, human errors have very rarely occurred during power generation at nuclear power plants. For this reason, many countries are conducting research on smart support systems of nuclear power plants. Smart support systems can help with operator decisions in severe accident occurrences. In this study, a smart support system was developed by integrating accident prediction functions from previous research and enhancing their prediction capability. Through this system, operators can predict accident scenarios, accident locations, and accident information in advance. In addition, it is possible to decide on the integrity of instruments and predict the life of instruments. The data were obtained using Modular Accident Analysis Program code to simulate severe accident scenarios for the Optimized Power Reactor 1000. The prediction of the accident scenario, accident location, and accident information was conducted using artificial intelligence methods.

Development of Solar Power Output Prediction Method using Big Data Processing Technic (태양광 발전량 예측을 위한 빅데이터 처리 방법 개발)

  • Jung, Jae Cheon;Song, Chi Sung
    • Journal of the Korean Society of Systems Engineering
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    • v.16 no.1
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    • pp.58-67
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    • 2020
  • A big data processing method to predict solar power generation using systems engineering approach is developed in this work. For developing analytical method, linear model (LM), support vector machine (SVN), and artificial neural network (ANN) technique are chosen. As evaluation indices, the cross-correlation and the mean square root of prediction error (RMSEP) are used. From multi-variable comparison test, it was found that ANN methodology provides the highest correlation and the lowest RMSEP.

Modbus TCP based Solar Power Plant Monitoring System using Raspberry Pi (라즈베리파이를 이용한 Modbus TCP 기반 태양광 발전소 모니터링 시스템)

  • Park, Jin-Hwan;Kim, Chang-Bok
    • Journal of Advanced Navigation Technology
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    • v.24 no.6
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    • pp.620-626
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    • 2020
  • This research propose and simulate a solar power generation system monitoring system based on Modbus TCP communication using RaspberryPi, an IOT equipment, as a master and an inverter as a slave. In this model, various sensors are added to the RaspberryPi to add necessary information for monitoring solar power plants, and power generation prediction and monitoring information are transmitted to the smart phone through real-time power generation prediction. In addition, information that is continuously generated by the solar power plant is built on the server as big data, and a deep learning model for predicting power generation is trained and updated. As a result of the study, stable communication was possible based on Modbus TCP with the Raspberry Pi in the inverter, and real-time prediction was possible with the deep learning model learned in the Raspberry Pi. The server was able to train various deep learning models with big data, and it was confirmed that LSTM showed the best error with a learning error of 0.0069, a test error of 0.0075, and an RMSE of 0.0866. This model suggested that it is possible to implement a real-time monitoring system that is simpler, more convenient, and can predict the amount of power generation for inverters of various manufacturers.

Renewable Energy Generation Prediction Model using Meteorological Big Data (기상 빅데이터를 활용한 신재생 에너지 발전량 예측 모형 연구)

  • Mi-Young Kang
    • The Journal of the Korea institute of electronic communication sciences
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    • v.18 no.1
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    • pp.39-44
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    • 2023
  • Renewable energy such as solar and wind power is a resource that is sensitive to weather conditions and environmental changes. Since the amount of power generated by a facility can vary depending on the installation location and structure, it is important to accurately predict the amount of power generation. Using meteorological data, a data preprocessing process based on principal component analysis was conducted to monitor the relationship between features that affect energy production prediction. In addition, in this study, the prediction was tested by reconstructing the dataset according to the sensitivity and applying it to the machine learning model. Using the proposed model, the performance of energy production prediction using random forest regression was confirmed by predicting energy production according to the meteorological environment for new and renewable energy, and comparing it with the actual production value at that time.

A study of Comparative Analysis of CPV and PV Module through Long-term Outdoor Testing (장기 Outdoor Test를 통한 CPV와 PV 모듈의 발전량 비교분석)

  • Kim, Minsu;Lee, Yuri;Cho, Minje;Oh, Soo Young;Jung, Jae Hak
    • Current Photovoltaic Research
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    • v.5 no.1
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    • pp.33-37
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    • 2017
  • Today, photovoltaic power generation mostly uses Si crystalline solar cell modules. The most vulnerable part of the Si solar cell module is that the power generation decreases due to the temperature rise. But, it is widely used because of low installation cost. In the solar market, where Si crystalline solar cell modules are widely used. The CPV (Concentrated Photovoltaic) module appeared in the solar market. The CPV module reduces the manufacturing cost of the solar cell by using non-Si in the solar cell. Also, there is an advantage that a rise in temperature does not cause a drop in power generation. But this requires high technology to install and has a disadvantage that the initial installation cost is expensive compared to normal Si solar cell module. So that we built a testbed to see these characteristics. The testbed was used to measure the amount of power generation in a long-term outdoor environment and compared with the general Si solar cell module.