• Title/Summary/Keyword: Prediction models

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A Study on the Prediction Model of the Elderly Depression

  • SEO, Beom-Seok;SUH, Eung-Kyo;KIM, Tae-Hyeong
    • The Journal of Industrial Distribution & Business
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    • v.11 no.7
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    • pp.29-40
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    • 2020
  • Purpose: In modern society, many urban problems are occurring, such as aging, hollowing out old city centers and polarization within cities. In this study, we intend to apply big data and machine learning methodologies to predict depression symptoms in the elderly population early on, thus contributing to solving the problem of elderly depression. Research design, data and methodology: Machine learning techniques used random forest and analyzed the correlation between CES-D10 and other variables, which are widely used worldwide, to estimate important variables. Dependent variables were set up as two variables that distinguish normal/depression from moderate/severe depression, and a total of 106 independent variables were included, including subjective health conditions, cognitive abilities, and daily life quality surveys, as well as the objective characteristics of the elderly as well as the subjective health, health, employment, household background, income, consumption, assets, subjective expectations, and quality of life surveys. Results: Studies have shown that satisfaction with residential areas and quality of life and cognitive ability scores have important effects in classifying elderly depression, satisfaction with living quality and economic conditions, and number of outpatient care in living areas and clinics have been important variables. In addition, the results of a random forest performance evaluation, the accuracy of classification model that classify whether elderly depression or not was 86.3%, the sensitivity 79.5%, and the specificity 93.3%. And the accuracy of classification model the degree of elderly depression was 86.1%, sensitivity 93.9% and specificity 74.7%. Conclusions: In this study, the important variables of the estimated predictive model were identified using the random forest technique and the study was conducted with a focus on the predictive performance itself. Although there are limitations in research, such as the lack of clear criteria for the classification of depression levels and the failure to reflect variables other than KLoSA data, it is expected that if additional variables are secured in the future and high-performance predictive models are estimated and utilized through various machine learning techniques, it will be able to consider ways to improve the quality of life of senior citizens through early detection of depression and thus help them make public policy decisions.

The optimal parameter estimation of storage function model based on the dynamic effect (동적효과를 고려한 저류함수모형의 최적 매개변수 결정)

  • Kim Jong-Rae;Kim Joo-Cheal;Jeong Dong-Kook;Kim Jae-Han
    • Journal of Korea Water Resources Association
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    • v.39 no.7 s.168
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    • pp.593-603
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    • 2006
  • The basin response to storm is regarded as nonlinearity inherently. In addition, the consistent nonlinearity of hydrologic system response to rainfall has been very tough and cumbersome to be treated analytically. The thing is that such nonlinear models have been avoided because of computational difficulties in identifying the model parameters from recorded data. The parameters of nonlinear system considered as dynamic effects in the conceptual model are optimized as the sum of errors between the observed and computed runoff is minimized. For obtaining the optimal parameters of functions, the historical data for the Bocheong watershed in the Geum river basin were tested by applying the numerical methods, such as quasi-linearization technique, Runge-Kutta procedure, and pattern-search method. The estimated runoff carried through from the storage function with dynamic effects was compared with the one of 1st-order differential equation model expressing just nonlinearity, and also done with Nash model. It was found that the 2nd-order model yields a better prediction of the hydrograph from each storm than the 1st-order model. However, the 2nd-order model was shown to be equivalent to Nash model when it comes to results. As a result, the parameters of nonlinear 2nd-order differential equation model performed from the present study provided not only a considerable physical meaning but also a applicability to Korean watersheds.

A Method for Correcting Air-Pressure Data Collected by Mini-AWS (소형 자동기상관측장비(Mini-AWS) 기압자료 보정 기법)

  • Ha, Ji-Hun;Kim, Yong-Hyuk;Im, Hyo-Hyuc;Choi, Deokwhan;Lee, Yong Hee
    • Journal of the Korean Institute of Intelligent Systems
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    • v.26 no.3
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    • pp.182-189
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    • 2016
  • For high accuracy of forecast using numerical weather prediction models, we need to get weather observation data that are large and high dense. Korea Meteorological Administration (KMA) mantains Automatic Weather Stations (AWSs) to get weather observation data, but their installation and maintenance costs are high. Mini-AWS is a very compact automatic weather station that can measure and record temperature, humidity, and pressure. In contrast to AWS, costs of Mini-AWS's installation and maintenance are low. It also has a little space restraints for installing. So it is easier than AWS to install mini-AWS on places where we want to get weather observation data. But we cannot use the data observed from Mini-AWSs directly, because it can be affected by surrounding. In this paper, we suggest a correcting method for using pressure data observed from Mini-AWS as weather observation data. We carried out preconditioning process on pressure data from Mini-AWS. Then they were corrected by using machine learning methods with the aim of adjusting to pressure data of the AWS closest to them. Our experimental results showed that corrected pressure data are in regulation and our correcting method using SVR showed very good performance.

Individual Presence-and-Preference-Based Local Intelligent Service System and Mobile Edge Computing (개인 프레즌스-선호 기반 지능형 로컬 서비스 시스템과 모바일 엣지 컴퓨팅 환경에서의 적용 방안)

  • Kim, Kilhwan;Jang, Jin-San;Keum, Changsup;Chung, Ki-Sook
    • The Journal of Korean Institute of Communications and Information Sciences
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    • v.42 no.2
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    • pp.523-535
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    • 2017
  • Local intelligent services aim at controlling local services such as cooling or lightening services in a certain local area, using Internet-of-Things (IoT) sensor data in the area. As the IoT paradigm has evolved, local intelligent services have gained increasing attention. However, most of the local intelligent service mechanism proposed so far do not directly take the users' presence and service preference information into account for controlling local services. This study proposes an individual presence-and-preference-based local service system (IPP-LISS). We present a intelligent service control algorithm and implement a prototype system of IPP-LISS. Typically, the intelligence part of IPP-LISS including the prediction models, is generated on remote server in the cloud because of their compute-intense aspect. However, this can cause huge data traffic between IoT devices and servers in the cloud. The emerging mobile edge computing technology will be a promising solution of this challenge of IPP-LISS. In this paper, we implement IPP-LISS in the cloud, and then, based on the implementation result, we discuss applying the mobile edge computing technology to the IPP-LISS application.

Estimating Interregional Trade Coefficient of Service Industry using the Gravity Model (중력모형을 이용한 서비스업의 지역간 교역계수 추정)

  • Yun, Kap-Sik;Kim, Jae-Koo
    • Journal of the Economic Geographical Society of Korea
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    • v.13 no.3
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    • pp.457-469
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    • 2010
  • The study aims to estimate interregional trade coefficient of service industry using the gravity model. The gravity model has been widely used for prediction of the level of human interaction between two regions which is positively related to attraction of them and negatively related to the distance between them. To apply the gravity model for explaining the interregional trade flow of service industry, the choice of proper proxy variables which represent a dependent variable and independent variables is most important. However, the literature shows that there are few studies on this issue. Four models concerned to the choice of proxy variables are considered. Finally, this paper employs the least-squares regression analysis to test the model's goodness-of-fit, and suggests the most appropriate model based on the result from the analysis. The result shows that the interregional trade of service industry in regional input-output table developed by The Bank of Korea is desirable as a dependent variable, the service industry output of export region, the population of import region, and the spatial distance between regions are desirable as independent variables.

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Development of Tree Stem Weight Equations for Larix kaempferi in Central Region of South Korea (중부지역 일본잎갈나무의 수간중량 추정식 개발)

  • Ko, Chi-Ung;Son, Yeong-Mo;Kang, Jin-Taek;Kim, Dong-Geun
    • Journal of Korean Society of Forest Science
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    • v.107 no.2
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    • pp.184-192
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    • 2018
  • In this study was implemented to develop tree stem weight prediction equation of Larix kaempferi in central region by selecting a standard site, taking into account of diameter and position of the local trees. Fifty five sample trees were selected in total. By utilizing actual data of the sample trees, 11 models were compared and analyzed in order to estimate four different kinds of weights which include fresh weight, ovendry outside bark weight, ovendry inside bark weight and merchantable weight. As to estimate its weight, the study has classified its model according to three parameters: DBH, DBH and height, and volume. The optimal model was chosen by comparing the performance of model using the fit index and standard error of estimate and residual distribution. As a result, the formula utilizing DBH (Variable 1) is $W=a+bD+cD^2$ (3) and its fit index was 90~92%. The formula for DBH and height (Variable 2) is $W=aD^bH^C$ (8) and its fit index was 97~98%. In summation, Variable 2 model showed higher fitness than Variable 1 model. Moreover, fit index of formula for total volume and merchantable volume (W=aV) showed high rate of 98~99%, as well as resulting 7.7-17.5 with SEE and 8.0-10.0 with CV(%) which lead to predominately high fitness in conclusion. This study is expected to provide information on weights for single trees and furthermore, to be used as a basic study for weight of stand unit and biomass estimation equations.

Prediction of Unsteady Turbulent Flow over a Square Cylinder using Two-Equation Turbulence Models (2-방정식 난류모델을 이용한 정사각주 주위 비정상 난류 유동의 예측)

  • Lee Sangsan
    • 한국전산유체공학회:학술대회논문집
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    • 1995.10a
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    • pp.31-36
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    • 1995
  • 비유선형의 물체 주위의 유동은 정체유동, 경계층 박리 및 주기적 와열 생성 등의 복잡한 유동현상이 공존한다. 본 연구에서는 비교적 단순한 형상인 정사각주 주위의 비정상 난류 유동을 2-방정식 와점성 난류모델인 표준 $k-{\varepsilon}$ 모델과 RNG $k-{\varepsilon}$ 모델을 이용하여 예측할 수 있는지를 검증하였다. 정교하게 수행된 최근의 실험과 대와류모사(LES)의 결과를 검증을 위한 비교의 자료로 삼았다. 적절한 난류모델의 선정과 더불어 시간 정확도, 공간 정확도 및 대류항 처리법 등이 해석결과에 미치는 영향도 살펴보았다. 기존의 표준 $k-{\varepsilon}$모델은 정체점 부근에서 난류 운동에너지를 과도하게 생성하는 근본적인 문제점 때문에 실험 및 LES의 결과를 제대로 예측할 수 없었다. 난류운동에너지의 초과 예측에 따른 운동량의 과도한 혼합으로 인해, 항력계수 및 양력계수의 비정상성 뿐 아니라 평균 항력계수도 부정확하게 예측하였다. RNG $k-{\varepsilon}$ 모델을 사용한 경우에는 정체점 주위 유동현상의 예측이 상당히 향상되어 항력계수 및 양력계수의 평균치, 진폭 및 비정상성의 주기 등을 정확하게 예측하는 것이 가능하였다. 그러나 이 경우에도 예측의 정확도가 시간 증분과 격자의 크기 및 대류항 처리법등에 영향을 받으며, 특별히 대류항 처리법에 상당히 민감하게 변하는 것을 알 수 있었다. 향상된 유동예측은 RNG $k-{\varepsilon}$ 모델의 난류에너지 소산율 방정식의 개선된 항이 과도하게 생성된 난류에너지를 정체점 부근에서 제거하기 때문에 가능하다는 것을 알 수 있었다.의 20세 이하 골절 및 탈구가$30.3\%까지 감소하게되어 년도가 증가함에 따라 청장년 층에 비하여 소아골절 및 탈구가 전체적으로 감소하는 경향을 보였다. 스키골절의 부위별 발생빈도는 1990년 이전까지 하지골절 및 탈구가 많았으나 이후 점차 상지의 골절 탈구가 증가하였다 하지에서 가장 많은 골절은 경골 골절이었으며, 경골골절은 회전력에 의한 나선형골절이 $76.5\%로 가장 많았고 년도에 따른 변화는 보이지 않았다. 스키손상의 발생빈도는 초기에 비하여 점차 감소하는 경향을 보였으며, 손상의 특성도 부위별, 연령별로 다양한 변화를 나타내었다.해가능성을 가진 균이 상당수 검출되므로 원료의 수송, 김치의 제조 및 유통과정에서 병원균에 대한 오염방지에 유의하여야 할 것이다. 확인할 수 있었다. 이상의 결과에 의하면 고농도의 유기물이 함유된 음식물쓰레기는 Hybrid Anaerobic Reactor (HAR)를 이용하여 HRT 30일 정도에서 충분히 직접 혐기성처리가 가능하며, 이때 발생된 $CH_{4}$를 회수하여 이용하면 대체에너지원으로 활용 가치가 높은 것으로 판단된다./207), $99.2\%$(238/240), $98.5\%$(133/135) 및 $100\%$ (313)였다. 각각 두 개의 요골동맥과 우내흉동맥에서 부분협착이나 경쟁혈류가 관찰되었다. 결론: 동맥 도관만을 이용한 Off pump CABG를 시행하여 감염의 위험성을 증가시키지 않으면서 영구적인 신경학적 합병증을 일으키지 않았고 좋은 혈관 개존율을 보여주었다. 따라서 동맥 도관을 이용한 Off pump CABG는 관상동맥의 협착의 정도에 따라 효율적으로 시행

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Characteristics of Sediment and Flow with Channel Patterns in Alluvial Rivers (충적하천(沖積河川)의 수로양상(水路樣相)에 따른 유사(流砂) 및 흐름특성(特性))

  • Lee, Jong Seok;Lee, Dae Cheol;Pai, Dong Man;Cha, Young Kee
    • KSCE Journal of Civil and Environmental Engineering Research
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    • v.14 no.5
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    • pp.1177-1189
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    • 1994
  • This paper aims to develop the numerical model for prediction of the channel migration by analyzing of sediment and flow characteristics with patterns of channel in alluvial rivers. Flow in rivers constitutes to be the meandering or the braided form and rarely straight channel through morphologically stable patterns with mutual actions between the flowing water and bed materials. In order to develop the model for simulation of the channel migration, the channels are divided into two types with positive or negative sign by the direction of curvature radius of the centerline channel ($r_c$). That is, the single bend-channel consists of only one curvature of positive or negative sign and the multi-bend channel consists of two more curvatures of positive or negative sign, respectively. The model analyzes the sediment and flow characteristics under the influence of superelevation, spiral motion, irregularity in bed topography and depth-averaged velocity of channels. For reliability of this model, the single bend-channel and the multi bend channel are compared with experiment data in other models and the measured field data in the Keum-River, respectively. As a result, the both com parisians turn out to be excellent.

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Study on the Meaning of Four Subjects and Four Species as a Disease-Prediction Data and Diagnostic Value on Ante-Disease (질병예측자료로서 사과(四科) . 사류형상(四類形象)의 의의와 미병진단적 가치 연구)

  • Kim, Jong-Won;Jeon, Soo-Hyung;Lee, In-Seon;Kim, Kyu-Kon;Lee, Yong-Tae;Kim, Kyung-Chul;Eom, Hyun-Sup;Chi, Gyoo-Yong
    • Journal of Physiology & Pathology in Korean Medicine
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    • v.23 no.2
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    • pp.325-330
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    • 2009
  • In Korea, medical diagnostic equipments and biochemical examination can not be used in order for diagnosing sub-healthy state or ante-disease state in oriental medicine clinic. So morphic analogical method used in oriental medicine can be a good tool as a disease-predictable signs in order to enable preventive diagnosis and therapy. Therefore the four geometrical subjects; Essence, Pneuma, Spirit, Blood(四科;精氣紳血) and the four taxonomical species; Pisces, Quadruped, Aves, Carapaces(四類;魚走鳥甲) are chosen as morphic models in this paper. The differences of two classifying methods with four subjects and four species were as follows. The diagnostic category was meta-medical and synthetic against medical specific. The diagnostic object was body in contrast with face. They were able to be applicant in psychology and classification of characteristics against diagnostics and therapeutics directly in oriental medicine. The theoretical basis was basic diagrams of four unit-fluids of body and morphological analogy with four animal species respectively. And the therapeutic aims were systemic pathogenesis following five phase theory against congestion and deficiency of Essence, Pneuma, Spirit, Blood. The four subjects and four species are mixed each other practically in clinic. But it should be used limitedly because of the above reasons described and must divide the principal and secondary factors and follow the pathology of principal shape factor. In order to improve the diagnostic value of ante-disease state, the discriminable standards, measurement methods, limit of interrelating interpretation and the criteria of abnormal disproportion were needed to be defined more clearly in advance.

A Pulse-Echo Testing Model for Partially Damaged Ultrasonic Transducers (부분 손상을 입은 초음파 탐촉자의 펄스-에코 시험 모델)

  • Song, Sung-Jin
    • Journal of the Korean Society for Nondestructive Testing
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    • v.16 no.2
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    • pp.95-108
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    • 1996
  • In ultrasonic testing, flaw signal from which quantitative information on flaws is determined is influenced by 3 factors : (1) the incident wavefield.produced by the transducer, (2) the scattered waves produced by flaws, and (3) the reception of the scattered waves back at the transducer. So even small changes in transducer performance due to aging or unexpected damages can produce the changes in the characteristics of flaw signal and finally the changes in the quantitative information on flaws. Thus a reliable calibration method of transducer performance is desired. Recently, theoretical models for ultrasonic testing have been employed as reference standards for the calibration of transducers which are considered as circular planar piston sources in the most of cases. But this simplification cannot be applied to partially damaged transducer which has lost their symmetry in performance, even not in appearance. Unfortunately there has been no reliable practical model which can be used for the calibration of partially damaged transducers. Here a pulse-echo testing model for partially damaged ultrasonic transducers was developed with experimental verification. The experimental responses agree very well with the theoretical prediction. So we expect that this model can be served as a theoretical reference standards for transducer calibration.

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