• Title/Summary/Keyword: Prediction modeling

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Intercomparison of Change Point Analysis Methods for Identification of Inhomogeneity in Rainfall Series and Applications (강우자료의 비동질성 규명을 위한 변동점 분석기법의 상호비교 및 적용)

  • Lee, Sangho;Kim, Sang Ug;Lee, Yeong Seob;Sung, Jang Hyun
    • Journal of Korea Water Resources Association
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    • v.47 no.8
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    • pp.671-684
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    • 2014
  • Change point analysis is a efficient tool to understand the fundamental information in hydro-meteorological data such as rainfall, discharge, temperature etc. Especially, this fundamental information to change points to future rainfall data identified by reasonable detection skills can affect the prediction of flood and drought occurrence because well detected change points provide a key to resolve the non-stationary or inhomogeneous problem by climate change. Therefore, in this study, the comparative study to assess the performance of the 3 change point detection skills, cumulative sum (CUSUM) method, Bayesian change point (BCP) method, and segmentation by dynamic programming (DP) was performed. After assessment of the performance of the proposed detection skills using the 3 types of the synthetic series, the 2 reasonable detection skills were applied to the observed and future rainfall data at the 5 rainfall gauges in South Korea. Finally, it was suggested that BCP (with 0.9 posterior probability) could be best detection skill and DP could be reasonably recommended through the comparative study. Also it was suggested that BCP (with 0.9 posterior probability) and DP detection skills to find some change points could be reasonable at the North-eastern part in South Korea. In future, the results in this study can be efficiently used to resolve the non-stationary problems in hydrological modeling considering inhomogeneity or nonstationarity.

A Study on Development of the Tidal Database for the Philippines (필리핀을 위한 조석 데이터베이스 개발에 관한 연구)

  • PARK, Eung-Hyun;AHN, Se-Jin;SHIM, Moon-Bo;JEON, Hae-Yeon;KANG, Ho-Yun;KIM, Dae-Hyun
    • Journal of the Korean Association of Geographic Information Studies
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    • v.22 no.4
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    • pp.158-168
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    • 2019
  • Korea Hydrographic and Oceanographic Agency(KHOA) carried out a research project named 'Marine Fisheries Infrastructure Construction and Technology Training for the Philippines' as part of the 1st Official Development Assistance(ODA) from 2015 to 2018. It is preparing for the 2nd ODA project which will begin in 2020. Besides, recently, the Philippines is paying attention to marine territory management and response capability due to problems such as the sea-level rise and coastal erosion caused by climate change. Therefore, before 2nd ODA to the Philippines, this study analyzed the vertical ocean model on the vertical datum in Korea and suggests the direction of development of the vertical ocean modeling system for the vertical datum in the Philippines using the observed data from the permanent tide station which was built by the Philippines ODA research project over the last four years. Moreover, as a pilot study, the Sulu Sea in the Philippines was selected and analyzed by harmonic analysis method. At each tide station, constants for correction had been computed. And the grid-based tidal model was constructed based on this study. As a result of the study, similar tidal characteristic were observed when the prediction and the measured tide were compared by applying the constants for correction between two station in the sea area with similar tidal level. These results could be used as basic data for the 2nd ODA to the Philippines, and contributed to construct and maintain a close cooperation and friendship between Korea and the Philippines.

Real-Time Forecast of Rainfall Impact on Urban Inundation (강우자료와 연계한 도시 침수지역의 사전 영향예보)

  • KEUM, Ho-Jun;KIM, Hyun-Il;HAN, Kun-Yeun
    • Journal of the Korean Association of Geographic Information Studies
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    • v.21 no.3
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    • pp.76-92
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    • 2018
  • This study aimed to establish database of rainfall inundation area by rainfall scenarios and conduct a real time prediction for urban flood mitigation. the data leaded model was developed for the mapping of inundated area with rainfall forecast data provided by korea meteorological agency. for the construction of data leaded model, 1d-2d modeling was applied to Gangnam area, where suffered from severe flooding event including september, 2010. 1d-2d analysis result agree with observed in term of flood depth. flood area and flood occurring report which maintained by NDMS(national disaster management system). The fitness ratio of the NDMS reporting point and 2D flood analysis results was revealed to be 69.5%. Flood forecast chart was created using pre-flooding database. It was analyzed to have 70.3% of fitness in case of flood forecast chart of 70mm, and 72.0% in case of 80mm flood forecast chart. Using the constructed pre-flood area database, it is possible to present flood forecast chart information with rainfall forecast, and it can be used to secure the leading time during flood predictions and warning.

The Effects of Past Success on Performance: The Mediating Role of Self-Efficacy, Burnout, and Engagement (과거성공이 성과에 미치는 영향 : 자아효능감, 소진, 몰입의 매개역할을 중심으로)

  • Im, Chang-Hee
    • Management & Information Systems Review
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    • v.29 no.1
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    • pp.49-78
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    • 2010
  • Traditionally, self-efficacy, burnout and engagement are defined as work related states of mind, and formally speaking, students are not employees. But, we assume that from a psychological perspective, student core activities can be considered work. Therefore, based on SCT(social cognitive theory), we examine the mediating role of self-efficacy in the prediction of student burnout and engagement, and also the mediation of burnout and engagement between self-efficacy and performance(GPA). There is no research to date wether there would be mediating role of these variables between past success and performance. These effects were analysed in the context of mediating role of the variables in a university in a sample of 438 students. This study utilized a convenience sample drawn from various major scholar area. Results of structural equation modeling analyses were consist with a full mediation model in which academic past success predicts self-efficacy, which in turn, predicts student burnout and engagement. Also our proposed model showed that burnout and engagement are partial or full mediating variables between self-efficacy and performance. Our study's findings provide evidence that engagement fully accounted for the relationship between self-efficacy and performance, and burnout partially explained the relationships. These findings aligns with the general theorizing supported by JD-R model and SCT(social cognitive theory). More specifically, it builds on the JD-R literature as it tests one of the proposed mechanisms in the relationship between job resources and work engagement. Implications of study are discussed, together with limitations and suggestions for future research.

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Application of Indicator Geostatistics for Probabilistic Uncertainty and Risk Analyses of Geochemical Data (지화학 자료의 확률론적 불확실성 및 위험성 분석을 위한 지시자 지구통계학의 응용)

  • Park, No-Wook
    • Journal of the Korean earth science society
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    • v.31 no.4
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    • pp.301-312
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    • 2010
  • Geochemical data have been regarded as one of the important environmental variables in the environmental management. Since they are often sampled at sparse locations, it is important not only to predict attribute values at unsampled locations, but also to assess the uncertainty attached to the prediction for further analysis. The main objective of this paper is to exemplify how indicator geostatistics can be effectively applied to geochemical data processing for providing decision-supporting information as well as spatial distribution of the geochemical data. A whole geostatistical analysis framework, which includes probabilistic uncertainty modeling, classification and risk analysis, was illustrated through a case study of cadmium mapping. A conditional cumulative distribution function (ccdf) was first modeled by indicator kriging, and then e-type estimates and conditional variance were computed for spatial distribution of cadmium and quantitative uncertainty measures, respectively. Two different classification criteria such as a probability thresholding and an attribute thresholding were applied to delineate contaminated and safe areas. Finally, additional sampling locations were extracted from the coefficient of variation that accounts for both the conditional variance and the difference between attribute values and thresholding values. It is suggested that the indicator geostatistical framework illustrated in this study be a useful tool for analyzing any environmental variables including geochemical data for decision-making in the presence of uncertainty.

Material Properties and Structural Characteristics on Flexure of Steel Fiber-Reinforced Ultra-High-Performance Concrete (강섬유 보강 초고성능 콘크리트의 재료특성 및 휨 거동 역학적 특성)

  • Kim, Kyoung-Chul;Yang, In-Hwan;Joh, Chang-Bin
    • Journal of the Korea Concrete Institute
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    • v.28 no.2
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    • pp.177-185
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    • 2016
  • This paper concerns the flexural behavior of steel fiber-reinforced ultra-high-performance concrete (UHPC) beams with compressive strength of 150 MPa. It presents experimental research results of hybrid steel fiber-reinforced UHPC beams with steel fiber content of 1.5% by volume and steel reinforcement ratio of less than 0.02. This study aims at investigating of compressive and tensile behavior of UHPC to perform a reasonable prediction for flexural capacity of UHPC beams. Tensile behavior modeling was performed using load-crack mouth opening displacement relationship obtained from bending test. The experimental results show that steel fiber-reinforced UHPC is in favor of cracking resistance and ductility of beams. The ductility indices range from 1.6 to 3.0, which means high ductility of hybrid steel fiber-reinforced UHPC. Test results and numerical analysis results for the moment-curvature relationship are compared. Though the numerical analysis results for the bending capacity of the UHPC beam without rebar is larger than test result, the overall comparative results show that the bending capacity of steel fiber-reinforced UHPC beams with compressive strength of 150 MPa can be predicted by using the established method in this paper.

Flexural Capacity of Precast Concrete Triple Ribs Slab (프리캐스트 콘크리트 트리플 리브 슬래브의 휨성능)

  • Hwang, Seung-bum;Seo, Soo-yeon;Lee, Kang-cheol;Lee, Seok-hyun
    • Journal of the Korea Concrete Institute
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    • v.28 no.1
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    • pp.3-11
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    • 2016
  • The concern about hollow core PC slab has been increased to improve the workability during a construction of building by reducing self weight of structural members. In this manner, recently, TRS (Tripple Ribs Slab) was developed as a new type of half PC slab system. TRS member consists of the triple webs and the bottom flange prestressed by strands. The slab system is completed by casting of topping concrete on the TRS after filling styrofoam between the webs. This paper, presents a flexural experiment to investigate the flexural capacity of the TRS. Five full scale TRS members were made and tested under simple support condition to be failed by flexure and their strength was evaluated by code equations; the variables in the test are the depth and the presence of topping or raised spot formed when slip-forming. In addition, a nonlinear sectional analysis was performed for the specimens and the result was compared with the test results. From the study, it was found that the TRS has enough flexural strength and ductility to resist the design loads and its strength can be suitably predicted by using code equations. The raised spot did not affect the strength so that the spot need not to be removed by doing additional work. For the more accurate prediction of TRS's flexural behavior by using nonlinear sectional analysis, it is recommended to consider the concrete's brittle property due to slip-forming process in the modeling.

Failure Pressure Prediction of Composite T-Joint for Hydrodynamic Ram Test (수압램 시험을 위한 복합재 T-Joint의 파손 압력 예측)

  • Kim, Dong-Geon;Go, Eun-Su;Kim, In-Gul;Woo, Kyung-Sik;Kim, Jong-Heon
    • Composites Research
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    • v.29 no.2
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    • pp.53-59
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    • 2016
  • Aircraft wing structure is used as a fuel tank containing the fluid. Fuel tank and joint parts are consists of composite structure. Hydrodynamic Ram(HRAM) effect occurs when the high speed object pass through the aircraft wing or explosion and the high pressure are generated in the fuel tank by HRAM effect. High pressure can cause failure of the fuel tank and the joint parts as well as the aircraft wing structure. To ensure the aircraft survivability design, we shall examine the behavior of the joint parts in HRAM effect. In this study, static tensile tests were conducted on four kind of the composite T-Joints. The failure behavior of the composite T-joint was examined by strain gauges and high speed camera. We examine the validity of the Finite Element Modeling by comparing the results of FEA and static tensile tests. The failure stresses and failure pressure of the composite T-Joint were calculated by FEA.

Prediction Model of Fatigue in Women with Rheumatoid Arthritis (여성 류마티스 관절염 환자의 피로 예측 모형)

  • Lee, Kyung-Sook;Lee, Eun-Ok
    • Journal of muscle and joint health
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    • v.8 no.1
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    • pp.27-50
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    • 2001
  • Rheumatoid arthritis is a chronic systemic autoimmune disease. Although the joints are the major loci of the disease activity, fatigue is a common extraarticular symptom that exists in all gradations of rheumatoid arthritis. Fatigue is defined as a subjective sense of generalized tiredness or exhaustion and has multiple dimensions. Therefore fatigue is a common and frequent problem for those with rheumatoid arthritis. In fact, 88-100% of individuals with rheumatoid arthritis experience fatigue. Especially the degree of fatigue is higher in women than men with rheumatoid arthritis. Despite the importance of fatigue among the patients with rheumatoid arthritis, the mechanism that leads to fatigue in rheumatoid arthritis is not completely understood. This study was intended to test and validate a model to predict fatigue in women with rheumatoid arthritis. Especially it was intended to identify the direct and indirect effects of the variables of pain, disability, depression, sleep disturbance, morning stiffness, and symptom duration to fatigue. Data were collected by questionnaires including Multidimensional Assesment of Fatigue(Tack, 1991), numeric scale of pain, graphic scale of joints, Ritchie Articular Index, Korean Health Assessment Questionnaire(Bae, et al., 1998), Inventory of Function Status(Tulman, et al., 1991), Center for Epidemiologic Studies-Depression, and Korean Sleep Scale(Oh, et al 1998). The sample consisted of 345 women with a mean duration of rheumatoid arthritis for 10.06 years and a mean age of 49.64 years. SPSS win and Win LISREL were used for the data analysis. Structural equation modeling revealed the overall fit of the model. Pain predicted fatigue directly and indirectly through disability, depression, and sleep disturbance. Disability, sleep disturbance predicted fatigue only directly, while depression only indirectly through disability and sleep disturbance. Also morning stiffness and symptom duration predicted fatigue through disability and depression. All predictors accounted for 65% of the variance of fatigue. Depression, pain, and disability predicted sleep disturbance. Depression had reciprocal relationship with disability and they both were predicted by pain directly and indirectly. In summary, pain, depression, disability, sleep disturbance, morning stiffness, and symptom duration contributed to the fatigue of patients with rheumatoid arthritis. The best predictor of fatigue was pain. This finding indicates that the modification of pain, depression, disability, sleep disturbance, morning stiffness could be nursing intervention for relief or prevention of fatigue.

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Regional Realtime Ocean Tide and Storm-surge Simulation for the South China Sea (남중국해 지역 실시간 해양 조석 및 폭풍해일 시뮬레이션)

  • Kim, Kyeong Ok;Choi, Byung Ho;Lee, Han Soo;Yuk, Jin-Hee
    • Journal of Korean Society of Coastal and Ocean Engineers
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    • v.30 no.2
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    • pp.69-83
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    • 2018
  • The South China Sea (SCS) is a typical marginal sea characterized with the deep basin, shelf break, shallow shelf, many straits, and complex bathymetry. This study investigated the tidal characteristics and propagation, and reproduced typhoon-induced storm surge in this region using the regional real-time tide-surge model, which was based on the unstructured grid, resolving in detail the region of interest and forced by tide at the open boundary and by wind and air pressure at the surface. Typhoon Haiyan, which occurred in 2013 and caused great damage in the Philippines, was chosen as a case study to simulate typhoon's impact. Amplitudes and phases of four major constituents were reproduced reasonably in general, and the tidal distributions of four constituents were similar to the previous studies. The modelled tide seemed to be within the acceptable levels, considering it was difficult to reproduce the tide in this region based on the previous studies. The free oscillation experiment results described well the feature of tide that the diurnal tide is prevailing in the SCS. The tidal residual current and total energy dissipation were discussed to understand the tidal and sedimentary environments. The storm-surge caused by typhoon Haiyan was reasonably simulated using this modeling system. This study established the regional real-time barotropic tide/water level prediction system for the South China Sea including the seas around the Philippines through the validation of the model and the understanding of tidal characteristics.