• Geomechanics and Engineering
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• v.33 no.2
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• pp.183-194
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• 2023

This study presents the prediction of the California bearing ratio (CBR) of coarse- and fine-grained soils using artificial intelligence technology. The group method of data handling (GMDH) algorithm, an artificial neural network-based model, was used in the prediction of the CBR values. In the design of the prediction models, various combinations of independent input variables for both coarse- and fine-grained soils have been used. The results obtained from the designed GMDH-type neural networks (GMDH-type NN) were compared with other regression models, such as linear, support vector, and multilayer perception regression methods. The performance of models was evaluated with a regression coefficient (R²), root-mean-square error (RMSE), and mean absolute error (MAE). The results showed that GMDH-type NN algorithm had higher performance than other regression methods in the prediction of CBR value for coarse- and fine-grained soils. The GMDH model had an R² of 0.938, RMSE of 1.87, and MAE of 1.48 for the input variables {G, S, and MDD} in coarse-grained soils. For fine-grained soils, it had an R² of 0.829, RMSE of 3.02, and MAE of 2.40, when using the input variables {LL, PI, MDD, and OMC}. The performance evaluations revealed that the GMDH-type NN models were effective in predicting CBR values of both coarse- and fine-grained soils.

• Journal of Navigation and Port Research
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• v.48 no.2
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• pp.109-115
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• 2024

To develop a shipping company insolvency prediction model, we sampled shipping companies that closed between 2005 and 2023. In addition, a closed company and a normal company with similar asset size were selected as a paired sample. For this study, data of a total of 82 companies, including 42 closed companies and 42 general companies, were obtained. These data were randomly divided into a training set (2/3 of data) and a testing set (1/3 of data). Training data were used to develop the model while test data were used to measure the accuracy of the model. In this study, a prediction model for Korean shipping insolvency was developed using financial ratio variables frequently used in previous studies. First, using the LASSO technique, main variables out of 24 independent variables were reduced to 9. Next, we set insolvent companies to 1 and normal companies to 0 and fitted logistic regression, LDA and QDA model. As a result, the accuracy of the prediction model was 82.14% for the QDA model, 78.57% for the logistic regression model, and 75.00% for the LDA model. In addition, variables 'Current ratio', 'Interest expenses to sales', 'Total assets turnover', and 'Operating income to sales' were analyzed as major variables affecting corporate insolvency.

• KSCE Journal of Civil and Environmental Engineering Research
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• v.35 no.2
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• pp.465-470
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• 2015

The curing of epoxy asphalt mixture depends on the chemical reaction of epoxy resin and the curing agent. The curing level of epoxy asphalt mixture needs to be predicted in order to decide traffic opening time and to establish further construction plans. In this study, chemical analysis of the prediction model was executed to expand the applicability of the previous prediction model. Consequently, the curing level prediction model of epoxy asphalt concrete mixture was proposed using the concentration ratio and the acid value ratio. According to the results of outdoor curing experiments, the final prediction model showed that the correlation coefficient is greater than 0.971. Precise prediction results of different composition epoxy asphalt were obtained by reflecting the chemical composition ratios in the curing level prediction model.

• Journal of the Korea Academia-Industrial cooperation Society
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• v.17 no.10
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• pp.520-526
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• 2016

This study aims to develop a distress prediction model, in order to evaluate the distress prediction power for first-class hotels and to calculate the average financial ratio in the Seoul area by using the financial ratios of hotels in 2015. The sample data was collected from 19 first-class hotels in Seoul and the financial ratios extracted from 14 of these 19 hotels. The results show firstly that the seven financial ratios, viz. the current ratio, total borrowings and bonds payable to total assets, interest coverage ratio to operating income, operating income to sales, net income to stockholders' equity, ratio of cash flows from operating activities to sales and total assets turnover, enable the top-level corporations to be discriminated from the failed corporations and, secondly, by using these seven financial ratios, a discriminant function which classifies the corporations into top-level and failed ones is estimated by linear multiple discriminant analysis. The accuracy of prediction of this discriminant capability turned out to be 87.9%. The accuracy of the estimates obtained by discriminant analysis indicates that the distress prediction model's distress prediction power is 78.95%. According to the analysis results, hotel management groups which administrate low level corporations need to focus on the classification of these seven financial ratios. Furthermore, hotel corporations have very different financial structures and failure prediction indicators from other industries. In accordance with this finding, for the development of credit evaluation systems for such hotel corporations, there is a need for systems to be developed that reflect hotel corporations' financial features.

• Journal of the Korea Academia-Industrial cooperation Society
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• v.20 no.11
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• pp.151-156
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• 2019

This study aims to develop a distress prediction model and to evaluate distress prediction power for the food services industry by using 2017 food service industry financial ratios. Samples were collected from 46 food service industries, and we extracted 14 financial ratios from them. The results show that, first, there are eight ratios (financial ratio, current ratio, operating income to sales, net income to assets, ratio of cash flows, income to stockholders' equity, rate of operating income, and total asset turnover) that can discriminate failures in food service industries and the top-level food service industries. Second, by using these eight financial ratios, the logit function classifies the top-level food service industries, and failures in the food service industry can be estimated by using logit analysis. The verification results as to accuracy in the estimated logit analysis indicate that the model's distress-prediction power is 89.1%.

• Journal of the Korea Institute of Building Construction
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• v.16 no.5
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• pp.437-445
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• 2016

Since typhoon is a critical meteorological disaster, some advanced countries have developed typhoon damage prediction models. However, although South Korea is vulnerable to typhoons, there is still shortage of study in typhoon damage prediction model reflecting the vulnerability of domestic building and features of disaster. Moreover, many studies have been only focused on the characteristics and typhoon and regional characteristics without various influencing factors. Therefore, the objective of this study is to analyze typhoon damage by path and develop to prediction model for building damage ratio by using multiple regression analysis. This study classifies the building damages by typhoon paths to identify influencing factors then the correlation analysis is conducted between building damage ratio and their factors. In addition, a multiple regression analysis is applied to develop a typhoon damage prediction model. Four categories; typhoon information, geography, construction environment, and socio-economy, are used as the independent variables. The results of this study will be used as fundamental material for the typhoon damage prediction model development of South Korea.

• Journal of Korean Institute of Industrial Engineers
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• v.40 no.1
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• pp.8-17
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• 2014

In this research, we employed various data mining techniques to build predictive models for win-loss prediction in Korean professional baseball games. The historical data containing information about players and teams was obtained from the official materials that are provided by the KBO website. Using the collected raw data, we additionally prepared two more types of dataset, which are in ratio and binary format respectively. Dividing away-team's records by the records of the corresponding home-team generated the ratio dataset, while the binary dataset was obtained by comparing the record values. We applied seven classification techniques to three (raw, ratio, and binary) datasets. The employed data mining techniques are decision tree, random forest, logistic regression, neural network, support vector machine, linear discriminant analysis, and quadratic discriminant analysis. Among 21(= 3 datasets${\times}$7 techniques) prediction scenarios, the most accurate model was obtained from the random forest technique based on the binary dataset, which prediction accuracy was 84.14%. It was also observed that using the ratio and the binary dataset helped to build better prediction models than using the raw data. From the capability of variable selection in decision tree, random forest, and stepwise logistic regression, we found that annual salary, earned run, strikeout, pitcher's winning percentage, and four balls are important winning factors of a game. This research is distinct from existing studies in that we used three different types of data and various data mining techniques for win-loss prediction in Korean professional baseball games.

• Proceedings of the Korea Concrete Institute Conference
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• 2001.11a
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• pp.885-890
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• 2001

For the shear strength prediction of reinforced concrete beams, this paper considered the bending moment effect. Experimental results of the thirty-seven reinforced concrete beams were compared with analytical results by the FA-STM, TATM and TATM considered bending moment effect. While Ratios of test results to analytical results by using the truss models does not considered the bending moment effect decreased as shear span ratio increased, those by using the proposed method considered that were almost constant regardless of the increase of the shear span ratio. Predicted results obtained from proposed method agreed well with the experimental results.

• Journal of The Korean Society of Agricultural Engineers
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• v.48 no.4
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• pp.51-57
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• 2006

This study was carried out to investigate the soil water characteristic curve and prediction of void ratio with net stress and matric suction using the linear elastic and volumetric deformation analysis method on unsaturated silty. The unsaturated soil tests were conducted using a modified oedometer cell and specimens were prepared at water content 2 times of liquid limit and required void ratio. The axis translation technique was used to create the desired matric suctions in the samples. It is shown that soil water characteristic curve and volumetric water content were affected significantly by preconsolidation pressure. As a matric suction increases, the reduction ratio of void ratio was shown to considerably small. Also, the predicted and measured void ratio for unsaturated soils using the linear elastic and volumetric deformation analysis showed good agreement as net stress and matric suction increases.

• Computers and Concrete
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• v.3 no.5
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• pp.357-373
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• 2006

The concepts of four parameters of nominal water-cement ratio, equivalent water-cement ratio, average paste thickness, fly ash-binder ratio were introduced. It was verified that the four parameters and the mix proportion of mortar can be transformed each other. The behaviors (strength, workability, et al.) of mortar primarily determined by the mix proportion of mortar now depend on the four parameters. The prediction models of strength and workability of mortar were built based on artificial neural networks (ANNs). The calculation models of average paste thickness and equivalent water-cement ratio of mortar can be obtained by the reversal deduction of the two prediction models, respectively. A mortar mix proportion design algorithm was proposed. The proposed mortar mix proportion design algorithm is expected to reduce the number of trial and error, save cost, laborers and time.