• Title/Summary/Keyword: Prediction Process Prediction Process

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Process Metamorphosis and On-Line FEM for Mathematical Modeling of Metal Rolling-Part I: Theory

  • Zamanian, A.;Nam, S.Y.;Shin, T.J.;Hwang, S.M.
    • Transactions of Materials Processing
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    • v.28 no.2
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    • pp.83-88
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    • 2019
  • This paper introduces a new concept - on-line FE model, as applied to metal rolling. The new technology allows for completion of process simulation within a tiny fraction of a second without loss of high-level prediction accuracy inherent to FEM. The three steps of an on-line FE model design namely, process metamorphosis, mesh design, and process variable design, are described in detail. The procedure is demonstrated step by step through designing actual on-line models for the prediction of the dog-bone profile in edge rolling. The validity and prediction accuracy of the on-line FE models are analyzed and discussed.

The Process and Example on the Prediction of Lighting Energy Savings for Daylight Responsive Dimming Systems Application (주광이용 조광제어시스템의 적용성 향상을 위한 조명 에너지 절감량 예측 프로세스 개발 및 적용사례)

  • Hong, Seong-Kwon;Park, Byoung-Chul;Choi, An-Seop;Lee, Jeong-Ho
    • Journal of the Korean Institute of Illuminating and Electrical Installation Engineers
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    • v.22 no.12
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    • pp.10-19
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    • 2008
  • Daylight responsive dimming systems are energy saving systems using available daylight. It is not popular to be adopted in buildings because of blocked daylight by shading systems. Therefore, both daylight responsive dimming systems and automated roller shading systems should be integrated. In this research, prediction process of yearly lighting energy savings is developed for application integrated systems in buildings, and then the process is applied to an example building. The predicted data which are yearly lighting energy savings using developed process in a building are useful as a part of feasibility study for determination of application of such integrated systems.

Exploring process prediction based on deep learning: Focusing on dynamic recurrent neural networks (딥러닝 기반의 프로세스 예측에 관한 연구: 동적 순환신경망을 중심으로)

  • Kim, Jung-Yeon;Yoon, Seok-Joon;Lee, Bo-Kyoung
    • The Journal of Information Systems
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    • v.27 no.4
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    • pp.115-128
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    • 2018
  • Purpose The purpose of this study is to predict future behaviors of business process. Specifically, this study tried to predict the last activities of process instances. It contributes to overcoming the limitations of existing approaches that they do not accurately reflect the actual behavior of business process and it requires a lot of effort and time every time they are applied to specific processes. Design/methodology/approach This study proposed a novel approach based using deep learning in the form of dynamic recurrent neural networks. To improve the accuracy of our prediction model based on the approach, we tried to adopt the latest techniques including new initialization functions(Xavier and He initializations). The proposed approach has been verified using real-life data of a domestic small and medium-sized business. Findings According to the experiment result, our approach achieves better prediction accuracy than the latest approach based on the static recurrent neural networks. It is also proved that much less effort and time are required to predict the behavior of business processes.

A Methodology of Customer Churn Prediction based on Two-Dimensional Loyalty Segmentation (이차원 고객충성도 세그먼트 기반의 고객이탈예측 방법론)

  • Kim, Hyung Su;Hong, Seung Woo
    • Journal of Intelligence and Information Systems
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    • v.26 no.4
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    • pp.111-126
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    • 2020
  • Most industries have recently become aware of the importance of customer lifetime value as they are exposed to a competitive environment. As a result, preventing customers from churn is becoming a more important business issue than securing new customers. This is because maintaining churn customers is far more economical than securing new customers, and in fact, the acquisition cost of new customers is known to be five to six times higher than the maintenance cost of churn customers. Also, Companies that effectively prevent customer churn and improve customer retention rates are known to have a positive effect on not only increasing the company's profitability but also improving its brand image by improving customer satisfaction. Predicting customer churn, which had been conducted as a sub-research area for CRM, has recently become more important as a big data-based performance marketing theme due to the development of business machine learning technology. Until now, research on customer churn prediction has been carried out actively in such sectors as the mobile telecommunication industry, the financial industry, the distribution industry, and the game industry, which are highly competitive and urgent to manage churn. In addition, These churn prediction studies were focused on improving the performance of the churn prediction model itself, such as simply comparing the performance of various models, exploring features that are effective in forecasting departures, or developing new ensemble techniques, and were limited in terms of practical utilization because most studies considered the entire customer group as a group and developed a predictive model. As such, the main purpose of the existing related research was to improve the performance of the predictive model itself, and there was a relatively lack of research to improve the overall customer churn prediction process. In fact, customers in the business have different behavior characteristics due to heterogeneous transaction patterns, and the resulting churn rate is different, so it is unreasonable to assume the entire customer as a single customer group. Therefore, it is desirable to segment customers according to customer classification criteria, such as loyalty, and to operate an appropriate churn prediction model individually, in order to carry out effective customer churn predictions in heterogeneous industries. Of course, in some studies, there are studies in which customers are subdivided using clustering techniques and applied a churn prediction model for individual customer groups. Although this process of predicting churn can produce better predictions than a single predict model for the entire customer population, there is still room for improvement in that clustering is a mechanical, exploratory grouping technique that calculates distances based on inputs and does not reflect the strategic intent of an entity such as loyalties. This study proposes a segment-based customer departure prediction process (CCP/2DL: Customer Churn Prediction based on Two-Dimensional Loyalty segmentation) based on two-dimensional customer loyalty, assuming that successful customer churn management can be better done through improvements in the overall process than through the performance of the model itself. CCP/2DL is a series of churn prediction processes that segment two-way, quantitative and qualitative loyalty-based customer, conduct secondary grouping of customer segments according to churn patterns, and then independently apply heterogeneous churn prediction models for each churn pattern group. Performance comparisons were performed with the most commonly applied the General churn prediction process and the Clustering-based churn prediction process to assess the relative excellence of the proposed churn prediction process. The General churn prediction process used in this study refers to the process of predicting a single group of customers simply intended to be predicted as a machine learning model, using the most commonly used churn predicting method. And the Clustering-based churn prediction process is a method of first using clustering techniques to segment customers and implement a churn prediction model for each individual group. In cooperation with a global NGO, the proposed CCP/2DL performance showed better performance than other methodologies for predicting churn. This churn prediction process is not only effective in predicting churn, but can also be a strategic basis for obtaining a variety of customer observations and carrying out other related performance marketing activities.

Optimal Solution of Classification (Prediction) Problem

  • Mohammad S. Khrisat
    • International Journal of Computer Science & Network Security
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    • v.23 no.9
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    • pp.129-133
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    • 2023
  • Classification or prediction problem is how to solve it using a specific feature to obtain the predicted class. A wheat seeds specifications 4 3 classes of seeds will be used in a prediction process. A multi linear regression will be built, and a prediction error ratio will be calculated. To enhance the prediction ratio an ANN model will be built and trained. The obtained results will be examined to show how to make a prediction tool capable to compute a predicted class number very close to the target class number.

Introduction to Gene Prediction Using HMM Algorithm

  • Kim, Keon-Kyun;Park, Eun-Sik
    • Journal of the Korean Data and Information Science Society
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    • v.18 no.2
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    • pp.489-506
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    • 2007
  • Gene structure prediction, which is to predict protein coding regions in a given nucleotide sequence, is the most important process in annotating genes and greatly affects gene analysis and genome annotation. As eukaryotic genes have more complicated structures in DNA sequences than those of prokaryotic genes, analysis programs for eukaryotic gene structure prediction have more diverse and more complicated computational models. There are Ab Initio method, Similarity-based method, and Ensemble method for gene prediction method for eukaryotic genes. Each Method use various algorithms. This paper introduce how to predict genes using HMM(Hidden Markov Model) algorithm and present the process of gene prediction with well-known gene prediction programs.

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Prediction of SST for Operational Ocean Prediction System

  • Kang, Yong-Quin
    • Ocean and Polar Research
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    • v.23 no.2
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    • pp.189-194
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    • 2001
  • A practical algorithm for prediction of the sea surface temperatures (SST)from the satellite remote sensing data is presented in this paper. The fluctuations of SST consist of deterministic normals and stochastic anomalies. Due to large thermal inertia of sea water, the SST anomalies can be modelled by autoregressive or Markov process, and its near future values can be predicted provided the recent values of SST are available. The actual SST is predicted by superposing the pre-known SST normals and the predicted SST anomalies. We applied this prediction algorithm to the NOAA AVHRR weekly SST data for 18 years (1981-1998) in the seas adjacent to Korea (115-$145^{\circ}E$, 20-$55^{\circ}N$). The algorithm is applicable not only for prediction of SST in near future but also for nowcast of SST in the cloud covered regions.

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Statistical Prediction of False Alarm Rates in Automatic Vision Inspection System (자동결함 검출시스템에서 결함크기 측정오차로 인한 오검률의 통계적 예측)

  • Joo, Young-Bok;Huh, Kyung-Moo;Park, Kil-Houm
    • Journal of Institute of Control, Robotics and Systems
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    • v.15 no.9
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    • pp.906-908
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    • 2009
  • AVI (Automatic Vision Inspection) systems automatically detect defect features and measure their sizes via camera vision. It is important to predict the performance of an AVI to meet customer's specification in advance. Also the prediction can indicate the level of current performance of an AVI system. In this paper, we propose a statistical method for prediction of false alarm rate regarding inconsistency of defect size measurement process. For this purpose, only simple experiments are needed to measure the defect sizes for certain number of times. The statistical features from the experiment are utilized in the prediction process. Therefore, the proposed method is swift and easy to implement and use. The experiment shows a close prediction compared to manual inspection results.

The Effect of Process Models on Short-term Prediction of Moving Objects for Autonomous Driving

  • Madhavan Raj;Schlenoff Craig
    • International Journal of Control, Automation, and Systems
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    • v.3 no.4
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    • pp.509-523
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    • 2005
  • We are developing a novel framework, PRIDE (PRediction In Dynamic Environments), to perform moving object prediction (MOP) for autonomous ground vehicles. The underlying concept is based upon a multi-resolutional, hierarchical approach which incorporates multiple prediction algorithms into a single, unifying framework. The lower levels of the framework utilize estimation-theoretic short-term predictions while the upper levels utilize a probabilistic prediction approach based on situation recognition with an underlying cost model. The estimation-theoretic short-term prediction is via an extended Kalman filter-based algorithm using sensor data to predict the future location of moving objects with an associated confidence measure. The proposed estimation-theoretic approach does not incorporate a priori knowledge such as road networks and traffic signage and assumes uninfluenced constant trajectory and is thus suited for short-term prediction in both on-road and off-road driving. In this article, we analyze the complementary role played by vehicle kinematic models in such short-term prediction of moving objects. In particular, the importance of vehicle process models and their effect on predicting the positions and orientations of moving objects for autonomous ground vehicle navigation are examined. We present results using field data obtained from different autonomous ground vehicles operating in outdoor environments.