한국정보시스템학회지:정보시스템연구 (The Journal of Information Systems)

  • 제27권4호
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  • Pages.115-128
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  • 2018
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  • 1229-8476(pISSN)
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  • 2733-8770(eISSN)
한국정보시스템학회 (Korea Association of Information Systems)
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딥러닝 기반의 프로세스 예측에 관한 연구: 동적 순환신경망을 중심으로

Exploring process prediction based on deep learning: Focusing on dynamic recurrent neural networks

  • 투고 : 2018.11.16
  • 심사 : 2018.12.15
  • 발행 : 2018.12.31
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초록

Purpose The purpose of this study is to predict future behaviors of business process. Specifically, this study tried to predict the last activities of process instances. It contributes to overcoming the limitations of existing approaches that they do not accurately reflect the actual behavior of business process and it requires a lot of effort and time every time they are applied to specific processes. Design/methodology/approach This study proposed a novel approach based using deep learning in the form of dynamic recurrent neural networks. To improve the accuracy of our prediction model based on the approach, we tried to adopt the latest techniques including new initialization functions(Xavier and He initializations). The proposed approach has been verified using real-life data of a domestic small and medium-sized business. Findings According to the experiment result, our approach achieves better prediction accuracy than the latest approach based on the static recurrent neural networks. It is also proved that much less effort and time are required to predict the behavior of business processes.

키워드

JBSTB0_2018_v27n4_115_f0001.png 이미지

<그림 1> 이벤트 로그의 구조

JBSTB0_2018_v27n4_115_f0002.png 이미지

<그림 2> 순환신경망 구조의 예 (2층의 3단계로 펼쳐진 LSTM 셀을 가진 다대다의 RNN 구조)

JBSTB0_2018_v27n4_115_f0003.png 이미지

<그림 3> 정적 순환신경망을 이용한 학습과 예측을 위한 첫 번째 데이터 변환 방법

JBSTB0_2018_v27n4_115_f0004.png 이미지

<그림 4> 정적 순환신경망을 이용한 학습과 예측을 위한 두 번째 데이터 변환 방법

JBSTB0_2018_v27n4_115_f0005.png 이미지

<그림 5> 동적 순환신경망을 이용한 구조

JBSTB0_2018_v27n4_115_f0006.png 이미지

<그림 5> 10개 겹의 예측 정확도 변화 (X축: 에포크, Y축: 정확도)

JBSTB0_2018_v27n4_115_f0007.png 이미지

<그림 6> 10개 겹의 비용 변화 (X축: 에포크, Y축: 비용)

<표 1> 활용 데이터 요약

JBSTB0_2018_v27n4_115_t0001.png 이미지

<표 2> 배치 크기에 따른 예측 정확도

JBSTB0_2018_v27n4_115_t0002.png 이미지

<표 3> 10겹 교차검증 적용에 따른 예측 정확도

JBSTB0_2018_v27n4_115_t0003.png 이미지

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