• Title/Summary/Keyword: Prediction Map

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Life Risk Assessment of Landslide Disaster Using Spatial Prediction Model (공간 예측 모델을 이용한 산사태 재해의 인명 위험평가)

  • Jang, Dong-Ho;Chung, C.F.
    • Journal of Environmental Impact Assessment
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    • v.15 no.6
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    • pp.373-383
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    • 2006
  • The spatial mapping of risk is very useful data in planning for disaster preparedness. This research presents a methodology for making the landslide life risk map in the Boeun area which had considerable landslide damage following heavy rain in August, 1998. We have developed a three-stage procedure in spatial data analysis not only to estimate the probability of the occurrence of the natural hazardous events but also to evaluate the uncertainty of the estimators of that probability. The three-stage procedure consists of: (i)construction of a hazard prediction map of "future" hazardous events; (ii) validation of prediction results and estimation of the probability of occurrence for each predicted hazard level; and (iii) generation of risk maps with the introduction of human life factors representing assumed or established vulnerability levels by combining the prediction map in the first stage and the estimated probabilities in the second stage with human life data. The significance of the landslide susceptibility map was evaluated by computing a prediction rate curve. It is used that the Bayesian prediction model and the case study results (the landslide susceptibility map and prediction rate curve) can be prepared for prevention of future landslide life risk map. Data from the Bayesian model-based landslide susceptibility map and prediction ratio curves were used together with human rife data to draft future landslide life risk maps. Results reveal that individual pixels had low risks, but the total risk death toll was estimated at 3.14 people. In particular, the dangerous areas involving an estimated 1/100 people were shown to have the highest risk among all research-target areas. Three people were killed in this area when landslides occurred in 1998. Thus, this risk map can deliver factual damage situation prediction to policy decision-makers, and subsequently can be used as useful data in preventing disasters. In particular, drafting of maps on landslide risk in various steps will enable one to forecast the occurrence of disasters.

Effects of measurements method for vehicle speed on thee prediction results of noise map (차량속도 측정방법이 소음지도 예측결과에 미치는 영향)

  • Park, In-Sun;Park, Sang-Kyu
    • Proceedings of the Korean Society for Noise and Vibration Engineering Conference
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    • 2006.11a
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    • pp.25-29
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    • 2006
  • Noise map presents new alternatives of noise reduction counter measure and becomes important tool for making environmental policy. Many input factors such as road conditions, number of vehicles, speeds of vehicles are used for noise prediction of the noise map. However, results of noise prediction make difference depending on the values of the input factors. In this study, effect of measurement method for vehicle speeds all the prediction results of the noise map.

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Effects of Measurement Method for Vehicle Speed on the Prediction Results of Noise Map (속도 측정방법에 따른 소음지도 예측결과 분석)

  • Park, In-Sun;Park, Sang-Kyu
    • Transactions of the Korean Society for Noise and Vibration Engineering
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    • v.17 no.2 s.119
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    • pp.155-159
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    • 2007
  • Noise map presents new alternatives of noise reduction counter measure and becomes important tool for making environmental policy. Many input factors such as road conditions, number of vehicles, speeds of vehicles are used for noise prediction of the noise map. However, results of noise prediction make difference depending on the values of the input factors. In this study, it researched effect of measurement method for vehicle speeds on the prediction results of the noise map.

Analysis of Major Factors and Guideline for Road Traffic Noise Prediction (도로교통소음의 주요 예측인자 분석 및 예측지침)

  • Kang, Dae-Joon;Lee, Jae-Won;Gu, Jin-Hoi
    • Transactions of the Korean Society for Noise and Vibration Engineering
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    • v.20 no.6
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    • pp.515-520
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    • 2010
  • The noise map has been applied to predicting the effect of noise and establishing the noise abatement measure for several years overseas. However the introduction of the noise map in Korea is at the initial stage. Thus, we surveyed the several prediction models for road traffic noise used in EU, and the method of applying the noise map in noise impact assessment. In order to improve the noise impact assessment we have to apply the noise map, and propose the guideline of predicting the road traffic noise. We intend to obtain coherency and accuracy of prediction results. As a result of this study, we know that the prediction guideline is an essential prerequisite in order to predict the unified and accurate road traffic noise.

Effects of Grid Size on Noise Prediction Results of Road Traffic Noise Map (소음지도 격자크기가 도로교통 소음도 예측 결과에 미치는 영향)

  • Kim, Ji-Yoon;Park, In-Sun;Park, Chan-Youn;Park, Sang-Kyu;Ryu, Bong-Jo
    • Proceedings of the Korean Society for Noise and Vibration Engineering Conference
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    • 2007.05a
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    • pp.867-871
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    • 2007
  • Noise map is very efficient tool to evaluate the road traffic noise. However, calculation time and accuracy of noise map heavily depend on the grid size of noise map. In this study, effects of grid size on the prediction results of road traffic noise map have been investigated in detail for urban and rural areas, respectively, and efficient grid size for the noise map has been proposed.

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Effects of Grid Size on Noise Prediction Results of Road Traffic Noise Map (소음지도 격자크기가 도로교통 소음도 예측결과에 미치는 영향)

  • Kim, Ji-Yoon;Park, In-Sun;Park, Chan-Youn;Park, Sang-Kyu
    • Transactions of the Korean Society for Noise and Vibration Engineering
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    • v.20 no.2
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    • pp.199-204
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    • 2010
  • Noise map is very efficient tool to evaluate the road traffic noise. However, calculation time and accuracy of noise map heavily depend on the grid size of noise map. In this study, effects of grid size on the prediction results of road traffic noise map have been investigated in detail for urban and rural areas, respectively, and efficient grid size for the noise map has been proposed.

A Study on a Method to Apply to Domestic Railway Vehicles in Prediction of Railway Noise Using a Noise Map (소음지도를 이용한 철도소음 예측 시 국내 철도차량 적용 방안 연구)

  • Park, Chan-Youn;Park, In-Sun;Oh, Jong-Hwa;Park, Sang-Kyu
    • Proceedings of the Korean Society for Noise and Vibration Engineering Conference
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    • 2008.04a
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    • pp.882-888
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    • 2008
  • The increase in logistics and the emergence of high speed vehicles are aggravating the noise problem, and disturbing large numbers of people. Therefore, growing attention is being paid to the creation and utilization of a noise map in order to grasp and predict the influence of noise, and to establish a policy that effectively reduces noise. However, so far there has been little progress in developing a predictive formula for railway noise, and a noise prediction program suitable for the domestic environment. Therefore, there is a need for a method to apply the overseas prediction formula to domestic railway vehicles. This study evaluated the prediction method, the result of which is similar to that of a real measurement, using a noise map. It also employed a commercial software program, SoundPlan, to predict noise.

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Prediction of Landslide around Stone Relics of Jinjeon-saji Area (진전사지 석조문화재 주변의 산사태예측)

  • Kim, Kyeong-Su;Lee, Choon-Oh;Song, Young-Suk;Cho, Yong-Chan
    • Proceedings of the Korean Geotechical Society Conference
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    • 2008.03a
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    • pp.1378-1385
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    • 2008
  • The probability of landslide hazards was predicted to natural terrain around the stone relics of Jinjeon-saji area, which is located in Yangyang, Kangwon Province. As the analysis results of field investigation, laboratory test and geology and geomorphology data, the effect factors of landslides occurrence were evaluated, and then the landslides prediction map was made up by use of prediction model considering the effect factors. The susceptibility of stone relics induced by landslides was investigated as the grading classification of occurrence probability using the landslides prediction map. In the landslides prediction map, the high probability area of landslides over 70% of occurrence probability was 3,489m3, which was 10.1% of total prediction area. If landslides are occurred at the high elevation area, the three stories stone pagoda of Jinjeon-saji (National treasure No.122) and the stone lantern of Jinjeon-saji (Treasure No.439) will be collapsed by debris flow.

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The Study for the Assessment of the Noise Map for the Railway Noise Prediction Considering the Input Variables (철도소음예측시 입력변수의 영향을 고려한 소음지도 작성 및 평가)

  • Lee, Jaewon;Gu, J.H.;Lee, W.S.;Seo, C.Y.
    • Transactions of the Korean Society for Noise and Vibration Engineering
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    • v.23 no.4
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    • pp.295-300
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    • 2013
  • The noise map can be applied to predict the effect of noise and establish the noise reduction measure. But the predicted value in the noise map can vary depending on the input variables. Thus, we surveyed the several prediction models and analyzed the changes corresponding to the variables for obtaining the coherency and accuracy of prediction results. As a result, we know that the Schall03 and CRN model can be applied to predict the railway noise in Korea and the correction value, such as bridges correction, multiple reflection correction, curve correction must be used for reflecting the condition of the prediction site. Also, we know that the prediction guideline is an essential prerequisite in order to obtain the unified and accurate predicted value for railway noise.

Effects of Vehicle Classification Methods on Noise Prediction Results of Road Traffic Noise Map (소음지도 제작 시 차량 분류방법이 소음도 예측 결과에 미치는 영향 연구)

  • Kim, Ji-Yoon;Park, In-Sun;Jung, Woo-Hong;Park, Sang-Kyu
    • Proceedings of the Korean Society for Noise and Vibration Engineering Conference
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    • 2007.05a
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    • pp.872-876
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    • 2007
  • Road traffic noise map is effective method to save cost and time for environmental noise assessment. Generally, noise is calculated by using theoretical equation of noise prediction, and the calculated result can be influenced by various input factors. Especially, domestic vehicle classification method for traffic flow and heavy vehicle percentage is different from that of foreign countries. Thus, this can cause effect on the noise prediction results. In this study, noise prediction results by using domestic vehicle classification method are compared with those by foreign methods.

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