• Title/Summary/Keyword: Predicting Typhoons

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Hazard Risk Assessment for National Roads in Gangneung City (강릉지역 국도의 재해위험성 평가)

  • Kim, Gi-Hong;Won, Sang-Yeon;Youn, Jun-Hee;Song, Yeong-Sun
    • Journal of Korean Society for Geospatial Information Science
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    • v.16 no.4
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    • pp.33-39
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    • 2008
  • Typhoon Lusa in 2002 and Typhoon Maemi in 2003 caused the worst damage of landslide and debris flow to Gangwon-do. This damage includes severe damage in riverside road. The damage register indicates that this damage is concentrated on mountain areas in Gangwon-do. In recent years, the studies on GIS application to predicting landslide and debris flow have been progressing actively. Landslide risk map managed by The Forest Service is the representative one. In this study, we generated landslide and debris flow hazard maps using statistical analysis and deterministic analysis in Gangnung area where Typhoons caused severe damage to riverside roads. We built damage point GIS DB from damage registers of National Road Maintenance Agency and field survey, and verified accuracy of landslide and debris flow hazard maps using GIS methods.

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Inundation Analysis on Coastal Zone around Masan Bay by Typhoon Maemi (No. 0314) (태풍 매미(0314호)에 의한 마산만 주변연안역에서의 범람해석)

  • Chun, Jae-Young;Lee, Kwang-Ho;Kim, Ji-Min;Kim, Do-Sam
    • Journal of Ocean Engineering and Technology
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    • v.22 no.3
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    • pp.8-17
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    • 2008
  • Wrenching climatic changes due to ecocide and global wanning are producing a natural disaster. Coastal zones have been damaged by typhoons and accompanying storm surges. Severe waves, and destruction of the environment are adding to the severity of coastal disasters. There has been an increased interest in these coastal zone problems, and associated social confusion, after the loss of life and terrible property damage caused by typhoon Maemi. Especially if storm surges coincide with high ticks, the loss of life and property damage due to high waters are even worse. Therefore, it is desirable to accurately forecast not only the timing of storm surges but also the amount water level increase. Such forecasts are very important from the view point of coastal defense. In this study, using a numerical model, storm surge was simulated to examine its fluctuation characteristics for the coastal area behind Masan Bay, Korea. In the numerical model, a moving boundary condition was incorporated to explain wave run-up. Numerically predicted inundation regimes and depths were compared with measurements from a field survey. Comparisons of the numerical results and measured data show a very good correlation. The numerical model adapted in this study is expected to be a useful tool for analysis of storm surges, and for predicting inundation regimes due to coastal flooding by severe water waves.

Estimation of Maximum Typhoon Intensity Considering Climate Change Scenarios and Simulation of Corresponding Storm Surge (기후변화 시나리오에 따른 최대 가능 태풍강도 추정 및 이에 따른 폭풍해일고 양상 모의)

  • Yoon, Jong-Joo;Jun, Ki-Cheon;Shim, Jae-Seol;Park, Kwang-Soon
    • Journal of the Korean Society for Marine Environment & Energy
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    • v.15 no.4
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    • pp.292-301
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    • 2012
  • The rise in sea surface temperature (SST) as a global warming enhance overall typhoon activity. We assumed that there exist thermodynamic limits to intensity that apply in the absence of significant interaction between storms and their environment. The limit calculations depend on SST and atmospheric profiles of temperature and moisture. This approach do appear to provide resonable upper bounds on the intensities of observed storms and may even be useful for predicting the change in intensity over a long period time. The maximum storm intensities was estimated through the global warming scenarios from IPCC-AR4 report over the North-East Asia. The result shows stronger intensities according to scenarios for increase of carbon dioxide levels. And storm surge simulations was performed with the typhoons which were combined route of the typhoon Maemi (2003) and intensity as climate change scenarios. The maximum increase of storm surge heights was shown about 29~110 cm (36~65%) regionally. Especially at Masan, the result of simulated maximum surge height exceed the 200 years return period surge.

A Study on the Long-Term Variations of Annual Maximum Surge Heights at Sokcho and Mukho Harbors (속초와 묵호항의 연간 최대해일고의 장기간 변동성에 대한 고찰)

  • Kwon, Seok-Jae;Moon, Il-Ju;Lee, Eun-Il
    • Journal of Korean Society of Coastal and Ocean Engineers
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    • v.20 no.6
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    • pp.564-574
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    • 2008
  • This study investigates a long-term variation of annual maximum surge heights(AMSH) and main characteristics of high surge events, which is influenced by the global warming and intensifying typhoons, using sea level data at Sokcho and Mukho tidal stations over 34 years ($1974{\sim}2007$). It is found that the there is a longterm uptrend of the AMSH at Sokcho (8.3 cm/34yrs) and at Mukho (8.7 cm/34yrs), which is significant within 95% confidence level based on the linear regression. The statistical analysis reveals that 53% of the AMSH occurs during typhoon's event in both tidal stations and the highest surge records are mostly produced by the typhoon. It is concluded that the uptrend in the AMSH is attributed by the increasing typhoon activities globally as well as locally in Korea due to the increased sea surface temperature in tropical oceans. The continuous efforts monitering and predicting the extreme surge events in the future warm environments are required to prevent the growing storm surge damage by the intensified typhoon.

The Study for Enhancing Resilience to Debris Flow at the Vulnerable Areas (토석류 재해발생 시 레질리언스 강화를 위한 연구)

  • Kim, Sungduk;Lee, Hojin;Chang, Hyungjoon;Dho, Hyonseung
    • Journal of the Korean GEO-environmental Society
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    • v.22 no.8
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    • pp.5-12
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    • 2021
  • Climate change caused by global warming increases the frequency of occurrence of super typhoons and causes various types of sediment disasters such as debris flows in the mountainous area. This study is to evaluate the behavior of debris flow according to the multiplier value of the precipitation characteristics and the quantity of debris flow according to the typhoon category. For the analysis of the debris flow, the finite difference method for time elapse was applied. The larger the typhoon category, the higher the peak value of the flow discharge of debris flow and the faster the arrival time. When the precipitation characteristic multiplier is large, the fluctuation amplitude is high and the bandwidth is wide. When the slope angle was steeper, water discharge increased by 2~2.5 times or more, and the fluctuation of the flow discharge of debris flow increased. All of the velocities of debris flow were included to the class of "Very rapid", and the distribution of the erosion or sedimentation velocity of debris flows showed that the magnitude of erosion increased from the beginning, large-scale erosion occurred, and flowed downstream. The results of this study will provide information for predicting debris flow disasters, structural countermeasures and establishing countermeasures for reinforcing resilience in vulnerable areas.

Analyzing the Characteristics of Atmospheric Stability from Radiosonde Observations in the Southern Coastal Region of the Korean Peninsula during the Summer of 2019 (라디오존데 고층관측자료를 활용한 한반도 남해안 지역의 2019년도 여름철 대기 안정도 특성 분석)

  • Shin, Seungsook;Hwang, Sung-Eun;Lee, Young-Tae;Kim, Byung-Taek;Kim, Ki-Hoon
    • Journal of the Korean earth science society
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    • v.42 no.5
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    • pp.496-503
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    • 2021
  • By analyzing the characteristics of atmospheric stability in the southern coastal region of the Korean Peninsula in the summer of 2019, a quantitative threshold of atmospheric instability indices was derived for predicting rainfall events in the Korean Peninsula. For this analysis, we used data from all of the 243 radiosonde intensive observations recorded at the Boseong Standard Weather Observatory (BSWO) in the summer of 2019. To analyze the atmospheric stability of rain events and mesoscale atmospheric phenomena, convective available potential energy (CAPE) and storm relative helicity (SRH) were calculated and compared. In particular, SRH analysis was divided into four levels based on the depth of the atmosphere (0-1, 0-3, 0-6, and 0-10 km). The rain events were categorized into three cases: that of no rain, that of 12 h before the rain, and that of rain. The results showed that SRH was more suitable than CAPE for the prediction of the rainfall events in Boseong during the summer of 2019, and that the rainfall events occurred when the 0-6 km SRH was 150 m2 s-2 or more, which is the same standard as that for a possible weak tornado. In addition, the results of the atmospheric stability analysis during the Changma, which is the rainy period in the Korean Peninsula during the summer and typhoon seasons, showed that the 0-6 km SRH was larger than the mean value of the 0-10 km SRH, whereas SRH generally increased as the depth of the atmosphere increased. Therefore, it can be said that the 0-6 km SRH was more effective in determining the rainfall events caused by typhoons in Boseong in the summer of 2019.