• 대기
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• 제14권3호
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• pp.41-54
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• 2004

In this study, a brief overview on a WMO/WWRP program - The Observing System Research and Predictability Experiment (THORPEX) and discussions on perspectives and potential benefits of Asian countries are provided. THORPEX is aimed at accelerating improvements in the accuracy of 1 to 14-day high-impact weather forecasts with research objectives of: 1) predictability and dynamical processes; 2) observing systems; 3) data assimilation and observing strategies; and 4) societal and economic applications. Direct benefits of Asian countries from THORPEX include improvement of: 1) forecast skills in global models, which exerts positive impact on mesoscale forecasts; 2) typhoon forecasts through dropwindsonde observations; and 3) forecast skills for high-impact weather systems via increased observations in neighboring countries. Various indirect benefits for scientific researches are also discussed. Extensive adaptive observation studies are recommended for all high-impact weather systems coming into the Korean peninsula, and enhancement of observations in the highly sensitive regions for the forecast error growth is required to improve forecast skills in the peninsula, possibly through international collaborations with neighboring countries.

• 대한음성학회:학술대회논문집
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• 대한음성학회 2007년도 한국음성과학회 공동학술대회 발표논문집
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• pp.281-284
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• 2007

This experimental study aims to find out the correlation between semantic predictability and pitch-accent realization. For the experiment, we classified the predictability into three degrees: unpredictable, implicitly predictable, and explicitly predictable. And then each degree divided into to two subcatergories: one is adverbs/adverbial phrases of time or place and the other one is not time or place adverbs/adverbial phrases. The materials used in the experiment were 9 sentences for the each subcategory. One male and one female English native speakers participated in this experiment. Their reading speeches were recorded on Digital Audio Tape. Their speech data were analyzed by using Pitchworks program. The results of this experiment show pitch accented ratio is somewhat in inverse proportion to the degree of predictability.

• 한국환경과학회:학술대회논문집
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• 한국환경과학회 2003년도 International Symposium on Clean Environment
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• pp.27-32
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• 2003

Atmospheric and oceanic numerical models are usually initial-value and/or boundary-value problems. Change in either initial or boundary conditions leads to a variation of model solutions. Much of the predictability research has been done on the response of model behavior to an initial value perturbation. Less effort has been made on the response of model behavior to a boundary value perturbation. In this study, we use the latest version of the National Center for Atmospheric Research (NCAR) Community Climate Model (CCM3) to study the model uncertainty to tiny SST errors. The results show the urgency to investigate the second kind predictability problem for the climate models.

• Journal of Computing Science and Engineering
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• 제6권1호
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• pp.26-38
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• 2012

Java has been increasingly used in programming for real-time systems. However, some of Java's features such as automatic memory management and dynamic compilation are harmful to time predictability. If these problems are not solved properly then it can fundamentally limit the usage of Java for real-time systems, especially for hard real-time systems that require very high time predictability. In this paper, we propose to exploit multicore computing in order to reduce the timing unpredictability that is caused by dynamic compilation and adaptive optimization. Our goal is to retain high performance comparable to that of traditional dynamic compilation, while at the same time, obtain better time predictability for Java virtual machine (JVM). We have studied pre-compilation techniques to utilize another core more efficiently, preoptimization on another core (PoAC) scheme to replace the adaptive optimization system (AOS) in Jikes JVM and the counter based optimization (CBO). Our evaluation reveals that the proposed approaches are able to attain high performance while greatly reducing the variation of the execution time for Java applications.

• 디지털융복합연구
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• 제15권1호
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• pp.129-141
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• 2017

본 연구는 K-IFRS도입 후 회계이익의 질을 상장기업(KOSPI, KOSDAQ)을 대상으로 하여 비교분석하였다. 분석결과를 보면 첫째, KOSPI가 KOSDAQ보다 발생액의 질이 높게 나왔고 보고이익과 현금이익의 지속성 및 예측력도 일관되게 더 양호함을 볼 수 있다. 둘째, KOSPI와 KOSDAQ 모두 일관되게 미래현금흐름에 대한 예측능력이 현금이익보다는 회계이익이 더 양호함을 볼 수 있다. 셋째 발생액의 정도에 따른 이익의 지속성과 예측력은 KOSPI와 KOSDAQ 모두 발생액의 질이 양호한 집단일수록 이익의 지속성과 예측력이 더 높음을 볼 수 있고 회계이익의 미래현금흐름 예측능력이 또한 더 양호함을 알 수 있다. 결론적으로 본 연구를 통해 K-IFRS도입 후 회계이익의 질은 KOSDAQ보다 KOSPI가 더 양호함을 볼 수 있고 발생액이 높을수록 그 차이는 더 큼을 볼 수 있다.

• 대기
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• 제31권5호
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• pp.577-592
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• 2021

This study evaluates the predictability of the number of days of heat and cold damages by growth stages of rice in South Korea using the hindcast data (1986~2020) produced by Pusan National University Coupled General Circulation Model-Weather Research and Forecasting (PNU CGCM-WRF) model chain. The predictability is accessed in terms of Root Mean Square Error (RMSE), Normalized Standardized Deviations (NSD), Hit Rate (HR) and Heidke Skill Score (HSS). For the purpose, the model predictability to produce the daily maximum and minimum temperatures, which are the variables used to define heat and cold damages for rice, are evaluated first. The result shows that most of the predictions starting the initial conditions from January to May (01RUN to 05RUN) have reasonable predictability, although it varies to some extent depending on the month at which integration starts. In particular, the ensemble average of 01RUN to 05RUN with equal weighting (ENS) has more reasonable predictability (RMSE is in the range of 1.2~2.6℃ and NSD is about 1.0) than individual RUNs. Accordingly, the regional patterns and characteristics of the predicted damages for rice due to excessive high- and low-temperatures are well captured by the model chain when compared with observation, particularly in regions where the damages occur frequently, in spite that hindcasted data somewhat overestimate the damages in terms of number of occurrence days. In ENS, the HR and HSS for heat (cold) damages in rice is in the ranges of 0.44~0.84 and 0.05~0.13 (0.58~0.81 and -0.01~0.10) by growth stage. Overall, it is concluded that the PNU CGCM-WRF chain of 01RUN~05RUN and ENS has reasonable capability to predict the heat and cold damages for rice in South Korea.

• 대한인간공학회지
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• 제25권2호
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• pp.161-172
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• 2006

This study aims to compare and contrast the Kansei modeling methods for building a luxuriousness model that people feel about appearance of mobile phones. For the evaluation based on Kansei engineering approaches, 15 participants were employed to evaluate 18 mobile phones using a questionnaire. The results of evaluation were analyzed to build luxuriousness models through quantification I method, neural network, and decision tree method, respectively. The performance of Kansei modeling methods was compared and contrasted in terms of accuracy and predictability. The result of comparison of modeling methods indicated that model accuracy and predictability was closely related to the number of variables and data size. It was also revealed that quantification I method was the best in terms of model accuracy while decision tree method was the best modeling method with small variance in terms of predictability. However, it was empirically found that quantification I method showed extremely unstable predictability with small number of data. Consequently, it is expected that the research findings of this study might be utilized as a guideline for selecting proper Kansei modeling method.

• 대기
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• 제16권3호
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• pp.225-234
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• 2006

Convective systems propagate eastward with a persistent pattern in the longitude-time space. The characteristic structure and fluctuation of convective system is helpful in determining its predictability. In this study, convective index (CI) was defined as a difference between GOES-9 window and water vapor channel brightness temperatures following Mosher (2001). Then the temporal-spatial scales and variational characteristics of the summer convective systems in the East Asia were analyzed. It is found that the average moving speed of the convective system is about 14 m/s which is much faster than the low pressure system in the summer. Their average duration is about 12 hours and the average length of the cloud streak is about 750km. These characteristics are consistent with results from other studies. Although the convective systems are forced by the synoptic system and are mostly developed in the eastern edge of the Tibetan Plateau, they have a persistent pattern, i.e., appearance of the maximum intensity of convective systems, as they approach the Korean Peninsula. The consistency of the convective systems, i.e., the eastward propagation, suggests that there exists an intrinsic predictability.

• 한국통신학회논문지
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• 제25권10B호
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• pp.1675-1689
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• 2000

We present CReMeS a CORBA-compliant design and implementation of a new real-time communication service. It provides for efficient predictable and scalable communication between information producers and consumers. The CReMeS architecture is based on MidART's Real-Time Channel-based Reflective Memory (RT-CRM) abstraction. This architecture supports the separation of QoS specification between producer and consumer of data and employs a user-level scheduling scheme for communicating real-time tasks. These help us achieve end-to-end predictability and allows our service to scale. The CReMeS architecture provides a CORBA interface to applications and demands no changes to the ORB layer and the language mapping layer. Thus it can run on non real-time Off-The-Shelf ORBs enables applications on these ORBs to have scalable and end-to-end predictable asynchronous communication facility. In addition an application designer can select whether to use an out-of-band channel or the ORB GIOP/IIOP for data communication. This permits a trade-off between performance predictability and reliability. Experimental results demonstrate that our architecture can achieve better performance and predictability than a real-time implementation of the CORBA Even Service when the out-of-band channel is employed for data communication it delivers better predictability with comparable performance when the ORB GIOP/IIOP is used.

• 대기
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• 제28권1호
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• pp.15-24
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• 2018

Sea ice plays an important role in modulating surface conditions at high and mid-latitudes. It reacts rapidly to climate change, therefore, it is a good indicator for capturing these changes from the Arctic climate. While many models have been used to study the predictability of climate variables, their performance in predicting sea ice was not well assessed. This study examines the predictability of the Arctic sea ice extent from ensemble prediction systems. The analysis is focused on verification of predictability in each model compared to the observation and prediction in particular, on lead time in Sub-seasonal to Seasonal (S2S) scales. The S2S database now provides quasi-real time ensemble forecasts and hindcasts up to about 60 days from 11 centers: BoM, CMA, ECCC, ECMWF, HMCR, ISAC-CNR, JMA, KMA, Meteo France, NCEP and UKMO. For multi model comparison, only models coupled with sea ice model were selected. Predictability is quantified by the climatology, bias, trends and correlation skill score computed from hindcasts over the period 1999 to 2009. Most of models are able to reproduce characteristics of the sea ice, but they have bias with seasonal dependence and lead time. All models show decreasing sea ice extent trends with a maximum magnitude in warm season. The Arctic sea ice extent can be skillfully predicted up 6 weeks ahead in S2S scales. But trend-independent skill is small and statistically significant for lead time over 6 weeks only in summer.