• Title/Summary/Keyword: Predictability

Search Result 801, Processing Time 0.023 seconds

A Study on the Development of Authenticity Scale Perceived by Players on the Business Sport Team (실업팀 선수가 지각하는 진정성 척도 개발에 관한 연구)

  • Kyung-Won Byun;Min-Kyu Choi
    • The Journal of the Convergence on Culture Technology
    • /
    • v.9 no.1
    • /
    • pp.141-152
    • /
    • 2023
  • The scale of the authenticity perceived by the athletes of the domestic business team was developed. Through this, it is intended to accumulate information and authenticity research on human resource management of unemployment teams. The authenticity scale was developed through a total of 6 steps by referring to previous studies on the scale development process at domestic and international. In the first stage, the basic composition was confirmed through the review of previous studies.In the second stage, preliminary questions were drawn through in-depth interviews with 13 players belonging to the business team. In the third stage, the authenticity attribute and structure were confirmed through an expert meeting. In the fourth stage, the appropriateness of the items was verified through exploratory factor analysis and reliability analysis of 248 people. In the 5th stage, 288 subjects were tested for construct validity, convergent validity, and discriminant validity through confirmatory factor analysis, correlation analysis, and reliability analysis. The sixth step was to verify the relationship through regression analysis with the performance variables to examine the applicability and predictability of the developed scale. Through the above procedures, 4 dimensions of organizational authenticity and 18 measurement items were developed, and 3 dimensions of leader authenticity and 18 measurement items were developed.

A Development of Hydrological Model Calibration Technique Considering Seasonality via Regional Sensitivity Analysis (지역적 민감도 분석을 이용하여 계절성을 고려한 수문 모형 보정 기법 개발)

  • Lee, Ye-Rin;Yu, Jae-Ung;Kim, Kyungtak;Kwon, Hyun-Han
    • KSCE Journal of Civil and Environmental Engineering Research
    • /
    • v.43 no.3
    • /
    • pp.337-352
    • /
    • 2023
  • In general, Rainfall-Runoff model parameter set is optimized using the entire data to calculate unique parameter set. However, Korea has a large precipitation deviation according to the season, and it is expected to even worsen due to climate change. Therefore, the need for hydrological data considering seasonal characteristics. In this study, we conducted regional sensitivity analysis(RSA) using the conceptual Rainfall-Runoff model, GR4J aimed at the Soyanggang dam basin, and clustered combining the RSA results with hydrometeorological data using Self-Organizing map(SOM). In order to consider the climate characteristics in parameter estimation, the data was divided based on clustering, and a calibration approach of the Rainfall-Runoff model was developed by comparing the objective functions of the Global Optimization method. The performance of calibration was evaluated by statistical techniques. As a result, it was confirmed that the model performance during the Cold period(November~April) with a relatively low flow rate was improved. This is expected to improve the performance and predictability of the hydrological model for areas that have a large precipitation deviation such as Monsoon climate.

Leading, Coincident, Lagging INdicators to Analyze the Predictability of the Composite Regional Index Based on TCS Data (지역 경기종합지수 예측 가능성 검토를 위한 TCS 데이터 선행·동행·후행성 분석 연구)

  • Kang, Youjeong;Hong, Jungyeol;Na, Jieun;Kim, Dongho;Cheon, Seunghun
    • The Journal of The Korea Institute of Intelligent Transport Systems
    • /
    • v.21 no.1
    • /
    • pp.209-220
    • /
    • 2022
  • With the worldwide spread of African swine fever, interest in livestock epidemics has increased. Livestock transport vehicles are the main cause of the spread of livestock epidemics, but there are no empirical quarantine procedures and standards related to the mobility of livestock transport vehicles in South Korea. This study extracted the trajectory of livestock-related vehicles using the facility-visit history data from the Korea Animal Health Integrated System and the DTG (Digital Tachograph) data from the Korea Transportation Safety Authority. The results are presented as exposure indices aggregating the link-time occupancy of each vehicle. As a result, 274,519 livestock-related vehicle trajectories were extracted, and the exposure values by link and zone were derived quantitatively. This study highlights the need for prior monitoring of livestock transport vehicles and the establishment of post-disaster prevention policies.

Sensitivity Analysis of Wake Diffusion Patterns in Mountainous Wind Farms according to Wake Model Characteristics on Computational Fluid Dynamics (전산유체역학 후류모델 특성에 따른 산악지형 풍력발전단지 후류확산 형태 민감도 분석)

  • Kim, Seong-Gyun;Ryu, Geon Hwa;Kim, Young-Gon;Moon, Chae-Joo
    • The Journal of the Korea institute of electronic communication sciences
    • /
    • v.17 no.2
    • /
    • pp.265-278
    • /
    • 2022
  • The global energy paradigm is rapidly changing by centering on carbon neutrality, and wind energy is positioning itself as a leader in renewable energy-based power sources. The success of onshore and offshore wind energy projects focuses on securing the economic feasibility of the project, which depends on securing high-quality wind resources and optimal arrangement of wind turbines. In the process of constructing the wind farm, the optimal arrangement method of wind turbines considering the main wind direction is important, and this is related to minimizing the wake effect caused by the fluid passing through the structure located on the windward side. The accuracy of the predictability of the wake effect is determined by the wake model and modeling technique that can properly simulate it. Therefore, in this paper, using WindSim, a commercial CFD model, the wake diffusion pattern is analyzed through the sensitivity study of each wake model of the proposed onshore wind farm located in the mountainous complex terrain in South Korea, and it is intended to be used as basic research data for wind energy projects in complex terrain in the future.

Predicting the Fetotoxicity of Drugs Using Machine Learning (기계학습 기반 약물의 태아 독성 예측 연구)

  • Myeonghyeon Jeong;Sunyong Yoo
    • Journal of Life Science
    • /
    • v.33 no.6
    • /
    • pp.490-497
    • /
    • 2023
  • Pregnant women may need to take medications to treat preexisting diseases or diseases that develop during pregnancy. However, some drugs may be fetotoxic and lead to, for example, teratogenicity and growth retardation. Predicting the fetotoxicity of drugs is thus important for the health of the mother and fetus. The fetotoxicity of many drugs has not been established because various challenges hinder the ability of researchers to determine their fetotoxicity. The need exists for in silico-based fetotoxicity assessment models, as they can modernize the testing paradigm, improve predictability, and reduce the use of animals and the costs of fetotoxicity testing. In this study, we collected data on the fetotoxicity of drugs and constructed fetotoxicity prediction models based on various machine learning algorithms. We optimized the models for more precise predictions by tuning the hyperparameters. We then performed quantitative performance evaluations. The results indicated that the constructed machine learning-based models had high performance (AUROC >0.85, AUPR >0.9) in fetotoxicity prediction. We also analyzed the feature importance of our model's predictions, which could be leveraged to identify the specific features of drugs that are strongly associated with fetotoxicity. The proposed model can be used to prescreen drugs and drug candidates at a lower cost and in less time. It provides a predictive score for fetotoxicity risk, which may be beneficial in the design of studies on fetotoxicity in human pregnancy.

Predicting Future ESG Performance using Past Corporate Financial Information: Application of Deep Neural Networks (심층신경망을 활용한 데이터 기반 ESG 성과 예측에 관한 연구: 기업 재무 정보를 중심으로)

  • Min-Seung Kim;Seung-Hwan Moon;Sungwon Choi
    • Journal of Intelligence and Information Systems
    • /
    • v.29 no.2
    • /
    • pp.85-100
    • /
    • 2023
  • Corporate ESG performance (environmental, social, and corporate governance) reflecting a company's strategic sustainability has emerged as one of the main factors in today's investment decisions. The traditional ESG performance rating process is largely performed in a qualitative and subjective manner based on the institution-specific criteria, entailing limitations in reliability, predictability, and timeliness when making investment decisions. This study attempted to predict the corporate ESG rating through automated machine learning based on quantitative and disclosed corporate financial information. Using 12 types (21,360 cases) of market-disclosed financial information and 1,780 ESG measures available through the Korea Institute of Corporate Governance and Sustainability during 2019 to 2021, we suggested a deep neural network prediction model. Our model yielded about 86% of accurate classification performance in predicting ESG rating, showing better performance than other comparative models. This study contributed the literature in a way that the model achieved relatively accurate ESG rating predictions through an automated process using quantitative and publicly available corporate financial information. In terms of practical implications, the general investors can benefit from the prediction accuracy and time efficiency of our proposed model with nominal cost. In addition, this study can be expanded by accumulating more Korean and international data and by developing a more robust and complex model in the future.

A Study on Forecasting Manpower Demand for Smart Shipping and Port Logistics (스마트 해운항만물류 인력 수요 예측에 관한 연구)

  • Sang-Hoon Shin;Yong-John Shin
    • Journal of Navigation and Port Research
    • /
    • v.47 no.3
    • /
    • pp.155-166
    • /
    • 2023
  • Trend analysis and time series analysis were conducted to predict the demand of manpower under the smartization of shipping and port logistics with transportation survey data of Statistic Korea during the period from 2000 to 2020 and Statistical Yearbook data of Korean Seafarers from 2004 to 2021. A linear regression model was adopted since the validity of the model was evaluated as the highest in forecasting manpower demand in the shipping and port logistics industry. As a result of forecasting the demand of manpower in autonomous ship, remote ship management, smart shipping business, smart port, smart warehouse, and port logistics service from 2021 to 2035, the demand for smart shipping and port logistics personnel was predicted to increase to 8,953 in 2023, 20,688 in 2030, and 26,557 in 2035. This study aimed to increase the predictability of manpower demand through objective estimation analysis, which has been rarely conducted in the smart shipping and port logistics industry. Finally, the result of this research may help establish future strategies for human resource development for professionals in smart shipping and port logistics by utilizing the demand forecasting model described in this paper.

Building a Model to Estimate Pedestrians' Critical Lags on Crosswalks (횡단보도에서의 보행자의 임계간격추정 모형 구축)

  • Kim, Kyung Whan;Kim, Daehyon;Lee, Ik Su;Lee, Deok Whan
    • KSCE Journal of Civil and Environmental Engineering Research
    • /
    • v.29 no.1D
    • /
    • pp.33-40
    • /
    • 2009
  • The critical lag of crosswalk pedestrians is an important parameter in analyzing traffic operation at unsignalized crosswalks, however there is few research in this field in Korea. The purpose of this study is to develop a model to estimate the critical lag. Among the elements which influence the critical lag, the age of pedestrians and the length of crosswalks, which have fuzzy characteristics, and the each lag which is rejected or accepted are collected on crosswalks of which lengths range from 3.5 m to 10.5 m. The values of the critical lag range from 2.56 sec. to 5.56 sec. The age and the length are divided to the 3 fuzzy variables each, and the critical lag of each case is estimated according to Raff's technique, so a total of 9 fuzzy rules are established. Based on the rules, an ANFIS (Adaptive Neuro-Fuzzy Inference System) model to estimate the critical lag is built. The predictability of the model is evaluated comparing the observed with the estimated critical lags by the model. Statistics of $R^2$, MAE, MSE are 0.96, 0.097, 0.015 respectively. Therefore, the model is evaluated to explain the result well. During this study, it is found that the critical lag increases rapidly over the pedestrian's age of 40 years.

Evaluation of Local Effect Prediction Formulas for RC Slabs Subjected to Impact Loading (충격하중이 작용하는 RC 슬래브의 국부손상 산정식에 대한 고찰)

  • Chung, Chul-Hun;Choi, Hyun;Lee, Jung Whee;Choi, Kang Ryong
    • KSCE Journal of Civil and Environmental Engineering Research
    • /
    • v.30 no.6A
    • /
    • pp.543-560
    • /
    • 2010
  • Safety-related concrete structures in a nuclear power plant must be protected against the impact of flying objects, referred to in the profession as missiles. In practice, the structural verification is usually carried out by means of empirical formulas, which relate the velocity of the impinging missile to the wall thickness needed to prevent scabbing or perforation. The purpose of this study is to reevaluate the predictability of the local effect prediction formulas for the penetration and scabbing depths and perforation thickness. Therefore, available formulas for predicting the penetration depth, scabbing thickness, and perforation thickness of concrete structures impacted by solid missiles are summarized, reviewed, and compared. A series of impact analyses is performed to predict the local effects of the projectile at impact velocities varing from 95 to 215 m/s. The results obtained from the numerical simulations have been compared with tests that were carried out at Kojima to validate numerical modelling. The simulation results show reasonable agreement with the Kojima test results for the overall impact response of the RC slabs. From these results, it seems that the Degen equation give a very good estimate of perforation thickness against a tornado projectile for test data. Finally, the results obtained from the impact analysis have been compared with Degen formula to determine the perforation thickness of the RC slab.

Influences of mental health characteristics and admission experiences on perceived coercion (정신장애 특성과 입원과정의 경험들이 지각된 강요에 미치는 영향)

  • Seo, Mi Kyung;Kim, Seung-Hyun;Rhee, MinKyu;Choi, Yong-Sung;Kim, Sung-Hyun;Lee, Moon-Soo;Lee, Heon-Jeong;Kwon, Young-Joon;Kim, Bong-Jo
    • Korean Journal of Health Psychology
    • /
    • v.16 no.1
    • /
    • pp.1-14
    • /
    • 2011
  • Coercive treatment in mental health has undergone an immense period of philosophical and clinical debate and yet it remains as a highly important issue in which ideology and practice contradict each other. this study focused on the perceived coercion of the persons with mental disorder and analyzed how the characteristics of mental disorder(psychiatric symptoms, psycho-social functions, insight, and the degree of awareness on the need for treatment) and experiences in the process of hospitalization (legal status, coercive measures, and procedural justice) can predict perceived coercion. The participants of this study were 302 patients that has been hospitalized in the psychiatric ward within the period of 4 weeks. 195 participants(64.6%) were male and 106(35.1%) participants were female. MAES, BPRS, GAF, Insight, Legal Status, Coercive Measures, and Need for Treatment were measured. Regression analysis was used to analyze how much perceived coercion can be predicted by characteristics of mental disorder such as the patients' BPRS, GAF, insight, and need for treatment. As a result it showed that among the characteristics of mental disorder insight and awareness of the need for treatment were the main predictors and the characteristics of experiences during hospitalization such as procedural justice, coercive measures, and legal status all displayed significant predictability. As well as implications of results in a practical method of intervention to reduce perceived coercion, the paper discussed issues for limitations and future consideration.