• Journal of The Korean Society of Clinical Toxicology
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• v.21 no.2
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• pp.128-134
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• 2023

Purpose: The Prescott nomogram has been utilized to forecast hepatotoxicity from acute acetaminophen poisoning. In developing countries, emergency medical centers lack the resources to report acetaminophen concentrations; thus, the commencement and cessation of treatment are based on the reported dose. This study investigated risk factors that can predict acetaminophen detection after 15 hours for safe treatment termination. Methods: Data were collected from an urban emergency medical center from 2010 to 2020. The study included patients ≥14 years of age with acute acetaminophen poisoning within 15 hours. The correlation between risk factors and detection of acetaminophen 15 hours after ingestion was evaluated using logistic regression, and the area under the curve (AUC) was calculated. Results: In total, 181 patients were included in the primary analysis; the median dose was 150.9 mg/kg and 35 patients (19.3%) had acetaminophen detected 15 hours after ingestion. The dose per weight and the time to visit were significant predictors for acetaminophen detection after 15 hours (odds ratio, 1.020 and 1.030, respectively). The AUCs were 0.628 for a 135 mg/kg cut-off value and 0.658 for a cut-off 450 minutes, and that of the combined model was 0.714 (sensitivity: 45.7%, specificity: 91.8%). Conclusion: Where acetaminophen concentrations are not reported during treatment following the UK guidelines, it is safe to start N-acetylcysteine immediately for patients who are ≥14 years old, visit within 15 hours after acute poisoning, and report having ingested ≥135 mg/kg. Additional N-acetylcysteine doses should be considered for patients visiting after 8 hours.

• Annals of Hepato-Biliary-Pancreatic Surgery
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• v.27 no.2
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• pp.195-200
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• 2023

Backgrounds/Aims: We aimed to build a machine learning tool to help predict low-grade intraductal papillary mucinous neoplasms (IPMNs) in order to avoid unnecessary surgical resection. IPMNs are precursors to pancreatic cancer. Surgical resection remains the only recognized treatment for IPMNs yet carries some risks of morbidity and potential mortality. Existing clinical guidelines are imperfect in distinguishing low-risk cysts from high-risk cysts that warrant resection. Methods: We built a linear support vector machine (SVM) learning model using a prospectively maintained surgical database of patients with resected IPMNs. Input variables included 18 demographic, clinical, and imaging characteristics. The outcome variable was the presence of low-grade or high-grade IPMN based on post-operative pathology results. Data were divided into a training/validation set and a testing set at a ratio of 4:1. Receiver operating characteristics analysis was used to assess classification performance. Results: A total of 575 patients with resected IPMNs were identified. Of them, 53.4% had low-grade disease on final pathology. After classifier training and testing, a linear SVM-based model (IPMN-LEARN) was applied on the validation set. It achieved an accuracy of 77.4%, with a positive predictive value of 83%, a specificity of 72%, and a sensitivity of 83% in predicting low-grade disease in patients with IPMN. The model predicted low-grade lesions with an area under the curve of 0.82. Conclusions: A linear SVM learning model can identify low-grade IPMNs with good sensitivity and specificity. It may be used as a complement to existing guidelines to identify patients who could avoid unnecessary surgical resection.

• Annals of Hepato-Biliary-Pancreatic Surgery
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• v.28 no.2
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• pp.229-237
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• 2024

Backgrounds/Aims: While patients with borderline resectable pancreatic cancer (BRPC) are a target population for neoadjuvant chemotherapy (NAC), formal guidelines for neoadjuvant therapy are lacking. We assessed the perioperative and oncological outcomes in patients with BRPC undergoing NAC with FOLFIRINOX for patients undergoing upfront surgery (US). Methods: The AHPBA criteria for borderline resectability and/or a CA19-9 level > 100 µ/mL defined borderline resectable tumors retrieved from a prospectively populated institutional registry from 2007 to 2020. The primary outcome was overall survival (OS) at 1 and 3 years. A Cox Proportional Hazard model based on intention to treat was used. A receiver-operator characteristics (ROC) curve was constructed to assess the discriminatory capability of the use of CA19-9 > 100 µ/mL to predict resectability and mortality. Results: Forty BRPC patients underwent NAC, while 46 underwent US. The median OS with NAC was 19.8 months (interquartile range [IQR], 10.3-44.24) vs. 10.6 months (IQR, 6.37-17.6) with US. At 1 year, 70% of the NAC group and 41.3% of the US group survived (p = 0.008). At 3 years, 42.5 % of the NAC group and 10.9% of the US group survived (p = 0.001). NAC significantly reduced the hazard of death (adjusted hazard ratio, 0.20; 95% confidence interval, 0.07-0.54; p = 0.001). CA19-9 > 100 µ/mL showed poor discrimination in predicting mortality, but was a moderate predictor of resectability. Conclusions: We found a survival benefit of NAC with FOLFIRINOX for BRPC. Greater pre-treatment of CA19-9 and multivessel involvement on initial imaging were associated with progression of the disease following NAC.

• Journal of Chest Surgery
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• v.57 no.6
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• pp.519-528
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• 2024

Background: Delayed hemothorax (dHTX) can occur unexpectedly, even in patients who initially present without signs of hemothorax (HTX), potentially leading to death. We aimed to develop a predictive model for dHTX requiring intervention, specifically targeting those with no or occult HTX. Methods: This retrospective study was conducted at a level 1 trauma center. The primary outcome was the occurrence of dHTX requiring intervention in patients who had no HTX or occult HTX and did not undergo closed thoracostomy post-injury. To minimize overfitting, we employed the least absolute shrinkage and selection operator (LASSO) logistic regression model for feature selection. Thereafter, we developed a multivariable logistic regression (MLR) model and a nomogram. Results: In total, 688 patients were included in the study, with 64 cases of dHTX (9.3%). The LASSO and MLR analyses revealed that the depth of HTX (adjusted odds ratio [aOR], 3.79; 95% confidence interval [CI], 2.10-6.85; p<0.001) and the number of totally displaced rib fractures (RFX) (aOR, 1.90; 95% CI, 1.56-2.32; p<0.001) were significant predictors. Based on these parameters, we developed a nomogram to predict dHTX, with a sensitivity of 78.1%, a specificity of 76.0%, a positive predictive value of 25.0%, and a negative predictive value of 97.1% at the optimal cut-off value. The area under the receiver operating characteristic curve was 0.832. Conclusion: The depth of HTX on initial chest computed tomography and the number of totally displaced RFX emerged as significant risk factors for dHTX. We propose a novel nomogram that is easily applicable in clinical settings.

• Journal of Korean Neurosurgical Society
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• v.62 no.6
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• pp.643-648
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• 2019

Objective : Shunt-dependent hydrocephalus (SdHCP) is a well-known complication of aneurysmal subarachnoid hemorrhage (SAH). The risk factors for SdHCP have been widely investigated, but few risk scoring systems have been established to predict SdHCP. This study was performed to investigate the risk factors for SdHCP and devise a risk scoring system for use before aneurysm obliteration. Methods : We reviewed the data of 301 consecutive patients who underwent aneurysm obliteration following SAH from September 2007 to December 2016. The exclusion criteria for this study were previous aneurysm obliteration, previous major cerebral infarction, the presence of a cavum septum pellucidum, a midline shift of >10 mm on initial computed tomography (CT), and in-hospital mortality. We finally recruited 254 patients and analyzed the following data according to the presence or absence of SdHCP : age, sex, history of hypertension and diabetes mellitus, Hunt-Hess grade, Fisher grade, aneurysm size and location, type of treatment, bicaudate index on initial CT, intraventricular hemorrhage, cerebrospinal fluid drainage, vasospasm, and modified Rankin scale score at discharge. Results : In the multivariate analysis, acute HCP (bicaudate index of ${\geq}0.2$) (odds ratio [OR], 6.749; 95% confidence interval [CI], 2.843-16.021; p=0.000), Fisher grade of 4 (OR, 4.108; 95% CI, 1.044-16.169; p=0.043), and an age of ${\geq}50years$ (OR, 3.938; 95% CI, 1.375-11.275; p=0.011) were significantly associated with the occurrence of SdHCP. The risk scoring system using above parameters of acute HCP, Fisher grade, and age (AFA score) assigned 1 point to each (total score of 0-3 points). SdHCP occurred in 4.3% of patients with a score of 0, 8.5% with a score of 1, 25.5% with a score of 2, and 61.7% with a score of 3 (p=0.000). In the receiver operating characteristic curve analysis, the area under the curve (AUC) for the risk scoring system was 0.820 (p=0.080; 95% CI, 0.750-0.890). In the internal validation of the risk scoring system, the score reliably predicted SdHCP (AUC, 0.895; p=0.000; 95% CI, 0.847-0.943). Conclusion : Our results suggest that the herein-described AFA score is a useful tool for predicting SdHCP before aneurysm obliteration. Prospective validation is needed.

• Journal of the Korean Society of Radiology
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• v.17 no.3
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• pp.465-472
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• 2023

In predicting vascular disease, this study attempted to identify changes in the carotid intima-media thickness in patients who underwent carotid artery ultrasonography and hematological tests and to find out the effect of risk factors on the expression of atherosclerotic plaque. A retrospective analysis was conducted on 469 healthy adults who visited the hospital for the purpose of medical examination and performed carotid artery ultrasonography. As a result, carotid intima-media thickness, age, body mass index, waist circumference, systolic blood pressure, total cholesterol, high-density lipoprotein cholesterol, low-density lipoprotein cholesterol and glucose were analyzed as significant predictors of atherosclerotic plaque (p<0.001). The risk ratio was calculated based on the cut off value of the risk factors of the atherosclerotic plaque determined through ROC curve analysis, followed by 8.06 times the carotid intima-media thickness, 7.53 times the age, 3.97 times the waist circumference and 2.02 times the glucose. Therefore, in this study it was possible to prepare a Korean standard for clinical risk factors that affect the presence of absence of atherosclerotic plaque and observation of carotid artery ultrasonography is thought to help diagnose or predict cardiovascular disease early.

• Korean Journal of Radiology
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• v.24 no.9
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• pp.827-837
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• 2023

Objective: To investigate the predictive value of radiomics features based on cardiac magnetic resonance (CMR) cine images for left ventricular adverse remodeling (LVAR) after acute ST-segment elevation myocardial infarction (STEMI). Materials and Methods: We conducted a retrospective, single-center, cohort study involving 244 patients (random-split into 170 and 74 for training and testing, respectively) having an acute STEMI (88.5% males, 57.0 ± 10.3 years of age) who underwent CMR examination at one week and six months after percutaneous coronary intervention. LVAR was defined as a 20% increase in left ventricular end-diastolic volume 6 months after acute STEMI. Radiomics features were extracted from the oneweek CMR cine images using the least absolute shrinkage and selection operator regression (LASSO) analysis. The predictive performance of the selected features was evaluated using receiver operating characteristic curve analysis and the area under the curve (AUC). Results: Nine radiomics features with non-zero coefficients were included in the LASSO regression of the radiomics score (RAD score). Infarct size (odds ratio [OR]: 1.04 (1.00-1.07); P = 0.031) and RAD score (OR: 3.43 (2.34-5.28); P < 0.001) were independent predictors of LVAR. The RAD score predicted LVAR, with an AUC (95% confidence interval [CI]) of 0.82 (0.75-0.89) in the training set and 0.75 (0.62-0.89) in the testing set. Combining the RAD score with infarct size yielded favorable performance in predicting LVAR, with an AUC of 0.84 (0.72-0.95). Moreover, the addition of the RAD score to the left ventricular ejection fraction (LVEF) significantly increased the AUC from 0.68 (0.52-0.84) to 0.82 (0.70-0.93) (P = 0.018), which was also comparable to the prediction provided by the combined microvascular obstruction, infarct size, and LVEF with an AUC of 0.79 (0.65-0.94) (P = 0.727). Conclusion: Radiomics analysis using non-contrast cine CMR can predict LVAR after STEMI independently and incrementally to LVEF and may provide an alternative to traditional CMR parameters.

• Fire Science and Engineering
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• v.32 no.1
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• pp.16-23
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• 2018

In a closed-compartment with various configurations, the correlation that can predict the maximum heat release rate (HRR) with the changes in internal volume and fire growth rate was investigated numerically. The volume of the compartment was controlled by varying the length ratio based on the bottom surface shape of the ISO 9705 fire room, where the ceiling height was fixed to 2.4 m. As a main result, the effect of a change in ceiling height on the maximum HRR was examined by a comparison with a previous study that considered the change in ceiling height. In addition, a more generalized correlation equation was proposed that could predict the maximum HRR in closed-compartments regardless of the changes in ceiling height. This correlation had an average error of 7% and a maximum error of 19% for various fire growth rates when compared with the numerical results. Finally, the applicability of the proposed correlation to representative fire compartments applied to the domestic performance-based design (PBD) was examined. These results are expected to provide useful information on predicting the maximum HRR caused by flashover in closed-compartments as well as the input information required in a fire simulation.

• Journal of Chest Surgery
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• v.56 no.4
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• pp.244-251
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• 2023

Background: Extracorporeal membrane oxygenation (ECMO) has been widely used in patients with cardiorespiratory failure. The serum albumin level is an important prognostic marker in critically ill patients. We evaluated the efficacy of using pre-ECMO serum albumin levels to predict 30-day mortality in patients with cardiogenic shock (CS) who underwent venoarterial (VA) ECMO. Methods: We reviewed the medical records of 114 adult patients who underwent VA-ECMO between March 2021 and September 2022. The patients were divided into survivors and non-survivors. Clinical data before and during ECMO were compared. Results: Patients' mean age was 67.8±13.6 years, and 36 (31.6%) were female. The proportion of survival to discharge was 48.6% (n=56). Cox regression analysis showed that the pre-ECMO albumin level independently predicted 30-day mortality (hazard ratio, 0.25; 95% confidence interval [CI], 0.11-0.59; p=0.002). The area under the receiver operating characteristic curve of albumin levels (pre-ECMO) was 0.73 (standard error [SE], 0.05; 95% CI, 0.63-0.81; p<0.001; cut-off value=3.4 g/dL). Kaplan-Meier survival analysis showed that the cumulative 30-day mortality was significantly higher in patients with a pre-ECMO albumin level ≤3.4 g/dL than in those with a level >3.4 g/dL (68.9% vs. 23.8%, p<0.001). As the adjusted amount of albumin infused increased, the possibility of 30-day mortality also increased (coefficient=0.140; SE, 0.037; p<0.001). Conclusion: Hypoalbuminemia during ECMO was associated with higher mortality, even with higher amounts of albumin replacement, in patients with CS who underwent VA-ECMO. Further studies are needed to predict the timing of albumin replacement during ECMO.

• Korean Journal of Radiology
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• v.24 no.2
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• pp.133-144
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• 2023

Objective: Cyclin-dependent kinase inhibitor (CDKN)2A/B homozygous deletion is a key molecular marker of isocitrate dehydrogenase (IDH)-mutant astrocytomas in the 2021 World Health Organization. We aimed to investigate whether qualitative and quantitative MRI parameters can predict CDKN2A/B homozygous deletion status in IDH-mutant astrocytomas. Materials and Methods: Preoperative MRI data of 88 patients (mean age ± standard deviation, 42.0 ± 11.9 years; 40 females and 48 males) with IDH-mutant astrocytomas (76 without and 12 with CDKN2A/B homozygous deletion) from two institutions were included. A qualitative imaging assessment was performed. Mean apparent diffusion coefficient (ADC), 5th percentile of ADC, mean normalized cerebral blood volume (nCBV), and 95th percentile of nCBV were assessed via automatic tumor segmentation. Logistic regression was performed to determine the factors associated with CDKN2A/B homozygous deletion in all 88 patients and a subgroup of 47 patients with histological grades 3 and 4. The discrimination performance of the logistic regression models was evaluated using the area under the receiver operating characteristic curve (AUC). Results: In multivariable analysis of all patients, infiltrative pattern (odds ratio [OR] = 4.25, p = 0.034), maximal diameter (OR = 1.07, p = 0.013), and 95th percentile of nCBV (OR = 1.34, p = 0.049) were independent predictors of CDKN2A/B homozygous deletion. The AUC, accuracy, sensitivity, and specificity of the corresponding model were 0.83 (95% confidence interval [CI], 0.72-0.91), 90.4%, 83.3%, and 75.0%, respectively. On multivariable analysis of the subgroup with histological grades 3 and 4, infiltrative pattern (OR = 10.39, p = 0.012) and 95th percentile of nCBV (OR = 1.24, p = 0.047) were independent predictors of CDKN2A/B homozygous deletion, with an AUC accuracy, sensitivity, and specificity of the corresponding model of 0.76 (95% CI, 0.60-0.88), 87.8%, 80.0%, and 58.1%, respectively. Conclusion: The presence of an infiltrative pattern, larger maximal diameter, and higher 95th percentile of the nCBV may be useful MRI biomarkers for CDKN2A/B homozygous deletion in IDH-mutant astrocytomas.