• Title/Summary/Keyword: Precipitation change

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Effect of Regional Climate Change Projected by RCP Scenarios on the Efficiency of Low Impact Development Applications (RCP 시나리오에 따른 지역의 기후변화가 저영향개발 기법 효과에 미치는 영향)

  • Jeon, Ji-Hong;Kim, Tae-Dong;Choi, Donghyuk
    • Journal of the Korean Society of Urban Environment
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    • v.18 no.4
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    • pp.409-417
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    • 2018
  • This study elicited the necessity of considering regional climate change on Low Impact Development (LID) application by evaluating its effect on LID efficiency. The relationship between climate change factors and LID efficiency was evaluated with Representative Concentration Pathway (RCP) showing the increase of annual precipitation and representative evapotranspiration. Simply lowering lawn surface (LID3), a practical option to increase retention and infiltration effect, demonstrated hydrological improvement above two conventional options, bioretention with green roof (LID1) and bioretention only (LID2). High runoff reductions of applied options at RCP 4.5, supposing taking efforts for mitigating green house gases, revealed that climate change countermeasures were preferable to LID efficiencies. The increase of precipitation had more influence in hydrological change than that of reference evapotranspiration.

Assessment of Flood Vulnerability for Small Reservoir according to Climate Change Scenario - Reservoir in Gyeonggi-do - (기후변화 시나리오에 따른 소규모 저수지의 홍수 취약성 평가 - 경기도 내 저수지를 중심으로 -)

  • Heo, Joon;Bong, Tae-Ho;Kim, Seong-Pil;Jun, Sang-Min
    • Journal of The Korean Society of Agricultural Engineers
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    • v.64 no.5
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    • pp.53-65
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    • 2022
  • Most of the reservoirs managed by the city and county are small and it is difficult to respond to climate change because the drainage area is small and the inflow increases rapidly when a heavy rain occurs. In this study, the current status of reservoirs managed by city and county in Gyeonggi-do was reviewed and flood vulnerability due to climate change was analyzed. In order to analyze the impact of climate change, CMIP6-based future climate scenario provided by IPCC was used, and future rainfall data was established through downscaling of climate scenario (SSP8-8.5). The flood vulnerability of reservoirs due to climate change was evaluated using the concept provided by the IPCC. The future annual precipitation at six weather stations appeared a gradual increase and the fluctuation range of the annual precipitation was also found to increase. As a result of calculating the flood vulnerability index, it was analyzed that the flood vulnerability was the largest in the 2055s period and the lowest in the 2025s period. In the past period (2000s), the number of D and E grade reservoirs was 58, but it was found to increase to 107 in the 2055s period. In 2085s, there were 17 E grade reservoirs, which was more than in the past. Therefore, it is necessary to take measures against the increasing risk of flooding in the future.

Prediction of Changes in Potential Distribution of Warm-Temperate and Subtropical Trees, Myrica rubra and Syzygium buxifolium in South Korea (남한에서 기후변화에 따른 난아열대 목본식물, Myrica rubra와 Syzygium buxifolium의 잠재분포 변화 예측)

  • Eun-Young, Yim;Hyun-kyu, Won;Jong-Seo, Won;Dana, Kim;Hyungjin, Cho
    • Ecology and Resilient Infrastructure
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    • v.9 no.4
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    • pp.282-289
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    • 2022
  • Analyzing the impact of climate change on the Korean Peninsula on the forest ecosystem is important for the management of subtropical forest bioresources. In this study, we collected location data and bioclimatic variables of the warm-temperate woody plant species, Myrica rubra and Cyzygium buxifolium, and applied the MaxEnt model based on the collected data to estimate the potential distribution area. Precipitation and temperature seasonality in the warmest quarter were the main environmental factors that determined the distribution of M. rubra, and the main environmental factors for S. buxifolium were precipitation in the warmest quarter and precipitation in the wettest quarter. The results of the MaxEnt model by administrative district, the M. rubra showed an area increase rate of 4.6 - 17.7% in the SSP2-4.5 climate change scenario and 13.8 - 30.5% in the SSP5-8.5 climate change scenario. S. buxifolium showed area increase rates of 4.8 - 32.2% in the SSP2-4.5 climate change scenario and 12.9 - 48.6% in the SSP5-8.5 climate change scenario. This study is meaningful in establishing a database and identifying future potential distribution areas of warm and subtropical plants by applying climate change scenarios.

Trend Analysis of Vegetation Changes of Korean Fir (Abies koreana Wilson) in Hallasan and Jirisan Using MODIS Imagery (MODIS 시계열 위성영상을 이용한 한라산과 지리산 구상나무 식생 변동 추세 분석)

  • Minki Choo;Cheolhee Yoo;Jungho Im;Dongjin Cho;Yoojin Kang;Hyunkyung Oh;Jongsung Lee
    • Korean Journal of Remote Sensing
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    • v.39 no.3
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    • pp.325-338
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    • 2023
  • Korean fir (Abies koreana Wilson) is one of the most important environmental indicator tree species for assessing climate change impacts on coniferous forests in the Korean Peninsula. However, due to the nature of alpine and subalpine regions, it is difficult to conduct regular field surveys of Korean fir, which is mainly distributed in regions with altitudes greater than 1,000 m. Therefore, this study analyzed the vegetation change trend of Korean fir using regularly observed remote sensing data. Specifically, normalized difference vegetation index (NDVI) from Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer (MODIS), land surface temperature (LST), and precipitation data from Global Precipitation Measurement (GPM) Integrated Multi-satellitE Retrievalsfor GPM from September 2003 to 2020 for Hallasan and Jirisan were used to analyze vegetation changes and their association with environmental variables. We identified a decrease in NDVI in 2020 compared to 2003 for both sites. Based on the NDVI difference maps, areas for healthy vegetation and high mortality of Korean fir were selected. Long-term NDVI time-series analysis demonstrated that both Hallasan and Jirisan had a decrease in NDVI at the high mortality areas (Hallasan: -0.46, Jirisan: -0.43). Furthermore, when analyzing the long-term fluctuations of Korean fir vegetation through the Hodrick-Prescott filter-applied NDVI, LST, and precipitation, the NDVI difference between the Korean fir healthy vegetation and high mortality sitesincreased with the increasing LST and decreasing precipitation in Hallasan. Thissuggests that the increase in LST and the decrease in precipitation contribute to the decline of Korean fir in Hallasan. In contrast, Jirisan confirmed a long-term trend of declining NDVI in the areas of Korean fir mortality but did not find a significant correlation between the changes in NDVI and environmental variables (LST and precipitation). Further analyses of environmental factors, such as soil moisture, insolation, and wind that have been identified to be related to Korean fir habitats in previous studies should be conducted. This study demonstrated the feasibility of using satellite data for long-term monitoring of Korean fir ecosystems and investigating their changes in conjunction with environmental conditions. Thisstudy provided the potential forsatellite-based monitoring to improve our understanding of the ecology of Korean fir.

Did Fluvial Terrace of Mountain Streams in Korea Form in Each Glacial Stage? (우리나라 산지 하천의 하안단구는 매 빙기마다 형성되었는가?)

  • Lee, Gwang-Ryul
    • Journal of The Geomorphological Association of Korea
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    • v.26 no.3
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    • pp.19-30
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    • 2019
  • This study summarizes domestic and foreign previous works on fluvial terrace with absolute ages to discuss formative process of climatic terrace in Korea. Different from traditional climatic terrace model, approximately three quarters from foreign works have argued that formation of climatic terrace can be attributed to medium- and short-term climatic change or other environmental factors, rather than long-term climatic change of glacial and interglacial cycles. Based on previous works on fluvial terrace in Korea, it can be suggested that fluvial terrace in Korea formed not due to long-term climatic change of 100,000-year cycles related to glacial and interglacial cycles, but due to medium- and short-term climatic change or climatic event of tens of thousands of years related to intensity change in summer monsoon, one of the important factors affecting precipitation in Korea.

Changing Trends of Climatic Variables of Agro-Climatic Zones of Rice in South Korea (벼 작물 농업기후지대의 연대별 기후요소 변화 특성)

  • Jung, Myung-Pyo;Shim, Kyo-Moon;Kim, Yongseok;Kim, Seok-Cheol;So, Kyu-Ho
    • Journal of Climate Change Research
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    • v.5 no.1
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    • pp.13-19
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    • 2014
  • In the past, Korea agro-climatic zone except Jeju-do was classified into nineteen based on rice culture by using air temperature, precipitation, and sunshine duration etc. during rice growing periods. It has been used for selecting safety zone of rice cultivation and countermeasures to meteorological disasters. In this study, the climatic variables such as air temperature, precipitation, and sunshine duration of twenty agro-climatic zones including Jeju-do were compared decennially (1970's, 1980's, 1990's, and 2000's). The meteorological data were obtained in Meteorological Information Portal Service System-Disaster Prevention, Korea Meteorological Administration. The temperature of 1970s, 1980s, 1990s, and 2000s were $12.0{\pm}0.14^{\circ}C$, $11.9{\pm}0.13^{\circ}C$, $12.2{\pm}0.14^{\circ}C$, and $12.6{\pm}0.13^{\circ}C$, respectively. The precipitation of 1970s, 1980s, 1990s, and 2000s were $1,270.3{\pm}20.05mm$, $1,343.0{\pm}26.01mm$, $1,350.6{\pm}27.13mm$, and $1,416.8{\pm}24.87mm$, respectively. And the sunshine duration of 1970s, 1980s, 1990s, and 2000s were $421.7{\pm}18.37hours$, $2,352.4{\pm}15.01hours$, $2,196.3{\pm}12.32hours$, and $2,146.8{\pm}15.37hours$, respectively. The temperature in Middle-Inland zone ($+1.2^{\circ}C$) and Eastern-Southern zone ($+1.1^{\circ}C$) remarkably increased. The temperature increased most in Taebak highly Cold zone ($+364mm$) and Taebak moderately Cold Zone ($+326mm$). The sunshine duration decreased most in Middle-Inland Zone (-995 hours). The temperature (F=2.708, df=3, p= 0.046) and precipitation (F=5.037, df=3, p=0.002) increased significantly among seasons while the sunshine duration decreased significantly(F=26.181, df=3, p<0.0001) among seasons. In further study, it will need to reclassify agro-climatic zone of rice and it will need to conduct studies on safe cropping season, growth and developing of rice, and cultivation management system etc. based on reclassified agro-climatic zone.

Future hydrological changes in Jeju Island based on CMIP6 climate change scenarios (CMIP6 기후변화 시나리오에 따른 제주도 지역의 미래 수문변화 전망)

  • Kim, Chul-Gyum;Cho, Jaepil;Lee, Jeong Eun;Chang, Sunwoo
    • Journal of Korea Water Resources Association
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    • v.56 no.11
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    • pp.737-749
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    • 2023
  • In this study, we analyzed the hydrological impacts of future climate change on Jeju Island using SSP-based climate change scenarios from 18 climate models and watershed modeling (SWAT-K). Despite discrepancies among climate models, we generally observed an increase in evapotranspiration due to rising future temperatures. Furthermore, a significant increase in runoff and recharge was noted due to increased precipitation. These increasing trends were particularly pronounced in the SSP5-8.5 scenario, and differences among GCM models became more significant in the late 21 century. When compared to the historical period (1981-2010), the projected changes for the far-future period (2071-2100) in the SSP5-8.5 scenario showed a 21.4% increase in precipitation, a 19.2% increase in evapotranspiration, a 40.9% increase in runoff, and a 16.6% increase in recharge on an annual average basis. On a monthly basis in the SSP5-8.5 scenario, precipitation was expected to increase by 24.5% in September, evapotranspiration by 34.1% in April, runoff by 58.1% in October, and recharge by 33.8% in September. To further assess projections based on extreme climate scenarios, we selected two models, CanESM5 and ACCESS-ESM1-5, which represented the maximum and minimum future precipitation forecasts, and compared the hydrological changes in the future scenarios. The results indicated that runoff and recharge rates were relatively higher in the CanESM5 model with the highest precipitation forecast, while evapotranspiration rates were higher in the ACCESS-ESM1-5 model with the lowest precipitation forecast. Based on the climate change scenarios used in this study, the overall available water resources on Jeju Island are more likely to increase. However, since results vary by season and region depending on the climate model and scenario, it is considered necessary to conduct a comprehensive analysis and develop response measures using various scenarios.

Future water quality analysis of the Anseongcheon River basin, Korea under climate change

  • Kim, Deokwhan;Kim, Jungwook;Joo, Hongjun;Han, Daegun;Kim, Hung Soo
    • Membrane and Water Treatment
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    • v.10 no.1
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    • pp.1-11
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    • 2019
  • The Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) Fifth Assessment Report (AR5) predicted that recent extreme hydrological events would affect water quality and aggravate various forms of water pollution. To analyze changes in water quality due to future climate change, input data (precipitation, average temperature, relative humidity, average wind speed and sunlight) were established using the Representative Concentration Pathways (RCP) 8.5 climate change scenario suggested by the AR5 and calculated the future runoff for each target period (Reference:1989-2015; I: 2016-2040; II: 2041-2070; and III: 2071-2099) using the semi-distributed land use-based runoff processes (SLURP) model. Meteorological factors that affect water quality (precipitation, temperature and runoff) were inputted into the multiple linear regression analysis (MLRA) and artificial neural network (ANN) models to analyze water quality data, dissolved oxygen (DO), biological oxygen demand (BOD), chemical oxygen demand (COD), suspended solids (SS), total nitrogen (T-N) and total phosphorus (T-P). Future water quality prediction of the Anseongcheon River basin shows that DO at Gongdo station in the river will drop by 35% in autumn by the end of the $21^{st}$ century and that BOD, COD and SS will increase by 36%, 20% and 42%, respectively. Analysis revealed that the oxygen demand at Dongyeongyo station will decrease by 17% in summer and BOD, COD and SS will increase by 30%, 12% and 17%, respectively. This study suggests that there is a need to continuously monitor the water quality of the Anseongcheon River basin for long-term management. A more reliable prediction of future water quality will be achieved if various social scenarios and climate data are taken into consideration.

A Study on Characteristics of Climate Variability and Changes in Weather Indexes in Busan Since 1904 (1904년 이래의 부산 기후 변동성 및 생활기상지수들의 기후변화 특성 연구)

  • Ha-Eun Jeon;Kyung-Ja Ha;Hye-Ryeom Kim
    • Atmosphere
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    • v.33 no.1
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    • pp.1-20
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    • 2023
  • Holding the longest observation data from April 1904, Busan is one of the essential points to understand the climate variability of the Korean Peninsula without missing data since implementing the modern weather observation of the South Korea. Busan is featured by coastal areas and affected by various climate factors and fluctuations. This study aims to investigate climate variability and changes in climatic variables, extremes, and several weather indexes. The statistically significant change points in daily mean rainfall intensity and temperature were found in 1964 and 1965. Based on the change point detection, 117 years were divided into two periods for daily mean rainfall intensity and temperature, respectively. In the long-term temperature analysis of Busan, the increasing trend of the daily maximum temperature during the period of 1965~2021 was larger than the daily mean temperature and the daily minimum temperature. Applying Ensemble Empirical Mode Decomposition, daily maximum temperature is largely affected by the decadal variability compared to the daily mean and minimum temperature. In addition, the trend of daily precipitation intensity from 1964~2021 shows a value of about 0.50 mm day-1, suggesting that the rainfall intensity has increased compared to the preceding period. The results in extremes analysis demonstrate that return values of both extreme temperatures and precipitation show higher values in the latter than in the former period, indicating that the intensity of the current extreme phenomenon increases. For Wet-Bulb Globe Temperature (effective humidity), increasing (decreasing) trend is significant in Busan with the second (third)-largest change among four stations.

Analysis of Phenological Changes by Phenocams on Some Major Species Distributed in Wetland and Forest Ecosystems in Korea (Phenocam을 활용한 국내 습지 및 산림생태계 대표 수종의 계절적 변화 분석)

  • Minki Hong;Hyohyemi Lee;Jeong-Soo Park
    • Ecology and Resilient Infrastructure
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    • v.10 no.4
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    • pp.226-236
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    • 2023
  • As climate change intensifies, the importance of studying plant phenology has increased, leading to a surge in research employing automated video recording devices like Phenocams. In this study, using the Phenocams operated by the National Institute of Ecology, we examined the trends in plant phenological changes across diverse ecosystem types in South Korea and analyzed their correlations with climate factors. The patterns of plant phenological changes varied by region and tree species. Pinus thunbergii and Pinus densiflora typically show an overall increase in their growth period, positively correlating with temperatures and precipitation during winter. However, uniquely, for Abies koreana on Hallasan Mt., a higher amount of precipitation in August leads to an earlier end of season (eos), and the correlation analysis with the recent phenomenon of dying A. Koreana seems necessary. beyond the analysis, solutions for handling missing data issues during the data collection process were proposed. Furthermore, to expand future research scope and encompass diverse ecosystem types, a suggestion to combine Phenocam research with satellite observations was presented.