• 대한원격탐사학회지
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• 제28권3호
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• pp.267-276
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• 2012

Terminal lakes are widely distributed in the arid and semi-arid Gobi of Mongolia, and serves as important water resource for local people and livestock. However, such lakes are subject to great fluctuations in its size depending on climatic conditions and human water utilization. The Orog Lake is one such example that has shown remarkable fluctuation in recent years. In this study, we investigated the temporal changes of Orog Lake surface area by using 16-day MODIS 250 m NDVI products from 2000 to 2010. The results were compared with climate variability represented by monthly precipitation and temperature. Our results show that the Orog Lake gradually shrank for the period from 2000 to 2010, but with a significant range of seasonal and inter-annual variability. The lake area showed considerable seasonal variations, as it expanded in spring and fall, primarily due to snow melt and summer precipitation, respectively. Extreme drought period from 2000 to 2002 triggered the substantial reduction in lake area, leading to dry-up in year 2005, 2006, 2007, and 2009. After dry-up once occurred in 2005, the lake repeated reappearance and disappearance depending on seasonal and annual precipitation. Our findings implicate that the ground water fluctuated around the lake bottom level since 2005. This suggests the highly vulnerable nature of Orog lake, which greatly depends on future precipitation change.

• 대기
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• 제27권4호
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• pp.435-444
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• 2017

By analyzing Asian Precipitation-Highly-Resolved Observational Data Integration Towards Evaluation (APHRODITE) from May to September for 1951~2007, this study investigates impacts of two dominant boreal summer intraseasonal oscillation (BSISO) modes on precipitation over Monsoon Asia including Korea and long-term change of 10~20-day and 30~60-day ISO over Korea. It is shown that BSISO strongly modulates rainfall variability over the many part of Monsoon Asia including Korea. Korea tends to have more (less) rainfall during the phases 3~5 (7~8) of BSISO1 representing the canonical northward/northeastward propagating 30~60-day ISO and during the phases 6~8 (3~5) of BSISO2 representing the northward/northwestward propagating 10~20-day ISO. It is found that the 10~20-day ISO variability contributes to summer mean rainfall variability more than 30~60-day ISO over Korea. For the 57 years of 1951~2007, the correlation coefficient between the May to September mean precipitation anomaly and standard deviation of 10~20-day (30~60-day) ISO is 0.71 (0.46). It is further noted that there is a significant increasing trend in the 10~20-day and 30~60-day ISO variability in the rainy season during the period of 1951 to 2007.

• 한국토양비료학회지
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• 제47권1호
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• pp.48-58
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• 2014

In order to evaluate water balance at upland according to RCP8.5 climate change scenario distributed by Korean Meteorological Administration (KMA), we simulated soil moisture using estimation model, called AFKAE0.5 for 66 sites from 2011 to 2020, and established the water balance maps. The amount of annual average precipitation by RCP8.5 scenario was highest in 2016 as recorded 2,062 mm and lowest in 2011 with 1,134 mm. As result of analysis for monthly precipitation and runoff, the amounts of precipitation and runoff have been especially intensive in July in 2014, 2016, 2019, and 2020. Overall, the area of Kyeongbuk and Gyeonggi was estimated more dried status of soil compared with precipitation. Except 2015 and 2020, soil water balance was recorded as negative value in other years which was calculated by subtracting output from input. The status of soil moisture was the most dry in 2020 among those in other years.

• 한국수자원학회논문집
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• 제49권3호
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• pp.197-205
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• 2016

최근 기후변화로 인한 자연재해가 증가하면서 강수 및 기온자료의 시계열에 대한 변동성과 추세를 분석하여 그 변화를 예측하는 연구의 필요성이 점점 커지고 있다. 하지만 강수나 기온의 경우 복합적인 요소에 의해 변동이 일어나 자료의 변동성이 매우 심하고 너무 많은 요소를 포함하게 되어 그 특성을 정확히 판단하기가 쉽지 않다. 따라서 자료의 시계열을 분해하게 되면 각 특성을 가진 요소를 추출할 수 있으므로, 정확한 변동 특성을 파악할 수 있다. 본 연구에서는 우리나라 강수 및 기온자료를 경험적 모드분해법(Empirical Mode Decomposition, EMD)을 통해 주기별로 분해하여 각각의 내재모드함수(Intrinsic Mode Function, IMF)를 추출하였다. 또한, 추출된 내재모드함수의 에너지 밀도를 이용한 유의성 검정을 통해 원자료로부터 유의미한 자료를 포함하고 있는 내재모드함수를 선별하고, 이들의 주기성, 경향성을 분석하였다.

• 대기
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• 제28권1호
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• pp.85-97
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• 2018

This study evaluates the performance of the Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) model in reproducing the present-day (1981~2005) precipitation over Far East Asia and South Korea. The WRF model is configured with 25-km horizontal resolution within the context of the COordinated Regional climate Downscaling Experiment (CORDEX) - East Asia Phase 2. The initial and lateral boundary forcing for the WRF simulation are derived from European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecast Interim reanalysis. According to our results, WRF model shows a reasonable performance to reproduce the features of precipitation, such as seasonal climatology, annual and inter-annual variabilities, seasonal march of monsoon rainfall and extreme precipitation. In spite of such model's ability to simulate major features of precipitation, systematic biases are found in the downscaled simulation in some sub-regions and seasons. In particular, the WRF model systematically tends to overestimate (underestimate) precipitation over Far East Asia (South Korea), and relatively large biases are evident during the summer season. In terms of inter-annual variability, WRF shows an overall smaller (larger) standard deviation in the Far East Asia (South Korea) compared to observation. In addition, WRF overestimates the frequency and amount of weak precipitation, but underestimates those of heavy precipitation. Also, the number of wet days, the precipitation intensity above the 95 percentile, and consecutive wet days (consecutive dry days) are overestimated (underestimated) over eastern (western) part of South Korea. The results of this study can be used as reference data when providing information about projections of fine-scale climate change over East Asia.

• 대한토목학회논문집
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• 제31권3B호
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• pp.265-276
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• 2011

한반도와 제주를 포함한 전국의 강우 자료와 국가지하수위 관측소에 관측된 지하수위 관측 자료를 수집하였다. 강우와 지하수위의 관계를 분석한 후 강우자료를 이용하여 이동평균을 취한 후 지하수위와의 상관관계를 분석하였다. 또한 유역평균 일최대침투량인 한계침투량을 고려한 후, 강우이동평균과 지하수위간의 상관계수를 산정하였다. 한계침투량 고려시 상관계수가 0.6 이상인 곳을 최종적으로 선정하였고, 선정된 지역의 공통점과 지역 특성에 따른 차이점 등을 비교 분석하였다. 총 26개 지역이 선정되었고 행정구역별로 경기도가 4개소, 강원도가 4개소, 충청도가 5개소, 전라도가 3개소, 경상도가 9개소, 제주도가 1개소이다. 상관계수가 높을수록 강우사상 발생에 따른 지하수위 변동은 뚜렷하게 나타났으며, 강우와 상관없는 요인에 의한 지하수위의 변동이 거의 없는 것으로 나타났다. 본 연구를 토대로 강우 예측 시나리오를 활용한다면 상관계수가 높은 지역에서 지하수위 또한 예측이 가능할 것으로 기대된다.

• 한국방재학회 논문집
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• 제9권6호
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• pp.99-109
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• 2009

본 연구에서는 강원도내 정확한 극치강수분포를 파악하여 최근 증가하고 있는 재해를 예방하고자 지역빈도해석 방법을 이용하여 산정한 확률강수량과 공간분석을 통하여 강원도의 강수분포를 분석하였다. 강수자료는 강원도내 기상청 관할의 66개 관측소의 자료를 사용하였다. 지역빈도해석결과 GLO 분포형이 강원도에 가장 적합한 분포형으로 나타났다. 강수분포를 지속기간별로 분석한 결과 지속기간이 증가할수록 설악동, 대관령 및 청일 일원에서 높은 확률강수량을 나타내었으며, 지속기간에 따라서 강수의 공간분포가 확연히 변화됨을 확인하였다. 또한 재현기간별로 분석한 결과 재현기간이 길어질수록 지역별 강수 특성이 강하게 나타났다. 강원도 강수분포를 공간분석한 결과 영동지방에서는 일관적으로 높은 강수량이 발생하였으나 영서지방에서는 지속기간 및 재현기간에 따라 다양한 분포를 나타내었다. 따라서 지역별 강수량의 보다 정확한 예측을 위해서는 지역빈도해석 이외에 다양한 지리 및 기상조건을 고려할 수 있는 모형에 대한 연구가 필요할 것으로 판단된다.

• 한국농공학회논문집
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• 제54권4호
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• pp.105-114
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• 2012

Soil moisture plays a pivotal role in hydrological processes, especially in the forest which covers more than 64% of the national land. Soil moisture was monitored to analyze soil moisture change characteristics in terms of time and soil layers in this study. 2 Years soil moisture change data was obtained from the experimental nut pine forest and statistical analysis including auto-correlation and cross-corelation among soil moisture data from different soil layers was conducted. Using the monitored soil moisture data, a relationship between soil moisture change and precipitation was analyzed and seasonal soil moisture change characteristics were analyzed. From the result of inter-relationships among soil layers in terms of season and time lag, soil moisture change characteristics in the nut pine forest were upper soil layers were much sensitive than lowers, and seasonal variation if soil moisture for upper soil layers were bigger than lowers showing low correlation with precipitation in winter and spring due to freezing and snowfalls.

• 한국수자원학회:학술대회논문집
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• 한국수자원학회 2019년도 학술발표회
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• pp.146-146
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• 2019

The aridity index, which is determined as the ratio of potential evapotranspiration to precipitation, is one of key parameters in drought characterization. Whereas the evaporative index, which is defined as the ratio of actual evapotranspiration to precipitation, represents the fraction of available water consumed by the evapotranspiration process. This study investigates variation of the aridity and evaporative indexes due to climate change during the 21st century in South Korea. Estimations of the aridity and evaporative indexes are obtained using SWAT mode based on ensemble of 13 different GCMs over 5 large basins of South Korea for 2 RCP scenarios (RCP 4.5 and RCP 8.5). The results shows the opposite trends of the two indexes, where the aridity index is projected as always increase, while the evaporative index is expected to decrease in all of 3 future period (2011-1940, 1941-1970, 1971-2099). The estimated results also suggest that land cover influenced significantly evapotranspiration along with the change of climate. The study indicates that South Korea will be facing with a high risk of water scarcity in future due to climate change, which is seriously challenging for water planing and management in the country.

• 한국수자원학회논문집
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• 제49권2호
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• pp.107-119
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• 2016

미래 기후변화 시나리오에 따르면 극한강우사상이 현재보다 더 강화될 것으로 전망되기 때문에, 기후변화의 영향이 추정절차에 반영되지 않는다면 가능최대강수량(PMPs)을 과소 추정하게 될 가능성이 매우 높다. 본 연구에서는 미래의 강우 변동이 반영된 PMPs가 추정된다. PMPs 계산을 위하여 수문기상학적 방법이 이용되며, 기존에 사용되어오던 지형영향비를 대신하여 산악전이비가 가능최대강수량의 산정에 적용된다. 미래 주요호우사상들로부터의 DAD는 기상청 RCM (HEDGEM3-RA) RCP 8.5 기후변화 시나리오의 일 강수자료를 기반으로 편의보정 및 이동평균 된 변화인자를 이용하여 간접적으로 산출된다. 미래 PMPs 산출결과, 현재보다 증가하는 것으로 나타났으며 증가율은 2045년 기준으로 평균적으로 연간 3 mm 정도 증가하는 것으로 예측되었으며, 먼 미래로 갈수록 PMPs의 증가율은 커졌으나 미래강우자료로부터 유발되는 PMPs 추정의 불확실성 또한 증가되고 있는 것으로 파악된다.