• Title/Summary/Keyword: Power Load Forecasting

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An Survey on the Power System Modeling using a Clustering Algorithm (클러스터링 기법을 적용한 전력시스템 모델링에 관한 사례 조사)

  • Park, Young-Soo;Kim, Jin-Ho
    • Proceedings of the KIEE Conference
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    • 2006.07a
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    • pp.410-411
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    • 2006
  • This paper is focused on the survey on the power system modeling using a clustering algorithm. In electricity markets, clustering method is a efficient tool to model the power system. It can be seen that electricity markets can also be classified into several groups which show similar patterns and that the fundamental characteristics of power systems can be widely applicable to other technical problems in power system such as generation scheduling, power flow analysis, short-term load forecasting, and so on. There are several researches on the power system modeling using a clustering algorithm. We specially surveyed their own clustering methods to model the power system.

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Scenario Analysis of Natural Gas Demand for Electricity Generation in Korea (전력수급기본계획의 불확실성과 CO2 배출 목표를 고려한 발전용 천연가스 장기전망과 대책)

  • Park, Jong-Bae;Roh, Jea Hyung
    • The Transactions of The Korean Institute of Electrical Engineers
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    • v.63 no.11
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    • pp.1503-1510
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    • 2014
  • This study organizes scenarios on the power supply plans and electricity load forecasts considering their uncertainties and estimates natural gas quantity for electricity generation, total electricity supply cost and air pollutant emission of each scenario. Also the analysis is performed to check the properness of government's natural gas demand forecast and the possibility of achieving the government's CO2 emission target with the current plan and other scenarios. In result, no scenario satisfies the government's CO2 emission target and the natural gas demand could be doubled to the government's forecast. As under-forecast of natural gas demand has caused the increased natural gas procurement cost, it is required to consider uncertainties of power plant construction plan and electricity demand forecast in forecasting the natural gas demand. In addition, it is found that CO2 emission target could be achieved by enlarging natural gas use and demand-side management without big increase of total costs.

Energy Forecasting Information System of Optimal Electricity Generation using Fuzzy-based RERNN with GPC

  • Elumalaivasan Poongavanam;Padmanathan Kasinathan;Karunanithi Kandasamy;S. P. Raja
    • KSII Transactions on Internet and Information Systems (TIIS)
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    • v.17 no.10
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    • pp.2701-2717
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    • 2023
  • In this paper, a hybrid fuzzy-based method is suggested for determining India's best system for power generation. This suggested approach was created using a fuzzy-based combination of the Giza Pyramids Construction (GPC) and Recalling-Enhanced Recurrent Neural Network (RERNN). GPC is a meta-heuristic algorithm that deals with solutions for many groups of problems, whereas RERNN has selective memory properties. The evaluation of the current load requirements and production profile information system is the main objective of the suggested method. The Central Electricity Authority database, the Indian National Load Dispatch Centre, regional load dispatching centers, and annual reports of India were some of the sources used to compile the data regarding profiles of electricity loads, capacity factors, power plant generation, and transmission limits. The RERNN approach makes advantage of the ability to analyze the ideal power generation from energy data, however the optimization of RERNN factor necessitates the employment of a GPC technique. The proposed method was tested using MATLAB, and the findings indicate that it is effective in terms of accuracy, feasibility, and computing efficiency. The suggested hybrid system outperformed conventional models, achieving the top result of 93% accuracy with a shorter computation time of 6814 seconds.

A Study on the Optimal Unit Commitment Algorithm for Electric Power Systems (전력계통의 최적 발전기기동정지계획 산법에 관한 연구)

  • 김준현;유인근
    • The Transactions of the Korean Institute of Electrical Engineers
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    • v.34 no.6
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    • pp.220-229
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    • 1985
  • This paper proposes a new optimal unit commitment algorithm for the rational operation of electric power systems. Especially, the algorithm is improved by considering transmission line capacity limits and load forecasting uncertainty with the consideration of the participation factors of each units, so that the method becomes more reliable and flexible one. The transmission losses are considered by using updated penalty factors obtained from the constant matrixes of the fast decoupled load flow method, the system loads are distributed at each buses, and the several necessary operational constraints are also considered for the purpose of presenting a more practicable scheme. Finally, the effectiveness of the proposed algorithm has been demonstrated by applying to the 23-bus model system.

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Database Design for the Power System Load Forecasting (전력계통 수요예측을 위한 데이터베이스 설계)

  • Park, Jeong-Do;Song, Kyung-Bin;Baek, Young-Shik
    • Proceedings of the KIEE Conference
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    • 2003.07a
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    • pp.80-82
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    • 2003
  • 전력계통의 수요예측은 수십 년간의 일별, 주별, 월별, 년도별 자료와 기타 수많은 계수들을 요구하므로 처리해야할 자료의 양이 방대하여, 수요예측에는 데이터베이스의 사용이 필수이다. 본 연구에서는 수요예측 및 이와 유사한 대규모 자료의 전산화에 적합한 데이터베이스 설계기법을 소개하고, 계산 수행 시 속도 및 운용의 효율성을 기하기 위한 방안을 소개한다. 또한 데이터베이스의 유지보수를 위한 기법과 각종 접근 방법의 예를 들었다.

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Identification of fuzzy Model using Back-propagation : Electric Power Load Forecasting (역전파학습을 이용한 퍼지모델의 파라메터 동정: 전력부하 예측)

  • 김이곤;류영재;김홍렬;박창석;곽호철
    • Proceedings of the Korean Institute of Intelligent Systems Conference
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    • 1995.10b
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    • pp.186-192
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    • 1995
  • 본 연구에서는 퍼지 클러스터링 알고리즘과 변수선택 방법을 이용하여 모델의 구조 동정을 행하고, 신경회로망의 Back-propagation 학습방법을 이용하여 파라메터동정을 행하 는 새로운 퍼지모델링 알고리즘을 제안하였다. 실제 데이터를 이용하여 전력부하예측시스템 을 설계하였으며 그 결과 타당성을 입증하였다.

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Design of Electric Power Load Forecasting System Using Fuzzy Logic (퍼지 이론을 이용한 전력부하 예측시스템의 설계)

  • 김이곤
    • The Proceedings of the Korean Institute of Illuminating and Electrical Installation Engineers
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    • v.8 no.3
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    • pp.44-53
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    • 1994
  • 전력 부하의 예측은 산업 활동에 있어 전력의 안정적인 공급과 생산비의 절감을 위해 대단히 중요하다. 전력 부하의 예측 방법들이 많이 연구되고 있으나 기존의 방법들은 수학적으로 복잡하고 계산 시간이 많이 소요되는 단점을 갖고 있다. 본 연구에서는 최적 규칙수를 구하는 클러스터링 알고리즘과 데이터를 2분하여 설계한 변수 선택 방법을 이용하여 모델을 간략화하는 알고리즘을 제안하였으며, CMAC을 이용한 데이터의 양·부 판별 알고리즘을 이용하므로써 노이즈의 영향을 최소화 하였다. 제안된 알고리즘을 이용하여 전력부하예측 시스템을 설계하고 분석한 결과 그 타당성을 입증하였다.

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Short-Term Load Forecasting Model Development Through Analysis on Power Demand during Chuseok Holiday (추석 연휴 전력수요 특성 분석을 통한 단기수요 예측 모형 개발)

  • Kwon, Oh-Sung;Park, R.;Song, K.;Joo, Sung-Kwan;Park, Jeong-Do;Cho, Burm-Sup;Shin, Ki-Jun;Lee, Ik-Jong
    • Proceedings of the KIEE Conference
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    • 2011.07a
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    • pp.608-609
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    • 2011
  • 전력수요 예측 오차가 큰 추석 연휴 및 전, 후일 전력수요 예측의 정확성을 향상시키기 위해 과거 추석 연휴 및 전, 후일에 대한 전력수요 특성을 분석하고 최대/최소 전력 예측을 위한 퍼지 입력데이터 선정 방법과 24시간 예측을 위한 정규화에 필요한 입력 데이터 선정방법을 개발하여 퍼지 선형회귀분석 모델을 사용하여 2006년에서 2010년까지 5개년의 사례연구를 통해 알고리즘의 우수성을 검증하였다.

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hydraulic-power generation of electricity plan of multi-Purpose dam in electric Power system (전력계통에서의 다목적댐 수력발전계획)

  • Kim, Seung-Hyo;Ko, Young-Hoan;Hwang, In-Kwang
    • Proceedings of the KIEE Conference
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    • 1999.07c
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    • pp.1248-1252
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    • 1999
  • To provide electricity power of good quality, it is essential to establish generation of electricity plan in electric power system based on accurate power-demand prediction and cope with changes of power-need fluctuating constantly. The role of hydraulic-power generation of electricity in electric power system is of importance because responding to electric power-demand counts or reservoir-type hydraulic-power generation of electricity which is designed for additional load in electric power system. So hydraulic-power generation of electricity must have fast start reserve. But the amount of water, resources of reservoir-type hydraulic-power generation of electricity is restricted and multi-used, so the scheduling of management by exact forecasting the amount of water is critical. That is why efficient hydraulic-power generation of electricity makes a main role on pumping up the utility of energy and water resource. This thesis introduced the example of optimal generation of electricity plan establishment which is used in managing reservoir-type hydraulic-power generation of electricity.

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Yearly Load Forecasting Algorithm for Annual Electric Energy Supply Plan (전력수급계획을 위한 연간수요예측 산법)

  • Hwang, Kab-Ju;Ju, Haeng-Ro;Yi, Myoung-Hee;Ahn, Dae-Hoon
    • Proceedings of the KIEE Conference
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    • 2006.07a
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    • pp.76-77
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    • 2006
  • 본 연구를 통하여 전력수급계획에 필요한 연간 시간대별 총수요를 예측하는 산법을 개발하였다. 예측과정은 크게 평상일 예측과 특수일 예측으로 구분된다. 평상일의 경우는, 연중 최대수요가 발생하는 하절기 기상으로부터 연중 최대수요를 예측한 다음, 하향식 접근에 의해 주간-일간-시간대별 평상일 수요를 예측하며, 특수일 수요는 예측된 평상일 수요와 평상일 대비 상대계수 모형으로부터 예측한다. 예측의 정확도를 개선하기 위하여 시계열 자료에 가중치를 부여하고, 실적자료가 생길 때마다 자동으로 모형이 갱신되도록 하였으며, 수요예측 결과를 검증, 보정하기 위해 주간수요예측을 재수행할 수 있다. 또한 계획된 월간 전력량 제약에 협조하는 예측산법도 포함하였다.

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