• Journal of Ecology and Environment
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• v.45 no.4
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• pp.277-286
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• 2021

Background: As trade increases, the influx of various alien species and their spread to new regions are prevalent and no longer a special problem. Anthropogenic activities and climate changes have made the distribution of alien species out of their native range common. As a result, alien species can be easily found anywhere, and they have nothing but only a few differences in intensity. The prevalent distribution of alien species adversely affects the ecosystem, and a strategic management plan must be established to control them effectively. To this end, hot spots and cold spots were analyzed according to the degree of distribution of invasive alien plants, and major environmental factors related to hot spots were found. We analyzed the 10,287 distribution points of 126 species of alien plants collected through the national survey of alien species by the hierarchical model of species communities (HMSC) framework. Results: The explanatory and fourfold cross-validation predictive power of the model were 0.91 and 0.75 as AUC values, respectively. The hot spots of invasive plants were found in the Seoul metropolitan area, Daegu metropolitan city, Chungcheongbuk-do Province, southwest shore, and Jeju island. Generally, the hot spots were found where the higher maximum temperature of summer, precipitation of winter, and road density are observed, but temperature seasonality, annual temperature range, precipitation of the summer, and distance to river and sea were negatively related to the hot spots. According to the model, the functional traits accounted for 55% of the variance explained by the environmental factors. The species with higher specific leaf areas were more found where temperature seasonality was low. Taller species preferred the bigger annual temperature range. The heavier seed mass was only preferred when the max temperature of summer exceeded 29 ℃. Conclusions: In this study, hot spots were places where 2.1 times more alien plants were distributed on average than non-hot spots (33.5 vs 15.7 species). The hot spots of invasive plants were expected to appear in less stressful climate conditions, such as low fluctuation of temperature and precipitation. Also, the disturbance by anthropogenic factors or water flow had positive influences on the hot spots. These results were consistent with the previous reports about the ruderal or competitive strategies of invasive plants instead of the stress-tolerant strategy. The functional traits are closely related to the ecological strategies of plants by shaping the response of species to various environmental filters, and our result confirmed this. Therefore, in order to effectively control alien plants, it is judged that the occurrence of disturbed sites in which alien plants can grow in large quantities is minimized, and the river management of waterfronts is required.

• Journal of the Korean Society for Marine Environment & Energy
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• v.16 no.3
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• pp.202-210
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• 2013

As incomes increase, interest in ocean leisure picks up. As a result, a lot of research and developments on hull form design and production of planing boats, mostly used for ocean leisure, are needed. Analysis in researches on resistance of planing boats shows that resistance characteristic of planing boats is different from resistance characteristic of general boats because the former is fast, and its wetted surface is very small. Using Savitsky formula widely used in the calculation of effective horse power in shipbuildingyards, and propulsion system and engine manufacturers, this study calculated total resistance of a research planing boat. Then it analyzed the flow characteristics of the planing boat through theoretical analysis and wind tunnel experiment, and computed air resistance and lift force by changes of speed and trim angle. It also compared and analyzed result of theoretical analysis and experiment of the ratio of air resistance to total resistance under variations of velocity and trim angle. When the study is used to estimate more accurate effective horse power, it is expected to remedy abuses of unnecessarily installing high-powered engine. As nature disasters due to abnormal changes of weather increase, interest in greenhouse gas grows. International Maritime Organization (IMO) legislated Energy Efficiency Design Index (EEDI) and Energy Efficiency Operational Indicator (EEOI) to reduce ship greenhouse gas emissions. But this index will be applied to over 400 tons ships, small ships, emitting more greenhouse gases than larege ships per unit power, will dodge the regulations. Thus, this study indicated a problem by calculating greenhouse gas emissions of an ocean leisure planning boat (a small ship), and suggested the need for EEDI of small ships.

• Journal of Intelligence and Information Systems
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• v.24 no.4
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• pp.1-32
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• 2018

In addition to stakeholders including managers, employees, creditors, and investors of bankrupt companies, corporate defaults have a ripple effect on the local and national economy. Before the Asian financial crisis, the Korean government only analyzed SMEs and tried to improve the forecasting power of a default prediction model, rather than developing various corporate default models. As a result, even large corporations called 'chaebol enterprises' become bankrupt. Even after that, the analysis of past corporate defaults has been focused on specific variables, and when the government restructured immediately after the global financial crisis, they only focused on certain main variables such as 'debt ratio'. A multifaceted study of corporate default prediction models is essential to ensure diverse interests, to avoid situations like the 'Lehman Brothers Case' of the global financial crisis, to avoid total collapse in a single moment. The key variables used in corporate defaults vary over time. This is confirmed by Beaver (1967, 1968) and Altman's (1968) analysis that Deakins'(1972) study shows that the major factors affecting corporate failure have changed. In Grice's (2001) study, the importance of predictive variables was also found through Zmijewski's (1984) and Ohlson's (1980) models. However, the studies that have been carried out in the past use static models. Most of them do not consider the changes that occur in the course of time. Therefore, in order to construct consistent prediction models, it is necessary to compensate the time-dependent bias by means of a time series analysis algorithm reflecting dynamic change. Based on the global financial crisis, which has had a significant impact on Korea, this study is conducted using 10 years of annual corporate data from 2000 to 2009. Data are divided into training data, validation data, and test data respectively, and are divided into 7, 2, and 1 years respectively. In order to construct a consistent bankruptcy model in the flow of time change, we first train a time series deep learning algorithm model using the data before the financial crisis (2000~2006). The parameter tuning of the existing model and the deep learning time series algorithm is conducted with validation data including the financial crisis period (2007~2008). As a result, we construct a model that shows similar pattern to the results of the learning data and shows excellent prediction power. After that, each bankruptcy prediction model is restructured by integrating the learning data and validation data again (2000 ~ 2008), applying the optimal parameters as in the previous validation. Finally, each corporate default prediction model is evaluated and compared using test data (2009) based on the trained models over nine years. Then, the usefulness of the corporate default prediction model based on the deep learning time series algorithm is proved. In addition, by adding the Lasso regression analysis to the existing methods (multiple discriminant analysis, logit model) which select the variables, it is proved that the deep learning time series algorithm model based on the three bundles of variables is useful for robust corporate default prediction. The definition of bankruptcy used is the same as that of Lee (2015). Independent variables include financial information such as financial ratios used in previous studies. Multivariate discriminant analysis, logit model, and Lasso regression model are used to select the optimal variable group. The influence of the Multivariate discriminant analysis model proposed by Altman (1968), the Logit model proposed by Ohlson (1980), the non-time series machine learning algorithms, and the deep learning time series algorithms are compared. In the case of corporate data, there are limitations of 'nonlinear variables', 'multi-collinearity' of variables, and 'lack of data'. While the logit model is nonlinear, the Lasso regression model solves the multi-collinearity problem, and the deep learning time series algorithm using the variable data generation method complements the lack of data. Big Data Technology, a leading technology in the future, is moving from simple human analysis, to automated AI analysis, and finally towards future intertwined AI applications. Although the study of the corporate default prediction model using the time series algorithm is still in its early stages, deep learning algorithm is much faster than regression analysis at corporate default prediction modeling. Also, it is more effective on prediction power. Through the Fourth Industrial Revolution, the current government and other overseas governments are working hard to integrate the system in everyday life of their nation and society. Yet the field of deep learning time series research for the financial industry is still insufficient. This is an initial study on deep learning time series algorithm analysis of corporate defaults. Therefore it is hoped that it will be used as a comparative analysis data for non-specialists who start a study combining financial data and deep learning time series algorithm.

• Journal of Intelligence and Information Systems
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• v.25 no.2
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• pp.25-38
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• 2019

Selecting high-quality information that meets the interests and needs of users among the overflowing contents is becoming more important as the generation continues. In the flood of information, efforts to reflect the intention of the user in the search result better are being tried, rather than recognizing the information request as a simple string. Also, large IT companies such as Google and Microsoft focus on developing knowledge-based technologies including search engines which provide users with satisfaction and convenience. Especially, the finance is one of the fields expected to have the usefulness and potential of text data analysis because it's constantly generating new information, and the earlier the information is, the more valuable it is. Automatic knowledge extraction can be effective in areas where information flow is vast, such as financial sector, and new information continues to emerge. However, there are several practical difficulties faced by automatic knowledge extraction. First, there are difficulties in making corpus from different fields with same algorithm, and it is difficult to extract good quality triple. Second, it becomes more difficult to produce labeled text data by people if the extent and scope of knowledge increases and patterns are constantly updated. Third, performance evaluation is difficult due to the characteristics of unsupervised learning. Finally, problem definition for automatic knowledge extraction is not easy because of ambiguous conceptual characteristics of knowledge. So, in order to overcome limits described above and improve the semantic performance of stock-related information searching, this study attempts to extract the knowledge entity by using neural tensor network and evaluate the performance of them. Different from other references, the purpose of this study is to extract knowledge entity which is related to individual stock items. Various but relatively simple data processing methods are applied in the presented model to solve the problems of previous researches and to enhance the effectiveness of the model. From these processes, this study has the following three significances. First, A practical and simple automatic knowledge extraction method that can be applied. Second, the possibility of performance evaluation is presented through simple problem definition. Finally, the expressiveness of the knowledge increased by generating input data on a sentence basis without complex morphological analysis. The results of the empirical analysis and objective performance evaluation method are also presented. The empirical study to confirm the usefulness of the presented model, experts' reports about individual 30 stocks which are top 30 items based on frequency of publication from May 30, 2017 to May 21, 2018 are used. the total number of reports are 5,600, and 3,074 reports, which accounts about 55% of the total, is designated as a training set, and other 45% of reports are designated as a testing set. Before constructing the model, all reports of a training set are classified by stocks, and their entities are extracted using named entity recognition tool which is the KKMA. for each stocks, top 100 entities based on appearance frequency are selected, and become vectorized using one-hot encoding. After that, by using neural tensor network, the same number of score functions as stocks are trained. Thus, if a new entity from a testing set appears, we can try to calculate the score by putting it into every single score function, and the stock of the function with the highest score is predicted as the related item with the entity. To evaluate presented models, we confirm prediction power and determining whether the score functions are well constructed by calculating hit ratio for all reports of testing set. As a result of the empirical study, the presented model shows 69.3% hit accuracy for testing set which consists of 2,526 reports. this hit ratio is meaningfully high despite of some constraints for conducting research. Looking at the prediction performance of the model for each stocks, only 3 stocks, which are LG ELECTRONICS, KiaMtr, and Mando, show extremely low performance than average. this result maybe due to the interference effect with other similar items and generation of new knowledge. In this paper, we propose a methodology to find out key entities or their combinations which are necessary to search related information in accordance with the user's investment intention. Graph data is generated by using only the named entity recognition tool and applied to the neural tensor network without learning corpus or word vectors for the field. From the empirical test, we confirm the effectiveness of the presented model as described above. However, there also exist some limits and things to complement. Representatively, the phenomenon that the model performance is especially bad for only some stocks shows the need for further researches. Finally, through the empirical study, we confirmed that the learning method presented in this study can be used for the purpose of matching the new text information semantically with the related stocks.

• Journal of Physiology & Pathology in Korean Medicine
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• v.17 no.1
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• pp.1-24
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• 2003

This study was done to compile 104 experimental theses which are related to the antitumor and immuno-activating therapies between February 1990 through February 2002. Master's and doctoral theses were dassified by schools, degrees, materials, effects, experimental methods of antitumor and immunoactivity, and results. The following results were obtained from this study : 1. Classifying the theses by the school, 34.6% were presented by Daejeon University, 29.8% by Kyung-hee University and 11.5% by Won-kwang University. Of all theses, 51.0% were aimed for the doctoral degree and 43.3% were for the master's degree. All of three universities have their own cancer centers. 2. Classifying the theses by herb materials, complex prescription accounted for 60.3%, single herb accounted for 24.8% and herbal acupuncture accounted for 14.2%. Considering the key principles of the traditional medicine, complex prescription was much more thoroughly studied than single herb prescription. The results showed that the complex prescription had both antitumor activity and immuno-activating activity, which might reflects on multi-activation mechanisms by complex components. 3. Classifying the theses by the efficacy of herbs examined, in single herb, invigorating spleen and supplementing was 35.5%, expelling toxin and cooling was 29.0%, activating blood flow and removing blood stasis was 12.9%. In herbal acupuncture, invigorating spleen and supplementing was 52.9%, expelling toxin and cooling was 29.4%. In complex prescription, pathogen-free status was 41.9%, strengthening healthy qi to eliminate pathogen was 35.5%, strengthening healthy qi was 22.6%. It is presumed that the antitumor and immunoactivating therapy based on syndrome differentiation is the best way to develop oriental oncology. 4. Classifying the theses by antitumor experiments, cytotoxic effect was 48.1 %, survival time was 48.1 % and change of tumor size was 42.3%. Survival rate was not necessarily correlated with cytotoxicity. These data reflect the characteristic, wholistic nature of the oriental medicine which is based on BRM (biological response modifier). 5. Classifying the theses by immunoactivating experiments, hemolysin titer was 51.0%, hemagglutinin titer was 46.2% and NK cell's activity was 44.2%. In the future studies, an effort to elucidate specific molecular and cellular mechanisms of cytokine production in the body would be crucial. 6. Classifying the theses according to the data in terms of antitumor activity, 50% was evaluated good, 24.0% was excellent, and 15.5% have no effect. In an evaluation of immuno-activating activity, 35.9% was excellent and 18.0% showed a little effect. The index point, as described here, may helps to use experimental data for clinical trials. Changes in index points by varying dosage implicate the importance of oriental medical theory for prescription. 7. In 167 materials, IIP (immunoactivating index point, mean : 3.12±0.07) was significantly higher than AIP(antitumor index point, mean : 2.83±0.07). These data demonstrate that the effect of herb medicine on tumor activity depends more on immunoactivating activity than antitumor activity. This further implies that the development of herbal antitumor drugs must be preceded by the mechanistic understanding of immunoactivating effect. 8. After medline-searching tumor and herb-related articles from NCBI web site, we conclude that most of the studies are primarily focused on biomolecular mechanisms and/or pathways. Henceforth, we need to define the biomolecular mechanisms and/or pathways affected by herbs or complicated prescriptions. 9. Therefore, the most important point of oriental medical oncology is to conned between experimental results and clinical trials. For the public application of herbal therapy to cancer, it is critical to present the data to mass media. 10. To develop the relationship of experimental results and clinical trials, university's cancer clinic must have a long-range plan related to the university laboratories and, at the same time, a regular consortium for this relationship is imperative. 11. After all these efforts, a new type herbal medicine for cancer therapy which is to take care of the long-term administering and safety problem must be developed. Then, it would be expected that anti-tumor herbal acupuncture can improve clinical symptoms and quality of life (QOL) for cancer patients. 12. Finally, oriental medical cancer center must be constructed in NCC (National Cancer Center) or government agency for the development of oriental medical oncology which has international competitive power.

• Science of Emotion and Sensibility
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• v.21 no.2
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• pp.101-112
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• 2018

This study was carried out to enhance the competitiveness of blackbox design for domestic and international companies, based on the explosive growth of the blackbox market due to development of blackbox design for vehicle accident prevention and post-treatment. In the past, the blackbox market has produced products indiscriminately to meet the ever-increasing demand of consumers. Therefore, we thought a new design method was necessary to effectively investigate the needs of rapidly changing consumers. In this study, we aimed to identify the best-selling blackbox to understand the design flow, and the optimum area for a blackbox, considering the uniqueness of associated vehicle. Based on discussion with blackbox design experts, we studied the direction of design and the problems with blackbox use, which were reflected in blackbox development. Through this research, two types of design - leading blackbox (A type) and mass production blackbox (B type) - were proposed for compatibility of the blackbox with the car. The leading type of blackbox was positioned so that it was wrapped with the room mirror hinge before the screw was fastened, in order to achieve an integrated design. Therefore, we designed an integrated form and resolved the placement problem of an adhesive blackbox. To blend, the mass production blackbox implemented material and surface processing in the same way with the car, and adopted the slide structure to automatically turn off the main body power when removing the SDcard, reflecting consumer needs. This study considers evolving consumer needs through a case study and collective intelligence and deals with implementation of the whole design process during mass production. In this study, we aimed to strengthen the competitiveness of the blackbox design based on design method and its realization.

• Korean Security Journal
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• no.39
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• pp.319-353
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• 2014

Cyber-based technologies are now ubiquitous around the glob and are emerging as an "instrument of power" in societies, and are becoming more available to a country's opponents, who may use it to attack, degrade, and disrupt communications and the flow of information. The globe-spanning range of cyberspace and no national borders will challenge legal systems and complicate a nation's ability to deter threats and respond to contingencies. Through cyberspace, competitive powers will target industry, academia, government, as well as the military in the air, land, maritime, and space domains of our nations. Enemies in cyberspace will include both states and non-states and will range from the unsophisticated amateur to highly trained professional hackers. In much the same way that airpower transformed the battlefield of World War II, cyberspace has fractured the physical barriers that shield a nation from attacks on its commerce and communication. Cyberthreats to the infrastructure and other assets are a growing concern to policymakers. In 2013 Cyberwarfare was, for the first time, considered a larger threat than Al Qaeda or terrorism, by many U.S. intelligence officials. The new United States military strategy makes explicit that a cyberattack is casus belli just as a traditional act of war. The Economist describes cyberspace as "the fifth domain of warfare and writes that China, Russia, Israel and North Korea. Iran are boasting of having the world's second-largest cyber-army. Entities posing a significant threat to the cybersecurity of critical infrastructure assets include cyberterrorists, cyberspies, cyberthieves, cyberwarriors, and cyberhacktivists. These malefactors may access cyber-based technologies in order to deny service, steal or manipulate data, or use a device to launch an attack against itself or another piece of equipment. However because the Internet offers near-total anonymity, it is difficult to discern the identity, the motives, and the location of an intruder. The scope and enormity of the threats are not just focused to private industry but also to the country's heavily networked critical infrastructure. There are many ongoing efforts in government and industry that focus on making computers, the Internet, and related technologies more secure. As the national intelligence institution's effort, cyber counter-intelligence is measures to identify, penetrate, or neutralize foreign operations that use cyber means as the primary tradecraft methodology, as well as foreign intelligence service collection efforts that use traditional methods to gauge cyber capabilities and intentions. However one of the hardest issues in cyber counterintelligence is the problem of "Attribution". Unlike conventional warfare, figuring out who is behind an attack can be very difficult, even though the Defense Secretary Leon Panetta has claimed that the United States has the capability to trace attacks back to their sources and hold the attackers "accountable". Considering all these cyber security problems, this paper examines closely cyber security issues through the lessons from that of U.S experience. For that purpose I review the arising cyber security issues considering changing global security environments in the 21st century and their implications to the reshaping the government system. For that purpose this study mainly deals with and emphasis the cyber security issues as one of the growing national security threats. This article also reviews what our intelligence and security Agencies should do among the transforming cyber space. At any rate, despite of all hot debates about the various legality and human rights issues derived from the cyber space and intelligence service activity, the national security should be secured. Therefore, this paper suggests that one of the most important and immediate step is to understanding the legal ideology of national security and national intelligence.

• Proceedings of the Korea Water Resources Association Conference
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• 2015.05a
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• pp.237-237
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• 2015

The district of Marlborough has had more than its share of river management projects over the past 150 years, each one uniquely affecting the geomorphology and flood hazard of the Wairau Plains. A major early project was to block the Opawa distributary channel at Conders Bend. The Opawa distributary channel took a third and more of Wairau River floodwaters and was a major increasing threat to Blenheim. The blocking of the Opawa required the Wairau and Lower Wairau rivers to carry greater flood flows more often. Consequently the Lower Wairau River was breaking out of its stopbanks approximately every seven years. The idea of diverting flood waters at Tuamarina by providing a direct diversion to the sea through the beach ridges was conceptualised back around the 1920s however, limits on resources and machinery meant the mission of excavating this diversion didn't become feasible until the 1960s. In 1964 a 10 m wide pilot channel was cut from the sea to Tuamarina with an initial capacity of $700m^3/s$. It was expected that floods would eventually scour this 'Wairau Diversion' to its design channel width of 150 m. This did take many more years than initially thought but after approximately 50 years with a little mechanical assistance the Wairau Diversion reached an adequate capacity. Using the power of the river to erode the channel out to its design width and depth was a brilliant idea that saved many thousands of dollars in construction costs and it is somewhat ironic that it is that very same concept that is now being used to deal with the aggradation problem that the Wairau Diversion has caused. The introduction of the Wairau Diversion did provide some flood relief to the lower reaches of the river but unfortunately as the Diversion channel was eroding and enlarging the Lower Wairau River was aggrading and reducing in capacity due to its inability to pass its sediment load with reduced flood flows. It is estimated that approximately $2,000,000m^3$ of sediment was deposited on the bed of the Lower Wairau River in the time between the Diversion's introduction in 1964 and 2010, raising the Lower Wairau's bed upwards of 1.5m in some locations. A numerical morphological model (MIKE-11 ST) was used to assess a number of options which led to the decision and resource consent to construct an erodible (fuse plug) bank at the head of the Wairau Diversion to divert more frequent scouring-flows ($+400m^3/s$)down the Lower Wairau River. Full control gates were ruled out on the grounds of expense. The initial construction of the erodible bank followed in late 2009 with the bank's level at the fuse location set to overtop and begin washing out at a combined Wairau flow of $1,400m^3/s$ which avoids berm flooding in the Lower Wairau. In the three years since the erodible bank was first constructed the Wairau River has sustained 14 events with recorded flows at Tuamarina above $1,000m^3/s$ and three of events in excess of $2,500m^3/s$. These freshes and floods have resulted in washout and rebuild of the erodible bank eight times with a combined rebuild expenditure of $80,000. Marlborough District Council's Rivers & Drainage Department maintains a regular monitoring program for the bed of the Lower Wairau River, which consists of recurrently surveying a series of standard cross sections and estimating the mean bed level (MBL) at each section as well as an overall MBL change over time. A survey was carried out just prior to the installation of the erodible bank and another survey was carried out earlier this year. The results from this latest survey show for the first time since construction of the Wairau Diversion the Lower Wairau River is enlarging. It is estimated that the entire bed of the Lower Wairau has eroded down by an overall average of 60 mm since the introduction of the erodible bank which equates to a total volume of $260,000m^3$. At a cost of $$0.30/m^3$ this represents excellent value compared to mechanical dredging which would likely be in excess of $$10/m^3$. This confirms that the idea of using the river to enlarge the channel is again working for the Wairau River system and that in time nature's "excavator" will provide a channel capacity that will continue to meet design requirements.

• Journal of National Security and Military Science
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• s.8
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• pp.49-168
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• 2010

Just before the Korean War, the total number of the North Korean troops was 198,380, while that of the ROK(Republic of Korea) army troops 105,752. That is, the total number of the ROK army troops at that time was 53.3% of the total number of the North Korean army. As of December 2008, the total number of the North Korean troops is estimated to be 1,190,000, while that of the ROK troops is 655,000, so the ROK army maintains 55.04% of the total number of the North Korean troops. If the ROK army continues to reduce its troops according to [Military Reform Plan 2020], the total number of its troops will be 517,000 m 2020. If North Korea maintains the current status(l,190,000 troops), the number of the ROK troops will be 43.4% of the North Korean army. In terms of units, just before the Korean War, the number of the ROK army divisions and regiments was 80% and 44.8% of North Korean army. As of December 2008, North Korea maintains 86 divisions and 69 regiments. Compared to the North Korean army, the ROK army maintains 46 Divisions (53.4% of North Korean army) and 15 regiments (21.3% of North Korean army). If the ROK army continue to reduce the military units according to [Military Reform Plan 2020], the number of ROK army divisions will be 28(13 Active Division, 4 Mobilization Divisions and 11 Local Reserve Divisions), while that of the North Korean army will be 86 in 2020. In that case, the number of divisions of the ROK army will be 32.5% of North Korean army. During the Korean war, North Korea suddenly invaded the Republic of Korea and occupied its capital 3 days after the war began. At that time, the ROK army maintained 80% of army divisions, compared to the North Korean army. The lesson to be learned from this is that, if the ROK army is forced to disperse its divisions because of the simultaneous invasion of North Korea and attack of guerrillas in home front areas, the Republic of Korea can be in a serious military danger, even though it maintains 80% of military divisions of North Korea. If the ROK army promotes the plans in [Military Reform Plan 2020], the number of military units of the ROK army will be 32.5% of that of the North Korean army. This ratio is 2.4 times lower than that of the time when the Korean war began, and in this case, 90% of total military power should be placed in the DMZ area. If 90% of military power is placed in the DMZ area, few troops will be left for the defense of home front. In addition, if the ROK army continues to reduce the troops, it can allow North Korea to have asymmetrical superiority in military force and it will eventually exert negative influence on the stability and peace of the Korean peninsular. On the other hand, it should be reminded that, during the Korean War, the Republic of Korea was attacked by North Korea, though it kept 53.3% of troops, compared to North Korea. It should also be reminded that, as of 2008, the ROK army is defending its territory with the troops 55.04% of North Korea. Moreover, the national defense is assisted by 25,120 troops of the US Forces in Korea. In case the total number of the ROK troops falls below 43.4% of the North Korean army, it may cause social unrest about the national security and may lead North Korea's misjudgement. Besides, according to Lanchester strategy, the party with weaker military power (60% compared to the party with stronger military power) has the 4.1% of winning possibility. Therefore, if we consider the fact that the total number of the ROK army troops is 55.04% of that of the North Korean army, the winning possibility of the ROK army is not higher than 4.1%. If the total number of ROK troops is reduced to 43.4% of that of North Korea, the winning possibility will be lower and the military operations will be in critically difficult situation. [Military Reform Plan 2020] rums at the reduction of troops and units of the ground forces under the policy of 'select few'. However, the problem is that the financial support to achieve this goal is not secured. Therefore, the promotion of [Military Reform Plan 2020] may cause the weakening of military defence power in 2020. Some advanced countries such as Japan, UK, Germany, and France have promoted the policy of 'select few'. However, what is to be noted is that the national security situation of those countries is much different from that of Korea. With the collapse of the Soviet Unions and European communist countries, the military threat of those European advanced countries has almost disappeared. In addition, the threats those advanced countries are facing are not wars in national level, but terrorism in international level. To cope with the threats like terrorism, large scaled army trops would not be necessary. So those advanced European countries can promote the policy of 'select few'. In line with this, those European countries put their focuses on the development of military sections that deal with non-military operations and protection from unspecified enemies. That is, those countries are promoting the policy of 'select few', because they found that the policy is suitable for their national security environment. Moreover, since they are pursuing common interest under the European Union(EU) and they can form an allied force under NATO, it is natural that they are pursing the 'select few' policy. At present, NATO maintains the larger number of troops(2,446,000) than Russia(l,027,000) to prepare for the potential threat of Russia. The situation of japan is also much different from that of Korea. As a country composed of islands, its prime military focus is put on the maritime defense. Accordingly, the development of ground force is given secondary focus. The japanese government promotes the policy to develop technology-concentrated small size navy and air-forces, instead of maintaining large-scaled ground force. In addition, because of the 'Peace Constitution' that was enacted just after the end of World War II, japan cannot maintain troops more than 240,000. With the limited number of troops (240,000), japan has no choice but to promote the policy of 'select few'. However, the situation of Korea is much different from the situations of those countries. The Republic of Korea is facing the threat of the North Korean Army that aims at keeping a large-scale military force. In addition, the countries surrounding Korea are also super powers containing strong military forces. Therefore, to cope with the actual threat of present and unspecified threat of future, the importance of maintaining a carefully calculated large-scale military force cannot be denied. Furthermore, when considering the fact that Korea is in a peninsular, the Republic of Korea must take it into consideration the tradition of continental countries' to maintain large-scale military powers. Since the Korean War, the ROK army has developed the technology-force combined military system, maintaining proper number of troops and units and pursuing 'select few' policy at the same time. This has been promoted with the consideration of military situation in the Koran peninsular and the cooperation of ROK-US combined forces. This kind of unique military system that cannot be found in other countries can be said to be an insightful one for the preparation for the actual threat of North Korea and the conflicts between continental countries and maritime countries. In addition, this kind of technology-force combined military system has enabled us to keep peace in Korea. Therefore, it would be desirable to maintain this technology-force combined military system until the reunification of the Korean peninsular. Furthermore, it is to be pointed out that blindly following the 'select few' policy of advanced countries is not a good option, because it is ignoring the military strategic situation of the Korean peninsular. If the Republic of Korea pursues the reduction of troops and units radically without consideration of the threat of North Korea and surrounding countries, it could be a significant strategic mistake. In addition, the ROK army should keep an eye on the fact the European advanced countries and Japan that are not facing direct military threats are spending more defense expenditures than Korea. If the ROK army reduces military power without proper alternatives, it would exert a negative effect on the stable economic development of Korea and peaceful reunification of the Korean peninsular. Therefore, the desirable option would be to focus on the development of quality of forces, maintaining proper size and number of troops and units under the technology-force combined military system. The tableau above shows that the advanced countries like the UK, Germany, Italy, and Austria spend more defense expenditure per person than the Republic of Korea, although they do not face actual military threats, and that they keep achieving better economic progress than the countries that spend less defense expenditure. Therefore, it would be necessary to adopt the merits of the defense systems of those advanced countries. As we have examined, it would be desirable to maintain the current size and number of troops and units, to promote 'select few' policy with increased defense expenditure, and to strengthen the technology-force combined military system. On the basis of firm national security, the Republic of Korea can develop efficient policies for reunification and prosperity, and jump into the status of advanced countries. Therefore, the plans to reduce troops and units in [Military Reform Plan 2020] should be reexamined. If it is difficult for the ROK army to maintain its size of 655,000 troops because of low birth rate, the plans to establish the prompt mobilization force or to adopt drafting system should be considered for the maintenance of proper number of troops and units. From now on, the Republic of Korean government should develop plans to keep peace as well as to prepare unexpected changes in the Korean peninsular. For the achievement of these missions, some options can be considered. The first one is to maintain the same size of military troops and units as North Korea. The second one is to maintain the same level of military power as North Korea in terms of military force index. The third one is to maintain the same level of military power as North Korea, with the combination of the prompt mobilization force and the troops in active service under the system of technology-force combined military system. At present, it would be not possible for the ROK army to maintain such a large-size military force as North Korea (1,190,000 troops and 86 units). So it would be rational to maintain almost the same level of military force as North Korea with the combination of the troops on the active list and the prompt mobilization forces. In other words, with the combination of the troops in active service (60%) and the prompt mobilization force (40%), the ROK army should develop the strategies to harmonize technology and forces. The Korean government should also be prepared for the strategic flexibility of USFK, the possibility of American policy change about the location of foreign army, radical unexpected changes in North Korea, the emergence of potential threat, surrounding countries' demand for Korean force for the maintenance of regional stability, and demand for international cooperation against terrorism. For this, it is necessary to develop new approaches toward the proper number and size of troops and units. For instance, to prepare for radical unexpected political or military changes in North Korea, the Republic of Korea should have plans to protect a large number of refugees, to control arms and people, to maintain social security, and to keep orders in North Korea. From the experiences of other countries, it is estimated that 115,000 to 230,000 troops, plus ten thousands of police are required to stabilize the North Korean society, in the case radical unexpected military or political change happens in North Korea. In addition, if the Republic of Korea should perform the release of hostages, control of mass destruction weapons, and suppress the internal wars in North Korea, it should send 460,000 troops to North Korea. Moreover, if the Republic of Korea wants to stop the attack of North Korea and flow of refugees in DMZ area, at least 600,000 troops would be required. In sum, even if the ROK army maintains 600,000 troops, it may need additional 460,000 troops to prepare for unexpected radical changes in North Korea. For this, it is necessary to establish the prompt mobilization force whose size and number are almost the same as the troops in active service. In case the ROK army keeps 650,000 troops, the proper number of the prompt mobilization force would be 460,000 to 500,000.