• 방사성폐기물학회지
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• 제15권1호
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• pp.45-63
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• 2017

한국의 가장 오래된 상업 원전인 고리 1호기가 2017년에 해체가 이루어질 예정이다. 원전 해체 폐기물의 적절한 처리는 효율적인 원전해체에 있어 중요한 역할을 할 것이다. 특히, 저준위 또는 오염되지 않은 금속폐기물의 재활용은 폐기물 발생 저감은 물론 처분장의 공간을 절약하는데 기여할 것이다. 본 논문은 재활용 시스템의 개념설계와 정의된 업무 흐름에서 발생하는 피폭 선량을 평가하는데 그 목적이 있다. 작업의 흐름과 운전 개념을 정립하기 위해 다양한 형태의 다이어그램을 설계하였다. 선량평가에 필요한 시나리오는 개념설계를 기반으로 선정되었으며, RESRAD-RECYCLE을 이용하여 선량을 평가하였다. 이를 통하여, 결정적 시나리오 선별, 핵종 특성 및 핵종 분배가 선량에 미치는 영향을 분석하였다. 더 나아가, 선량분석은 피폭 시나리오에 대한 대체 방안 수립, 필요한 제염 및 방사선방어 프로세스 그리고 허용 방사능 검토의 정보를 제공하는데 사용 될 수 있을 것이다.

• 한국환경복원기술학회지
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• 제19권6호
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• pp.19-30
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• 2016

The projection of climate-related range shift is critical information for conservation planning of Korean fir (Abies koreana E. H. Wilson). We first modeled the distribution of Korean fir under current climate condition using five single-model species distribution models (SDMs) and the pre-evaluation weighted ensemble method and then predicted the distributions under future climate conditions projected with HadGEM2-AO under four $CO_2$ emission scenarios, the Representative Concentration Pathways (RCP) 2.6, 4.5, 6.0 and 8.5. We also investigated the predictive uncertainty stemming from five individual algorithms and four $CO_2$ emission scenarios for better interpretation of SDM projections. Five individual algorithms were Generalized linear model (GLM), Generalized additive model (GAM), Multivariate adaptive regression splines (MARS), Generalized boosted model (GBM) and Random forest (RF). The results showed high variations of model performances among individual SDMs and the wide range of diverging predictions of future distributions of Korean fir in response to RCPs. The ensemble model presented the highest predictive accuracy (TSS = 0.97, AUC = 0.99) and predicted that the climate habitat suitability of Korean fir would increase under climate changes. Accordingly, the fir distribution could expand under future climate conditions. Increasing precipitation may account for increases in the distribution of Korean fir. Increasing precipitation compensates the negative effects of increasing temperature. However, the future distribution of Korean fir is also affected by other ecological processes, such as interactions with co-existing species, adaptation and dispersal limitation, and other environmental factors, such as extreme weather events and land-use changes. Therefore, we need further ecological research and to develop mechanistic and process-based distribution models for improving the predictive accuracy.

• KIEAE Journal
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• 제14권1호
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• pp.131-138
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• 2014

The recent interests in securing alternative resource have increased due to environmental issues and exhaustion of natural resources. The government notices production of recycled aggregate using waste concrete as the substitute of the natural aggregate. However, It's important to reduce environmental burden being inevitably made in the process producing recycled aggregate. In this study, the scenarios of transportation distance were set in the transportation phase of production of recycled aggregate. In addition, The possibility of emissions and reduction of carbon dioxide were studied depending on the scenarios. For this study, data about a amount of waste concrete, transportation distance, kind of vehicle, the number of required vehicle, fuel efficiency of vehicle and etc were gathered from 15 companies of intermediate treatment and 60 constructions sites located in Daegu city and Kyungpook area. Based on those data, fuel consumptions and $CO_2$ emissions according to the transportation scheme of waste concrete were calculated. As a result of the study, the emission of carbon dioxide was possible to be reduced by 27.8~75.4% depending on the scenarios of transportation distance.

• 한국재난정보학회 논문집
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• 제9권4호
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• pp.521-531
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• 2013

재난 대비 임시거주시스템 활용을 위한 비상대응 시나리오 설계를 통하여 신속한 비상사고 유형 파악과 그에 따른 적절한 비상대응절차의 적용은 사고 피해를 최소화하기 위하여 매우 중요하다. 따라서 본 연구에서는 재난 발생 시 예상되는 비상사고의 잠재 가능성을 분석하여 발생 가능한 비상사고 시나리오를 도출하였고 이러한 재난 대비 임시거주 비상 시나리오를 기본으로 하여 시나리오에 따른 비상대응 및 복구 방안을 도출 하였다. 또한 비상대응시나리오의 각 이벤트별로 비상대응 시 취해져야할 비상대응에 필요한 요구사항을 행동 주체별 대응 단계별로 정의하였다. 또한 비상대응 주체별 단계별 시나리오 구성을 통해 재난 발생 시 신속하고 종합적인 비상대응이 이루어 질 수 있는 기반을 마련하였다.

• 자원ㆍ환경경제연구
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• 제11권2호
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• pp.211-231
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• 2002

This paper summarizes the results of a study that assess how a demand side management (DSM) system addresses key economic and environmental challenges facing in the Korean natural gas sector considering; ${\bullet}$ high discrepancies of seasonal consumption volume and of load factor in unmatured domestic LNG market, ${\bullet}$ unfavorable and volatile international LNG market, imposing with the contestable "take-or-pay" contract terms, ${\bullet}$ low profile of LNG and existence of market barriers against an optimal fuel mix status in the industrial energy sector. A particular focus of this study is to establish an 'extended' DSM system in the unmatured gas market, especially in industry sector, that could play a key role to assure an optimum fuel mix scheme. Under the concept of 'extended' DSM, a system dynamics modeling approach has been introduced to explore the option to maximize economic benefits in terms of the national energy system optimization, entailing different ways of commitments accounting for different DSM measures and time delay scenarios. The study concludes that policy options exist that can reduce inefficiencies in gas industry and end-use system at no net costs to national economy. The most scenarios find that, by the year 2015, it is possible to develop a substantial potential of increased industrial gas end-uses under more reliable and stable load patterns. Assessment of sensitivity analysis suggests that time delay factor, in formulating DSM scenarios, plays a key role to overcome various market barriers in domestic LNG market and provides a strong justification for the policy portfolios 'just in time' (time accurateness), which eventually contribute to establish an optimum fuel mix strategy. The study indicates also the needs of advanced studies based on SD approach to articulate uncertainty in unmatured energy market analysis, including gas.

• 국제지역연구
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• 제17권4호
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• pp.1-21
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• 2013

본 논문에서는 ASEAN의 10개 회원국, 한국, 중국, 일본, 호주, 뉴질랜드, 인도 등 16개국으로 구성된 역내포괄적경제동반자협정(RCEP)가 RCEP의 회원국 경제와 전세계 경제에 어떠한 영향을 미치게 될 것인가를 다(多)지역 다(多)산업 연산일반균형(CGE)모형을 이용하여 정량적으로 분석하였다. Baseline 시나리오를 바탕으로 RCEP 회원국 구성의 특성에 입각하여 단계별 3가지 정책시나리오, 즉 한-중-일FTA(시나리오 1), ASEAN+3 FTA(시나리오 2), RCEP(시나리오 3)를 설정하였다. 3가지 정책 시나리오의 영향을 실질GDP, 후생수준의 지표로서 등가변환, 수출 수입물량, 국제수지, 교역조건 등 거시경제적 변수에 미치는 영향으로 제시하였다. 본 연구의 주요 결과를 보면, RCEP를 통해 모든 RCEP 회원국의 실질GDP가 증가할 것으로 전망되며 특히 한국의 실질GDP는 모든 RCEP회원국 중 가장 많이(2.43%) 증가할 것으로 예측되었다. 이는 한국이 RCEP 추진에 보다 적극적인 역할을 수행할 만한 경제적 이점이 있음을 시사하는 것이라고 할 수 있다.

• 한국물환경학회지
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• 제27권3호
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• pp.273-285
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• 2011

This study describes the modeling of climate change impact on runoff across southeast Korea using a conceptual rainfall-runoff model TANK and assesses the results using the concept of environmental flows developed by International Water Management Institute. The future climate time series is obtained by scaling the historical series, informed by 4 global climate models and 3 greenhouse gas emission scenarios, to reflect a $4.0^{\circ}C$ increase at most in average surface air temperature and 31.7% increase at most in annual precipitation, using the spatio-temporal changing factor method that considers changes in the future mean seasonal rainfall and potential evapotranspiration as well as in the daily rainfall distribution. Although the simulation results from different global circulation models and greenhouse emission scenarios indicate different responses in flows to the climate change, the majority of the modeling results show that there will be more runoff in southeast Korea in the future. However, there is substantial uncertainty, with the results ranging from a 5.82% decrease to a 48.15% increase in the mean annual runoff averaged across the study area according to the corresponding climate change scenarios. We then assess the hydrologic perturbations based on the comparison between present and future flow duration curves suggested by IMWI. As a result, the effect of hydrologic perturbation on aquatic ecosystems may be significant at several locations of the Nakdong river main stream in dry season.

• International Journal of Internet, Broadcasting and Communication
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• 제16권2호
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• pp.237-246
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• 2024

In recent years, the frequent occurrence of fire accidents in university libraries has posed significant threats to the safety of students' lives and property, alongside negative social impacts. Accurately analyzing the factors affecting evacuation during library fires and proposing optimized measures for safe evacuation is thus crucial. This paper utilizes a specific university library as a case study, simulating fire evacuation scenarios using the Pathfinder software, to assess and validate evacuation strategies and propose relevant optimizations. Pathfinder, developed by Thunderhead Engineering in the United States, is an intuitive and straightforward personnel emergency evacuation assessment system, offering advanced visualization interfaces and 3D animation effects. This study aims to construct evacuation models and perform simulation analysis for the selected university library using Pathfinder. The library's structural layout, people flow characteristics, and the nature of fire and smoke spread are considered in the analysis. Additionally, evacuation scenarios involving different fire outbreak locations and the status of emergency exits are examined. The findings underscore the importance of effective evacuation in fire situations, highlighting how environmental conditions, individual characteristics, and behavioral patterns significantly influence evacuation efficiency. Through these investigations, the study enhances understanding and optimization of evacuation strategies in fire scenarios, thereby improving safety and efficiency. The research not only provides concrete and practical guidelines for building design, management, and emergency response planning in libraries but also offers valuable insights for the design and management of effective evacuation systems in buildings, crucial for ensuring occupant safety and minimizing loss of life in potential hazard situations

• 한국철도학회:학술대회논문집
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• 한국철도학회 2011년도 춘계학술대회 논문집
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• pp.521-527
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• 2011

Korea announced GHG reduction goal, 30% reduction compare with 2020 BAU and reduction target for each industry sector is planning. Transportation sector also trying to make effective technical and political counterplan of allocated GHG reduction target such as material lightening, energy efficiency improvement and Modal shift technology and so on. Modal Shift is shifting low energy efficiency vehicle to high energy efficiency vehicle which is economically meaningful under current market conditions. We can get not only energy efficiency improvement but also GHG reduction effect through modal shift. Modal Shift is effectively applying and studied in logistics field in Europe and Japan and one of the Indian companies has been registered CDM project activity involving modal shift from roadways to railways for finished goods. In this study, the scenarios are developed with detail modal shift ratio and fuel type base on state of road and rail use and GHG emission factor for each fuel type from MLTM. This result can be used as basic information to improve policies and promote increasing use of train which is more environment friendly transportation vehicle.

• 한국농공학회논문집
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• 제56권4호
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• pp.59-68
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• 2014

Climate change influences multiple environmental aspects, certain of which are specifically related to agricultural water resources such as water supply, water management, droughts and floods. Understanding the impact of climate change on reservoirs in relation to the passage of time is an important component of water resource management for stable water supply maintenance. Changes on rainfall and hydrologic patterns due to climate change can increases the occurrence of reservoir water shortage and affect the future availability of agricultural water resources. It is a main concern for sustainable development in agricultural water resources management to evaluate adaptation capability of water supply under the future climate conditions. The purpose of this study is to predict the sustainability of agricultural water demand and supply under future climate change by applying an irrigation vulnerability assessment model to investigate evidence of climate change occurrences at a local scale with respect to potential water supply capacity and irrigation water requirement. Thus, it is a recommended practice in the development of water supply management strategies on reservoir operation under climate change.